Changing Face of Bears Defensive Line

[RichH55]

17 games of Jaquan Brisker might, in fact, give us a better chance at winning games in 2022 than 7 games of Khalil Mack. (YMMV.) Mack is the better player when on the field, no doubt. But availability matters.

As for the one-year contracts, I don't see them setting a rebuild back at all. (We absolutely agree that's what this is.)

If the player doesn't perform well, they can't say they weren't given a chance.
If the player performs well and both sides want to extend, that's what happens.
If the player performs well and they don't want to resign, they play into the compensatory pick agenda for which several have chided Poles this offseason. You get a year of production and a comp pick. This is what good teams do.

Thunder -

I believe you are off on the Compensatory pick stuff.

Certainly I think its fair to say I was driving the "make sure" you get the 3rd for Arob this year (for next years draft) - Pretty plain (I posted it ALOT - ha)

Next years crop of our OWN FA - Will be markedly weaker than this year - even if you assume good years from Pringle and Mo. and that you'd let them walk after good years

HB contracts are not monsters typically - and Montgomery is probably our best FA to be (Compare with a guy like Dalton - certainly not an elite FA - but a good backup QB contract is surprisingly close to a solid #1 HB contract in practice)

There is also the fact that we should be - in several ways (be it Fields window really opens in 2023 as he took a nice step forward in 2022) - or simply the fact that we have 100+ million in Cap Room and not too many in house guys to spend it on (R. Smith, Mooney, J. Johnson...ummm?)

So even if Montgomery gets a nice FA HB contract (give him 9 million a year for this), Pringle and Mo play well AND you don't resign them

You are NOT getting a 3rd Round pick- and once you factor in our own signings - We are unlikely to qualify for any picks at all due to cancellations

I think this offseason was decently unique in that respect where you needed to watch the signings more carefully

[RichH55]

A couple of things here on the Comp pick.

First, it's not a third rounder, not really. The pick comes AFTER every other team has picked in the third round, so in effect, it's really a pick between Round 3 and Round 4. And as has already been mentioned, it's a future pick, so its value decreases by a round. So, in reality, it's a pick between Round 4 and Round 5 in present day value. As I've already contended, the value of that third rounder isn't near what most people originally believe. And even if the third had been this year, it wouldn't have even come close to the selection we used for Velus Jones. In fact, the Trade Value Chart difference between our selection of Jones and the highest third round compensatory pick this year was 128 points. That's the equivalent of the 29th pick in the third round in just the difference between our pick and the compensatory pick if it had been this year.

But be that as it may, I ask again, for those of you who would have sacrificed two of Poles' comp qualifying signings this year (Pringle, Patrick, AQM, Jones, Morrow) and who would you have taken instead (under 2.5 mill before the draft or any signing since the draft). Let's see how it stacks up. What about it DP?

Its a Late 3rd - true. For the Bears purposes 2023 v. 2022 doesn't make a ton of difference - so going to largely ignore that part

In part of the debate - I certainly always expected Hicks to be part of it - He wasn't - and I can't hold that against Poles

Some of it is - On Morrow - Whom we like - if you beat him up for like 250 K (or so) on that contract - then he doesn't count against the

Yogi - you can also sign all the guys who were cut - Don't forget that part - Its important

Patrick would be my number 1 signing. Then I'm taking Pringle/Jones. I liked all these signings.

So I have to:
1) Not Sign AQM? Ok. No problem Or tell him we will be interested after the Draft. (Possiblity we could do that I put at 10-20% - SO lets assume he's gone)

I am out a rotational DE . Darn.

2). Morrow - This is a player we both like.

Scenarios:
1). We beat him up on the 1 year deal for 300 K (give or take) - He's taking a relatively low contract - 1 year- early in the process - Meaning he viewed the Bears as maybe his best opportunity on the prove it deal

So let's say playing hard ball is 50-50 - But for sake of argument it goes against us.

2). He signs one year deal - balls out - leaves in FA - 50-50? (Or only plays ok? Or is hurt? etc. Odds he isn't a Bear in 2023? 50-50 maybe lower)

Odds you get a comp pick - especially a good one? Under 5%. (You have to spend a lot of money next offseason - and his position doesn't typically get a ton of FA money)

3) He signs elsewhere - balls out - Signs with Bears in 2023? Possible 25-35% (We liked the player seemingly - the tape will double down on that even if elsewhere - and we have just so much money to spend.


4) I don't get him - He will never come here - we maybe draft a guy like Carpenter in the 7th round. Or maybe its more Sanborn time who is on a rookie contract


Lets say its even more pure (and sorry Bearsfacts for using Logic and Hypotheticals) - Would I trade AQM and Morrow for a late 3rd Round pick and somewhere between 6 million and 11 million in extra Cap Room?

Yes. Yes I would.

If Morrow leaves after 1 year (when we won't be contenders) is this even more obvious?

Yes. Yes it is.

[Bearfacts]

Facts: I know it's the wrong Jay. I thought that was what made it funny. Guess not.

DP: I hated the Mack trade. Still do. I so wanted to see Mack and Quinn as DEs in a 4-3. But I'm becoming more and more convinced that Mack really wanted out. I don't think he wanted to play DE in a 4-3. Maybe, he didn't think he could handle the consistent strain of it health wise. As I've said, if Mack really wanted out, and I think more and more that he did, I believe that Poles was doing him a solid. Notice there hasn't been much complaint from the team on the trade. I believe there would have been considerably more grumbling if Poles had made this trade of team leader like Mack who didn't really want to go.

But you really didn't answer my question. Don't you think there's a value in determining free agent fits in our system and shouldn't our GM be allowed to pursue those free agents he believes may fit? Also, with the money we'll have next season, any of those free agents that he signed this year that prove themselves for us, I'm pretty certain aren't even going to make it to free agency next year. Finally, if those free agents see the beginning of something happening here (like the development of Fields), I think they're going to considering giving a discount...or at least the benefit of the doubt. For those clamoring for tanking, and I know that's NOT you DP, consider that any free agent signing for a shitty ass team finishing with a Top 5 draft pick is going to demand premium to sign.

Just some thoughts.

I was laughing along with you. I tried to post a Let's Make a Deal pic but it didn't take.

I'm in complete agreement with your second paragraph. To me it would be inconceivable for none of Poles one year deal players to not receive longer term offers or at the very least another one or two year offer. The only thing I'd have an issue with is extending a player who hasn't earned it because Poles refused to admit he made a mistake signing the guy to begin with. But that's not the Poles I'm seeing now.

As for the Mack trade I was not happy with it initially but I also understood why it was done. We might debate whether or not Poles should have marketed him more heavily to other teams but those who may claim they would have given more are saying that after the deal was done so I don't give it much weight. If they were interested in Mack they would have approached Poles about it and made an offer.

We got what we could and used the 2nd round pick on a key addition to the secondary but the real benefit was shedding $50 mil plus worth of cost that can be used to rebuild the roster with younger talent. Mack earned enough respect while here to deserve some consideration as well and he got that. Things like that can only help Poles reputation as a GM going forward. So while it may be a short term loss it can also be a longer term win.

[dplank]

I’d love to see some data on 1 year prove it deals, and how often they are retained by the team who signed them to that deal. I really think you guys are off base on this. We have near no advantage to keep them if they play well, the player has the control in that scenario NOT the Bears. This cuts both ways, if Morrow signed a prove it deal in Philly and played well, we could still sign him as a UFA in 2023 - AND have the extra pick.

[dplank]

Yogi not avoiding your question, already posted once about it - there’s at least a dozen guys that we could’ve signed after the draft to offset any of the guys we signed. I’d choose 2 from any of the defensive signings. Some are still available right now.

[Yogi da Bear]

Yogi not avoiding your question, already posted once about it - there’s at least a dozen guys that we could’ve signed after the draft to offset any of the guys we signed. I’d choose 2 from any of the defensive signings. Some are still available right now.

I must have missed it. Could you post a link? I think it would be interesting to see how your substitutions stack up down the line with what Poles did.

Problem with Morrow playing in Philly is that I don't believe they play the same defense, so even if he did well there, it wouldn't mean he'd do well here. Plus, by doing this, Poles gives him a year learning our system and acclimating with the rest of the defense. It would be great to see Morrow and Ro with the rapport of Url and Briggs.

[Bearfacts]

I’d love to see some data on 1 year prove it deals, and how often they are retained by the team who signed them to that deal. I really think you guys are off base on this. We have near no advantage to keep them if they play well, the player has the control in that scenario NOT the Bears. This cuts both ways, if Morrow signed a prove it deal in Philly and played well, we could still sign him as a UFA in 2023 - AND have the extra pick.

OK, that fair enough but why are you asking someone else to supply that data? If you believe it's not all that pivotal or effective to Poles strategy and how this roster and future rosters are built it should be on you to research it and present the facts along with your position that it doesn't help as much as others believe it does including the guy whose paid to make that decision.

Another point might be what do other teams do? Are we to believe that Poles is the only GM whose signing players to short term deals as a way to fill roster positions with vets who fit their schemes and who may also have upside playing in those schemes? So shouldn't that research include all 32 teams and then over what period of time?

Or in lieu of that can we just wait 'til the end of the 2022 season to find out how many of Poles one year deals have earned an offer to stick with the Bears based on their performance? If that's the only thing that has any importance to us as Bears fans wouldn't that simplify the whole thing for us? Why do we care about players and deals that have no impact on the Bears?

If you believe it will help make your point I'm anxious to see what you come up with.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

[dplank]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

There is no data regarding 1 year prove it deals so far as I can find. They have proposed a hypothetical that they can't prove with data, and I disagree with that hypothetical. Sorry Bearfacts et all, but you have no claim to being any more right than I do and I have no additional burden of proof than you do. I could have simply responded with a "prove your thesis" post like you did, but I didn't want to be a doucher about it so I simply made my argument instead. It's difficult to find data cause we're not just talking about 1 year deals here, specifically looking for "prove it" type deals where a player then "proves it" and tracking what happens the following year. If you can find some data, please share. But again - I have no additional burden of proof than you do.

Regarding specific players - I've answered it generally but since you want specifics, I'll save you the 15 seconds it would take you to find it on your own.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Our 5 free agents that cost us a 3rd round pick played these positions: DE, LB, DT, WR, G/C

Here is a list of players that we could have signed instead at these positions, after the comp formula would have granted us a 3rd round pick. They may not be perfect, they represent a "one year stop gap" type player that wouldn't be a dramatic drop off from what we got - in some cases they are actually better players.

WR - Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Cole Beasley (Landry went for less than Pringle, the other two are still available) . I left these out, but you could also include Julio Jones, TY Hilton, and OBJ - but I thought the first three were better fits. I'd STILL like to sign Fuller.

LB - Joe Shoebert, Nick Kwiatkowski, Anthony Hitchens (Kwit signed after the draft, the other two are still available), DRAFT (ILB's are cheap draft assets, I view Morrow as an unnecessary signing, I'd either nab one of the guys mentioned or have drafted someone)

DT - Narrower spot if looking at only 3T's, so I'd probably keep the Jones signing as 1 of the 3 to kep. But some others include Suh (who we're apparantly talking to now), Sheldon Richardson is still available also. But with this one, the better path if we didn't sign Jones would have been to draft a 3T (another option we could have taken that would have still allowed us to get that 3rd round pick). Oh, and OGun is still available LOL so there's another.

DE - A lot of options here, I'll just focus on guys who are STILL available: Carl Nassib, JPP, Takarist McKinley, Ryan Kerrigan, there's more but these guys are all at least as good, in in JPP/Kerrigans case significantly better, than what we got. Nassib/McKinly are both young also.

G/C - JC Tretter has been discussed a lot here, still available. FLowers, Price, Duvarney-Tardiff are other options. But I'd keep the Lucas signing, I liked that one a lot.

So, I just gave you guys 20 free agents - all at the positions in question, most of which are still available right now. Now you need to do a little work for yourself and find ANY combination that when swapped out for what we did would be better to swap out and add a 3rd round pick instead. I can come up with a bunch. Here's a couple so you can see how this works:

Scenario 1: Don't sign Pringle or Morrow. Sign Landry and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.
Scenario 2: Don't sign Muhammed or Morrow. Sign Nassib and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.

There are dozens of scenarios in here that work. There you go Pus, no go call out the other side with equal gusto. Because they hadn't provided any supporting evidence either, only conjecture.

[RichH55]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

Pus,

I'll put that back to you (in another way) - What odds would you give the following scenarios:

1) I offer any team Muhammad and Morrow for a Late 3rd Next year (they take entire cap hits) and they accept

2). You play hardball with Morrow and he takes a contract with same money but no Active Game Bonuses (Potentially 500 K less )

3) Morrow plays a year for another team and then signs with Bears

4) Morrow plays good-great and walks in FA. (Bonus odds we get any comp pick for it, or Odds on it being a 3rd Rounder (Hint: It's basically 0% on being a 3rd)


And you could have had Myles Jack this offseason (For just one example) and he would not count against the compensatory formula

[dplank]

Yep add Myles Jack and various others in that same category type - I did a shorthand method looking at available FA's, but that leaves out even more examples that accomplish the same thing. We're well over 20 now. And I wasn't even heading down the subtlety of contracts side of things, which is even more egregious a mistake IMO but had too much nuance I thought to be fairly discussed here as strawmen were sure to be invoked.

So, back on you guys - we've shown far more of our work here than you have - let's see it. Picking around the edges won't work here, you can selectively shit on a bunch of these options - but the math is the math - ONLY 2 NEED TO WORK for this to be a winning argument - so you'd need to shit on all of them, with detail - not just one here or there.

I really don't understand why folks have to go to the mattresses on every single move Poles makes - we all know he's not perfect and he's not going to be perfect. I still like Poles and like the direction he's taking this team, it's not heresy to point out what I see as a mistake here and there. Ultimately it's JMO, something everyone has around here.

[Bearfacts]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

There is no data regarding 1 year prove it deals so far as I can find. They have proposed a hypothetical that they can't prove with data, and I disagree with that hypothetical. Sorry Bearfacts et all, but you have no claim to being any more right than I do and I have no additional burden of proof than you do. I could have simply responded with a "prove your thesis" post like you did, but I didn't want to be a doucher about it so I simply made my argument instead. It's difficult to find data cause we're not just talking about 1 year deals here, specifically looking for "prove it" type deals where a player then "proves it" and tracking what happens the following year. If you can find some data, please share. But again - I have no additional burden of proof than you do.

Regarding specific players - I've answered it generally but since you want specifics, I'll save you the 15 seconds it would take you to find it on your own.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Our 5 free agents that cost us a 3rd round pick played these positions: DE, LB, DT, WR, G/C

Here is a list of players that we could have signed instead at these positions, after the comp formula would have granted us a 3rd round pick. They may not be perfect, they represent a "one year stop gap" type player that wouldn't be a dramatic drop off from what we got - in some cases they are actually better players.

WR - Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Cole Beasley (Landry went for less than Pringle, the other two are still available) . I left these out, but you could also include Julio Jones, TY Hilton, and OBJ - but I thought the first three were better fits. I'd STILL like to sign Fuller.

LB - Joe Shoebert, Nick Kwiatkowski, Anthony Hitchens (Kwit signed after the draft, the other two are still available), DRAFT (ILB's are cheap draft assets, I view Morrow as an unnecessary signing, I'd either nab one of the guys mentioned or have drafted someone)

DT - Narrower spot if looking at only 3T's, so I'd probably keep the Jones signing as 1 of the 3 to kep. But some others include Suh (who we're apparantly talking to now), Sheldon Richardson is still available also. But with this one, the better path if we didn't sign Jones would have been to draft a 3T (another option we could have taken that would have still allowed us to get that 3rd round pick). Oh, and OGun is still available LOL so there's another.

DE - A lot of options here, I'll just focus on guys who are STILL available: Carl Nassib, JPP, Takarist McKinley, Ryan Kerrigan, there's more but these guys are all at least as good, in in JPP/Kerrigans case significantly better, than what we got. Nassib/McKinly are both young also.

G/C - JC Tretter has been discussed a lot here, still available. FLowers, Price, Duvarney-Tardiff are other options. But I'd keep the Lucas signing, I liked that one a lot.

So, I just gave you guys 20 free agents - all at the positions in question, most of which are still available right now. Now you need to do a little work for yourself and find ANY combination that when swapped out for what we did would be better to swap out and add a 3rd round pick instead. I can come up with a bunch. Here's a couple so you can see how this works:

Scenario 1: Don't sign Pringle or Morrow. Sign Landry and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.
Scenario 2: Don't sign Muhammed or Morrow. Sign Nassib and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.

There are dozens of scenarios in here that work. There you go Pus, no go call out the other side with equal gusto. Because they hadn't provided any supporting evidence either, only conjecture.

You made the claim brother so don't turn it around on me. Besides I have Poles to back me up. He's an NFL GM.....you ain't. You're just one more message board poster who believes he'd make a better GM than they guy they just hired as GM. I believe several of Poles one year guys will be asked to return under new deals and I'm willing to wait for that outcome. So as it stand it would be very illogical for me to do your work for you......and you haven't done it.

The rest is your opinion on what Poles should have done. Clearly he disagrees with your opinion because he didn't do any of it. It seems to me that you have two choices. Either accept what's reality or buy your own NFL team and declare yourself GM much like Mikey McCaskey did once the McCaskey's inherited the Bears. Hope it works out better for you than it did for him....and us. If you plan on continuing to whine at least bring cheese next time OK? How's that for being logical?

[Bearfacts]

Oh, I almost forgot. I didn't post a thesis attempting to prove anything. I simply stated an opinion about believing several of Poles one year wonders would return in 2023. If you believe my opinion is wrong that's up to you. You can disagree with anyone's opinion. But you asked for data to support an opinion. Why would anyone need to do that other than to state we've done it many times before.

And......If you knew such data didn't exist why even ask?

You and Rich both have a habit of "baiting" for responses no one is really needs give you but at least you offer some of your own whereas Rich mostly prefers to lay in the weeds waiting to attack someone's logic or opinion. You both can post good stuff when you want to but you also act like a couple of ChiCitySports trolls at other times. I'm not into playing those games with either of you.

So......just carry on debating one another.

[RichH55]

There is no data regarding 1 year prove it deals so far as I can find. They have proposed a hypothetical that they can't prove with data, and I disagree with that hypothetical. Sorry Bearfacts et all, but you have no claim to being any more right than I do and I have no additional burden of proof than you do. I could have simply responded with a "prove your thesis" post like you did, but I didn't want to be a doucher about it so I simply made my argument instead. It's difficult to find data cause we're not just talking about 1 year deals here, specifically looking for "prove it" type deals where a player then "proves it" and tracking what happens the following year. If you can find some data, please share. But again - I have no additional burden of proof than you do.

Regarding specific players - I've answered it generally but since you want specifics, I'll save you the 15 seconds it would take you to find it on your own.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Our 5 free agents that cost us a 3rd round pick played these positions: DE, LB, DT, WR, G/C

Here is a list of players that we could have signed instead at these positions, after the comp formula would have granted us a 3rd round pick. They may not be perfect, they represent a "one year stop gap" type player that wouldn't be a dramatic drop off from what we got - in some cases they are actually better players.

WR - Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Cole Beasley (Landry went for less than Pringle, the other two are still available) . I left these out, but you could also include Julio Jones, TY Hilton, and OBJ - but I thought the first three were better fits. I'd STILL like to sign Fuller.

LB - Joe Shoebert, Nick Kwiatkowski, Anthony Hitchens (Kwit signed after the draft, the other two are still available), DRAFT (ILB's are cheap draft assets, I view Morrow as an unnecessary signing, I'd either nab one of the guys mentioned or have drafted someone)

DT - Narrower spot if looking at only 3T's, so I'd probably keep the Jones signing as 1 of the 3 to kep. But some others include Suh (who we're apparantly talking to now), Sheldon Richardson is still available also. But with this one, the better path if we didn't sign Jones would have been to draft a 3T (another option we could have taken that would have still allowed us to get that 3rd round pick). Oh, and OGun is still available LOL so there's another.

DE - A lot of options here, I'll just focus on guys who are STILL available: Carl Nassib, JPP, Takarist McKinley, Ryan Kerrigan, there's more but these guys are all at least as good, in in JPP/Kerrigans case significantly better, than what we got. Nassib/McKinly are both young also.

G/C - JC Tretter has been discussed a lot here, still available. FLowers, Price, Duvarney-Tardiff are other options. But I'd keep the Lucas signing, I liked that one a lot.

So, I just gave you guys 20 free agents - all at the positions in question, most of which are still available right now. Now you need to do a little work for yourself and find ANY combination that when swapped out for what we did would be better to swap out and add a 3rd round pick instead. I can come up with a bunch. Here's a couple so you can see how this works:

Scenario 1: Don't sign Pringle or Morrow. Sign Landry and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.
Scenario 2: Don't sign Muhammed or Morrow. Sign Nassib and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.

There are dozens of scenarios in here that work. There you go Pus, no go call out the other side with equal gusto. Because they hadn't provided any supporting evidence either, only conjecture.

You made the claim brother so don't turn it around on me. Besides I have Poles to back me up. He's an NFL GM.....you ain't. You're just one more message board poster who believes he'd make a better GM than they guy they just hired as GM. I believe several of Poles one year guys will be asked to return under new deals and I'm willing to wait for that outcome. So as it stand it would be very illogical for me to do your work for you......and you haven't done it.

The rest is your opinion on what Poles should have done. Clearly he disagrees with your opinion because he didn't do any of it. It seems to me that you have two choices. Either accept what's reality or buy your own NFL team and declare yourself GM much like Mikey McCaskey did once the McCaskey's inherited the Bears. Hope it works out better for you than it did for him....and us. If you plan on continuing to whine at least bring cheese next time OK? How's that for being logical?

A NFL GM drafted Jamarcus Russell - Number 1 overall in a Draft

They aren't infallible like the Pope.

31 GMs fail every year. The vast majority. Some much more than others.

"I believe several of Poles one year guys will be asked to return under new deals"

What does several mean to you in this discussion?

As to players who count against the compensatory formula that signed 1 year deals with the Bears. Literally 2 exist. Is 2 several?

(Speaking for Dplank here - and he certainly will correct me if I'm wrong - if its a 1 year deal but for less money than the compensatory formula cares about - Dplank (and me) have zero issue with that signing - Unless its Pig Simmons apparently)

[dplank]

Oh, I almost forgot. I didn't post a thesis attempting to prove anything. I simply stated an opinion about believing several of Poles one year wonders would return in 2023. If you believe my opinion is wrong that's up to you. You can disagree with anyone's opinion. But you asked for data to support an opinion. Why would anyone need to do that other than to state we've done it many times before.

And......If you knew such data didn't exist why even ask?

You and Rich both have a habit of "baiting" for responses no one is really needs give you but at least you offer some of your own whereas Rich mostly prefers to lay in the weeds waiting to attack someone's logic or opinion. You both can post good stuff when you want to but you also act like a couple of ChiCitySports trolls at other times. I'm not into playing those games with either of you.

So......just carry on debating one another.

This is just.....terrible. I tried being nice and resetting with you, but you are about as thin skinned as I've ever seen. If you don't like discussion and differing opinions, I would suggest returning to lurker status. I wasn't trolling you even a tiny bit, was literally just answering Yogi's question after being prodded to do so.

When I said I wished there was data on 1 year prove it deals, I wasn’t asking anyone to do anything - I didn’t expect the data to exist I was just wishing out loud it did so we had something empirical to look at. Wow man. I don’t troll - that’s not my brand AT ALL. I have plenty of flaws, trolling isn’t one of them. Lighten up man.

[Yogi da Bear]

Thanks DP. That's precisely what I was looking for from you. It gives us a baseline to compare to what Poles did going forward.

I do have some comments to make on your suggestions though:

First, you can't replace Morrow with any of those linebackers. They're simply not fast enough. Morrow runs a 4.5 while those guys are in the 4.7 range. There's no way in hell they could replace Morrow for what Eberflus wants to do with him. I would suggest coming up with another scenario NOT involving Morrow. I believe that Eberflus really wanted him. He wanted his LBs to excel in coverage.

Same thing goes for AQM. This is an Eberflus pick. This guy knows Eberflus' system. He's been with him for four years and he's on the uptick, having his best season last year. To me, he almost makes the most sense of all of our free agents. We have him for two years minimum, and what he can teach our young DEs like Gipson and Robinson in a synergistic kind of way. As to JPP and Kerrigan, I think they're done, and Nassib and McKinley are on the decline, while AQM is on the upswing. Last year was his best year yet with 48 tackles (more than double the year before) and 6 sacks (more than his previous four years combined). Kerrigan had only 3 tackles and 1 TFL last year in only 2 starts, as he barely saw the field with Philly. Same with JPP. He had only 31 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 12 starts last year. Nassib and McKinley combined the past two years only have as many sacks as AQM did last year. I think I'll take AQM.

As to the WRs, Julio I love, but I think he's done. So is Hilton. Never really liked Beasley or Landry all that much. Love Fuller but God, he breaks as easy as a glass when Ella hits her high notes.



And I really don't want the headache of OBJ, if he'd even play here.

As to DT, we had to get Jones when Ogun failed his physical. I'm really disappointed that Poles didn't find a way to draft Perrion Winfrey in the fourth, maybe by trading next year's third? But we still need two 3Ts I think. I'm hoping he signs Ogun this summer.

I like that Patrick signing as well, but I'm really disappointed that we didn't get Bates. I think that Poles shot himself in the foot there. He didn't need to lowball him like that.

Anyway, that's my take on your suggestions. I'm happy with the way things turned out and I guess we'll see going forward. Personally, I don't think a late round future third is as valuable as you might believe. Not if we can get guys who can help us win now. If all these guys contribute to us making the playoffs, will you change your tune?

Now, I can't find you statistics on short term, prove it deals resigning. But I can give you an example--Akiem Hicks. We initially signed him to a two year, 10 million dollar deal. We then resigned him to a 4 year 48 million dollar deal. And you know what, he was loyal as hell to the Bears. I would have loved to see him back, but damn, 10 mill for a year is a lot for him now. I think he would have come back though if we came even close to matching Tampa's offer.

That's my take. You can't intentionally hamstring your team for some late third round pick next year. It's stupid in my opinion. And I certainly wouldn't go for either of your scenarios as I think that Morrow is absolutely critical to what we're going to do on defense and BOTH AQM and Pringle are going to outperform any of the alternatives you posted.

But I guess we'll see. We've both put our cases out there, so it's clear.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

Pus,

I'll put that back to you (in another way) - What odds would you give the following scenarios:

1) I offer any team Muhammad and Morrow for a Late 3rd Next year (they take entire cap hits) and they accept

2). You play hardball with Morrow and he takes a contract with same money but no Active Game Bonuses (Potentially 500 K less )

3) Morrow plays a year for another team and then signs with Bears

4) Morrow plays good-great and walks in FA. (Bonus odds we get any comp pick for it, or Odds on it being a 3rd Rounder (Hint: It's basically 0% on being a 3rd)


And you could have had Myles Jack this offseason (For just one example) and he would not count against the compensatory formula

Rich, please don't take this the wrong way but I can't always follow what you're driving at. Are you wanting me to weigh out 4 different scenarios and assign odds to each of them, like so they add up to 100%, or something like that?

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Come on plank, two people have just asked you to elaborate and provide support for your opinions and you haven't done so.

Put your facts, figures, names and data out there to support your speculations.

We are waiting...

There is no data regarding 1 year prove it deals so far as I can find. They have proposed a hypothetical that they can't prove with data, and I disagree with that hypothetical. Sorry Bearfacts et all, but you have no claim to being any more right than I do and I have no additional burden of proof than you do. I could have simply responded with a "prove your thesis" post like you did, but I didn't want to be a doucher about it so I simply made my argument instead. It's difficult to find data cause we're not just talking about 1 year deals here, specifically looking for "prove it" type deals where a player then "proves it" and tracking what happens the following year. If you can find some data, please share. But again - I have no additional burden of proof than you do.

Regarding specific players - I've answered it generally but since you want specifics, I'll save you the 15 seconds it would take you to find it on your own.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Our 5 free agents that cost us a 3rd round pick played these positions: DE, LB, DT, WR, G/C

Here is a list of players that we could have signed instead at these positions, after the comp formula would have granted us a 3rd round pick. They may not be perfect, they represent a "one year stop gap" type player that wouldn't be a dramatic drop off from what we got - in some cases they are actually better players.

WR - Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Cole Beasley (Landry went for less than Pringle, the other two are still available) . I left these out, but you could also include Julio Jones, TY Hilton, and OBJ - but I thought the first three were better fits. I'd STILL like to sign Fuller.

LB - Joe Shoebert, Nick Kwiatkowski, Anthony Hitchens (Kwit signed after the draft, the other two are still available), DRAFT (ILB's are cheap draft assets, I view Morrow as an unnecessary signing, I'd either nab one of the guys mentioned or have drafted someone)

DT - Narrower spot if looking at only 3T's, so I'd probably keep the Jones signing as 1 of the 3 to kep. But some others include Suh (who we're apparantly talking to now), Sheldon Richardson is still available also. But with this one, the better path if we didn't sign Jones would have been to draft a 3T (another option we could have taken that would have still allowed us to get that 3rd round pick). Oh, and OGun is still available LOL so there's another.

DE - A lot of options here, I'll just focus on guys who are STILL available: Carl Nassib, JPP, Takarist McKinley, Ryan Kerrigan, there's more but these guys are all at least as good, in in JPP/Kerrigans case significantly better, than what we got. Nassib/McKinly are both young also.

G/C - JC Tretter has been discussed a lot here, still available. FLowers, Price, Duvarney-Tardiff are other options. But I'd keep the Lucas signing, I liked that one a lot.

So, I just gave you guys 20 free agents - all at the positions in question, most of which are still available right now. Now you need to do a little work for yourself and find ANY combination that when swapped out for what we did would be better to swap out and add a 3rd round pick instead. I can come up with a bunch. Here's a couple so you can see how this works:

Scenario 1: Don't sign Pringle or Morrow. Sign Landry and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.
Scenario 2: Don't sign Muhammed or Morrow. Sign Nassib and Shoebert or Hitchens instead and add a 3rd round pick.

There are dozens of scenarios in here that work. There you go Pus, no go call out the other side with equal gusto. Because they hadn't provided any supporting evidence either, only conjecture.

Many thanks dp, for your thorough explanatory post - it really does make it easier for slow people to understand when fast people take a little time to explain their positions on things. You say a lot and you also have a lot to say and sometimes it needs a little more explanation to go with it. I think you wrote a good response for the forum, whether I ultimately agree or not.

[dplank]

Thanks DP. That's precisely what I was looking for from you. It gives us a baseline to compare to what Poles did going forward.

I do have some comments to make on your suggestions though:

First, you can't replace Morrow with any of those linebackers. They're simply not fast enough. Morrow runs a 4.5 while those guys are in the 4.7 range. There's no way in hell they could replace Morrow for what Eberflus wants to do with him. I would suggest coming up with another scenario NOT involving Morrow. I believe that Eberflus really wanted him. He wanted his LBs to excel in coverage.

Same thing goes for AQM. This is an Eberflus pick. This guy knows Eberflus' system. He's been with him for four years and he's on the uptick, having his best season last year. To me, he almost makes the most sense of all of our free agents. We have him for two years minimum, and what he can teach our young DEs like Gipson and Robinson in a synergistic kind of way. As to JPP and Kerrigan, I think they're done, and Nassib and McKinley are on the decline, while AQM is on the upswing. Last year was his best year yet with 48 tackles (more than double the year before) and 6 sacks (more than his previous four years combined). Kerrigan had only 3 tackles and 1 TFL last year in only 2 starts, as he barely saw the field with Philly. Same with JPP. He had only 31 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 12 starts last year. Nassib and McKinley combined the past two years only have as many sacks as AQM did last year. I think I'll take AQM.

As to the WRs, Julio I love, but I think he's done. So is Hilton. Never really liked Beasley or Landry all that much. Love Fuller but God, he breaks as easy as a glass when Ella hits her high notes.



And I really don't want the headache of OBJ, if he'd even play here.

As to DT, we had to get Jones when Ogun failed his physical. I'm really disappointed that Poles didn't find a way to draft Perrion Winfrey in the fourth, maybe by trading next year's third? But we still need two 3Ts I think. I'm hoping he signs Ogun this summer.

I like that Patrick signing as well, but I'm really disappointed that we didn't get Bates. I think that Poles shot himself in the foot there. He didn't need to lowball him like that.

Anyway, that's my take on your suggestions. I'm happy with the way things turned out and I guess we'll see going forward. Personally, I don't think a late round future third is as valuable as you might believe. Not if we can get guys who can help us win now. If all these guys contribute to us making the playoffs, will you change your tune?

Now, I can't find you statistics on short term, prove it deals resigning. But I can give you an example--Akiem Hicks. We initially signed him to a two year, 10 million dollar deal. We then resigned him to a 4 year 48 million dollar deal. And you know what, he was loyal as hell to the Bears. I would have loved to see him back, but damn, 10 mill for a year is a lot for him now. I think he would have come back though if we came even close to matching Tampa's offer.

That's my take. You can't intentionally hamstring your team for some late third round pick next year. It's stupid in my opinion. And I certainly wouldn't go for either of your scenarios as I think that Morrow is absolutely critical to what we're going to do on defense and BOTH AQM and Pringle are going to outperform any of the alternatives you posted.

But I guess we'll see. We've both put our cases out there, so it's clear.

If these guys help us make a playoff run then yes, I’ll change my tune. Even if they don’t but play well and get extended I’d change my tune. But If 2 are gone after 1 or 2 years and we suck hard next year, then I’d hope you’d change yours.

[dplank]

Pus,

I'll put that back to you (in another way) - What odds would you give the following scenarios:

1) I offer any team Muhammad and Morrow for a Late 3rd Next year (they take entire cap hits) and they accept

2). You play hardball with Morrow and he takes a contract with same money but no Active Game Bonuses (Potentially 500 K less )

3) Morrow plays a year for another team and then signs with Bears

4) Morrow plays good-great and walks in FA. (Bonus odds we get any comp pick for it, or Odds on it being a 3rd Rounder (Hint: It's basically 0% on being a 3rd)


And you could have had Myles Jack this offseason (For just one example) and he would not count against the compensatory formula

Rich, please don't take this the wrong way but I can't always follow what you're driving at. Are you wanting me to weigh out 4 different scenarios and assign odds to each of them, like so they add up to 100%, or something like that?

I think he’s just showing you numerous examples of other issues / outcomes / ways Poles should have executed to ensure we got that pick Pus. I..e. Had we signed Jack instead of Morrow, Jack wouldn’t have counted against our comp calculation. Or if he had negotiated 500k off of Morrows deal, it would have changed our comp calculation, etc etc

Example 1 is just a reality check - showing that on the market, the players we signed absolutely do not have a 3rd round trade value.

[Bearfacts]

Oh, I almost forgot. I didn't post a thesis attempting to prove anything. I simply stated an opinion about believing several of Poles one year wonders would return in 2023. If you believe my opinion is wrong that's up to you. You can disagree with anyone's opinion. But you asked for data to support an opinion. Why would anyone need to do that other than to state we've done it many times before.

And......If you knew such data didn't exist why even ask?

You and Rich both have a habit of "baiting" for responses no one is really needs give you but at least you offer some of your own whereas Rich mostly prefers to lay in the weeds waiting to attack someone's logic or opinion. You both can post good stuff when you want to but you also act like a couple of ChiCitySports trolls at other times. I'm not into playing those games with either of you.

So......just carry on debating one another.

This is just.....terrible. I tried being nice and resetting with you, but you are about as thin skinned as I've ever seen. If you don't like discussion and differing opinions, I would suggest returning to lurker status. I wasn't trolling you even a tiny bit, was literally just answering Yogi's question after being prodded to do so.

When I said I wished there was data on 1 year prove it deals, I wasn’t asking anyone to do anything - I didn’t expect the data to exist I was just wishing out loud it did so we had something empirical to look at. Wow man. I don’t troll - that’s not my brand AT ALL. I have plenty of flaws, trolling isn’t one of them. Lighten up man.

You couldn't be more wrong if it was actually intentional on your part. I'm just gonna let all of this pass. It's not worth my time to debate it.

[Bearfacts]

And now I'll put in my two cents based on your response.

It's pretty obvious Poles was far more interested in signing players he believed best fit our needs and with whom he also believed we could field a competitive team in 2022. Whether or not that impacted his ability to be rewarded with comp picks in 2023 wasn't part of the equation for him. He needed players he liked now.

We can keep debating what he should have done all season long but it won't alter what has been done. I've been accused of being illogical which actually amuses me far more than anything. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But tell me, how logical is it to keep debating what didn't happen as if somehow that would change everything?

It reminds me of all of the lunatics who keep running around with their insanity about how TFG could become POTUS again now if only blah, blah, blah and blah. I don't operate on fantasy. The roster we have is the roster we have now and it will likely change before September once players are cut or released by other teams.

Poles hasn't been on the job for even 6 months and we haven't even had training camp yet let alone played a single game. If it proves to be true that he's made numerous mistakes building his roster then I'll consider adding my own critique of his work but for now I'd prefer to just sit back and see what happens once the games are played.

And last the issue I picked on was asking for data about how many players on one year deals were ever extended or re-signed by their teams. You seemed serious about that point Plank so I proposed that you should come back with that data because you said you believed the rest of us were over rating it. What would you have said if I'd posted that?

And now I'm done with all of this crap. I'll go one contributing as I choose to and leave this behind. It's not worth debating.

[Heinz D.]

It's pretty obvious Poles was far more interested in signing players he believed best fit our needs and with whom he also believed we could field a competitive team in 2022. Whether or not that impacted his ability to be rewarded with comp picks in 2023 wasn't part of the equation for him. He needed players he liked now.

[dplank]

It's pretty obvious Poles was far more interested in signing players he believed best fit our needs and with whom he also believed we could field a competitive team in 2022. Whether or not that impacted his ability to be rewarded with comp picks in 2023 wasn't part of the equation for him. He needed players he liked now.

Ok. And if we suck in 2022, then we can deem his strategy a mistake. We will see how it works out.

[Heinz D.]

Ok. And if we suck in 2022, then we can deem his strategy a mistake. We will see how it works out.

I sincerely doubt the Bears will suck, but either way, I don't think the strategy was a mistake. IMO, you worry about comp picks when you have a fairly settled team. Pace began the rebuild last season--Poles is continuing it with the added pressure of installing a new offense and going from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Planning around receiving comp picks is down the road a ways, I think.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Ok. And if we suck in 2022, then we can deem his strategy a mistake. We will see how it works out.

I sincerely doubt the Bears will suck, but either way, I don't think the strategy was a mistake. IMO, you worry about comp picks when you have a fairly settled team. Pace began the rebuild last season--Poles is continuing it with the added pressure of installing a new offense and going from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Planning around receiving comp picks is down the road a ways, I think.

This is a view that I've not really thought about much until now. If you consider that the "rebuild year" was began by Pace in what was to become his final season, then it adds to a sensible narrative for where the team was when Poles took over and where he has tried to go thus far...

I am beginning to think of this "rebuild" as a multi-detailed narrative that started with the 2021 off-season. I think Pace left some good things behind that Poles found to be worthy of nurturing. It's a dam entertaining human interest story that should keep us all in good spirits this fall, I am hoping.

Thanks for pointing out a sensible concept, Heinz!

[dplank]

Ok. And if we suck in 2022, then we can deem his strategy a mistake. We will see how it works out.

I sincerely doubt the Bears will suck, but either way, I don't think the strategy was a mistake. IMO, you worry about comp picks when you have a fairly settled team. Pace began the rebuild last season--Poles is continuing it with the added pressure of installing a new offense and going from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Planning around receiving comp picks is down the road a ways, I think.

Fair - I generally think of comp picks the same way. But I don’t see any issue being opportunistic either, and losing a premium guy like ARob presented a rare opportunity to add a 3rd round pick. Considering how minor a change to Poles actual moves that it would have taken to get that pick - very minor tweaks - I see it as a missed opportunity.

[Yogi da Bear]

If these guys help us make a playoff run then yes, I’ll change my tune. Even if they don’t but play well and get extended I’d change my tune. But If 2 are gone after 1 or 2 years and we suck hard next year, then I’d hope you’d change yours.

Yeah, I probably would, but you know how hard headed I can be. I can guarantee though, if we suck "hard," I'm not going to be happy, and then it becomes a matter of where to place the blame--the GM or the Coach. This is an age old question. In this case though, I think all of these signings, and the draft picks as well, were on the behest of the coaching staff.

On defense, I think that Eberflus really wanted a LB accomplished in Pass Defense. Myself, I really like Jack. I don't like PFF, but they did have him graded at 37.7, the lowest of his career. I don't know about that, but it does appear that Morrow, even coming off of injury, is far better at Pass Defense than Jack is. Last year, Jack allowed a 78.3% completion percentage, 9.3 yards per completion, 7.3 yards a target, and a 108.3 rating against while not getting a single PD. Conversely, the last Morrow played in 2020, he allowed only 67.7% completion percentage, 6.6 yards a completion, only 4.5 yards per attempt, an 86.1 rating, and an impressive 9 PDs to go with a pick. This is going to be an interesting experiment to say the least. I know I was sick of Danny T and Kwit being taken advantage of in pass defense. But what's our rush defense going to be like?

It's clear that Eberflus wanted to bring in his guy AQM and a 3T. My bet is that he really pushed for the signing of Ogun, but that Poles put his foot down on the failed physical and brought in Jones as a consolation prize. I'm still really disappointed we didn't get Winfrey in the fourth. He seemed like such a natural fit. But did you notice Eberflus' gap toothed gleaming on our first two picks. You know he was pushing hard for those.

On offense, you know that Getsy pushed for his Green Bay center and ESB. Given the similarities between Pringle and Velus Jones, my bet is he pushed for those too. And Poles also went out to find offensive linemen with the athleticism Getsy needs in his blocking schemes.

So, in the end, who do you blame? And is a future pick between a third and fourth rounder enough compensation to justify the strife between a GM and his coach? But if we suck "hard," I'm going to be coming down on Poles, particularly if Mack balls out. The buck stops with him. He's who hired the coach. And even if we are successful, I'll still come down on Poles if something happens to Fields because our line is crap. I'll say that DP was right, "we should have spent more on a quality OL." But I probably won't be upset because of a loss of a future compensatory third rounder. I believe that's a very minor factor in this offseason. It will be because of his whole approach to the entire offseason.

Does that make sense?

[dplank]

Yep makes sense to me. I’ve said repeatedly that I see this as one potential mistake amongst many of other good moves. I’m excited to see how this all works out, I won’t be shocked if we blow and I won’t be shocked if we are in the hunt for a playoff spot.

[Heinz D.]

Fair - I generally think of comp picks the same way. But I don’t see any issue being opportunistic either, and losing a premium guy like ARob presented a rare opportunity to add a 3rd round pick. Considering how minor a change to Poles actual moves that it would have taken to get that pick - very minor tweaks - I see it as a missed opportunity.

The way I view it is that Poles thought he had very little "wiggle room", so to speak.

I totally agree with assessment.

Yep makes sense to me. I’ve said repeatedly that I see this as one potential mistake amongst many of other good moves. I’m excited to see how this all works out, I won’t be shocked if we blow and I won’t be shocked if we are in the hunt for a playoff spot.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears are a fringe playoff contender, either.

Think about where the football media (well, most of them, anyway) have the Bears slotted now. Boy, it may just be a doozy of a season--talking heads flipping out and whatnot...