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The Marshall Plan
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Food for thought about Montgomery.

I'd like to ask somebody to name The David Montgomery Game. You know, the game he came out and just kicked the shit out of everybody.

There isn't a single game, maybe the Minnesota game where he had 2 TDs and 146 yards on 32 carries, where he was an objective franchise RB. The Man.

Monty's Best Rushing Yardage Games:

12/20/2020 against Minnesota: 146
10/27/2019 against the Chargers: 135

His most TDs in one game? 2. He's done that a few times.

Otherwise I don't see anything special other than an emotional attachment to a player who gives his all. I respect that BTW. Was Aaron Rowand the best CF in baseball? Shit no. But that guy gave 110% and has the wounds to show for it.

There is also the McNagy Factor. I respect that too. McNagy could take the fun out of Christmas.

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dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:38 pm We saw this all through free agency on this board, the price expectations are unrealistic. Monty at 7-8M is about right and given our cap situation it makes sense to pay him IMO. 4M is laughably low and if that’s where we draw the line then he’s gone. Board consensus was we wouldn’t trade a 2nd round pick for DK Metcalf FFS, Seattle later REJECTED a top 10 pick for him - folks around here just massively undervalue talent.
You seem to be mistaking concepts.

Few, if any, rejected the notion of DK's Trade value being 2nd Round plus (now clearly 1st Round)

What they questioned is the smartness of trading a 1st (or 2nd and R. Smith for some reason) to pay him $25 million a year.

You get these are two different things right?
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RichH55 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 4:28 pm
dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:38 pm We saw this all through free agency on this board, the price expectations are unrealistic. Monty at 7-8M is about right and given our cap situation it makes sense to pay him IMO. 4M is laughably low and if that’s where we draw the line then he’s gone. Board consensus was we wouldn’t trade a 2nd round pick for DK Metcalf FFS, Seattle later REJECTED a top 10 pick for him - folks around here just massively undervalue talent.
You seem to be mistaking concepts.

Few, if any, rejected the notion of DK's Trade value being 2nd Round plus (now clearly 1st Round)

What they questioned is the smartness of trading a 1st (or 2nd and R. Smith for some reason) to pay him $25 million a year.

You get these are two different things right?


Like the Seahawks trading multiple 1sts and then paying him alot for J. Adams - terrible, terrible move

But it happened. Does the fact that it happened mean we undervalue Adams if we would have never done that in 1000 Years?
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IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:20 am
dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:44 am IE I strongly disagree with your view of Monty as a player. But I do want to see him in this new offense before extending him, to ensure fit.
Keep in mind it isn't my view on Monty - it is the data on Monty. It is 100% objective that he only broke a tackle once every 14 carries in '21, as measured by pro football reference. It is a fact that his median game is 16 carries, 3.6 ypc. And it is a fact his longest carry came early in the first game in '21 and after that it was dismal (I'm still hoping and giving him credit for injury recovery). I didn't make up what median means - it means what we should expect every time he trots out there. Medians get more meaningful with larger samples, and his is starting to tell the tale if it isn't a complete tale already. This is where I was at with Mitch 2 years ago after 3 complete years... take away the few outliers and he is what he is. It isn't an average that is skewed by a few good or bad games - it is "what he has been, approximately - far more often than not".

Why people like him so much as a football player or perceive him as having success when that isn't on paper is something I can't answer. I share the thrill everyone else gets when he makes 2-3 guys bring him down and gets a couple of extra yards several times per game. Those examples just don't balance out the runs where that doesn't happen.

My opinion again is I want to see Monty in the new system before I decide for myself and form an opinion whether he's worth extending (that would include a dollar amount). I cant see any value or sense in throwing out a dollar amount at this point if he doesn't do well in the new offense. It won't take long to see - only a few games in the fall. I'll say, though, that I wouldn't be surprised if they make their decision earlier than the regular season. If we see Monty playing much in the preseason that's a bad sign for him, IMO.

Someone else here said that Monty gets better with more carries, and that is a bit of a traditional RB theory/concept - but I don't know if it is true with Monty. His two best games he had like 11 carries, and of his top 10 games in ypc he only carried more than 16 times twice. In terms of his weak ypc games he has 25 (a lot) under 4 ypc and ten of those games he had above his median in carries. He has 14 games of 20 or more carries, and in only 4 of them did he average over 4.5 ypc. In five he was at 3 ypc.

It bothers me that the reaction to this is it is my opinion. It is data. I'm just the messenger.
100% objective? Bullshit. PFF is crap. Some of my favorite runs of Monty is him getting hit immediately and still making the LOS. Also, some of his most amazing runs are going through a Canalport at Rush Hour of defenders without a touch with simply amazing cuts. What's not surprising is that David's two games with his most yardage also coincided with his games with his most carries (32 and 27). What is surprising is that the two games with his largest YPC (10.27 and 9.36), he was only allowed 11 carries in each. What kind of sense does that make? What's even worse is how Nagy used him. He never allowed him to get on a roll. When David had a good gain, he'd fucking take him out. He did the same thing to Howard too. And Howard went from 5.2 and 4.2 YPC to 3.7 under Nagy. Fucking idiot.

I like Herbert, but his blocking right now is really suspect. Also, he broke in like gangbusters I think primarily because defenses weren't prepared for him and didn't key on him. He had 4.17, 5.11, and 5.56 YPC successively. By fourth game though, the Niners were prepared and he ended with only 3.7 YPC. Khalil is a slashing type runner and while he does have some moves and some power, they're not near what Monty's are. He is a good complementary back to Montgomery.

I agree we should wait to see how David performs in Getsy's system, but I wouldn't wait too long. I'd try to get something done by midseason if he's performing like I think he will.
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If the discussion was Monty at even 8, the convo is over. Assuming nothing crazy guarantee wise at 8/per Poles gets him to sign. 100%

He's going to look for quite a bit more than that.
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dplank wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:38 pm We saw this all through free agency on this board, the price expectations are unrealistic. Monty at 7-8M is about right and given our cap situation it makes sense to pay him IMO. 4M is laughably low and if that’s where we draw the line then he’s gone. Board consensus was we wouldn’t trade a 2nd round pick for DK Metcalf FFS, Seattle later REJECTED a top 10 pick for him - folks around here just massively undervalue talent.
And all over as well in virtually every fan forum. It's as if sites like OTC and Spotrac don't exist.

I think it's pretty cavalier to insist that a top ten NFL RB should only be worth half of what even the #9 and #10 backs are getting and those deals are already on the books. Over the next two years the cap should increase by as much as $40 mil and every agent worth his job knows that and will be using that as a yardstick in negotiations. Opinions are fine but they should be realistic too.

If an IT job is worth $80k a year and your company or one you're contemplating working for says we don't care $65k is our tops how many of those who love to set other peoples paychecks would say "well if that's all you're offering OK, I guess I'll take it"? It's up to Poles to decide what he'll pay but if he plans to keep Monty it won't be for $4-$5 mil per year. Realistically It would be much smarter to double that.
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I'll argue that in Monty's case and some others with Bear fans (e.g. ARob, and maybe a few others who are still on the team), Bear fans tend to massively OVER value Bear talent. I'm guessing it comes from previous emotional investments on Pace acquisition and the hope they brought with them (ARob, Graham, Trevathan, a few draft picks). I've fallen for that too, and pined for guys who are JAG really (e.g. Anthony Miller, Kwit) - but am pretty much over the Pace regime except for Tevin Jenkins and very few others.

"Monty is just plain a good football player" - sure that sounds great. Yes - he is pretty versatile, and I know that the new regime likes that. But statistically it rarely shows up. Statistically he is JAG - and it shows in the numbers (not opinions). And there are very few examples of him making explosive plays - it is just true. If they need 3-4 yards heck yeah he's good for that. But in today's NFL if you give 1/3 or more of your team's offensive touches to a guy who simply isn't very dangerous or explosive, can you really expect to compete with offenses that score 30 a game? Getting to "top 10" territory with underwhelming stats means the team is investing limited capital (touches) in low-return investments. Top 10 in volume should be paired with top 10 in production. Why are we setting the floor so low.

I didn't say Herbert is the Bears' future at RB. I understand the tendency to "go after the other guy" when the guy people are defending can't be easily defended with stats. So it becomes a discussion about intangibles and maybe size (even though both are fine size for an NFL RB). Personally I think the concept of "the load back" and the "RB getting lathered up" are relics of the past. I think now it is about two things: Overwhelming talent or athleticism and scheme/play-calling. I think Poles and Getsy are both from places where you can plug in the next guy up and he produces. Because he's an exceptional athlete and the play calls are going to be good. We've had neither. Sure, Monty will likely be better in the new offense (everyone should be). But let's see what he does with his touches vs guys like Juice and the rookie and heck even the 4.5 FB before we give him $25MM. :shocked:
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:29 pm
IE wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:20 am

Keep in mind it isn't my view on Monty - it is the data on Monty. It is 100% objective that he only broke a tackle once every 14 carries in '21, as measured by pro football reference. It is a fact that his median game is 16 carries, 3.6 ypc. And it is a fact his longest carry came early in the first game in '21 and after that it was dismal (I'm still hoping and giving him credit for injury recovery). I didn't make up what median means - it means what we should expect every time he trots out there. Medians get more meaningful with larger samples, and his is starting to tell the tale if it isn't a complete tale already. This is where I was at with Mitch 2 years ago after 3 complete years... take away the few outliers and he is what he is. It isn't an average that is skewed by a few good or bad games - it is "what he has been, approximately - far more often than not".

Why people like him so much as a football player or perceive him as having success when that isn't on paper is something I can't answer. I share the thrill everyone else gets when he makes 2-3 guys bring him down and gets a couple of extra yards several times per game. Those examples just don't balance out the runs where that doesn't happen.

My opinion again is I want to see Monty in the new system before I decide for myself and form an opinion whether he's worth extending (that would include a dollar amount). I cant see any value or sense in throwing out a dollar amount at this point if he doesn't do well in the new offense. It won't take long to see - only a few games in the fall. I'll say, though, that I wouldn't be surprised if they make their decision earlier than the regular season. If we see Monty playing much in the preseason that's a bad sign for him, IMO.

Someone else here said that Monty gets better with more carries, and that is a bit of a traditional RB theory/concept - but I don't know if it is true with Monty. His two best games he had like 11 carries, and of his top 10 games in ypc he only carried more than 16 times twice. In terms of his weak ypc games he has 25 (a lot) under 4 ypc and ten of those games he had above his median in carries. He has 14 games of 20 or more carries, and in only 4 of them did he average over 4.5 ypc. In five he was at 3 ypc.

It bothers me that the reaction to this is it is my opinion. It is data. I'm just the messenger.
100% objective? Bullshit. PFF is crap. Some of my favorite runs of Monty is him getting hit immediately and still making the LOS. Also, some of his most amazing runs are going through a Canalport at Rush Hour of defenders without a touch with simply amazing cuts. What's not surprising is that David's two games with his most yardage also coincided with his games with his most carries (32 and 27). What is surprising is that the two games with his largest YPC (10.27 and 9.36), he was only allowed 11 carries in each. What kind of sense does that make? What's even worse is how Nagy used him. He never allowed him to get on a roll. When David had a good gain, he'd fucking take him out. He did the same thing to Howard too. And Howard went from 5.2 and 4.2 YPC to 3.7 under Nagy. Fucking idiot.

I like Herbert, but his blocking right now is really suspect. Also, he broke in like gangbusters I think primarily because defenses weren't prepared for him and didn't key on him. He had 4.17, 5.11, and 5.56 YPC successively. By fourth game though, the Niners were prepared and he ended with only 3.7 YPC. Khalil is a slashing type runner and while he does have some moves and some power, they're not near what Monty's are. He is a good complementary back to Montgomery.

I agree we should wait to see how David performs in Getsy's system, but I wouldn't wait too long. I'd try to get something done by midseason if he's performing like I think he will.
I didn't say anything about PFF. The data is from pro football reference. It is just numbers not ranking or grading.

Honestly Yogi I think you're just seeing what you want to see on the "gets more yards with more carries" subject. Of course you get more yards the more carries you get. And sure Monty's two biggest games yardage-wise are ones where he carried the most. But that's just math. If you look at all his games with a decent amount of carries, the number of games where he's really producing yardage per carry are few and far between. In 2021 the instances of him breaking a tackle to get extra yards or simply get back to the LOS are one in 14 carries... once a game.

Like everyone else, I like how he spins and lunges and gets extra yards. But that just gets him to the stats I've shared.

I can't argue against the notion that Monty's numbers are weak because of the scheme and line. i agree that is likely the case to some extent. But we don't know, really. I know you don't like PFF but I don't think we can seriously pretend that Monty never got any running lanes or opportunities that perhaps a more shifty back couldn't have taken better advantage of. The Bear Oline had some good games and moments with the running game over the past couple of years, and IIRC they were rated mostly in the middle of the pack for ground game. Herbert did have a VERY small sample - but his games were against some pretty good teams. And gaining less than 4 ypc in that one game against the Niner isn't shameful. The Niner D was good. It isn't fair to dismiss Juice in the same situation.

Anyway we'll see soon. Like I've mentioned, Aaron Jones isn't any faster than Monty. There is hope that he's much better than his numbers. But I just wouldn't bet $25MM on it quite yet.
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Looking at Monty's stats from Pro Football Reference the one thing that pops out above all else is the number of 1st down carries and receptions he's gotten. We've seen this in his highlight videos as well. He has an acute awareness of where the sticks are and he fights to get to or over them. Right now we don't have another back who can do that or score on shorter yardage runs like he does.

Does he lack explosiveness? He's rung up some long runs before including an 80 yarder for a score. But again that's not why he was drafted. He was drafted for what I referred to in my first paragraph and I will continue to insist that a team who wants to return to running the ball far more than Nagy did and is willing to build the right kind of OL to do it with can always use a back like Monty.

Whether or not Poles elects to extend him will in all likelihood depend upon the price but IMHO he's a much better back than Howard was and he's a better #1 back than Khalil Herbert. Assuming Ebner makes the final roster between him and Herbert we'll have two other backs who may give us the kind of explosiveness some believe we need but we also nee and every down tough back who can catch and that's what Monty brings to the table week in and week out. IMHO it would be a mistake to lose him in this offense.
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Bearfacts wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 11:25 am Looking at Monty's stats from Pro Football Reference the one thing that pops out above all else is the number of 1st down carries and receptions he's gotten. We've seen this in his highlight videos as well. He has an acute awareness of where the sticks are and he fights to get to or over them. Right now we don't have another back who can do that or score on shorter yardage runs like he does.

Does he lack explosiveness? He's rung up some long runs before including an 80 yarder for a score. But again that's not why he was drafted. He was drafted for what I referred to in my first paragraph and I will continue to insist that a team who wants to return to running the ball far more than Nagy did and is willing to build the right kind of OL to do it with can always use a back like Monty.

Whether or not Poles elects to extend him will in all likelihood depend upon the price but IMHO he's a much better back than Howard was and he's a better #1 back than Khalil Herbert. Assuming Ebner makes the final roster between him and Herbert we'll have two other backs who may give us the kind of explosiveness some believe we need but we also nee and every down tough back who can catch and that's what Monty brings to the table week in and week out. IMHO it would be a mistake to lose him in this offense.
How do you know with such certainty that Juice, Ebner, Blasingame or Evans can't punch the ball in from 3-4 yards? How do you KNOW he's a better RB than Herbert? That's just pure opinion, and completely unsubstantiated. I've seen Nagy have Monty run 2 or even 3 times on the goal line to get in. We've all watched the same games. I know how hard Monty works. But you have no basis for saying what you're saying, other than "Nagy handed him the ball instead of his Rookie 6th rounder". Which, in itself, does NOT justify what you said. Aaron Jones was a late round back. Maybe the difference between the Pack and the Bears is the Pack plays the guys who can deliver the most?

We have to stop taking the 2-3 long runs Monty has ripped off and interpolating that into an implication "he can do that" on a regular basis. It is a fact that he does not do that nearly enough - the long runs are what balance out the short stops to result in a higher ypc. Please show me any stat that shows Monty deserves to be known for making long runs. I'm dying to find something to hang my hat on there... but the more I look the more convinced I am that he is JAG. JAG with heart is still JAG. Just like Joique Bell and Jordan Howard were JAG even though with enough carries and heart they compiled numbers and had a lot of fans.
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Just want to point out one stat here:

Yards before contact per rushing attempt--1.9. 1.9 YARDS ! Are you fucking kidding me? That means that half of his APC of 3.8 yards is gained AFTER contact.
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IE wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 12:37 pm
Bearfacts wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 11:25 am Looking at Monty's stats from Pro Football Reference the one thing that pops out above all else is the number of 1st down carries and receptions he's gotten. We've seen this in his highlight videos as well. He has an acute awareness of where the sticks are and he fights to get to or over them. Right now we don't have another back who can do that or score on shorter yardage runs like he does.

Does he lack explosiveness? He's rung up some long runs before including an 80 yarder for a score. But again that's not why he was drafted. He was drafted for what I referred to in my first paragraph and I will continue to insist that a team who wants to return to running the ball far more than Nagy did and is willing to build the right kind of OL to do it with can always use a back like Monty.

Whether or not Poles elects to extend him will in all likelihood depend upon the price but IMHO he's a much better back than Howard was and he's a better #1 back than Khalil Herbert. Assuming Ebner makes the final roster between him and Herbert we'll have two other backs who may give us the kind of explosiveness some believe we need but we also nee and every down tough back who can catch and that's what Monty brings to the table week in and week out. IMHO it would be a mistake to lose him in this offense.
How do you know with such certainty that Juice, Ebner, Blasingame or Evans can't punch the ball in from 3-4 yards? How do you KNOW he's a better RB than Herbert? That's just pure opinion, and completely unsubstantiated. I've seen Nagy have Monty run 2 or even 3 times on the goal line to get in. We've all watched the same games. I know how hard Monty works. But you have no basis for saying what you're saying, other than "Nagy handed him the ball instead of his Rookie 6th rounder". Which, in itself, does NOT justify what you said. Aaron Jones was a late round back. Maybe the difference between the Pack and the Bears is the Pack plays the guys who can deliver the most?

We have to stop taking the 2-3 long runs Monty has ripped off and interpolating that into an implication "he can do that" on a regular basis. It is a fact that he does not do that nearly enough - the long runs are what balance out the short stops to result in a higher ypc. Please show me any stat that shows Monty deserves to be known for making long runs. I'm dying to find something to hang my hat on there... but the more I look the more convinced I am that he is JAG. JAG with heart is still JAG. Just like Joique Bell and Jordan Howard were JAG even though with enough carries and heart they compiled numbers and had a lot of fans.
IE you’re welcome to your opinion but you are on an island here, it’s an odd hill to die on. Monty is one of the few good players we have 🤷‍♂️
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I don't see IE all by himself on that island. I think Monty is decent, but I don't think he's anything special. YMMV.
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Nagy’s whole offense sucked donkey balls from 19-21. It’s was very average in 18 also, but it was semi new and teams didn’t have enough film to study his concepts and tendencies. I don’t see Monty becoming Terrell Davis, but a productive leveon Bell might not be a bad comp.
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thunderspirit wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 8:28 pm I don't see IE all by himself on that island. I think Monty is decent, but I don't think he's anything special. YMMV.

:wave:
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I've been driving this bus for a long time.

Unless he shows a big breakout, playing in a Nagyless offense...goodbye.
If he's who he's been most of the last 3 years, including last season, 'decent' may be overly generous.
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My bad guys I had no idea - seems such an odd take. Question: why does every other player get the McNagy consideration but not Monty? Also, assuming you watched the games and aren’t just reading stat sheets, how do you account for him getting bum rushed at or behind the LOS so often?
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Count me on the Monty is replaceable team. Like watching Monty but unless it's a very team friendly deal let him walk. Hope he has a great year this year and nets us a high comp pick after. Then i'll enjoy watching Herbert(or whoever) until they move on and we draft another replacement.
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dplank wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 am My bad guys I had no idea - seems such an odd take. Question: why does every other player get the McNagy consideration but not Monty? Also, assuming you watched the games and aren’t just reading stat sheets, how do you account for him getting bum rushed at or behind the LOS so often?
1) I don't think all positions are as impacted by bad coaching/schemes as others. For example, an edge rusher and a safety are certainly both affected by bad defense scheme/coaching, but not nearly to the same degree. In the same way, I think HB is much less impacted than other positions. It relates to how plug and play HBs generally are.

2) Monty's stats and performance look very similar, both in college and under Nagy. In 5 combined seasons getting the full load:
5/5 he was durable
5/5 he caught moderate to a lot of passes
4/5 he had unmistakably bad ypc*

You can't blame Iowa State on Nagy. Monty's been very consistently the same guy. If you had to lay odds, I think you'd be crazy not to bet heavily that he is what he's shown for the last 5 years. Whatever it is - burst/speed, vision, patience, elusiveness, decision-making - he consistently gets hit early a lot, breaks tackles, but still is gaining below average and breaking very few long ones.


* Note that standards (based on averages) for a college ypc in a HB that goes on to be drafted are very different from what a pro HB averages
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I admit that I tend to really like and overvalue almost every RB we have, so I have a built in fudge factor for that. I loved Jordan Howard, but he's done jack squat since leaving here. Thought ATrain was gonna be great. Loved me some Jeremy Langford lol. So maybe I'm overvaluing Monty too, but watching that dude play against a stacked deck and work his way to any degree of success has really won me over.
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I just don't get how, even after pointing it out over & over, there is the impression that I don't like Monty or subjectively think he's bad. It's the opposite - subjectively, I can assure everyone that in almost every game over the past few years I've mentioned during the game that he "looks like he's the only one trying out there" (Mooney too).

But OBJECTIVELY (his stats), I recognize that his production in his opportunities has been truly dismal (and got worse last year although I do attribute that to a bit of injury recovery). Very few starting RB do the same or less with similar opportunity. That's just really a fact, and yeah I guess I'll die on a hill of facts knowing that it is basically right. It's the same thing as pointing out how poorly Mitch performed once samples became significant. It is just numbers and actual results.

Lines aren't bad on every play. Defenses make mistakes. Really good players should be able to take advantage of that when it happens, and make big plays. I DO blame Nagy for minimizing opportunity and hope that is the explanation for Monty's truly bad stats as a starting / load carrying NFL RB.

I'll guess that if he can't get his ypc up to the 4.5 range and produce a few explosive plays per game, they're going to move on quickly.
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IE wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 11:39 am I just don't get how, even after pointing it out over & over, there is the impression that I don't like Monty or subjectively think he's bad. It's the opposite - subjectively, I can assure everyone that in almost every game over the past few years I've mentioned during the game that he "looks like he's the only one trying out there" (Mooney too).

But OBJECTIVELY (his stats), I recognize that his production in his opportunities has been truly dismal (and got worse last year although I do attribute that to a bit of injury recovery). Very few starting RB do the same or less with similar opportunity. That's just really a fact, and yeah I guess I'll die on a hill of facts knowing that it is basically right. It's the same thing as pointing out how poorly Mitch performed once samples became significant. It is just numbers and actual results.

Lines aren't bad on every play. Defenses make mistakes. Really good players should be able to take advantage of that when it happens, and make big plays. I DO blame Nagy for minimizing opportunity and hope that is the explanation for Monty's truly bad stats as a starting / load carrying NFL RB.

I'll guess that if he can't get his ypc up to the 4.5 range and produce a few explosive plays per game, they're going to move on quickly.
Still disconnected logic IMO. On one thread you say that you don't believe the OL personnel are at fault and blame McNagy, but you don't apply the same logic to Monty and point to his stats. Which is it? You mention it, but claim objectivity because of stats...
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IE wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 11:39 am I just don't get how, even after pointing it out over & over, there is the impression that I don't like Monty or subjectively think he's bad. It's the opposite - subjectively, I can assure everyone that in almost every game over the past few years I've mentioned during the game that he "looks like he's the only one trying out there" (Mooney too).

But OBJECTIVELY (his stats), I recognize that his production in his opportunities has been truly dismal (and got worse last year although I do attribute that to a bit of injury recovery). Very few starting RB do the same or less with similar opportunity. That's just really a fact, and yeah I guess I'll die on a hill of facts knowing that it is basically right. It's the same thing as pointing out how poorly Mitch performed once samples became significant. It is just numbers and actual results.

Lines aren't bad on every play. Defenses make mistakes. Really good players should be able to take advantage of that when it happens, and make big plays. I DO blame Nagy for minimizing opportunity and hope that is the explanation for Monty's truly bad stats as a starting / load carrying NFL RB.

I'll guess that if he can't get his ypc up to the 4.5 range and produce a few explosive plays per game, they're going to move on quickly.
If the OL is as bad as everyone seems to be claiming, his stats are going to decline even more this coming season.
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You got to stand out as a RB to get paid.
You’ve literally got to be a serial matchwinner.
I just don’t think Monty is quite there. As good as he is he’s probably not getting an extension without a break out half season
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:26 pm You got to stand out as a RB to get paid.
You’ve literally got to be a serial matchwinner.
I just don’t think Monty is quite there. As good as he is he’s probably not getting an extension without a break out half season
This. The offense has to run through you for the most part.
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dplank wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 11:45 am
IE wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 11:39 am I just don't get how, even after pointing it out over & over, there is the impression that I don't like Monty or subjectively think he's bad. It's the opposite - subjectively, I can assure everyone that in almost every game over the past few years I've mentioned during the game that he "looks like he's the only one trying out there" (Mooney too).

But OBJECTIVELY (his stats), I recognize that his production in his opportunities has been truly dismal (and got worse last year although I do attribute that to a bit of injury recovery). Very few starting RB do the same or less with similar opportunity. That's just really a fact, and yeah I guess I'll die on a hill of facts knowing that it is basically right. It's the same thing as pointing out how poorly Mitch performed once samples became significant. It is just numbers and actual results.

Lines aren't bad on every play. Defenses make mistakes. Really good players should be able to take advantage of that when it happens, and make big plays. I DO blame Nagy for minimizing opportunity and hope that is the explanation for Monty's truly bad stats as a starting / load carrying NFL RB.

I'll guess that if he can't get his ypc up to the 4.5 range and produce a few explosive plays per game, they're going to move on quickly.
Still disconnected logic IMO. On one thread you say that you don't believe the OL personnel are at fault and blame McNagy, but you don't apply the same logic to Monty and point to his stats. Which is it? You mention it, but claim objectivity because of stats...
It is because I think some of those Olinemen can & will play better. Part of that logic is, if they are ALL looking bad maybe they're sort of being made to look bad. I do believe coaching and scheme have a much bigger impact on Oline performance than they do for RB performance. We've seen Whitehair be good before. Daniels too. Most of Monty's better games over the last 2 years exactly correlates to games where Mustipher started. And then since everyone was excited about the rookie OTs last year I'm going to give them the benefit. So I have been placing more blame on the team-level stuff (coaching, scheme, calls) for the Oline.

But like Moriarty pointed out, Monty is what he is, and has been for a while. His NFL performance is pretty similar to his college performance, and his NFL performance has been very consistent in his 3 years. And although he has improved his breakaway speed through training (good for him), he is still not especially sudden or elusive or explosive - and that is evident at some points in most games no matter who you're playing behind. If there is an Aaron Jones in there, it would be a hugely welcome surprise. If I was a betting man (and I am), I'd guess that Juice was built more in Jones' image in a Packer-like offense than Monty is. I really like Monty as a person so I hope it turns out he's been the biggest victim of Nagy of all. But that's hoping for something we've never seen from him.
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wab wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:32 pm
Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:26 pm You got to stand out as a RB to get paid.
You’ve literally got to be a serial matchwinner.
I just don’t think Monty is quite there. As good as he is he’s probably not getting an extension without a break out half season
This. The offense has to run through you for the most part.
One of the things I'm most excited about from the draft, is getting a really nice crew of young blood on the Oline - perfectly timed with the introduction to a new system that will be implemented and called based on what the new OC believes they can do best. I'd venture to guess that they can take any two of the OTs and any two of the OGs and any one of the 2-3 Centers and trot them out there this fall... and they will play better than the Oline's we've seen the last few years. And it will be because of coaching/scheme.
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There's honestly segments of Bears Fandom I think where the Nagy adjustment has gone overboard. Not for everyone, just some.

Especially for an individual player it's easier in a fairly narrow range to grade their talent irrespective of scheme failures. The scheme upgrades will hopefully be a tide that raises all boats, but individually I don't think we shouldn't expect tons of variances from players. It's just thar weaknesses can be minimized better and strngeths highlighted more.

But for a guy like Monty, I do think we have a pretty good at who he is. He's a volume/short yardage back. Those things have value but likely are inconsistent with a big extension at the level he does them at.
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I think he’s going to bust out big, I do believe Getsy will run smart and run a lot, less predictable. WRs that block with effort, and he busts more big plays without a lot more volume. If healthy, I’m calling 1,100 rushing yards.
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dplank wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:13 pm I think he’s going to bust out big, I do believe Getsy will run smart and run a lot, less predictable. WRs that block with effort, and he busts more big plays without a lot more volume. If healthy, I’m calling 1,100 rushing yards.
And when that happens that would be the best thing that could possibly happen to Fields.
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You know what's weird? Coming out, I wasn't at all convinced about Monty. Wuly, I think was the one fully in his corner. I wanted Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, or Devin Singletary. But as a Bear, Monty won me over. TOTALLY. For the life of me, I can't understand how anybody can watch this and not consider Monty a "SPECIAL" back:



Tell me he's not "explosive." Gawd, I love watching him. I realize that how dangerous it is to scout off of highlights, but this is nearly 24 minutes of highlights acquired in only three years in the league. And you know what, some of what I consider his most amazing runs aren't even included--those that involve him just getting back to the LOS.

But to each his own I guess. I'm with DP strongly believing that Monty is going to have a breakout year this year. If he can get any help at all from the OL, I'm absolutely certain of it. And I've already taken names of the skeptical here so that I can tease them mercilessly.
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