Spending Money with Fields On HIs Rookie Deal

[Grizzled]

Poles' has put the team in the position that they have to hit on every draft pick this year. They're still too thin at WR, CB, S, LB, maybe TE, OT and G. They'll have the cash and the draft picks in '23 to make more major changes but this year needs to see JF make major improvements. I don't see many major moves they can make anymore except draft out of the ballpark.

[RichH55]

Poles' has put the team in the position that they have to hit on every draft pick this year. They're still too thin at WR, CB, S, LB, maybe TE, OT and G. They'll have the cash and the draft picks in '23 to make more major changes but this year needs to see JF make major improvements. I don't see many major moves they can make anymore except draft out of the ballpark.

I am of the school that they can scimp on the D this season - might even be a feature rather than a bug draft pick wise

[RichH55]

FWIW Armstead identified Miami and Chicago as his preferred destinations. Excellent posts all around on this IMO.

I get everyone’s desire to stay patient and normally would agree with it. The competing issue here, though, is the development of Justin Fields. You can’t stick him with the worst OL and WR corps in football in his crucial second year of development. That point is absolutely critical to my POV. I don’t care how many games we win next year.

Where did you see the Chicago stuff? (Not doubting - I just want to read it)

I only saw alot of Miami stuff (and he clearly gave New Orleans a chance to get Watson)

Chicago and Miami aren't apples to apples BTW- Income Tax means we'd have to offer more just to offer the same

[dplank]

Did you like the Ogun signing? I’ll dig up the Armstead thing, saw it yesterday.

Edit: Olin Kruetz reported it. Not the link I saw but here’s a rando tweet about it:



The income tax thing is WAAAAY overblown man. It’s not nearly the savings you think, they get you in other ways, and it’s a very minor factor for players (these guys are not penny pinchers by any stretch)

[RichH55]

Did you like the Ogun signing? I’ll dig up the Armstead thing, saw it yesterday.

Nice.

I actually did on Ogun. (*) And I like the Jones signing (**)

(*) I didn't see any of Ogun play so it's all reports

(**) Didn't see much Jones - but liked him coming out of College

I think he got the process quite right on DL. (Even including voiding the Ogun deal)

Didn't really have a problem with the $ - quick pivot too. Got players with some upside

My only issue (and lord knows I posted it) - You have to have an approach this year that nets you the Comp Pick.

[RichH55]

Did you like the Ogun signing? I’ll dig up the Armstead thing, saw it yesterday.

Edit: Olin Kruetz reported it. Not the link I saw but here’s a rando tweet about it:



The income tax thing is WAAAAY overblown man. It’s not nearly the savings you think, they get you in other ways, and it’s a very minor factor for players (these guys are not penny pinchers by any stretch)

I mean - it's not like Illinois is saying thats all we need. Ha.

But Illinois is like 5%. 750 K a year on 15 million.

Honestly I have a tough time believing Olin on just about anything (except when he's threatening violence - that one he backs up)

[dplank]

How do you square liking the Ogun signing and preferring we scimp on the D this season? Poles shot his wad on that move instead of making a big move to help Fieds, that was my issue with it. I liked the player and understand his value to the defense, just wanted to do more for Fields instead of D.

[dplank]

Did you like the Ogun signing? I’ll dig up the Armstead thing, saw it yesterday.

Edit: Olin Kruetz reported it. Not the link I saw but here’s a rando tweet about it:



The income tax thing is WAAAAY overblown man. It’s not nearly the savings you think, they get you in other ways, and it’s a very minor factor for players (these guys are not penny pinchers by any stretch)

I mean - it's not like Illinois is saying thats all we need. Ha.

But Illinois is like 5%. 750 K a year on 15 million.

Honestly I have a tough time believing Olin on just about anything (except when he's threatening violence - that one he backs up)

750k = non factor IMO. That’s a night at the club for these wankers (exaggerated for effect). It’d also be a non factor for us to add that little surcharge to his deal if it became an issue for him. Nothingburger either way IMO. FYI, if he buys a mansion here his property tax bill could be half a million.

[TheWorldBreaker]

Poles' has put the team in the position that they have to hit on every draft pick this year. They're still too thin at WR, CB, S, LB, maybe TE, OT and G. They'll have the cash and the draft picks in '23 to make more major changes but this year needs to see JF make major improvements. I don't see many major moves they can make anymore except draft out of the ballpark.

Poles didn’t put them in this position, Ryan Pace constructed a roster that had over 30 free agents, less than 40 million in cap space, holes on the defensive line, linebacker, secondary, offensive line, TE, and WR. And only five draft picks.

Anyone who thought completely overhauling the mess Pace made could happen in two weeks of free agency, let alone one offseason wasn’t being honest with themselves.

The good news about your concerns are that there are no games in March and there are also a lot of roster spots still available. And it’s a really deep draft class at WR and offensive line.

Plus, we don’t know what the new offense looks like. But we do know that Justin Fields is elite with deep ball accuracy and that the strength of the offense last year was the run game.

The Bears have added a fullback and another running back, Patrick and Bates are good run blockers that don’t get blown up on tape…

So I think we can infer based on these moves that the plan is to primarily be a run heavy/play action offense.

The previous regime refused to accept the run game was the strength of the offense and was obsessed with curl routes, so just from a willingness to accept reality and schematic perspective they should be in a better position offensively.

Edit: You don’t calculate taxes based on the total sum, taxes would be applied for each game check, and I believe on the road games they have to pay the state income tax for that state.

[RichH55]

How do you square liking the Ogun signing and preferring we scimp on the D this season? Poles shot his wad on that move instead of making a big move to help Fieds, that was my issue with it. I liked the player and understand his value to the defense, just wanted to do more for Fields instead of D.

I don't think its really a thing to Square. Let me see if I can explain my position better.

1) This part matters most to me: "I liked the player and understand his value to the defense"

And I didn't think the cost was bad on any of the FA Poles signed including Ogun.

Mainly I just want to be smart about things.

Compare with like the Jimmy Graham signing. I think we were bidding against ourselves - felt the need to win that bidding war big - and somehow gave him a No Trade Clause (I can't get over that)


2). Signing Ogun - doesn't mean you are devoting a ton of resources to D - It doesn't get you a second corner for example.

I also disagree that is was Poles only shot - That's a false choice to me. I don't think signing Ogun precluded you from doing any other move you wanted to do.

At that point you are questioning his preferences (fair enough) - but I can't put that on Ogun's signing either.


3). (***) I wanted the OL to Not have a Sam Mustipher sized hole - I think we will get there (cmon no offer sheet matched)

(***) Key Piece

I absolutely agree here that you need to have the OL competent. And I think I view OL play (often, not 100% of the time - but often) as weakest link is what determines your OL

I think the OL last year was meh with Mustipher. People wanted to call it THE WORST EVER!!!!!!! DUMPSTER FIRE!!!!!!! But in reality it's like a line where its probably somewhere near 20th best in the league. Below Average (*)

(*) Please note Below Average is NOT the goal - just noting the difference between that and the WORST EVER.

I expect Fields to take more sacks that a typical QB
1) I think he wants to make bigger plays - and occasional that will justify things
2) He holds the ball too long, doesn't process quickly enough, and still needs to work on reading NFL Defenses

3B). I also think that if Jenkins and Borom aren't any good - then Poles was probably screwed for 2022 OL almost no matter what

4) I am not as hung up on WR/TE as you - I'm more in your camp on the OL baseline - not WR. (I would also factor in Montgomery here)

To me: Mooney is a legit NFL WR - a good one. Pringle is legit WR (I don't think he's a star but better than the Marquis Godwins of the world? Certainly). Kmet - Fine. Throw in the Boise WR in Round 4 and call it a day for purposes of this post.

Is that a room full of studs? No. Certainly not.

Is it a room that is competent and should allow you to see what you have in your QB? I think so.


If Fields NEEDS a room full of studs - that's a problem in and of itself.

Is the WR position one Im targeting in the Draft in 2022 and 2023 and perhaps FA in 2023 as well. Yes, yes it is.

Do I think the current crop of skill position players at least lets you get a decent chance to evaluate Fields? I actually do. Though I take your point that they aren't likely to truly elevate his game by themselves either

[RichH55]

Its a fair point that it would only be on Home Games for Florida for the Income Tax .

[RichH55]

5th Point.

I always viewed 2022 and 2023 in conjunction with one another- Both FA AND Draft. And I view 2022 as a year I do not expect to be a true contender

I think we needed to add: 2 WR, backup TE (probably), DL (2), LB(2), CB(2?), SS, and OL (*)

(*) Center for certain and after that- at least 1 other - but position is the ?

So I don't need to add 10 core guys in 2022. BUT I need to start paring that down - Find good values - fill the holes smartly. BPA in draft.

If that means your 2nd Corner sucks in 2022 and your 3rd string WR isn't great. I'm ok with that. (Ok with it, happy about it - different concepts). I do aim to fix that for 2023 though.


I also just have a real weird process on the tOSU OL - I think we are getting him. It feels almost locked in (*)

(*) Which is insane since its a 2nd Round pick (Or later) we are talking.

[TheWorldBreaker]

With respect to the belief that the Bears one shot to make a big move was Ogunjobi, they pursued both Brian Allen and Armstead. So the money allocated their didn’t preclude Poles from pursuing other big name free agents.

Based on his first offseason it just appears Poles’ philosophy is to have an established price for guys and he’s not willing to deviate from that. If you want to claim that they could have offered Allen more, Armstead didn’t sign until well after the failed physical and extra money was freed up.

Also, you have to consider that some players will be willing to take less to play for a contending team.

Juju wasn’t going to sign a one year contract that guaranteed only 3 million and had 7 million in incentives to play in Chicago, for instance.

There are still several notable names available but some of the reported asking prices are kind of crazy. Jarvis Landry would be a decent addition but was looking for 20 million a year? Hard pass.

Being patient and waiting for prices to go down isn’t a terrible approach. If only the fans could be half as patient as the front office.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I don't think it's a simple as people rejecting the idea of signing any top-end FAs or making trades, it's more a combination of circumstances:

• How much draft capital does the team have at the moment?
  This year the Bears don't have a great deal and are missing one in the 1st round. They're not in a great position to make trades.

• What is the current state of the roster?
  Right now the Bears are rebuilding. They have numerous holes. They have a bunch of youngsters who they need to evaluate. They're not in position to make a playoff run.

• How much cap space is available?
  The Bears have money to spend, so they can compete with other teams for FAs if they want a player.

• How established is the current regime?
  The team has a new GM, a new HC and a completely new set of co-ordinators and all of them are first-timers in their roles. Is this the year to be making big money, high profile signings or do you give these guys a season to make mistakes, learn, establish a culture and put a foundation in place?

• Who is available in free agency/trade at positions of need?
  How old are they? What is their injury history? How much are they going to cost? Is the cost likely to be commensurate with the improvement they would be expected to bring over the player they would be replacing? Are there any red flags with regards to attitude or off-field behaviour? What is the risk versus the potential reward?

And by agonizing over every detail opportunities are lost.

We have 3 Day Two picks plus Robert Quinn. We're in an excellent position to trade for a franchise level player.

We can debate whether or not they're in a position to make a playoff run. Yet this is a Chicken Or The Egg thing. If we never acquire great players, we'll never make a playoff run.

We have all the cap space in the world to do things.

The establishment of the current regime has nothing to do with this.

Then for availability, the people who are available are the people who are available. Not every offseason is a cornucopia of excellent players. Yet the market dictates what the available players are worth. See the Armstead signing. Sure he's had health problems. Yet he's a franchise LT who signed for only $15M per year. That's peanuts. We couldn't have gotten in on that?

The overarching theme of all of this is that our QB is still on his rookie deal. We will not have the cap opportunities in three years or so to do these things. Therefore we need to do them now.

This is very confused thinking TMP. Teams have to 'agonise over every detail' because if they get decisions wrong there will be long-term repercussions. Health issues are a huge consideration. $15m per year isn't peanuts if the player winds up barely playing. When you have multiple holes throughout the roster giving up what few high draft picks you have to acquire a single player isn't going to help fill those holes and trading away a productive player and picks in exchange for a single player isn't either. Other teams are not likely to be falling over themselves to trade a 'franchise-level player' for a Day 2 pick and a 32 year-old edge rusher. Adams cost a R1 and R2 pick. Hill cost R1, R2 and R4 picks this year plus R4 and R6 next year. (The franchise-level QB moves have been at a whole other level, but fortunately the Bears aren't a team who needed to get involved in that although if Fields doesn't pan out they might in a couple of year's time.)

It's interesting that people are desperate for Poles to acquire 'great players' and pay them big money whilst not worrying about any injury concerns but are quite happy to see him trade away the few 'great players' already in the building. Mack is an elite player, but a Day 2 pick and a late rounder is more valuable than retaining him. Ah, but he was being paid big money and there are injury concerns with him. Hmm... but the argument being made is that Poles shouldn't be worrying about signing new players to big contracts despite them having injury issues? We can trade Roquan Smith, a 2nd Team All Pro the last two years, because it's not worth paying him big money. Hm... but we should be paying big money to top players and be willing to also give up draft picks on top to acquire them?

What people really seem to be saying is that Poles should be putting all his resources into offense. Well the last GM who did that was Phil Emery and how did that work out? The worst defense in franchise history, that's how, with back-to-back 50 point humiliations and Aaron Rodgers throwing 6 TDs in a half.

Poles needs to have a strategy to improve the team overall, not simply behave with reckless abandon by moving rapidly to sign a couple of high-priced offensive FAs and/or trade away what little draft capital he has for a couple of quality offensive players (and not even considering whether they may be poor fits, have injury concerns or other red flags). That doesn't preclude making a splash move or two, it's just that he has to ensure they're the right splash moves for the right players made at the right time.

I'm not excited about his moves so far either, but he has a mess to sort out and I accept that he isn't going to resolve all the team's issues this year. I suspect the team is going to get worse before it gets better. I just hope Poles turns things around sooner rather than later and the Bears finally get to be annual contenders like the better run franchises are.

[thunderspirit]

I was down with the Larry Ogunjobi signing too, both because I thought he was a valuable addition to a defense that essentially replaced the Goldman expenditures and because I think he's a good player on what would have been a decent contract (not a value one, but then that's the nature of free agency much of the time).

(I'm less sold on Justin Jones as Ogun's replacement, but the investment was correspondingly less, so I'm okay with a wait-and-see approach on that one.)

And I also think that Ogun didn't have any significant impact on what they subsequently did (beyond the pivot to Jones, of course). Had they wanted to outbid the Rams for Noteboom or Allen, for instance, they had plenty of capacity to do so.

[dplank]

I agree with much of this (not all). My biggest disagreement would be regarding Ogun signing being his “one shot “ - I believe it was. Of course he could’ve robbed Peter to pay Paul, but that would run afoul of his master plan. IMO he had one bullet to spend if he didn’t want to deviate from his strategic plan to reboot the roster. So I absolutely view that as an either/or decision given that context. And because of that I had issue with it because it restricted his ability to properly protect Fields this season, which is of paramount importance.

I’ve been calling for a proper resource spend on OL for many years. Armstead came at a discount. Moses was an easy pickup IMO. Everyone points to the draft - ok - Pace drafted guys also it was one thing he was pretty good at.

Overall I’m just looking at a terrible OL and terrible WR room and thinking, this is not how you “build around Fields” - the one thing everyone here agrees we should be doing. Ogun wasn’t building around Fields either.

**note this was a response to Rich’s post, a lot of posts came in while typing lol

[RichH55]

I disagree that the WR and OL rooms are terrible. I was a bit of a skeptic on Jenkins but it would surprise me if he was an out and out bust (He was in peoples comments all year - and now he's terrible??? )

Fields still has to prove himself. He's an open question.

The Ogun signing being his One Shot - Is just not supported by the available constructs. I don't even think you need to rob Peter to pay Paul - It's just absolutely a false choice.

It simply was NOT an either/or decision - This is a bad take

[RichH55]

And on the Moses thing - You guys get that he's basically Bobby Massie right?

I think that level of player is perfectly acceptable - competent RT - You can certainly do worse

But lets not make him out to be anything more than what he is.

[dplank]

I disagree that the WR and OL rooms are terrible. I was a bit of a skeptic on Jenkins but it would surprise me if he was an out and out bust (He was in peoples comments all year - and now he's terrible??? )

Fields still has to prove himself. He's an open question.

The Ogun signing being his One Shot - Is just not supported by the available constructs. I don't even think you need to rob Peter to pay Paul - It's just absolutely a false choice.

It simply was NOT an either/or decision - This is a bad take

We disagree on either/or - in order to make two big signings like that he’d have had to do other undesirable things that would have him off course from his plan. That is the reality we saw unfold. I’ll just leave it there.

Regarding Jenkins, I love him. But you just went against your own prior post “weakest link argument “. One good player doesn’t make an OL, and he’s unproven at that. Hence why I wanted Moses - it would have given us draft flexibility and credible pass protection for a small cost. Counting on both Jenkins and Borom to work out seems foolish, as is counting on a non first round draft pick rookie. Moses is nothing more than a bridge to something better.

[thunderspirit]

And on the Moses thing - You guys get that he's basically Bobby Massie right?

I think that level of player is perfectly acceptable - competent RT - You can certainly do worse

But lets not make him out to be anything more than what he is.

I'll jump in on @dplank's side with Moses — Bobbie Massie for $5M is a pretty freaking good deal. I'd have made that offer, with full understanding that there's no way we know that Moses would have signed in Chicago for the same coin. For $6M, I might still have done it; higher, I might not have.

Tangentially related, I am wondering if Poles sees Jenkins staying at LT or moving to RT (which is Moses' spot). If it's the latter, not pursuing Moses makes more sense.

[RichH55]

I disagree that the WR and OL rooms are terrible. I was a bit of a skeptic on Jenkins but it would surprise me if he was an out and out bust (He was in peoples comments all year - and now he's terrible??? )

Fields still has to prove himself. He's an open question.

The Ogun signing being his One Shot - Is just not supported by the available constructs. I don't even think you need to rob Peter to pay Paul - It's just absolutely a false choice.

It simply was NOT an either/or decision - This is a bad take

We disagree on either/or - in order to make two big signings like that he’d have had to do other undesirable things that would have him off course from his plan. That is the reality we saw unfold. I’ll just leave it there.

Regarding Jenkins, I love him. But you just went against your own prior post “weakest link argument “. One good player doesn’t make an OL, and he’s unproven at that. Hence why I wanted Moses - it would have given us draft flexibility and credible pass protection for a small cost. Counting on both Jenkins and Borom to work out seems foolish, as is counting on a non first round draft pick rookie. Moses is nothing more than a bridge to something better.

Mustipher was the weakest link - he will be upgraded this year. We should be better or at least as good as last year on the OL - and even then we weren't "terrible"

The Ogun thing: Again - No. That's a false choice. (*). It just is. There were no limits from a Cap perspective - Just aren't any.

(*) Especially because we DIDNT Sign Ogun. So if he was only going to have 1 signing at that level - He didn't ACTUALLY have a signing at that level. And as others noted - Armstead signed AFTER this anyway

You are free to disagree with the process - saying that you would have preferred Poles to wade deeper into higher end FA specifically and generally

But to suggest he "COULDN'T" because Ogun was the only guy who could fit - Is just untrue

Seemingly Ogun meant they weren't going to pursue another DT - but thats not the same as only one big signing

[RichH55]

And on the Moses thing - You guys get that he's basically Bobby Massie right?

I think that level of player is perfectly acceptable - competent RT - You can certainly do worse

But lets not make him out to be anything more than what he is.

I'll jump in on @dplank's side with Moses — Bobbie Massie for $5M is a pretty freaking good deal. I'd have made that offer, with full understanding that there's no way we know that Moses would have signed in Chicago for the same coin. For $6M, I might still have done it; higher, I might not have.

Tangentially related, I am wondering if Poles sees Jenkins staying at LT or moving to RT (which is Moses' spot). If it's the latter, not pursuing Moses makes more sense.

Not disagreeing - Its not bad value and Dplank and I agree it would be kind of a stopgap - but its also not a stud. Do I think the tOSU kid can come in and play up to a Bobby Massie type level as a Rookie? Yes I do

[dplank]

You’re assuming we get him tho. Why risk Fields safety and development - there’s 38 picks going ahead of us. It’s also not a BPA approach which I know you like. Moses would’ve given us more flexibility in the draft, feels like we are pidgeonholed now into drafting a T high or rolling the dice with Borom/Jenkins (which is the bet Pace just made)

[RichH55]

You’re assuming we get him tho. Why risk Fields safety and development - there’s 38 picks going ahead of us. It’s also not a BPA approach which I know you like. Moses would’ve given us more flexibility in the draft, feels like we are pidgeonholed now into drafting a T high or rolling the dice with Borom/Jenkins (which is the bet Pace just made)

Completely valid criticisms

Only things I'd note
1) Off the Wall : It wouldn't shock me if Poles wanted to give Whitehair a shot at RT

2) If Poles views Jenkins as RT only - that would limit the effectiveness of a Moses signing (and its a major bummer so I'd rather not dwell on it)

3). Draft is still a possibility (and I dont really think Moses would have meant we weren't still wanting to pick an OT high - just more so meant you bought a year right?)

4). There are still a few OT out there. And while its not like I think Fischer or Nate Solder are world beaters - I would also not say Moses is better than them either - and they give you a bit more flexibility with the ability to play Left Tackle. (I think we are getting close to the point where some guys will wait for the draft to happen before signing)



I think we have already started to see - Poles is more of a Poker Player than Pace (either approach has pluses and minuses) - Which is going to be frustrating for message board steeped in posting on the NOW. Right this second, now.

[dplank]

Agree all around, even Whitehair. I’d actually be thrilled to land Fisher who played on a gimpy ACL last year. Moses meant buying a year, yes, and if the right T was there in the draft you still take him but you just aren’t counting on it.

[Yogi da Bear]

Edit: You don’t calculate taxes based on the total sum, taxes would be applied for each game check, and I believe on the road games they have to pay the state income tax for that state.

This is absolutely true. Of course, if you're playing in California for the Rams or Niners where the tax rate is 12.3% I believe, you're looking at all of your home games plus the two games you play the other team being taxed at that rate. So 8-9 games taxed at 12.3%.

But that's only for the base salary I think. I'm not sure how bonuses work. I would assume your state of residence though. What would be smart would be for the league to set up a home office in a tax free state and have all contracts funnel through the league office in that state. Maybe that would avoid income taxes on bonuses?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

What would be smart would be for the league to set up a home office in a tax free state and have all contracts funnel through the league office in that state. Maybe that would avoid income taxes on bonuses?

Smart for making super rich players even richer perhaps. Not so good for ordinary tax-payers who would probably wind up paying more to make up the shortfall.

[TheWorldBreaker]

UOK edit:

nope

[dplank]

good lord

[The Marshall Plan]

UOK edit: Offending post has been squashed.