Players departing (and comp pick tracking)

[The Cooler King]

Probably don't need a new thread for every player who departs. Maybe consolidate some of the smaller ones here.



And for comp pick tracking a handy link
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks/

Burns 2M should qualify for the formula, but is small enough to likely fall outside the top 32 picks at end of the day. Probably wouldn't count on it, but there's a chance it's an offset.

[Moriarty]

I doubt he will.

I thought he was better than people realized last year and would have made a good 3rd outside guy or adequate 1 yr stopgap CB2.
But when the scheme changed, I'm not sure that he would have fit that well.


I'm also pretty sure the Bears are getting their usual 0 comps again.
Poles either doesn't get it or doesn't care.
Yes, it's not the biggest issue, by any means.
But I'm still not encouraged to see the inability to work the system properly continue.

[The Cooler King]

Here's the guy who does the OTC projections says 2M won't be close, presumably because it misses the 35% cutoff for seventh rounders. Asked him a follow up to see what he thinks cutoff is.

[LacertineForest]

I don't know what the 2023 QB draft class will be like, but my gut is telling me so far that the Bears could very well end up with a Top-5 pick after this coming season, which could put them in a position to net a boatload of picks with a good trade. A lot of time left to shake out with FA and this year's draft, obviously, but I'm thinking this is going to be a 4-5 win team. I'm along for the ride - as long as they can build a winner with a consistent playoff appearances, I don't care what it takes to get there.

[dplank]

I don't know what the 2023 QB draft class will be like, but my gut is telling me so far that the Bears could very well end up with a Top-5 pick after this coming season, which could put them in a position to net a boatload of picks with a good trade. A lot of time left to shake out with FA and this year's draft, obviously, but I'm thinking this is going to be a 4-5 win team. I'm along for the ride - as long as they can build a winner with a consistent playoff appearances, I don't care what it takes to get there.

I was feeling that way also until someone reminded us all that the guys we moved out of here accounted for like 3% of our snaps last year. So basically, we lost nearly nothing from the squad that won 6 last year and the additions are forthcoming. I also believe we will benefit from better coaching, hard to do worse than McNagy IMO. We aren't contenders but we could approach .500

[The Cooler King]

I don't know what the 2023 QB draft class will be like, but my gut is telling me so far that the Bears could very well end up with a Top-5 pick after this coming season, which could put them in a position to net a boatload of picks with a good trade. A lot of time left to shake out with FA and this year's draft, obviously, but I'm thinking this is going to be a 4-5 win team. I'm along for the ride - as long as they can build a winner with a consistent playoff appearances, I don't care what it takes to get there.

I was feeling that way also until someone reminded us all that the guys we moved out of here accounted for like 3% of our snaps last year. So basically, we lost nearly nothing from the squad that won 6 last year and the additions are forthcoming. I also believe we will benefit from better coaching, hard to do worse than McNagy IMO. We aren't contenders but we could approach .500

Not to derail thread too much and make this a record prediction thread, but the schedule variance looks like it will swing pretty dramatically in Bears favor.

[LacertineForest]

I don't know what the 2023 QB draft class will be like, but my gut is telling me so far that the Bears could very well end up with a Top-5 pick after this coming season, which could put them in a position to net a boatload of picks with a good trade. A lot of time left to shake out with FA and this year's draft, obviously, but I'm thinking this is going to be a 4-5 win team. I'm along for the ride - as long as they can build a winner with a consistent playoff appearances, I don't care what it takes to get there.

I was feeling that way also until someone reminded us all that the guys we moved out of here accounted for like 3% of our snaps last year. So basically, we lost nearly nothing from the squad that won 6 last year and the additions are forthcoming. I also believe we will benefit from better coaching, hard to do worse than McNagy IMO. We aren't contenders but we could approach .500

Not to derail thread too much and make this a record prediction thread, but the schedule variance looks like it will swing pretty dramatically in Bears favor.

All fair points, and you could very well be right. I'm just thinking, we seem to have a lack of strength in just about every position group, and we don't have a ton of draft picks (none in the first round). Even if we did have a lot of picks, it can take time to develop those players. I agree that with the right coaching, scheme, and savvy secondary FAs, they can put together a competitive group. I guess it all depends on how well all of those things come together, but I'm not overly optimistic about the upcoming season. I'm just hoping to see Fields develop and growth from young players. Anything beyond that is gravy, for me.

Edit: Sorry for the derail - just didn't know where else to put these thoughts since there are a lot of threads floating around, mostly involving FA

[crueltyabc]

Back to the comp pick issue - I have a question:

If the Bears sign a $5m+ lineman and a $5m+ WR who wasn't waived (MVS is the name I have in mind) won't it basically sink the Bears anyway? Is there really much hope for comp picks at this point?

[Moriarty]

I don't know what the 2023 QB draft class will be like, but my gut is telling me so far that the Bears could very well end up with a Top-5 pick after this coming season, which could put them in a position to net a boatload of picks with a good trade. A lot of time left to shake out with FA and this year's draft, obviously, but I'm thinking this is going to be a 4-5 win team. I'm along for the ride - as long as they can build a winner with a consistent playoff appearances, I don't care what it takes to get there.

I was feeling that way also until someone reminded us all that the guys we moved out of here accounted for like 3% of our snaps last year. So basically, we lost nearly nothing from the squad that won 6 last year and the additions are forthcoming.

I hate to be the "get back on the ledge and jump" guy, but that's not at all accurate.

Bears have/will, at minimum (I'm not even counting guys who are highly likely), lose:

Mack
Goldman
Nichols
Hicks
Ogletree
Gipson
Burns
ARob
Daniels
Peters
Ifedi
Wilkinson
DWilliams
Dalton

Now, granted, not all will be that missed or were forecast to be starters again, but even scratching some of those -
What percent of snaps a starter typically gets varies by position, but it's generally nowhere near as high as people think it is, because of a few missed games or rotations (especially in the defensive front 7, which is where half of these guys played).

Mack (31% of def)
Goldman (34%)
Nichols (64%)
Hicks (30%)
ARob (55% of off)
Daniels (100%)
Peters (76%)
Ifedi (37%)

That's 8 quality starters out of 22 (36%). Even if you account for them playing a bit less than starters usually do, it comes to roughly 5/22 (23%) worth of snaps (almost 8x more than that 3% figure).

[Moriarty]

Back to the comp pick issue - I have a question:

If the Bears sign a $5m+ lineman and a $5m+ WR who wasn't waived (MVS is the name I have in mind) won't it basically sink the Bears anyway? Is there really much hope for comp picks at this point?

nope

[thunderspirit]

Wait, I'm confused here.

If the Bears roster is trash, as many posters here believe, then why would those same posters be upset that the Bears are unlikely to get comp picks next year? After all, who wants a trash roster's players...?

[Hema2.0]

Wait, I'm confused here.

If the Bears roster is trash, as many posters here believe, then why would those same posters be upset that the Bears are unlikely to get comp picks next year? After all, who wants a trash roster's players...?

Winner, winner, Chicken dinner!

[Moriarty]

Wait, I'm confused here.

If the Bears roster is trash, as many posters here believe, then why would those same posters be upset that the Bears are unlikely to get comp picks next year? After all, who wants a trash roster's players...?

Because the entire roster of players is of uniform quality? Come on. You know better than that.
There was a wide range of abilities amongst the 53 players on the team. Some were terrible, some were great, the overall aggregate was bad.


The problem isn't that "nobody wants" any of the Bear FAs.
2 have been signed that qualify and at least 2 more (ARob, Hicks) will, too. That's enough for the maximum allowable.

The complaint is what's happening on the other end.
Poles is signing guys that make just enough to cancel them out, when you could be getting by with cheaper guys in a year where an extra 1 or 2 wins is meaningless.
As much as I'm not a fan of Pace's overall work, he did know how to get respectable vets to fill gaps for 1-2M.

[The Cooler King]

Back to the comp pick issue - I have a question:

If the Bears sign a $5m+ lineman and a $5m+ WR who wasn't waived (MVS is the name I have in mind) won't it basically sink the Bears anyway? Is there really much hope for comp picks at this point?

Yea, would be really tough at that point.

Current comp debits are Nichols and Daniels and ARob will be soon in there. That's +3.

They're at - 3 with Ogunjobi, Morrow, and probably Morrow (maybe slight chance he falls out depending how incentives count). So even.

If they sign two more CFAs they'd be at negative 2.

Hicks and Dalton may net them back debits, but that would bring them just back up to even. Who else will net them debits? Graham and Ifedi are possible but not likely. Bush, DHC, Gipson, Byrd, Goodwin, Peters? I would put them all at less than like a 10% chance of signing a big enough deal to factor in.

So realistically they have maybe 1 (2 if they're very lucky) slots to get back in the black on debits. Maybe if they manage to net out even they could get a 7th for net losses with ARob, but those don't happen often because they are lowest on priority.

[Moriarty]

The one caveat I'll offer is: I don't know exact details about calculating what is big enough to count against (the minimum qualifying threshold). If that bottom ends goes up enough, because of rising salaries this year, such that Morrow and the OL don't count, then I'll take it back.

But I'm pretty skeptical it can be rising that much.

[Moriarty]

Hicks and Dalton may net them back debits, but that would bring them just back up to even. Who else will net them debits? Graham and Ifedi are possible but not likely. Bush, DHC, Gipson, Byrd, Goodwin, Peters? I would put them all at less than like a 10% chance of signing a big enough deal to factor in.

I'll be pretty surprised if Peters passes physicals, but doesn't score enough to count. However, I can see him being a fairly late signing again.

Someone, somewhere said something about a deadline for counting towards the calculations?

[wab]

Comp picks are awesome, but the Bears roster is not exactly in a place where they can get too many of them. They still have to field a team, and filling a roster with scrubs and UDFA types isn't helpful.

Comp picks come (and are most beneficial) when you can let a guy go and have someone ready to step into that position, or you can safely assume a draft pick is a viable replacement. The Bears aren't there yet.

[The Cooler King]

Hicks and Dalton may net them back debits, but that would bring them just back up to even. Who else will net them debits? Graham and Ifedi are possible but not likely. Bush, DHC, Gipson, Byrd, Goodwin, Peters? I would put them all at less than like a 10% chance of signing a big enough deal to factor in.

I'll be pretty surprised if Peters passes physicals, but doesn't score enough to count. However, I can see him being a fairly late signing again.

Someone, somewhere said something about a deadline for counting towards the calculations?

Monday after the draft is the cutoff date. After that no deals count toward comp formula.

[The Cooler King]

Comp picks are awesome, but the Bears roster is not exactly in a place where they can get too many of them. They still have to field a team, and filling a roster with scrubs and UDFA types isn't helpful.

Comp picks come (and are most beneficial) when you can let a guy go and have someone ready to step into that position, or you can safely assume a draft pick is a viable replacement. The Bears aren't there yet.

Hopefully it's just an area of correlation and not causation. I.e. Good teams get comp picks by default, but the value add isn't actually what makes them better. But we all want more draft capital, naturally.

[Artbest]

I'm not particularly well versed on the comp pick formula other than to realize, adjusting for contract value and performance, teams that lose more qualifying free agents than they sign tend to, more often than not, be the teams that come away with compensatory draft picks,.

Ryan Pace doesn't appear to deserve kudos in this regard - I believe he managed to secure 1 comp pick in seven years. His poor drafting/lack of regard for draft capital, as much as anything else, seems to have compelled the Bears to sign an over abundance of veteran FA's.

As for Poles, even if they hadn't signed Ogunjobi, may not have qualified for a comp selection. their other two signings were hardly overly aggressive or lucrative. The issue is Poles inherited a bad roster replete with gaping holes. He needs bodies to fill spots. The Bears won't be in the annual comp pick conversation imo unti if/when he proves himself to be shrewd on draft day.

There isn't, imo, a compelling case to be made at present for criticizing or complimenting Poles.

[Arkansasbear]

Mack (31% of def)
Goldman (34%)
Nichols (64%)
Hicks (30%)
ARob (55% of off)
Daniels (100%)
Peters (76%)
Ifedi (37%)

That's 8 quality starters out of 22 (36%). Even if you account for them playing a bit less than starters usually do, it comes to roughly 5/22 (23%) worth of snaps (almost 8x more than that 3% figure).

So those are the guys we need to be focusing on when it come to who is getting replaced. The rest of the guys that might leave are JAG and will be replaced likely with JAG.

So we need 2 full time starters on the OL (replace Daniels (100%) and the combo of Peters and Ifeid (100)) and I think you can argue we need 3 as we have to replace 100% of Mustipher. So Jenkins is one of those guys as is Patrick (he can fill on of the iOL spots). So we need to sign "someone" to fill the last hole (assuming we move on from Mustipher) and I would suspect we get some veteran presence as well as draft another guy.

There are a ton of FAs out there can can pick up, and likely exceed, what ARbob gave us last year. So I'm not worried about that and expect us to sign 2 FA WRs and get one (hopefully Watson) in the draft.

Ogunjobi will the void of Hicks and Goldman being gone and I think will give more production than those two guys combined did last year.

Regarding Nichols, I think it might be hard to replace his production, but I just don't think he had a role in this system. So it will be easy to fill in her percentage played, but we might get a lessor return but at the same time will likely pay less than he got from the Rayders.

Mack. Well hell we aren't going to sign or draft anyone that in 31% of the defensive snaps gave us what he gave us last year. Simply not happening. The Mack trade was/is a hard pill to swallow but for the long term growth of the team it was pill we had to take. There are clearly good arguments that we got less than we should have in the trade and maybe we traded him at his lowest value (that's a risk reward we won't know until this time next year), but I'm at peace with it.

So overall I don't think the guys that will be moving on be a major factor in us regressing next season. Depending on who else we sign and who we draft, I see this team winning 7 games at least with the potential to hit double digits. If he had back all the guys listed, I think we fall in that same range. But I think the moves that have been made put us in a better spots in '23 and onward.

[The Cooler King]

I'm not particularly well versed on the comp pick formula other than to realize, adjusting for contract value and performance, teams that lose more qualifying free agents than they sign tend to, more often than not, be the teams that come away with compensatory draft picks,.

Ryan Pace doesn't appear to deserve kudos in this regard - I believe he managed to secure 1 comp pick in seven years. His poor drafting/lack of regard for draft capital, as much as anything else, seems to have compelled the Bears to sign an over abundance of veteran FA's.

As for Poles, even if they hadn't signed Ogunjobi, may not have qualified for a comp selection. their other two signings were hardly overly aggressive or lucrative. The issue is Poles inherited a bad roster replete with gaping holes. He needs bodies to fill spots. The Bears won't be in the annual comp pick conversation imo unti if/when he proves himself to be shrewd on draft day.

There isn't, imo, a compelling case to be made at present for criticizing or complimenting Poles.

I think he got 3 total, but one was a mistake by the NFL and then they let them keep it even after they realized the mistake.

I was hopeful Pace was gonna turn the corner tbrtr because it is legitimately hard to do if you're left a shit sandwich. Poles will get a little leeway, but not as much as Pace. This iteration of the Bears is closer to being a comp pick team than the one Pace took over IMO.

[Moriarty]

I disagree with the notion that comp picks should only happen when you're a strong contender, being plundered, and can't afford everyone back.

IMO, they should most often happen at both ends of the spectrum - both when you're really strong and when you're just starting over, like now.

Of course, you can take advantage anytime if the irregularity of when contracts expire work in your favor. But those are the two times you should most be looking to capitalize.

[The Cooler King]

I disagree with the notion that comp picks should only happen when you're a strong contender, being plundered, and can't afford everyone back.

IMO, they should most often happen at both ends of the spectrum - both when you're really strong and when you're just starting over, like now.

Of course, you can take advantage anytime if the irregularity of when contracts expire work in your favor. But those are the two times you should most be looking to capitalize.

It's just really hard to do when you suck cuz your departing players aren't creating debits and you have little internal areas to spend money on as an alternative.

[Moriarty]

I disagree with the notion that comp picks should only happen when you're a strong contender, being plundered, and can't afford everyone back.

IMO, they should most often happen at both ends of the spectrum - both when you're really strong and when you're just starting over, like now.

Of course, you can take advantage anytime if the irregularity of when contracts expire work in your favor. But those are the two times you should most be looking to capitalize.

It's just really hard to do when you suck cuz your departing players aren't creating debits and you have little internal areas to spend money on as an alternative.

I don't know if it's that hard. There was plenty of opportunity to do it this year - they're going to get 4-6 qualifying players, probably.
You just have to be willing to get by on a lot of non-qualifying players and draft picks for a year.
The issue of 'too much money and nothing to spend it on' isn't a big deal. You can front-load the hell out of whatever new/renewal contracts you do, putting yourself in better position for subsequent years. Or you can roll forward unlimited amounts of money.

Rough? Sure - very temporarily. And when isn't starting all over rough?
What I consider the roughest as a fan is a season like 2021, where you know it's going absolutely nowhere and the only endgame is an eventual admission of failure that should have come sooner.
If you win 4 games in the first year of a brand new regime, you still usually have plenty of reason to believe things can and will get better. (Especially if it happens because you were building for the future.)

[Hema2.0]

Poles just needs to continually hit on draft picks to create good depth. Comp picks will occur quite frequently then. Let's hope he nails the draft year after year.

[The Cooler King]

O'Donnell gone. To Green Bay

[Z Bear]

You guys have a weird obsession with comp picks. Fact is they are all day 3 picks, which have a very low success rate in the NFL. Yes I know they start in round 3, but that is the end of round 3 which is really an early 4th round pick. If you are getting 3rd and 4th round comp picks you are letting quality talent walk out of the door. So that means your GM did a shitty job of managing the cap. I would rather have a quality NFL player under contract than a 4th round draft pick any day of the week.

[The Cooler King]

As I suspected, this won't factor into comp territory

[The Cooler King]

You guys have a weird obsession with comp picks. Fact is they are all day 3 picks, which have a very low success rate in the NFL. Yes I know they start in round 3, but that is the end of round 3 which is really an early 4th round pick. If you are getting 3rd and 4th round comp picks you are letting quality talent walk out of the door. So that means your GM did a shitty job of managing the cap. I would rather have a quality NFL player under contract than a 4th round draft pick any day of the week.

I agree to a point. But there have been instances in the past where teams took advantage of pretty easy "hacks" to pick up easy picks. Now the NFL closed some loopholes there (biggest being the option loophole - that actually screwed Bears with Massie), but they still exist.

It can't be your only goal, but it's one of those margin things that gives you free draft capital.

So like when you sign a guy for 2M v 2.5M it's really an extra 500k and potentially a comp pick. Little edges like that are worth contemplating and tracking /critiquing.