Top draft prospects - Defensive Tackle

College football and the NFL Draft

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HisRoyalSweetness
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I don't follow College Football, but having noticed Ditka’s dictaphone had started a thread for Center prospects I thought perhaps people would like to have threads to discuss other positions of need.

Here's a lengthy breakdown of the top defensive tackles from Bearlissimo:

"Jalen Carter, Bryan Breese, Gervon Dexter, Calijah Kancey & a surprise name to watch at the Senior Bowl"

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I am of the mind that if we're going DT in the draft that we either stand pat and take Carter at #2 or #3 overall or get really lucky and do a small trade down and hope he falls to #4 or something. He won't get past that point.

Right now if I had to keep the pick then Carter is the guy over Anderson.
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Thanks HRS :thumbsup:

I like Dexter he looks good.
Some other names include Siaki Ika, Tyler Davis and obviously Mazi Smith
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Calijah Kancey is getting buzz as a 3rd or 4th round pick. Not Aaron Donald but a non-stop motor and might be worth a look if the Bears sign a FA DT and want to draft a guy for down the road.
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Not exactly on point with draft prospects at DT. These are the contracts of the top DTs in the league if the Bears go the FA route:

Aaron Donald: $31.7M
DeForest Buckner: $21M
Chris Jones: $20M
Jonathan Allen: $18M
Vita Vea: $17.8M
Kenny Clark: $17.5M

Donald kind of blows the curve out of the water but a tag for DTs in '23, based on the salaries of the 5 highest DT salaries, would be $21.7M. Washington might tag Daron Payne. Javon Hargrave of the Eagles wll be a FA, I'd expect that he would want $20M+ for a salary. More likely, he'd want a bit more than Buckner (no one's getting Donald money).
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wab
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Looking at Flus' defensive lines over the course of the last few years, he's always had a super tall and lean guy at DT.

DeForrest Buckner
Margus Hunt
Denico Autry
Robert Windsor (hurt and retired before playing)
Jihad Ward

He's got Armon Watts in that role right now, and he's doing "ok".

There isn't really that guy in the draft. Gervon Dexter is probably the closest. I don't think that guy is out there in FA either. Dean Lowrey maybe? Buckner if he's released due to cap issues...
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wab wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 12:23 pm Looking at Flus' defensive lines over the course of the last few years, he's always had a super tall and lean guy at DT.

DeForrest Buckner
Margus Hunt
Denico Autry
Robert Windsor (hurt and retired before playing)
Jihad Ward

He's got Armon Watts in that role right now, and he's doing "ok".

There isn't really that guy in the draft. Gervon Dexter is probably the closest. I don't think that guy is out there in FA either. Dean Lowrey maybe? Buckner if he's released due to cap issues...
Gervon Dexter is probably the best draft fit for that physical build, yeah. At least of the known guys.
Jaquelin Roy kind of fits the frame, but style-wise he's a plugging 1-tech instead of a penetrating 3-tech. And Bryan Bresee might look the part but has never had the productivity.
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How about a day 3 pick for Colby Wooden from Auburn.

He looks like an underrated player.

Tall (6’5”) and lean (284) very athletic and explosive.







I think Byron Young Tennessee (maybe late day 2 or early day 3) is a good option too but not as tall as the others:





Also Malik Vann Cincinnati is a day 3 pick

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The more I read, the more I think the Bears have to go with Jalen Carter unless they sign a real 3T in free agency. They can sign a good DT to play alongside him, stop the run and pressure the QB, there are a few in FA. They shouldn't have premium demands but are good solid players. They can bring back Watts as a camp body if he doesn't sign elsewhere, see if he can make the team for depth.
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Grizzled wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:54 am The more I read, the more I think the Bears have to go with Jalen Carter unless they sign a real 3T in free agency. They can sign a good DT to play alongside him, stop the run and pressure the QB, there are a few in FA. They shouldn't have premium demands but are good solid players. They can bring back Watts as a camp body if he doesn't sign elsewhere, see if he can make the team for depth.
Or they could trade pre-draft e.g. DeForest Buckner?
I’d be great if the Colts could get pick 3, trade pick 3, DB and a second for pick 1.
Then pick up Will Anderson with pick 3 :D
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I think some of y’all are going to be seriously disappointed when your “draft haul” scenarios don’t pan out.
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wab wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:46 am I think some of y’all are going to be seriously disappointed when your “draft haul” scenarios don’t pan out.
Not really, speculation is fun whereas reality is usually mundane.
I expect mundane and hope to see some fun :thumbsup:
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wab wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:46 am I think some of y’all are going to be seriously disappointed when your “draft haul” scenarios don’t pan out.
Call your shrink, your medicine cabinet needs a refill.
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wab wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:46 am I think some of y’all are going to be seriously disappointed when your “draft haul” scenarios don’t pan out.
I don't see any team giving up a San Fran haul (3 first rounders to move from 12 to 3) anymore, I think teams are avoiding those deals now. Perhaps a 1st rounder next year for moving up significantly. But while there is a 50% chance of a 1st rounder failing, the lure of a Carter or an Anderson has to be strong. And speculation is fun, as DD says.
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Bryan Breese is a super freak you are talking of. 6'5" and 305. Build like Adonis. Athletic ability that is going to blow the roof off of the combine. These things everyone already knows. So why isn't he one or two in this draft? Injuries. With the injuries, I would stay and take him over Carter. Not Anderson though. Can't remember a guy this decorated and with the stats, he has, since Lawrence Taylor. He may be as close to a sure thing at DE/OLB as there has been.
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I'm relatively down on this year's DT class. It's not as bad as last year's (which was dreadful), but it's full of guys who are productive but physically limited or specimens but production-challenged.

I like Carter well enough, but his down-to-down impact doesn't match his press clippings.
Bresee is a terrific athlete who's done jack squat — Carter looks like Aaron Donald as a prospect by comparison.
Dexter, Ika, and Roy are nose tackles, not penetrators.

Then you're down to guys like Kancey (undersized), Brooks (projection inside after playing DE at Bowling Green), and Tavai (Mountain West guy, so buyer beware). Each has flashed ability to split the interior, but has limitations and might only be a rotational piece. Worth having, but what's the investment cost?

I like Dante Sills (West Virginia) and Kobie Turner (Wake Forest by way of Richmond) okay; and Chattanooga's Devonnsha Maxwell has cooked his FCS competition for four years, so maybe. That's maybe a dozen guys, which is literally 300% better than last year's draft prospects.
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thunderspirit wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:48 pm I'm relatively down on this year's DT class.
Yep.
That's why my sims frequently feature 2 DEs early - you've got to help the DL, but the interior options are mostly guys I think can be rotational players if they slide far enough to be value.
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:07 pm
thunderspirit wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:48 pm I'm relatively down on this year's DT class.
Yep.
That's why my sims frequently feature 2 DEs early - you've got to help the DL, but the interior options are mostly guys I think can be rotational players if they slide far enough to be value.
Agree that the edge class is significantly more promising. (But that's another thread.)
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I like Gervon Dexter as a prospect.
Siaki Ika?
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Ika is an interesting prospect in that on paper he doesn't fit this defense at all, but he's an incredible athlete for his size, so he might fit just fine.
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I think carter will be hard for some to understand. That Georgia defense has him play a bunch of different schemes both positionally and systematically.

Hes pretty fucking good and fits this 3T role well.
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mmmc_35 wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:42 am I think carter will be hard for some to understand. That Georgia defense has him play a bunch of different schemes both positionally and systematically.

Hes pretty fucking good and fits this 3T role well.
Fair point. Georgia more or less runs a hybrid 3-4 with Carter often as a 4-tech or 5-tech lineman. It's not a pass-rushing position for the most part. But the coaches at Georgia get paid to win college football games, not necessarily to prepare their players for life in the NFL. (Though it sure helps recruiting when their guys get drafted, huh?)

I do think Carter is very, very good. And I further believe he will thrive in a pure 3-tech role. But he's a projection there, which is always risky.
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thunderspirit wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:48 pm I'm relatively down on this year's DT class. It's not as bad as last year's (which was dreadful), but it's full of guys who are productive but physically limited or specimens but production-challenged.

I like Carter well enough, but his down-to-down impact doesn't match his press clippings.
Bresee is a terrific athlete who's done jack squat — Carter looks like Aaron Donald as a prospect by comparison.
Dexter, Ika, and Roy are nose tackles, not penetrators.
1. In no way shape or form does Jalen Carter look like Aaron Donald coming out of college. I had him as the best player in the draft. The only reason he slipped was due to his lack of size.
2. If in your words Breese hasn't done Jack Squat then what has Carter done?

Carter Career stats:
In 34 games he has 81 tackles- 18.5 tackles for loss- 6 sacks - 2 forced fumbles and 2 passes defended.
Breese Career stats :
In 25 games he has 51 tackles- 15 tackles for loss- 9 sacks - 1 forced fumble and 4 passes defended. The 25 games are the scary part. Otherwise, he would be ahead of Carter in this draft. Maybe he still is on some boards. He was the top prospect coming out of high school and has been over-analyzed since he was a freshman. Curious to see where he goes.

If we need a penetrator then Breese is way more so than Carter. Pretty much played against the same level of competition. If you don't put pressure on the QB in college how you gonna do it as a professional?

Not making a case for one over the other just pointing out stats.

If we don't Draft Anderson we will live to regret it for years to come. There is no one in this draft that has the numbers or the profile that this kid does. The rest is wishing on a star and that gentleman is a very dangerous game. I will say it again in 2002 everyone thought the Colts were going to take Haynesworth who was a perfect fit for the cover 2- 3 tech DT. Instead, they took a guy named Dwight Freeney. Both guys had careers to be proud of. One guy is going to be in the Hall of Fame though. In the cover 2 as great as it is to have 3tech DT it is more important to have a guy who can put pressure on the QB no matter where on the line they play.
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By the way Donalds numbers in College.

In 52 games he has 181 tackles- 66 tackles for loss- 29.5 sacks - 6 forced fumbles and 10 passes defended.

Ridiculous numbers!
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EricTighe wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:08 am2. If in your words Breese hasn't done Jack Squat then what has Carter done?
Raw stats, in my opinion, are fool's gold because comparing them without team context doesn't give you a good idea of the player's impact.

Jalen Carter, in his three years at Georgia, has racked up 7.7% of his team's TFLs (which I find a less noisy stat than sacks but still measures impact), while Bresee has 4.9% of Clemson's — basically a little more than half again as many. According to PFF, you're talking about 1043 defensive snaps for Carter versus 912 for Bresee (the majority for both show them lined up in the B gap).

So some of the discrepancy is due to Carter playing more snaps, certainly, but the share of team stats takes that into account too, cos if you're not playing (such as when Bresee is hurt again) you're not producing.
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EricTighe wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:12 am By the way Donalds numbers in College.

In 52 games he has 181 tackles- 66 tackles for loss- 29.5 sacks - 6 forced fumbles and 10 passes defended.

Ridiculous numbers!
Interestingly, Calijah Kancey has numbers that match up pretty favorably to Aaron Donald's- considering that Aaron Donals is one of the greatest of all time at the position.

In their first three years:

Donald: Games: 39, Tackles: 122, TFL: 37.5, Sacks: 18.5
Kancey: Games: 33, Tackles: 90, TFL: 34.5, Sacks: 16

Donald was 6'1", 285 at the combine. He ran just below 4.7 and benched 35 reps with 32.5" arms.
Kancey may come in at the same weight but slightly shorter. Not sure on his 40 time, arm length or strength- combine will be important.

But still, I would be happy with taking a bet on Kancy in the 3rd or 4th and getting him in the rotation as a pass rush specialist.
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Free agent, not draft prospects.

Javon Hargrave, Eagles: 30 years old at start of '23 season. Although interior DL guys sometimes play effectually into their early-mid '30s, best years may be behind him when Bears start rounding into competitive playoff form. Since 2020, his pass rush grade trails only Aaron Donald and Chris Jones. Sack numbers have increased every year played, with 11.5 in '22. Effective stopping the run.

DaRon Payne, Commandos: 25 years old. 11.5 sacks, 32 solo tackles, 49 QB pressures, and 45 stops in '22. Has always been an effective run stopper and has greatly improved pass rushing.

Larry Ogunjobi: Ended up playing in Pittsburg. 1.5 sacks, 25 solo tackles

Dre'Mont Jones: 26 years old. Has had three consecutive seasons of at least 5.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, 40 pressures (in the last two seasons), and 10 hits on the quarterback.

Dalvin Tomlinson: seems more of a 1T. Effective run stopper. 13 sacks in 6 year career.
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thunderspirit wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 12:36 pm
EricTighe wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:08 am2. If in your words Breese hasn't done Jack Squat then what has Carter done?
Raw stats, in my opinion, are fool's gold because comparing them without team context doesn't give you a good idea of the player's impact.

Jalen Carter, in his three years at Georgia, has racked up 7.7% of his team's TFLs (which I find a less noisy stat than sacks but still measures impact), while Bresee has 4.9% of Clemson's — basically a little more than half again as many. According to PFF, you're talking about 1043 defensive snaps for Carter versus 912 for Bresee (the majority for both show them lined up in the B gap).

So some of the discrepancy is due to Carter playing more snaps, certainly, but the share of team stats takes that into account too, cos if you're not playing (such as when Bresee is hurt again) you're not producing.

These aren't raw stats they're official stats. Saying a guy could do better with better coaching or in a different system. Now that's fool's gold.
I have basic philosophy for the draft that has been more right than wrong. Stats(college stats) + Physical freak (workout numbers)+ non-stop motor = Stud.
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EricTighe wrote: Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:38 pmThese aren't raw stats they're official stats.
They're absolutely raw stats because, by themselves, they tell you nothing about what the player has done in the context of his team's performance.

15 TFLs over 25 games sounds impressive, to be sure. On a team that had 60 TFLs over those 25 games, it's impressive as hell — the player landed 25% of his team's TFLs.
15 TFLs over 25 games on a team that had 150 TFLs over those 25 games — 10% of the team's TFLs — is still pretty nice, but it's obvious the player wasn't as dominant.

That context, the portion of his team's plays that he made, helps better illustrate his impact. That's why I use percentage of the team's total when comparing players.
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Where are you getting your stats?

Georgia had 89 Tackles for loss this year. That was in 15 games.

Carter did do well finishing tied for 3rd with 7.

Georgia had 99 TFL in 2021, Carter again did great finishing with 8.5 TFL that year in 14 games.

So in total Georgia, as a team had 188 TFL in 30 games. Carter played in 29 games and had 15.5 TFL. I'm not a genius but even I know that isn't 25%.

Official stats from Georgia football.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sc ... /2021.html


Again this is great against the run. If that is what you want then draft him at number 1. He isn't as good against the pass and thus you are expecting a kid to do something he has never done. Is he a hell football player? Yes, but he is not Will Anderson Jr. I would go as far as saying that Brian Breese has a higher upside than Carter does. If Breese can stay healthy? Remember he is now in his 2nd year from a Major injury, this is the year most players return back to form unless your named Adrian Peterson.
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