So is Montgomery an inefficient back?

[dave99]

DBB has the facts and figures.
https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-i ... montgomery
If metrics are going to become more important this could be an issue

[Otis Day]

I am not sure what back would be efficient behind that OL . How many times was he hit in the backfield? How many times did his OL get knocked back into him?

Is he a gamebreaker? No. Can he be a damn good RB in this league? Hell yes.

[Z Bear]

Rush yards over expectation/carry (RYOE/carry)

I would like to know how that was tabulated. Seems very strange to have YAC at 1.6, 2.4, and 1.9 but negative RYOE. You would think those two numbers would coincide with each other.

[The Cooler King]

I'm not super high on Montgomery.

But I do think he's a decent back worth keeping this year. Then let him walk.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Herbert on Monty are keepers for me. Never considered anything else unless some team offered us an incredible trade

[The Marshall Plan]

Monty makes chicken salad out of chicken shit.

No OL.
McNagy play calling.
No consistent passing attack to keep the defense honest.

I’m just happy he hasn’t demanded a trade.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

I thought this was a very interesting article - mostly because the results don't equal the eye test. My best guess about why that might be is because of how the numbers are arrived at. Basically, someone looks at where everyone is on the field at the time the RB gets the ball and then compares how each running back in the league does in the same situation.

But it's easy to see why that doesn't work well for Monty. Assume when he gets the ball there is an offensive lineman between him and a defender. Most of the time you'd expect that to go for positive yards. But we saw over and over again a lineman get beat and Monty getting immediately taken down. He's getting a bunch of negative carries, and it's not his fault. I submit that no RB is going to grade well in that situation.

[IE]

Monty is a try-hard back. He doesn't get extra yards by being elusive or great vision. He gets them through sheer will. The half-life on a guy like that is pretty short and I think he only has next year with the Bears. If he hadn't noticeably improved his speed (which is astonishing), I wouldn't be a fan. But I AM a fan and I agree with TMP that given the circumstances (Oline issues, game plans, play calling, and the offense in general) his production has been fine.

I do think that Herbert has better vision and quicker feet/cutback for outside zone running - and I'd like to see more of him next year. I like the idea of platooning backs and going with the hot hand. I don't think Monty is enough of a "threat" to dedicate the run game to him as a default. But I do think he can be really productive for at least one more year and see if you can extend him a few. If not, Herbert and some other younger guys are going to be next up. That's the position.

We do know that they're going to be looking for a faster, home run hit threat receiving back. One guy that might be good as a transitional pickup could be Jerick McKinnon, who can be gotten for $1MM. Poles may have played a role in bringing him to KC. I kind of like him better than Ty Montgomery because he's more elusive and seems to have a lot left in the tank. I'd love a rotation of Monty, Juice and McKinnon.

[HurricaneBear]

Monty is a try-hard back. He doesn't get extra yards by being elusive or great vision. He gets them through sheer will. The half-life on a guy like that is pretty short and I think he only has next year with the Bears. If he hadn't noticeably improved his speed (which is astonishing), I wouldn't be a fan. But I AM a fan and I agree with TMP that given the circumstances (Oline issues, game plans, play calling, and the offense in general) his production has been fine.

I do think that Herbert has better vision and quicker feet/cutback for outside zone running - and I'd like to see more of him next year. I like the idea of platooning backs and going with the hot hand. I don't think Monty is enough of a "threat" to dedicate the run game to him as a default. But I do think he can be really productive for at least one more year and see if you can extend him a few. If not, Herbert and some other younger guys are going to be next up. That's the position.

This is where I fall also. Monty I like, but if we use him for his rookie contract and move on I won't mind at all. I wouldn't move on from him before that.

[Arkansasbear]

Monty is a try-hard back. He doesn't get extra yards by being elusive or great vision. He gets them through sheer will. The half-life on a guy like that is pretty short and I think he only has next year with the Bears. If he hadn't noticeably improved his speed (which is astonishing), I wouldn't be a fan. But I AM a fan and I agree with TMP that given the circumstances (Oline issues, game plans, play calling, and the offense in general) his production has been fine.

I do think that Herbert has better vision and quicker feet/cutback for outside zone running - and I'd like to see more of him next year. I like the idea of platooning backs and going with the hot hand. I don't think Monty is enough of a "threat" to dedicate the run game to him as a default. But I do think he can be really productive for at least one more year and see if you can extend him a few. If not, Herbert and some other younger guys are going to be next up. That's the position.

This is where I fall also. Monty I like, but if we use him for his rookie contract and move on I won't mind at all. I wouldn't move on from him before that.

He is clearly more that JAG but he is not an elite game changer at RB the way someone like Cook can be.

He's clearly not on the "untouchable" list when it comes to be traded, but what we would need to get back for him IMO would never be offered (I'm saying he can't be let go for less than a mid second round pick and I'd still have to think about it).

After this year, I"m not sure if a contract can be worked out for him. Like all spots, you can't pay top money for a "good player." I'm not enough of salary/cap guy to know what the Bears should have as their highest offer. What I'd like to see is what others have pointed to - a system where he and Herbert share the load and are both effective. This would also serve to drive down the offers he would get on the open market and hopefully allow us to bring him back at a rate that is good for the team.

[The Cooler King]

I feel like evaluating Montgomery is almost a form of survivorship bias (or maybe some other name for this type of bias)

We love how he gets second chances and grinds extra yards. That's a great RB trait!

And we get to see it a lot. Wait, why do we see it a lot? Okay maybe it is a O line issue. But it probably also is somewhat related to him not being fast enough to avoid contact that others do.

While I'm skeptical of the ability for an algorithm to hypothesize yards over expected, there is part of me that feels like this could be a "analytics challenge what we see" area. We really have to focus in on Montgomery to see if he's just not getting to his spots fast enough so his constant tackle breaking is more out of necessity than skill in picking up earned extra yards.

[IE]

I also think the "Explosive Run" stats sort of tell the tale on Monty. He DID really improve his long speed. Look at his improvement on explosive plays across 3 years - huge improvement. But what that did was bring his numbers closer to average. He's still not even average and most backs if they get 20-30 carries will pop a long one. It is his "try hard" and ability to win a bit of extra yardage that endears him to fans and sort of balances the lack of explosion.

I think it is clear he's in his last year as the primary back for the Bears. Even if they CAN re-sign him it seems like the new regime will not want to.

[IE]

While I'm skeptical of the ability for an algorithm to hypothesize yards over expected, there is part of me that feels like this could be a "analytics challenge what we see" area. We really have to focus in on Montgomery to see if he's just not getting to his spots fast enough so his constant tackle breaking is more out of necessity than skill in picking up earned extra yards.

I share your skepticism about the "Expected Yards" measurement as an isolated variable. If you play around with it a bit, it produces names that mostly get head-nods about whether they're really good/explosive or not. Sort of passes the smell test initially.

But if you really look some of those names sort of bounce around across years (Taylor, Jones, Connor, for example). And some guys pop for a year and then go away. Which to me means the positioning represents the context of their games and teams ... so it really isn't isolating player capability and situations like it claims to, or should. If it was really isolating, there should produce a few surprises. IMO it doesn't.

[wab]

I like Monty, I really do... but I don't know exactly how much he's worth.

[Yogi da Bear]

Bunch of Bullshit:

How can you break tackles but not pick up YAC? Keep in mind Montgomery is not all that fast to begin with. Breaking tackles likely slows him down even more, allowing other defenders to catch up and bring him down without him gaining as many extra yards as you would hope.

You know how you break tackles without picking up extra yards? It's simple. Our OL was being beaten at multiple points! Monty breaks a tackle and then is immediately again. And then he carries that guy for a few yards. These fucking stats are stupid.

Let's look at the eye test:



Yes, I understand that these are highlights, but there sure are a lot of them. They also show how he breaks tackles and is immediately hit by another defender. It's not really because he's slowed down so much as the other defender wasn't blocked.

And you know what you don't see? How many times he's hit by multiple guys as soon as he gets the ball. Some of his best runs are win he barely makes it back to the LOS.

You know what else you don't see? You don't see an offense that allows a RB to get into a rhythm. You don't see how he makes a great run and is immediately taken out of the game.

David Montgomery is a Top 5 running back in the league.

[southdakbearfan]

I actually think Monty can be a special back, but he has to be fed the ball. Nagy's herky jerky playcalling was all about fooling everyone and not beating them. Minimal passing threat, average to bad lineman, screwed up rhythm to the offense. How could any analysis of his play show anything but middling.

I would venture the best backs in the league would put up similar numbers if they were swapped.

He spent 2 years watching a midget and WR get carries that should have been his to wear a defense down. Midget up the gut, Special WR running play that is only ran when CPatt was in, oh here is your 1st down carry monty that everyone knows is coming, make the best of it and be you even if 2 of the 5 lineman get beat on the play.

[crueltyabc]

I like Monty but hope his heroics won’t be necessary for much longer. I’m hoping Poles builds a team that doesn’t require a HB breaking ten tackles for four yards. A combination of improve blocking and a respectable passing game should make a big second contract unnecesssry. I hope Fields can fill any leadership or morale void

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I've noticed that a lot of members on this board frequently underestimate contracts players will command in free agency, but this projection from spotrac was an eye-opener:

Chicago Bears
RB1: 1 YR, $965K | RB2: 2 YRS, $9.75M
David Montgomery enters the offseason as a prominent extension candidate, currently valuing to a 4 year, $51M contract. A healthy Tarik Cohen should rejoin this rotation as the #2 back, but his recovery from a torn ACL has been slow going thus far. $2.5M of Cohen’s 2022 salary is guaranteed for injury, and will become fully guaranteed in March.

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/nf ... acks-1356/

I'm a big fan of Monty. He's easily the best player on the offense at the moment. I think he's far better than his statistics and, like Howard before him, has been massively hampered by Nagy and his woeful scheme plus a lacklustre O-line. His under-utilisation in the passing game, the very reason he was brought in to replace Howard, has been baffling. But I don't see how in the world the Bears could justify forking out anything like $12.75m on him based on what he has produced thus far. The value just isn't there for RBs as it is. He'd have to really light it up under Eberflus and Getsy next season to convince me that he's worth paying close to even $10m a year to be honest.

I really hope the Bears do hang on to him and he goes on to become the next in the long line of great Bears RBs, but any contract has to be commensurate with production and positional value. This spotrac figure strikes me as absurd.

[Richie]

I am not sure what back would be efficient behind that OL . How many times was he hit in the backfield? How many times did his OL get knocked back into him?

Is he a gamebreaker? No. Can he be a damn good RB in this league? Hell yes.

That is addressed and takes up the bulk of the article. Metrics which take that into account point towards him being a below average runner.

[Richie]

I've noticed that a lot of members on this board frequently underestimate contracts players will command in free agency, but this projection from spotrac was an eye-opener:

Chicago Bears
RB1: 1 YR, $965K | RB2: 2 YRS, $9.75M
David Montgomery enters the offseason as a prominent extension candidate, currently valuing to a 4 year, $51M contract. A healthy Tarik Cohen should rejoin this rotation as the #2 back, but his recovery from a torn ACL has been slow going thus far. $2.5M of Cohen’s 2022 salary is guaranteed for injury, and will become fully guaranteed in March.

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/nf ... acks-1356/

I'm a big fan of Monty. He's easily the best player on the offense at the moment. I think he's far better than his statistics and, like Howard before him, has been massively hampered by Nagy and his woeful scheme plus a lacklustre O-line. His under-utilisation in the passing game, the very reason he was brought in to replace Howard, has been baffling. But I don't see how in the world the Bears could justify forking out anything like $12.75m on him based on what he has produced thus far. The value just isn't there for RBs as it is. He'd have to really light it up under Eberflus and Getsy next season to convince me that he's worth paying close to even $10m a year to be honest.

I really hope the Bears do hang on to him and he goes on to become the next in the long line of great Bears RBs, but any contract has to be commensurate with production and positional value. This spotrac figure strikes me as absurd.

I don't care what Monty or any RB is valued at.

You never, EVER pay/extend them beyond a rookie deal. Not a one. Not a single damn one. Next body up. Rinse and repeat. Don't waste your cash on the 22nd most important position on the field. Not only that, the #1 position for immediate and fast career drop offs.

[Richie]

Bunch of Bullshit:

How can you break tackles but not pick up YAC? Keep in mind Montgomery is not all that fast to begin with. Breaking tackles likely slows him down even more, allowing other defenders to catch up and bring him down without him gaining as many extra yards as you would hope.

You know how you break tackles without picking up extra yards? It's simple. Our OL was being beaten at multiple points! Monty breaks a tackle and then is immediately again. And then he carries that guy for a few yards. These fucking stats are stupid.

Let's look at the eye test:



Yes, I understand that these are highlights, but there sure are a lot of them. They also show how he breaks tackles and is immediately hit by another defender. It's not really because he's slowed down so much as the other defender wasn't blocked.

And you know what you don't see? How many times he's hit by multiple guys as soon as he gets the ball. Some of his best runs are win he barely makes it back to the LOS.

You know what else you don't see? You don't see an offense that allows a RB to get into a rhythm. You don't see how he makes a great run and is immediately taken out of the game.

David Montgomery is a Top 5 running back in the league.

A highlight reel? Seriously? If I showed you a lowlight reel, would that convince you he's a terrible back? Stop...

Again, how does a RB great at breaking tackles (as you claim) fair poorly in yards after contact?

Oh, and why did Khalil Herbert average over 5 YPC in each of his starts? If Monty is capable of being "special". How is a 3rd string rookie putting him to shame?

Also, was our run blocking even that bad? Overall, the unit improved as the season went on as a whole. They finished closer to league average, by most metrics.

[Richie]

I feel like evaluating Montgomery is almost a form of survivorship bias (or maybe some other name for this type of bias)

We love how he gets second chances and grinds extra yards. That's a great RB trait!

And we get to see it a lot. Wait, why do we see it a lot? Okay maybe it is a O line issue. But it probably also is somewhat related to him not being fast enough to avoid contact that others do.

While I'm skeptical of the ability for an algorithm to hypothesize yards over expected, there is part of me that feels like this could be a "analytics challenge what we see" area. We really have to focus in on Montgomery to see if he's just not getting to his spots fast enough so his constant tackle breaking is more out of necessity than skill in picking up earned extra yards.

I think when a hole opens up for him and he gets into the second level. He's really good at turning a 5-6 yard gain into a 10 yard gain, if he has a head of steam. However, I also think his vision is pretty poor and he lacks agility. Which makes him a very poor back behind the LOS. We get duped by the fact that he can bury his head down and push forward for 2-3 yards. However, in many of those cases, there are backs who could use their vision/agility to change directions or bounce the run outside for a bigger gain.

[Richie]

I'm not super high on Montgomery.

But I do think he's a decent back worth keeping this year. Then let him walk.

This. I don't think he's a feature, but I think he does everything in a serviceable fashion.

I would like to see him and Herbert basically split things up. Keep each other fresh. I am more intrigued by Herbert than Monty, at this point. Herbert was far more efficient behind the exact same line and in the exact same offense in his two starts.

[Richie]

Monty makes chicken salad out of chicken shit.

Then, why are his yards after contact numbers poor?

And why did Khalil Herbert fair infinitely better in his two starts than Monty?

Monty isn't good. We all just admire his toughness and his ability to pickup a couple extra yards. That's a meatball reason to think a back is "good" though.

Monty is a huge, huge reason why this team has been at the back end of the league the past few years in terms of explosive/big plays. I think he has one long TD run in his career? Versus Houston in 2020. I can't recall a single other big play out of the guy. When this offense scores it takes them 8-9 damn minutes to engineer a TD drive. We must be last in the league at moving the chains on 1st/2nd down. It's exhausting to watch.

[The Marshall Plan]

Monty makes chicken salad out of chicken shit.

Then, why are his yards after contact numbers poor?

And why did Khalil Herbert fair infinitely better in his two starts than Monty?

Monty isn't good. We all just admire his toughness and his ability to pickup a couple extra yards. That's a meatball reason to think a back is "good" though.

Monty is a huge, huge reason why this team has been at the back end of the league the past few years in terms of explosive/big plays. I think he has one long TD run in his career? Versus Houston in 2020. I can't recall a single other big play out of the guy. When this offense scores it takes them 8-9 damn minutes to engineer a TD drive. We must be last in the league at moving the chains on 1st/2nd down. It's exhausting to watch.

Because when first contact happens at the LOS it's hard to get going. That line can't block.

Now you're right. He's NOT a home run hitter. I think part of that is the line, but he has to own some of that too. Monty doesn't have that breakaway speed. He does have some moves, but he's not that fast.

Now for Herbert? IDK. Maybe he's better. But Herbert only comes in at 212 lbs. He's not going to be The Guy for us.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Again, how does a RB great at breaking tackles (as you claim) fair poorly in yards after contact?

Perhaps because his teammates are so bad at blocking at every level that as soon as he breaks one tackle he frequently immediately gets hit again? Perhaps because far too often he gets gang tackled so can't gain any yards after contact?

Oh, and why did Khalil Herbert average over 5 YPC in each of his starts? If Monty is capable of being "special". How is a 3rd string rookie putting him to shame?

Perhaps opponent and context matter? The two games in which Herbert started and averaged over 5ypc were against Green Bay who ranked 30th in the league for opponent ypc (and a single 25 yard run boosted his ypc from 4.2ypc to 5.1ypc) and a blowout against Tampa Bay who were 21-0 up after the 1st quarter (and again a single 29 yard run boosted his ypc from 4.2ypc to 5.6ypc). Herbert also started two other games while Monty was out, averaging 4.2ypc against the Raiders and 3.1ypc against the 49ers.

Herbert did a fine job filling in and we're all pleased to have him, but to suggest that he 'faired infinitely better' and 'put Montgomery to shame' because of a couple of productive games is absurd. Monty had a big game averaging 6.75ypc against the Rams who ranked 6th for opponent ypc and are playing in the Super Bowl. Why did he fair infinitely better in that game than Herbert did in either of his? Did he put Herbert to shame? Of course not. A good game or two and a long run or two doesn't prove a thing.

Monty isn't good. We all just admire his toughness and his ability to pickup a couple extra yards. That's a meatball reason to think a back is "good" though.

I'm sorry, but you really need to watch a lot more tape if you believe Monty isn't good.

[IE]

Again, how does a RB great at breaking tackles (as you claim) fair poorly in yards after contact?

Perhaps because his teammates are so bad at blocking at every level that as soon as he breaks one tackle he frequently immediately gets hit again? Perhaps because far too often he gets gang tackled so can't gain any yards after contact?

Oh, and why did Khalil Herbert average over 5 YPC in each of his starts? If Monty is capable of being "special". How is a 3rd string rookie putting him to shame?

Perhaps opponent and context matter? The two games in which Herbert started and averaged over 5ypc were against Green Bay who ranked 30th in the league for opponent ypc (and a single 25 yard run boosted his ypc from 4.2ypc to 5.1ypc) and a blowout against Tampa Bay who were 21-0 up after the 1st quarter (and again a single 29 yard run boosted his ypc from 4.2ypc to 5.6ypc). Herbert also started two other games while Monty was out, averaging 4.2ypc against the Raiders and 3.1ypc against the 49ers.

Herbert did a fine job filling in and we're all pleased to have him, but to suggest that he 'faired infinitely better' and 'put Montgomery to shame' because of a couple of productive games is absurd. Monty had a big game averaging 6.75ypc against the Rams who ranked 6th for opponent ypc and are playing in the Super Bowl. Why did he fair infinitely better in that game than Herbert did in either of his? Did he put Herbert to shame? Of course not. A good game or two and a long run or two doesn't prove a thing.

Monty isn't good. We all just admire his toughness and his ability to pickup a couple extra yards. That's a meatball reason to think a back is "good" though.

I'm sorry, but you really need to watch a lot more tape if you believe Monty isn't good.

Like Ritchie pointed out, the article is intended to isolate the variables and judge the RBs based on their own contribution in comparable situations - removing a bad Oline and bad scheme from the discussion. So the Oline or play calls shouldn't be relevant.

But they are. They really can't successfully remove the impact of the Oline on short yardage runs where everyone knows they're running. And they can't remove the predictability of the coach. There is a big difference between measuring player location on the field and an offense doing what it is intending to be doing. So some of the stats are bad (the expected yards one isn't very good).

The explosiveness measure is more trustworthy because it favors guys that more frequently can take it to the house if they see any daylight - that is more often individual effort territory, where a guy beats the defenders to the end zone or very long runs. Monty has measurably improved on his explosiveness in the last 3 years. It was VERY bad at first, and every year he's improved. His speed coach visibly helped him. But unfortunately that has only gotten him back into a below-average range. This is a big disconnect from what Poles clearly said about wanting explosive players

Monty is probably quite a bit better than this article gives him credit for being on expected yards. But unfortunately - and again - giving him more credit just makes him closer to average in reality.

I want my team to be feared, and to win. There's not a single player I love more than that. Not even Jesper Horsted. LOL

[The Cooler King]

Like Ritchie pointed out, the article is intended to isolate the variables and judge the RBs based on their own contribution in comparable situations - removing a bad Oline and bad scheme from the discussion. So the Oline or play calls shouldn't be relevant.

But they are. They really can't successfully remove the impact of the Oline on short yardage runs where everyone knows they're running. And they can't remove the predictability of the coach. There is a big difference between measuring player location on the field and an offense doing what it is intending to be doing. So some of the stats are bad (the expected yards one isn't very good).

The explosiveness measure is more trustworthy because it favors guys that more frequently can take it to the house if they see any daylight - that is more often individual effort territory, where a guy beats the defenders to the end zone or very long runs. Monty has measurably improved on his explosiveness in the last 3 years. It was VERY bad at first, and every year he's improved. His speed coach visibly helped him. But unfortunately that has only gotten him back into a below-average range. This is a big disconnect from what Poles clearly said about wanting explosive players

Monty is probably quite a bit better than this article gives him credit for being on expected yards. But unfortunately - and again - giving him more credit just makes him closer to average in reality.

I want my team to be feared, and to win. There's not a single player I love more than that. Not even Jesper Horsted. LOL

This is a fair take. To part of the point, in reading about the methodology of the RYOE/carry is that it assumes "that as soon as the rushing play starts, every defender, regardless of the position, will focus on stopping the rusher ASAP, and every defender has a chance to do it." So that would be an area where good play calling would create an edge.

I think the explosives is key. He was not a good rookie largely due to that. And improvements make him much better. Good enough that I could see a Montgonery/Herbert backfield being a key component to the offense IF the passing attack doesn't take off. But yea I have no interest in an extension. And I think they should be thinking ahead and consider a day 3 back to develop a year then slot in in 2023.

[Arkansasbear]

So I took some time to read it again and I'll just say I think it's crap.

He uses the Rush Yards Over Expectation stat to help show he is below average. This is the one stat that is to take into account the poor OL play, poor WR blocking etc. To me, this is just snake oil. They look at the play and say he gain on average .17 yards less than an "average RB" would have gained. That number is simply pulling a monkey out of your ass. It's simply not any form of hard data.

The only "stat" out there that falls on him for the most part is lack of explosive plays. As IE pointed out, he worked hard and did actually manage to increase his long distance speed, but it is still not at an elite level. But even this stat is miss leading. It's hard to have runs longer than 15 yards when you are CONSTANTLY getting hit at or near the LOS. Same thing on "success rate." I'm sure he has lots of 1st and 10 and 2nd and 7 he gets minimal yards. But again, is that a result of him being below average or is that the result of the team being bad - bad blocking / bad play calling such that the defense knows what's coming.

To me watching him play I think it's crazy to say he is a below average RB. At the same time to say he is "elite" is also crazy.

Still don't know what his value to the team should be when it comes to what he gets paid, but the number at spotrac that HRS pointed too give me a lot of pause and think he may not be back after his rookie contract.

[Richie]

So I took some time to read it again and I'll just say I think it's crap.

He uses the Rush Yards Over Expectation stat to help show he is below average. This is the one stat that is to take into account the poor OL play, poor WR blocking etc. To me, this is just snake oil. They look at the play and say he gain on average .17 yards less than an "average RB" would have gained. That number is simply pulling a monkey out of your ass. It's simply not any form of hard data.

The only "stat" out there that falls on him for the most part is lack of explosive plays. As IE pointed out, he worked hard and did actually manage to increase his long distance speed, but it is still not at an elite level. But even this stat is miss leading. It's hard to have runs longer than 15 yards when you are CONSTANTLY getting hit at or near the LOS. Same thing on "success rate." I'm sure he has lots of 1st and 10 and 2nd and 7 he gets minimal yards. But again, is that a result of him being below average or is that the result of the team being bad - bad blocking / bad play calling such that the defense knows what's coming.

To me watching him play I think it's crazy to say he is a below average RB. At the same time to say he is "elite" is also crazy.

Still don't know what his value to the team should be when it comes to what he gets paid, but the number at spotrac that HRS pointed too give me a lot of pause and think he may not be back after his rookie contract.

He uses the Rush Yards Over Expectation stat to help show he is below average. This is the one stat that is to take into account the poor OL play, poor WR blocking etc. To me, this is just snake oil. They look at the play and say he gain on average .17 yards less than an "average RB" would have gained. That number is simply pulling a monkey out of your ass. It's simply not any form of hard data.

Definitely not just pulling a monkey out of your ass. Look at how it's calculated. Pretty incredible stuff.



To me watching him play I think it's crazy to say he is a below average RB.

I think he's a top 20 RB in the league, which is fine... but that makes him a poor feature back. He has a purpose, but he also has no business being handed the full reigns to a backfield.

Also, how about his poor yards after contact? That's the most glaring thing to me. Sure, he's tough to bring down, but he never really gets anywhere from that since he's so non explosive. He doesn't go to the ground and the play gets called dead at forward progress. He drags guys a couple of yards, or maybe he break a couple of tackles. Which makes you go "Whoa! He's a tough runner!". But if he doesn't go anywhere... what does it really mean? It's just window dressing on a mediocre runner. Looks better on highlight reels.