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Yogi da Bear wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:00 pm
IE wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 12:05 pm

I've been speculating that they may indeed want to replace Monty because of his lack of explosiveness (which is not the same thing as his down-field speed once he builds up some steam - which has absolutely improved). Monty is a try-hard/earn the extra yards guy, and not a guy who makes people miss or consistent threat to pop a 50 yarder. It is easier on the opposition at times (e.g. when they have a lead) if Monty is the back all the way down field. Giving the ball to Monty means you're burning the clock down the field & not gaining big chunks.
I gotta say, IE, I really don't understand this. You claim to be looking for more explosiveness out of David, but not anything to do with his long speed (that he's unquestionable improved considerably). The thing is, Monty has ALWAYS had great short area burst. And he's ALWAYS been able to make people miss. Some of his cuts are just incredible. I think perhaps you've forgotten how explosive he really is:



GOD, I love watching David run.

I've heard a lot of people say you don't extend RBs. Period. But how many RBs have actually IMPROVED in their first three years in the league. Most RBs decline with wear and tear. But the Monty of today is far, far better than the Monty we drafted. He's so much faster and even MORE explosive than he's ever been. I would love to see him run behind that doesn't get him killed as soon as he gets the ball. Although seeing make the LOS when he should have taken a five yard loss are some of my favorite runs of his.

I sure hope they renegotiate him.
Great examples of how valuable Monty can be especially when we count the number of times either via run or pass that he knows precisely where the 1st down marker is and consistently fights his way to it or past it. He has the burst and short area elusiveness to make the first guy miss and he also has the speed to get to the edge when no inside running lane is available. That's a good RB.
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:00 pm
IE wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 12:05 pm

I've been speculating that they may indeed want to replace Monty because of his lack of explosiveness (which is not the same thing as his down-field speed once he builds up some steam - which has absolutely improved). Monty is a try-hard/earn the extra yards guy, and not a guy who makes people miss or consistent threat to pop a 50 yarder. It is easier on the opposition at times (e.g. when they have a lead) if Monty is the back all the way down field. Giving the ball to Monty means you're burning the clock down the field & not gaining big chunks.
I gotta say, IE, I really don't understand this. You claim to be looking for more explosiveness out of David, but not anything to do with his long speed (that he's unquestionable improved considerably). The thing is, Monty has ALWAYS had great short area burst. And he's ALWAYS been able to make people miss. Some of his cuts are just incredible. I think perhaps you've forgotten how explosive he really is:



GOD, I love watching David run.

I've heard a lot of people say you don't extend RBs. Period. But how many RBs have actually IMPROVED in their first three years in the league. Most RBs decline with wear and tear. But the Monty of today is far, far better than the Monty we drafted. He's so much faster and even MORE explosive than he's ever been. I would love to see him run behind that doesn't get him killed as soon as he gets the ball. Although seeing make the LOS when he should have taken a five yard loss are some of my favorite runs of his.

I sure hope they renegotiate him.

Monty just doesn't make people miss in the sense that he changes direction or jukes someone or beats them - he's just been really tough to tackle and gets admirable yards after contact. The problem is, that is conspicously decreasing, and his median stats (what you should expect in any given game) are miserable. His yards before contact on average is low. And sure it is great that he has a reputation of breaking tackles but part of that is because he is not elusive. And that really dropped off last year to one broken tackle for every 14 carries (only one per game). His explosiveness just isn't there, or it would show up in his averages (it just doesn't, and I'm sorry & I love the kid personally). He really has only a small handful of truly explosive games in 3 years. And non last year in 13 starts.

His median rushing stats: 16 carries for 60 yards and a 3.5 ypc. And zero TDs. Then passing: 2 receptions for 16 yards and zero TDs.

It is probably a good idea to love him as a person, and not as a Bear who is getting a large chunk of the opportunity. He doesn't do much with it.

Again - I'm definitely wanting to see him under Getsy and in a good scheme and more coherent play calling and blocking ... and I'm sure they do too. But what we *think* we've seen from him is really not... there?
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Are we sure Montgomery has significantly improved his explosiveness?

He got a lot of hype about it last offseason and then immediately busted off a 41 yarder on his first run of 2021... And that literally ended up being his single high rush in the year, lower than his first two years top number. Feels like that first impression had an outsized effect on people's impression from last year. I know the run support wasn't great, but we're looking for bursts not consistent yardage, for purposes of explosiveness. And there weren't those bursts. Why?
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I love Monty. But in this era of the NFL you don't pay RBs that are just "good". It is what it is.
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I wouldn’t pay him Zeke money or anything, but if the price is like 8M/yr or something I’m all over that.
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The Cooler King wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 3:09 pm Are we sure Montgomery has significantly improved his explosiveness?

He got a lot of hype about it last offseason and then immediately busted off a 41 yarder on his first run of 2021... And that literally ended up being his single high rush in the year, lower than his first two years top number. Feels like that first impression had an outsized effect on people's impression from last year. I know the run support wasn't great, but we're looking for bursts not consistent yardage, for purposes of explosiveness. And there weren't those bursts. Why?
It wasn’t just the first game though, the beat guys were saying he was looking faster in camp too.

And he came back from an injury pretty quickly, so that may have impacted him the rest of the season.
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IE wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:53 pm Monty just doesn't make people miss in the sense that he changes direction or jukes someone or beats them - he's just been really tough to tackle and gets admirable yards after contact. The problem is, that is conspicously decreasing, and his median stats (what you should expect in any given game) are miserable. His yards before contact on average is low. And sure it is great that he has a reputation of breaking tackles but part of that is because he is not elusive. And that really dropped off last year to one broken tackle for every 14 carries (only one per game). His explosiveness just isn't there, or it would show up in his averages (it just doesn't, and I'm sorry & I love the kid personally). He really has only a small handful of truly explosive games in 3 years. And non last year in 13 starts.

His median rushing stats: 16 carries for 60 yards and a 3.5 ypc. And zero TDs. Then passing: 2 receptions for 16 yards and zero TDs.

It is probably a good idea to love him as a person, and not as a Bear who is getting a large chunk of the opportunity. He doesn't do much with it.

Again - I'm definitely wanting to see him under Getsy and in a good scheme and more coherent play calling and blocking ... and I'm sure they do too. But what we *think* we've seen from him is really not... there?
Two questions:

1. If his yards before contact on average is low then isn't that likely to be due to poor blocking by the O-line rather than a negative reflection of the RB? Any RB needs a hole to hit or he's not going to gain yards before contact.

2. How do his median rushing stats compare to all the other RBs who played under Nagy, particularly Howard and Herbert who both had stints as the feature back?
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 6:05 pm
IE wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:53 pm Monty just doesn't make people miss in the sense that he changes direction or jukes someone or beats them - he's just been really tough to tackle and gets admirable yards after contact. The problem is, that is conspicously decreasing, and his median stats (what you should expect in any given game) are miserable. His yards before contact on average is low. And sure it is great that he has a reputation of breaking tackles but part of that is because he is not elusive. And that really dropped off last year to one broken tackle for every 14 carries (only one per game). His explosiveness just isn't there, or it would show up in his averages (it just doesn't, and I'm sorry & I love the kid personally). He really has only a small handful of truly explosive games in 3 years. And non last year in 13 starts.

His median rushing stats: 16 carries for 60 yards and a 3.5 ypc. And zero TDs. Then passing: 2 receptions for 16 yards and zero TDs.

It is probably a good idea to love him as a person, and not as a Bear who is getting a large chunk of the opportunity. He doesn't do much with it.

Again - I'm definitely wanting to see him under Getsy and in a good scheme and more coherent play calling and blocking ... and I'm sure they do too. But what we *think* we've seen from him is really not... there?
Two questions:

1. If his yards before contact on average is low then isn't that likely to be due to poor blocking by the O-line rather than a negative reflection of the RB? Any RB needs a hole to hit or he's not going to gain yards before contact.

2. How do his median rushing stats compare to all the other RBs who played under Nagy, particularly Howard and Herbert who both had stints as the feature back?
Yes you're right the Oline certainly has an impact. AND the system/play-calling. That's why I (and I'm sure the new regime) wants to see Monty in the new system before they judge. He's as fast as Aaron Jones and has good hands so there is promise. He's not shifty though - and I think that's a difference with him. He grinds a few extra yards by spinning through and extending the tackle, or he's in the open and then that's where his new breakaway speed can help (very infrequently). I was excited about that in late '20 and in the first game of last year. But then that new long threat disappeared. In his defense, he was injured and still recovering last year. BUT... his lack of whatever that leads to his dismal career numbers per touch is a huge red flag. We can love his effort but as fans at the end of the day we need production.

Median stats are easy to see... just go to their career game log and sort on a metric then go to the middle game. Howard is at around 4.1 (and only 60 yards) and Herbert in very small sample where he had more than 4 carries (definitely not yet trustworthy) is around 4.4 and 86.

And I LIKE Monty. I draft him every year in FF. It's just that I want JF1 surrounded with explosive playmakers... and that isn't Monty.

They just can't pay David the kind of money James Conner got - even though he's sort a comp (slow tough guy that can catch). That can't be where the money goes in today's NFL.
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I am thinking we may still make a run at Eric Fisher. Though not considered elite anymore he is still serviceable and would defiantly help. Then again Jason Peters may have one more year left in him.

I believe we are still going to go after a LT before the season begins. if we do our Line doesn't look as bad.

Still not sure why everyone has Mustipher moving to guard and starting? That is strange to me. If you don't like your starting center from last year that was an undrafted FA why in the hell would you love him at guard the next season.

LT- SIgn a Free agent starter. Borom as swing.
LG- Let them fight it out.
C- Lucas
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RT- Jenkins- He did play well when he could play last year. At least he has the fight in him to back up his QB when hit late unlike the rest of the dips we had. Question is whether or not he will be able to play very long with a bad back at RT. He may need to move inside and move Borom to RT.
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By the way depending on who you look at there 7 to 10 potential first-round guys in next year's draft. O_lineman. By then we will know more about what we have and don't have. Plus 121 million in cap room. This could be just a tryout year before next year. Hopefully, Fields doesn't get killed.

This is my top player period for next year depending of course how he returns from his torn ACL. DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
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dplank wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 4:47 pm I wouldn’t pay him Zeke money or anything, but if the price is like 8M/yr or something I’m all over that.
You mean $8MM for 2 years, right? I know we all see players differently - but what have you seen in terms of actual measured production that deserves that kind of dollars?

Again I LOVE Monty as a guy and teammate. But I'd rather see the 4.4 shifty/elusive guys out there for the Bears- real threats to take it to the house on any play. A HUGE part of protecting JF1 is surrounding him with dangerous weapons and real threats so he isn't the only focus for the D. When Monty is out there they can just focus on JF1 and if Monty gets the ball welp they're only giving up 3-4 yards. Maybe Getsy can figure out a way to get him untouched or in space more... maybe. But can we see that before we start giving him $25MM?
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dplank wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 12:55 pm According to this, he worked on his speed and runs a 4.44 now.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... eason-work
I can't call his personal speed coach an unbiased observer. ;)

That said, NFL NextGen Stats has this from Week 1 last year, which is a reliable source. So good on Monty, and he does seem to have been able to bring his speed up a notch or two. (It's also before his knee injury last year, so sustainability remains a question — Montgomery didn't show up again in the top 20 for the rest of the season, while Darnell Mooney, Jakeem Grant, and Justin Fields did multiple times.)
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IE I strongly disagree with your view of Monty as a player. But I do want to see him in this new offense before extending him, to ensure fit.
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:07 am
dplank wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 4:47 pm I wouldn’t pay him Zeke money or anything, but if the price is like 8M/yr or something I’m all over that.
You mean $8MM for 2 years, right? I know we all see players differently - but what have you seen in terms of actual measured production that deserves that kind of dollars?

Again I LOVE Monty as a guy and teammate. But I'd rather see the 4.4 shifty/elusive guys out there for the Bears- real threats to take it to the house on any play. A HUGE part of protecting JF1 is surrounding him with dangerous weapons and real threats so he isn't the only focus for the D. When Monty is out there they can just focus on JF1 and if Monty gets the ball welp they're only giving up 3-4 yards. Maybe Getsy can figure out a way to get him untouched or in space more... maybe. But can we see that before we start giving him $25MM?
I think it depends a ton on what exact style of offense and commitment to the run they make. A run heavy offense would make Monty more valuable as he is the type of back that gets better the more he is used IMO.

I don’t think we will know his true value until the games start for real.
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I don't think Monty as he has been used, is special to the point that I can't wait to extend him. But if he's given a heavier work load (because that might be something we actually do well this year), and he's productive and healthy, then yeah, I have no problem giving the guy a decent extension. But he's not a guy I'd want to over pay for based on what I've seen so far. This is his prove it year and if he knocks our socks off, that's a good problem to have.

Looking at the current guys at DT, we will need another guy who can contribute. Unless one of the UDFA's makes an impact in the rookie camps, or Ogun finds his way back to us, we will sign someone.
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I think the Bears have been swinging at RBs in the draft so they don't have to extend Monty. There's Henry in Tennessee, Taylor in Indy, and then a lot of guys whose role could be filled by another runner at a lower price.

As for other needs, don't sign any more veteran free agents. It's apparent that the Bears are in a total rebuild. It's apparent they're not prioritizing seeing what they have in Fields. So play the rookies/UDFAs and see what the team has.
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IE
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dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:44 am IE I strongly disagree with your view of Monty as a player. But I do want to see him in this new offense before extending him, to ensure fit.
Keep in mind it isn't my view on Monty - it is the data on Monty. It is 100% objective that he only broke a tackle once every 14 carries in '21, as measured by pro football reference. It is a fact that his median game is 16 carries, 3.6 ypc. And it is a fact his longest carry came early in the first game in '21 and after that it was dismal (I'm still hoping and giving him credit for injury recovery). I didn't make up what median means - it means what we should expect every time he trots out there. Medians get more meaningful with larger samples, and his is starting to tell the tale if it isn't a complete tale already. This is where I was at with Mitch 2 years ago after 3 complete years... take away the few outliers and he is what he is. It isn't an average that is skewed by a few good or bad games - it is "what he has been, approximately - far more often than not".

Why people like him so much as a football player or perceive him as having success when that isn't on paper is something I can't answer. I share the thrill everyone else gets when he makes 2-3 guys bring him down and gets a couple of extra yards several times per game. Those examples just don't balance out the runs where that doesn't happen.

My opinion again is I want to see Monty in the new system before I decide for myself and form an opinion whether he's worth extending (that would include a dollar amount). I cant see any value or sense in throwing out a dollar amount at this point if he doesn't do well in the new offense. It won't take long to see - only a few games in the fall. I'll say, though, that I wouldn't be surprised if they make their decision earlier than the regular season. If we see Monty playing much in the preseason that's a bad sign for him, IMO.

Someone else here said that Monty gets better with more carries, and that is a bit of a traditional RB theory/concept - but I don't know if it is true with Monty. His two best games he had like 11 carries, and of his top 10 games in ypc he only carried more than 16 times twice. In terms of his weak ypc games he has 25 (a lot) under 4 ypc and ten of those games he had above his median in carries. He has 14 games of 20 or more carries, and in only 4 of them did he average over 4.5 ypc. In five he was at 3 ypc.

It bothers me that the reaction to this is it is my opinion. It is data. I'm just the messenger.
Last edited by IE on Fri May 06, 2022 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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My personal take on Montgomery is that he's a Top Ten Overall Back

He has no warts on his game. He helps in the Passing Game - be it as an option out of the backfield or his Pass Pro Blitz Pickups.

I normally am very anti HB contracts - but if we are talking say 3 Years 21 ?

Im in
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RichH55 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:25 am My personal take on Montgomery is that he's a Top Ten Overall Back

He has no warts on his game. He helps in the Passing Game - be it as an option out of the backfield or his Pass Pro Blitz Pickups.

I normally am very anti HB contracts - but if we are talking say 3 Years 21 ?

Im in
So you want to extend a guy who does substantially less with his touches than replacement players, because.... ? This is just fascinating to me because it is emotion that is driving these opinions about Monty - and that doesn't make for good football decisions.
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:30 am
RichH55 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:25 am My personal take on Montgomery is that he's a Top Ten Overall Back

He has no warts on his game. He helps in the Passing Game - be it as an option out of the backfield or his Pass Pro Blitz Pickups.

I normally am very anti HB contracts - but if we are talking say 3 Years 21 ?

Im in
So you want to extend a guy who does substantially less with his touches than replacement players, because.... ? This is just fascinating to me because it is emotion that is driving these opinions about Monty - and that doesn't make for good football decisions.

I think situational context matters (alot) as to the replacement players part - So I reject that part of your argument.

And no - Not emotion.

1). I don't think 3 for 21 is particularly egregious.
2) We have all the Cap in the World. And I'm not sure how many guys there really will be to spend on. If you are FORCING me to overpay someone - Would I rather be too high on Montgomery by 2 million then walk into some of these bad Fa contracts? Yes.
3) We didn't pick a full time HB this year - and while I like Herbert I don't view him as an everydown back - SO I do view resigning Montgomery as a hedge on draft picks for 2023.

4). Again - I don't think there are Any Warts in his game. And I think the little things matter a decent chunk in HB (Pass Pro and being a Legit Passing Game piece).

Because yeah - I do subscribe to the theory that most HB YPC comes down to OL and situation - I think you can project 90-95% of the result just based on that rather than what the HB brings to the table (**)

(**) This is the best counter argument to going against Montgomery IMHO. HB really is (generally) pretty fungible
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:30 am
RichH55 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:25 am My personal take on Montgomery is that he's a Top Ten Overall Back

He has no warts on his game. He helps in the Passing Game - be it as an option out of the backfield or his Pass Pro Blitz Pickups.

I normally am very anti HB contracts - but if we are talking say 3 Years 21 ?

Im in
So you want to extend a guy who does substantially less with his touches than replacement players, because.... ? This is just fascinating to me because it is emotion that is driving these opinions about Monty - and that doesn't make for good football decisions.
In watching the games, the defense keyed on Monty all the time. He had some of the lowest yards to contact meaning he was getting hit in the backfield a lot.

Essentially he was trying to produce in an offense the rest of the NFL had figured out and knew what was coming after year 1 of Nagy.
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I hate Nagy as least as much as everyone else. I hate what the team became under him, and feel sorry for the players. But "the line keyed on Monty" and "I blame the Oline" don't account for Monty's lesser production than either Howard or Herbert (in admittedly small sample). I shared those median numbers above. Monty has done less in his opportunities than either of those guys - and that is *some* evidence that Monty's replacement level is not high (certainly not $7MM high!).

Why isn't Herbert an every down back? He is just as much as Monty is - they both are load guys coming out of college. Herbert is quicker and faster. These are rationalizations and not objective assessments.
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:00 am I hate Nagy as least as much as everyone else. I hate what the team became under him, and feel sorry for the players. But "the line keyed on Monty" and "I blame the Oline" don't account for Monty's lesser production than either Howard or Herbert (in admittedly small sample). I shared those median numbers above. Monty has done less in his opportunities than either of those guys - and that is *some* evidence that Monty's replacement level is not high (certainly not $7MM high!).

Why isn't Herbert an every down back? He is just as much as Monty is - they both are load guys coming out of college. Herbert is quicker and faster. These are rationalizations and not objective assessments.
Monty is a fan favorite because he's the RB for the Chicago Bears and he's a grinder. There have also been times where Monty has been the lone bright spot.

Just in my time watching this team I think the following RBs are better than Monty:

Payton
Neal Anderson
Thomas Jones
Matt Forte
Jordan Howard

Monty is a runner whose true excellence is in giving his maximum effort. He's not a home run hitter nor is he somebody that a defense is going to stack the box for.

That's one of the reasons why I wanted Kenneth Walker III in the draft.

When Monty becomes an FA I don't want to pay him $8M per year or whatever above average RBs get these days. It has nothing to do with undervaluing the RB position either. I think a dominating running game is a QBs best friend.

The problem is that Monty doesn't hit home runs.
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That's right, TMP. I'm trying to be kind in saying that his comp is Conner, and maybe he can emerge like Conner did last year in a new scheme. Conner has always been quite a bit more productive, though.

Monty is really probably closer to Joique Bell. Same guy physically. He was beloved in Detroit, a local from Wayne State, and a similar try hard guy as Monty. Same exact career yards per attempt. Both hover at or below 4 ypc when they get 14 + carries. The difference is Lions fans have learned to love a guy but still want him replaced because they're SO desperate to build a winner. That's where I am too.

Josh Jacobs is at around 4.1 / 75 yards and Devin Singletary is a full yard over Monty at 4.6 (but less than 50 per game, with a few less carries per game). Both of these guys came out with Monty and both of their teams are trying to replace them.
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:00 am I hate Nagy as least as much as everyone else. I hate what the team became under him, and feel sorry for the players. But "the line keyed on Monty" and "I blame the Oline" don't account for Monty's lesser production than either Howard or Herbert (in admittedly small sample). I shared those median numbers above. Monty has done less in his opportunities than either of those guys - and that is *some* evidence that Monty's replacement level is not high (certainly not $7MM high!).

Why isn't Herbert an every down back? He is just as much as Monty is - they both are load guys coming out of college. Herbert is quicker and faster. These are rationalizations and not objective assessments.
You are overselling Herbert's athleticism for starters. He's also not the biggest back in the world. And I think his pass catching and pass pro are weaker than Montgomery (*)

(*) He didn't have as much time in the system so the pass pro could get better - but he's also a smaller back
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I will say that if Herbert or the new kid show something early it wouldn’t surprise me to see Monty traded to a team needing a RB before the deadline.

I also see a team that will need to spend in such a large amount that it would be ok to overpay a little for homegrown talent. Structure it so the guaranteed money is up front and you can get out early if needed.
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IE - two words: Sample Size
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dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:44 am IE I strongly disagree with your view of Monty as a player. But I do want to see him in this new offense before extending him, to ensure fit.
Same here lest we forget that the kid is simply a very good football player whose always been committed to improving his game.

Evaluating him under Nagy, a HC who yearned for him, isn't doing justice to what I believe he's capable of. People can quote stats and metrics all they like but they don't replace watching him play and how many times he gets tough yardage against a stacked box.
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Bearfacts
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:00 am I hate Nagy as least as much as everyone else. I hate what the team became under him, and feel sorry for the players. But "the line keyed on Monty" and "I blame the Oline" don't account for Monty's lesser production than either Howard or Herbert (in admittedly small sample). I shared those median numbers above. Monty has done less in his opportunities than either of those guys - and that is *some* evidence that Monty's replacement level is not high (certainly not $7MM high!).

Why isn't Herbert an every down back? He is just as much as Monty is - they both are load guys coming out of college. Herbert is quicker and faster. These are rationalizations and not objective assessments.
I don't see Herbert as an every down back and I don't believe he ever will be unless somehow he finds ways to adapt to the new zone scheme better than Monty does. You're depending largely on a very small sampling of stats and metrics. I'm looking at the players themselves, their running styles and how they produce their yardage. If I needed 3-4 tough yards or I need a RB to carry inside the five yard line Monty is getting those carries. It's also those kind of carries that will impact his ypc stats.

The only way I'd be convinced otherwise is to actually see these replacement RB do what Monty can do even better than he does. I can't predict how Poles and the offensive staff will view him as far as an extension goes but we're gonna find out this year or very early next. If he's viewed as a top ten RB we're looking at somewhere around $8 mil per year or more so your cutting that in half won't even come close to what a top ten back gets. Look at who you get for $4 mil per year. Is that the level you see Monty at?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/av ... ning-back/
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dplank
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We saw this all through free agency on this board, the price expectations are unrealistic. Monty at 7-8M is about right and given our cap situation it makes sense to pay him IMO. 4M is laughably low and if that’s where we draw the line then he’s gone. Board consensus was we wouldn’t trade a 2nd round pick for DK Metcalf FFS, Seattle later REJECTED a top 10 pick for him - folks around here just massively undervalue talent.
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