What The Hell Happened?

[RichH55]

I think we'd have ended up with 6-7 wins had we not traded Quinn and Roquan away. There was a clear, blatant falling off a cliff after those moves that took our kinda mediocre defense and turned it into Mel Tucker level stuff.

This talent evaluation was, and is, exactly what we all thought of this roster (and all the national media also) - ass. Bottom 3 talent at WR and OL. A new staff implementing new scheme's on both sides of the ball. IMO it makes Fields progression all the more impressive given those circumstances. He struggled early on, which is to be expected given all the above, but once the offense started to gel a bit into the new scheme, his pure talent started to win the day and he absolutely exploded on the scene.

Must we overrate Roquon in every thread?

All that praise is going right to his hips

[wab]

Quinn hasn't done squat and there has been no statistical difference between Smith in this defense and Sanborn.

The main reasons that the Bears have only won 3 games are (in no particular order after #1):
1 - Fields slow start
2 - Injuries and inconsistency on the OL
3 - Lack of pass rush
4 - Kmet's slow start
5 - Injuries at RB
6 - Injuries in the secondary

[RichH55]

I'd add in some Flukeness

Special teams has cost us what ? 3 Games?

I'd wager we don't lose a game because of a missed Extra Point or Blocked Punt in the next two seasons

[wab]

I'd add in some Flukeness

Special teams has cost us what ? 3 Games?

I'd wager we don't lose a game because of a missed Extra Point or Blocked Punt in the next two seasons

Good call out.

The Bears have lost 5 close games by one score or less (an average of a field goal). It isn't impossible to think that the Bears could be easily sitting here with 8 wins and we'd be talking about what an underrated up and coming roster they have...

[dplank]

This talent evaluation was, and is, exactly what we all thought of this roster (and all the national media also) - ass. Bottom 3 talent at WR and OL.

Now wait a minute

This off/preseason there were lots of fierce arguments had about:

• The national media being biased against the Bears or just trolling Bear Nation with "ridiculously low" expectations (which are actually turning out to be too high)
• "You can't say this is a bad WR group. You don't know that."
• "The OL must be good enough. Because if it weren't good enough, Poles would have done more about it. But he didn't, so therefore what they have must be fine."

ok....maybe not all of us...but most of us

[Moriarty]

I'd add in some Flukeness

Special teams has cost us what ? 3 Games?

I'd wager we don't lose a game because of a missed Extra Point or Blocked Punt in the next two seasons

Good call out.

The Bears have lost 5 close games by one score or less (an average of a field goal). It isn't impossible to think that the Bears could be easily sitting here with 8 wins and we'd be talking about what an underrated up and coming roster they have...

Yes, I think bad breaks and crappy officiating figure in.
But you can't just look at close losses or assume every close game ought to go your way.

They've won 1 close one and lost 5 close ones. If they'd have gone 3-3 in close games instead of 1-5, they'd be 2 games ahead of where they are.

[wab]

I mean, two of those losses were a direct result of special teams mistakes. The other three were mistakes/poor officiating on game winning drives.

While you can't assume they would have all been wins, you can't really assume they wouldn't have been either.

[Moriarty]

Now wait a minute

This off/preseason there were lots of fierce arguments had about:

• The national media being biased against the Bears or just trolling Bear Nation with "ridiculously low" expectations (which are actually turning out to be too high)
• "You can't say this is a bad WR group. You don't know that."
• "The OL must be good enough. Because if it weren't good enough, Poles would have done more about it. But he didn't, so therefore what they have must be fine."

ok....maybe not all of us...but most of us

I think you're still being generous.
My recollection is that the OL complaining (from May to camp) was just you and me, the WR argument was maybe 50/50 at most, and the media bias was just me by myself (on the "no it isn't" side).

When season end comes, I'll dig up some old threads...

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

The defense has definitely fallen apart since Quinn left. It had already happened when Roquan left.
Was Quinn the defense leader on the field? Probably and I think his presence and leadership is missed. Was he putting up big numbers? No he wasn’t, but Dom Rob and Gipson were doing better. Maybe he was taking the attention away from the others?

So 6-7 wins. What does that give us? Probably not a playoff place. It does make our draft pick mid first round, not a high pick. We also gained Claypool and more picks and more draft space by letting them go.

So it made this season garbage instead of mediocre, but I can see there is a bigger plan.

[BigDaddy]

From my point of view a lot happened.
1. we not only traded away Quinn and Smith but we also lost Mack and Hicks.
2. Bullshit non calls and bad calls by officials
3. Poor pass protection and a QB who was not seeing the field ( Yeah, Getsy found a way to make him more productive but he also got him hurt. Fields has to accept accountability for his errant passes, a number that could have yielded TDs. He has to trust his WRs, he has some work to do but if Getsy provides a balance of moving him outside the pocket and keeping him in the pocket with proper protection, we will see an improvement)
4. Injuries, as of ate, they are alarming....
5. Young team that does not know how to win
6. Head Coach who isn't spending enough time on defense..I don't care about his HITS philosophy. He either needs to help his DC figure out a way to get more pressure on QB or he needs to firs the guy. Not sure Williams even knows how to blitz..
7. Lack of talent in key areas... Give us a top flight DT, DT2 and DE and you will hopefully see a marked improvement from this team, 2 O linemen that can pass block and we are going to have a formidable offense.

It was mentioned earlier that if we fix our lines, we'll be fine. We have draft picks and cash to spend. I would like to trust that Poles knows what he is doing.

[TheWorldBreaker]

I think if you are expecting 8 new starters across both lines, you are going to be disappointed.

I don’t expect 8 new starters it just wouldn’t shock me if that was the case.

If they end up with the #2 pick and trade back they can acquire a lot of talent in the draft and combine that with 130 million or so in cap space you could dramatically overhaul the roster pretty quickly, including both lines.

There’s guaranteed to be 3 new starters on the defensive line: Two DE and a true 3T, and center and RT are glaring holes. So a minimum of 5.

Poles could want to get rid of Whitehair considering his contract and down tick in play (especially if Carter has shown progress a year in the system), and if they bring in competition for Braxton Jones (instead of just assuming he’ll get strong enough to handle bull rushes in pass protection next year) he could lose.

[wab]

I think if you are expecting 8 new starters across both lines, you are going to be disappointed.

I don’t expect 8 new starters it just wouldn’t shock me if that was the case.

If they end up with the #2 pick and trade back they can acquire a lot of talent in the draft and combine that with 130 million or so in cap space you could dramatically overhaul the roster pretty quickly, including both lines.

There’s guaranteed to be 3 new starters on the defensive line: Two DE and a true 3T, and center and RT are glaring holes. So a minimum of 5.

Poles could want to get rid of Whitehair considering his contract and down tick in play (especially if Carter has shown progress a year in the system), and if they bring in competition for Braxton Jones (instead of just assuming he’ll get strong enough to handle bull rushes in pass protection next year) he could lose.

We are just going to have to agree to disagree I guess. I see a new starting RT (or RG if they indeed move Jenkins back out). Patrick very likely starts the season at center next year, although I fully expect the Bears to draft one.

I can't see Whitehair going anywhere. He's affordable and playing well. If Braxton Jones wasn't going to be given every opportunity to be the future at LT, then I would imagine you would have seen more of Leatherwood and/or Reiff there. I suppose it's possible they could evaluate him after the season and determine they need an upgrade, but I'm not counting on it.

I see at least one, possibly two new starters on the defensive line at DT and DE. Possibly a new weakside LB.

I'm guessing a lot of the 130 million is earmarked for extensions. Jaylon, Claypool, Mooney, Kmet...all going to need new money. I don't think there is going to be a massive spending spree in FA, and it's not a great looking FA group anyway.

[artbest01]

IMO, next season, we're likely to see 2 new starts on the offensive line - 3 if they decide they don't think Jones has the upside he's presumed to have (seems unlikely imo). We'll see significant change in WR room - by necessity more so than a slew of aggressive upgrades. They will likely have 2 new starts on the d-line - a DT and DE - ideally, there will be 3 new starters. I expect them to have a new starting WLB next year (a big role in Eberflus' defense - and the Bears do not have a in his prime Shaq Leonard caliber player on their roster today).

In two years, the d-line may have 4 starters that aren't on the roster day and the oline may (also) have 4 new starters.

[otis]

would poles save some cap space for fields instead of spending all 130 mil? he'll have to pick up the 5th year option after this next year. assuming he does then he'll probably getting an extension. do we manage the cap to have some money available for a fields ext? roll it forward? one of the things i hate is gm's that spend it to the hilt, like pace, and then we're stuck with crap and no cap. i think eddie would be gone and probably whitehair next year. it seems poles is okay cutting the big number guys.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Patrick very likely starts the season at center next year, although I fully expect the Bears to draft one.

Let's not forget they did draft a center this year, albeit in the 6th round with the 207th pick. When they were quick to put Kramer on IR before the season started there was some speculation that it was to redshirt him to avoid the risk of him getting taken from the practice squad. I have no idea whether he's any good, but it's possible they look to him to compete next season and then replace Patrick in 2024 when his contract expires.

Mustipher's an RFA so it's possible they bring him back too as cheap competition. It would be surprising if he generates much interest given his play, but PFF rank him the 16th best center in the league so who knows? (And yes I do consider PFF grades to be worthless!)

[RichH55]

Good call out.

The Bears have lost 5 close games by one score or less (an average of a field goal). It isn't impossible to think that the Bears could be easily sitting here with 8 wins and we'd be talking about what an underrated up and coming roster they have...

Yes, I think bad breaks and crappy officiating figure in.
But you can't just look at close losses or assume every close game ought to go your way.

They've won 1 close one and lost 5 close ones. If they'd have gone 3-3 in close games instead of 1-5, they'd be 2 games ahead of where they are.

Close games win/losses tend NOT to be sticky year to year - Akin to fumble recoveries in that regard

A bit of a "Luck" stat rather than skill

[docc]

I never thought the goal this year was to have a competitive team..not a real tank job but fielding so many cast off one year waste..scrubs and kids that might have promise with what we had for draft position last year. Add in some injuries..lack of depth for the one year cast off contract place holders and the season was unexpectedly revived by Fields legs and occasional brilliant pass.

We are now in the first year of a rebuild coming next year....choose wisely add FAs that can play..maybe keep some of this year detritus as backups or at best PS filler..

Build inside out.. Get Fields more talent and some patience on when to break out those legs..and time to actually become proficient in a pocket...

We need TALENT..we have $$$..we have #2 or #3 or such as a high pick..or trade to get a shit ton of college talent..

Going 6-11 or even 5-12 would have set us back in our goals...

Soft tank..maybe..but little long term commitments to the uglies and we can be a fresh look Bears..

Bring It On..2023..and a beginning..

[Boris13c]

I never thought the goal this year was to have a competitive team..not a real tank job but fielding so many cast off one year waste..scrubs and kids that might have promise with what we had for draft position last year. Add in some injuries..lack of depth for the one year cast off contract place holders and the season was unexpectedly revived by Fields legs and occasional brilliant pass.

We are now in the first year of a rebuild coming next year....choose wisely add FAs that can play..maybe keep some of this year detritus as backups or at best PS filler..

Build inside out.. Get Fields more talent and some patience on when to break out those legs..and time to actually become proficient in a pocket...

We need TALENT..we have $$$..we have #2 or #3 or such as a high pick..or trade to get a shit ton of college talent..

Going 6-11 or even 5-12 would have set us back in our goals...

Soft tank..maybe..but little long term commitments to the uglies and we can be a fresh look Bears..

Bring It On..2023

but aren't you a little tired of seemingly saying wait until next year, over and over, year after year?

many previous years it was "if only we had a QB" ... well, now we have a QB and everything else has gone to shit ... can't win for losing is the saying, yes?

[docc]

It did not go to shit..it was scrubs..one year castoffs..kids..low draft picks.. It was not waiting..it was obvious.. Been a fan for 65 years.. Year after year of plugging holes on very flawed teams..had to be burned down..

And here we are..in the smoldering pile that was obvious from the beginning of the year..

[dplank]

It did not go to shit..it was scrubs..one year castoffs..kids..low draft picks.. It was not waiting..it was obvious.. Been a fan for 65 years.. Year after year of plugging holes on very flawed teams..had to be burned down..

And here we are..in the smoldering pile that was obvious from the beginning of the year..

Agree 100%. There was no doubt the moment we traded Mack that this was a throwaway / development year. If somehow that didn't resonate, it became even more obvious when we were actually a competitive team unexpectedly and we went ahead and traded both Quinn and Roquan, after which our defense cratered and we lost every game. I'm actually a proponent of the tank methodology, not necessarily tanking for one particular player, but doing a full on gut job and burning it all down in one season and hitting the reset button. A new coaching staff combined with an old injury prone roster made this a no brainer move. As painful as it's been sometimes, we got exactly what we wanted out of this season - we cleared cap space for 2023 and beyond, got really good experience for our young guys in the secondary (Gordon, Brisker), great experience for two key young OL (Jones, Jenkins), clarity on another that he's not good (Borom), a year of development of our new offense (which has at times shown incredible promise with the rush attack, which I believe is absolutely crucial to sustained offensive success) and the ultimate prize - Justin Fucking Fields has arrived in the NFL with major statement games, his improvement has been dramatic IN SPITE OF ridiculous circumstances surrounding him. He has CLEARLY established himself as the leader of not only this offense, but this entire team. We finally have a legit franchise QB who should be the face of this franchise for the next decade.

This season is a big win in my book, and I hope we keep losing as this offseason is crucial to the future of this franchise. Poles has completely won me over, I can't wait for this offseason.

[Teddy KGB]

This talent evaluation was, and is, exactly what we all thought of this roster (and all the national media also) - ass. Bottom 3 talent at WR and OL.

Now wait a minute

This off/preseason there were lots of fierce arguments had about:

• The national media being biased against the Bears or just trolling Bear Nation with "ridiculously low" expectations (which are actually turning out to be too high)
• "You can't say this is a bad WR group. You don't know that."
• "The OL must be good enough. Because if it weren't good enough, Poles would have done more about it. But he didn't, so therefore what they have must be fine."

My rebuttal is that the fans who were saying that were delusional and/or stupid.

[TheWorldBreaker]

I don’t expect 8 new starters it just wouldn’t shock me if that was the case.

If they end up with the #2 pick and trade back they can acquire a lot of talent in the draft and combine that with 130 million or so in cap space you could dramatically overhaul the roster pretty quickly, including both lines.

There’s guaranteed to be 3 new starters on the defensive line: Two DE and a true 3T, and center and RT are glaring holes. So a minimum of 5.

Poles could want to get rid of Whitehair considering his contract and down tick in play (especially if Carter has shown progress a year in the system), and if they bring in competition for Braxton Jones (instead of just assuming he’ll get strong enough to handle bull rushes in pass protection next year) he could lose.

We are just going to have to agree to disagree I guess. I see a new starting RT (or RG if they indeed move Jenkins back out). Patrick very likely starts the season at center next year, although I fully expect the Bears to draft one.

I can't see Whitehair going anywhere. He's affordable and playing well. If Braxton Jones wasn't going to be given every opportunity to be the future at LT, then I would imagine you would have seen more of Leatherwood and/or Reiff there. I suppose it's possible they could evaluate him after the season and determine they need an upgrade, but I'm not counting on it.

I see at least one, possibly two new starters on the defensive line at DT and DE. Possibly a new weakside LB.

I'm guessing a lot of the 130 million is earmarked for extensions. Jaylon, Claypool, Mooney, Kmet...all going to need new money. I don't think there is going to be a massive spending spree in FA, and it's not a great looking FA group anyway.

I don’t think any of those players need to be signed this year, and I don’t think Poles will reset the market chasing holes. But both lines are atrocious and in addition to the cap space they could end up with a lot of draft picks if they stay this high and trade back.

Anyway, I came across some interesting stats that might change your mind some:



In addition to that rate of pressure the Bears only had 8 true pass sets (meaning no play action or screens) against the Jets and Siemian was pressured on 5 of those. That’s comically bad.

People attributed some of the pass blocking woes to Fields holding the ball too long but it turns out they just can’t pass protect for anyone.

To me, that seems like something that needs to be dealt with with a sense of urgency when you have a talented young Quarterback you’re trying to develop.

As far as Patrick goes, in addition to him being injured most of the season and not being very good when he played, I think it’s worth pointing out he was pretty clearly a Getsy guy. So I don’t think Poles has any special affinity or connection with him that would preclude him from actively seeking a replacement.

[RichH55]

Jets do have an absolutely fantastic Front 4 for what its worth - ignoring the Sample Size issues (or Oblique injury etc - All the stuff we'd give crazy Benefit of the Doubt on to others) (You can add those in one you get to the Sack % rate stuff)

Also - QB hits/Sacks are what you should be using (No Offense)

But if you recall Shea - They ALWAYS had good pressure numbers for him. He very rarely got home or even got a hand on the QB. Pressure is a bit of a nebulous term

Semien Sack Percentage v Jets: 7.1 %

Fields as Rookie: 11.8%
Fields this year: 14.9% (Holy Crap BTW)

So - again sample size - yadda yadda

The Sack Rate falls by MORE than 50% in Semien's 1 Game.

[wulfy]

The Sack Rate falls by MORE than 50% in Semien's 1 Game.

With a offensive line beset by injuries.

[dplank]

The Sack Rate falls by MORE than 50% in Semien's 1 Game.

With a offensive line beset by injuries.

We literally played our #1 OL unit for the first time in a long time in that game, so this isn't true. Jones/WHitehair/Mustipher/Jenkins/Borom. Reiff subbed out, but that position is clearly unsettled for who is the actual starter as it's been Borom's job all year prior to his injury.

Also, if we're going to extrapolate statistics from 1 friggin game, how about extrapolating what actually matters? POINTS went from a 30PPG average down to 10PPG, that's a MORE than 65% drop in Siemiens 1 game. LOL, pick your poison and cherry pick stats, or you know, just use your freaking eyeballs and see plainly that we can't pass protect for shit. It's goddamn obvious to even a casual observer.

[The Marshall Plan]

With a offensive line beset by injuries.

We literally played our #1 OL unit for the first time in a long time in that game, so this isn't true. Jones/WHitehair/Mustipher/Jenkins/Borom. Reiff subbed out, but that position is clearly unsettled for who is the actual starter as it's been Borom's job all year prior to his injury.

Also, if we're going to extrapolate statistics from 1 friggin game, how about extrapolating what actually matters? POINTS went from a 30PPG average down to 10PPG, that's a MORE than 65% drop in Siemiens 1 game. LOL, pick your poison and cherry pick stats, or you know, just use your freaking eyeballs and see plainly that we can't pass protect for shit. It's goddamn obvious to even a casual observer.

This is an interesting point.

At what point can we say something definitive about something?

@wab was basically saying Sanborn = Roquan after like three games.

[dplank]

lol I have no idea, I just know a lot of this is just posturing to defend a narrative that no one fucking cares about anymore. If anyone is still clinging to the notion that Justin Fields isn't our franchise QB, I just don't have any respect for their football IQ. He has broken into the NFL spotlight like no QB we've ever had here in Chicago - he broke ALL TIME FUCKING RECORDS and made our offense a damn juggernaut, and he's done it surrounded by utter dogshit and in just his 2nd year in the NFL and 1st year in this offense. That's all, there is no other take that changes that top line perspective, just nibbling around the edges. Does he still need to improve parts of his game - OF FUCKING COURSE HE DOES - this would be true of ANY Y2 NFL QB. But if anyone doesn't think he's our guy after what he's done this year....well.....i'm not gonna throw insults around but I find it absolutely ridiculous. He was the talk of the NFL for a whole friggin month.

[wab]

We literally played our #1 OL unit for the first time in a long time in that game, so this isn't true. Jones/WHitehair/Mustipher/Jenkins/Borom. Reiff subbed out, but that position is clearly unsettled for who is the actual starter as it's been Borom's job all year prior to his injury.

Also, if we're going to extrapolate statistics from 1 friggin game, how about extrapolating what actually matters? POINTS went from a 30PPG average down to 10PPG, that's a MORE than 65% drop in Siemiens 1 game. LOL, pick your poison and cherry pick stats, or you know, just use your freaking eyeballs and see plainly that we can't pass protect for shit. It's goddamn obvious to even a casual observer.

This is an interesting point.

At what point can we say something definitive about something?

@wab was basically saying Sanborn = Roquan after like three games.

I'll take the bait I guess even though you know that's not what I said. I said there was no statistical dropoff between the two players.

YMMV I guess. You also never answered my question...which I suppose I should have expected.

[dplank]

whoa whoa, don't step on my Fields argument with your Sanborn argument....lol

I will say this on the Roquan/Sanborn thing. Because I'm a Bears fan, I no longer give a rats ass about Roquan and hope he fails and some other team pays him a buttload of money. I have no loyalty when they leave the team, I'm loyal to my team and the guys on it. So I hope Sanborn becomes the next Chris Spielman! He's off to a great start and I'm rooting for him, it would be a HUGE win for the organization if he's a hidden gem.

Me being right or wrong about Roquan is meaningless to me. The Bears building a championship team is all that matters.

[TheWorldBreaker]

Jets do have an absolutely fantastic Front 4 for what its worth - ignoring the Sample Size issues (or Oblique injury etc - All the stuff we'd give crazy Benefit of the Doubt on to others) (You can add those in one you get to the Sack % rate stuff)

Also - QB hits/Sacks are what you should be using (No Offense)

But if you recall Shea - They ALWAYS had good pressure numbers for him. He very rarely got home or even got a hand on the QB. Pressure is a bit of a nebulous term

Semien Sack Percentage v Jets: 7.1 %

Fields as Rookie: 11.8%
Fields this year: 14.9% (Holy Crap BTW)

So - again sample size - yadda yadda

The Sack Rate falls by MORE than 50% in Semien's 1 Game.

Who are they?

And the purpose in bringing these stats up wasn’t to compare QBs. Indeed, one of the key points was that Siemian got the ball out considerably faster and used his check downs but was still facing constant pressure and got sacked twice.

The point in bringing up those stats was to illustrate how poor the offensive line is at pass protection.

I’m also not sure the math is correct on your sack percentages is correct if the pass attempt number on ESPN is correct. But I also don’t really care because even Fields understands he needs to get the ball out quicker.

But the offensive line also needs to not be significantly better in pass protection which probably entails getting better players.