2023 Schedule

[Moriarty]

Yea yea yea, early and all that.

But that home schedule is legitimately one they could make a run at 8-0 for if they play the offseason right and Fields takes that next step.

I might run the SoS analysis on W-L and Point Differential if I get some time. I've read point differential is more predictive of following season SoS. Be curious if it holds up for 2022 and what 2023 looks like.

That would be interesting

[Rusty Trombagent]

A funny thing about this current season... We started it with the 24th hardest SOS and ended with the 1st.

Just a funny little tidbit for the "next season's schedule looks pretty easy" crowd.

[The Cooler King]

Okay so going into 2022:

Opponent SoS based on W-L (141-148, 0.488)
Opponent SoS based on PD (138-151, 0.478)
So both pretty close predictions

Actual SoS based on W-L (163-122, 0.571)
Actual SoS based on PD (155-134, 0.537)

So our schedule surprised in any case over last year, but definitely less on point differential than by W-L.

2023 schedule:
Opponent SoS based on W-L (143-145, 0.496)
Opponent SoS based on PD (139-150, 0.480)

So a bit weaker off PD, but most of this is driven by the division, notably Minnesota.

[The Cooler King]

The really weird thing is you can basically chalk up the entirety of the variance on SoS to three teams:

Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants

Everywhere else you can see basically where one team improved, it was offset by another team getting worse. 34 more games won from prior year, and 29 of those come from there (division gets counted 2x in SoS calcs)

[IE]

Don't forget the Bears' own contribution to the W-L of their opponents. They made all the NFCN teams 2 wins better. Even for a single game...if we're talking about changes to aggregate SoS under .1 then the .0588 added by a single extra win for any given team ... that adds up.

The Bears went a long way to making their SoS larger by losing so much. And then if we're projecting SoS next season the Bears could (should?) be facing a schedule than is softer than calculated based on W-L. It makes sense that the PD SoS for the Bears next year is lower/softer than the W-L... they lost a lot of close games including to the division rivals.

@Kooler I do like the PD version better because W-L often doesn't really speak to the competitiveness whereas points especially point differential definitely do.

[Rusty Trombagent]

The Bears went a long way to making their SoS larger by losing so much. And then if we're projecting SoS next season the Bears could (should?) be facing a schedule than is softer than calculated based on W-L. It makes sense that the PD SoS for the Bears next year is lower/softer than the W-L... they lost a lot of close games including to the division rivals.

That was kind of the argument I was going to mount in the Flus thread in regards to giving him a free pass because our SOS was so hard... but I lost steam and interest.

ALTHOUGH it is funny that the Texans ended their own disastrous season with a middle of the pack .481 to our .571. Sooo, lol the AFC South.

[IE]

The Bears went a long way to making their SoS larger by losing so much. And then if we're projecting SoS next season the Bears could (should?) be facing a schedule than is softer than calculated based on W-L. It makes sense that the PD SoS for the Bears next year is lower/softer than the W-L... they lost a lot of close games including to the division rivals.

That was kind of the argument I was going to mount in the Flus thread in regards to giving him a free pass because our SOS was so hard... but I lost steam and interest.

ALTHOUGH it is funny that the Texans ended their own disastrous season with a middle of the pack .481 to our .571. Sooo, lol the AFC South.

Yeah - I can't wrap my mind around any serious discussion of Poles or Flus with regard to W/L (let along factoring in SoS which is sort of immaterial given the circumstances). Doing so, IMO, is rejecting the concept that they deliberately tanked - which is find completely obvious. If someone doesn't like the tank then that's a slightly different conversation, I think. But even then that is criticizing for L when the Ls were on purpose. So...

It's like watching someone seriously critique the Washington Generals over their record.

[The Cooler King]

Yea, the suckiness of your own team certainly plays a role, but as Texans shown isn't absolute.

I mean across the board, you can see almost all the hardest SoS teams played one or both of the AFC and NFC East. Those two divisions lacked any really weak team.

If I'm thinking about the math right, dropping the Bears games entirely, our opponent SoS would still be 0.556

That appears to still be the hardest SoS, even before getting to possibility of replacing those games with a average NFL opponent.

Like just to take the most direct comparisons, Detroit and Green Bay:
Common opponents all three have a SoS of 106-61 (0.635)

How does the non-common stack up?

Bears (DETx2, GBx2, ATL, SF, HOU) 80-88 (0.483)
Lions (CHIx2, GBx2, SEA, CAR, JAX) 72-98 (0.395)
Packers (CHIx2, DETx2, TB, LA, TEN) 64-106 (0.369)

Even if we strip out the Bears, Lions and Packers remaining SoS is 0.482 and 0.447. So Lions had about as tough of a schedule if we exclude Bears and Lions games from the Calc. Packers had it easy compared to Bears, even excluding the Bears from it. Although the biggest mover for the Bears SoS is SF, a Team they beat!

Anyways, random musings aside about 2022, scheduling works in weird ways, even when you share 9-10 opponents, the other 4 can add up to a big difference.

[The Cooler King]

Trying to guess now who could flip the script next year that turns the schedule from easy to hard again.

Denver. Things looked immediately better without Hackett. A new HC that gets Russ even to average levels of play makes them a potentially tough team, as I think they'll continue to put their best foot forward and not retool. Also, they suffered from bad variance according to Point Differential.

Browns. Also unlucky per PD. Full season with Watson. A FO not afraid to be all in. So should be agressive in building to win.

Las Vegas is really interesting. 2nd biggest unlucky team per PD. Don't see McDaniel trying a rebuild, but what their answer at QB will be a huge determining factor. They have some skill and weapons if they replace Carr efficiently.

Arizona was unlucky per PD, but with a FO and HC overhaul and Murray likely out for a good chunk of season, this one shouldn't flip too much, and potentially not at all. Just an incredible 14 month franchise turnaround from the last remaining undefeated team in 2021. I remember asking what separated them from Bears mid- last season... Not a lot apparently!

Minnesota is an obvious target for regression (a negative PD team who won 13!), and since that counts twice, will move projected v actual SoS a lot.

I guess the whole of the NFC south could rebound. It's a wide open division so I think they'll all be trying. But pending what Brady does, they all could have big question marks at QB. More likely one or two rebounds a done or two fall. So might be a slightly stronger SoS component next year, but not likely by much.

Overall, hard to see now who's likely to flip the script. But if I was doing this same exercise last year, would I have seen it? Probably not NYG. I'd think I may have called some of the others though....

Anyways, that's why you play the games I guess.

[The Cooler King]

Another interesting scheduling possibility.

Right now, NFC North could be the only team not to win 1 playoff game. If TB loses tonight, NFC south won't have any either. AFC west hasn't won either yet, but Chiefs had the bye, and figure to be favorite in the divisional round.

Buuut, there's like a ~10-12% chance the Bears could have a schedule next year where their opponents won zero playoff games the prior year (Cowboys win tonight and KC gets upset by Jags). Unless you count a bye as a de facto win - which it kind of is for SoS purposes. Still a funny technical possibility.

[BigDaddy]

Secure the offensive and defensive lines with good, long term talent, get Fields a true #1 WR and get him up to speed with where he should be in his development and I'll take a 7-10 record and smile.

[The Cooler King]

Fixing both lines and a WR1 for Fields? And you're happy at 7-10?

Theres no way that's a happy outcome. They should be able to stumble ass backwards into 3 extra wins even if they had a bad offseason.

[IE]

10 wins minimum. Unless JF1 gets hurt then 7-9. And that's just based on the potential of Poles' bank and draft capital.

[Middleguard]

My analysis of the Bears' upcoming schedule does not look as rosy as the rest of you think it is. I have the Bears with the 15th hardest schedule in the NFL, the 7th hardest in the NFC, and the hardest in the division. This is based on my own ratings of teams last season and their home field advantages.

To offset the bias caused by the Bears looking to be so soft on the schedule of everyone they face this year, I recalculated as if the Bears had ranked #10 last year. That made little difference: 17th hardest in the NFL, 9th hardest in the NFC, and 2nd hardest in the division.

[Mikefive]

Seems like I remember hearing going into this season (2022) that everyone thought the Bears would have the easiest schedule in league

I could be wrong, but I heard it was supposed to be the 5th easiest, but ended up being the hardest. And that's why predicting anything based on the schedule with only the data of what teams did in 2022 is pretty silly.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

The NFL have announced the home teams for the 2023 London International Series games:

Tottenham
Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans

Wembley
Jacksonville Jaguars

Sadly for UK Bears fans, none of these 3 teams are on the Bears schedule this year.

Given that the Bears were one of 6 clubs awarded International Home Marketing Areas status for the UK for 5 years starting in 2022 I'm hoping they visit again soon. Maybe they'll announce some Bears marketing events at some point.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Thanks HRS, disappointing but we live in hope

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

It's going to be even more fun if Rodgers gets shipped off to the Jets. Then we don't have to see his fucking ass at all year.

[dplank]

Detroit scares me most, Dan Campbell has them playing good tough football and they have a lot of talent starting to blossom

[RichH55]

Detroit scares me most, Dan Campbell has them playing good tough football and they have a lot of talent starting to blossom

If Rodgers is out of GB then Detroit is the "scariest" by default

[Rusty Trombagent]

Detroit scares me most, Dan Campbell has them playing good tough football and they have a lot of talent starting to blossom

If Rodgers is out of GB then Detroit is the "scariest" by default

[crueltyabc]

Ok the official schedule release is next week but just looking at the opponents post-draft...

Home
Falcons - their rebuild is going fine but they're not a powerhouse yet
Panthers - lots of new/change in this org so they should under-perform even though they have some talent
Broncos - I'm a Sean Payton believer so I think they'll be pretty good. Roster still looks solid
Raiders - Jimmy G and tons of rookies on defense. Probably still suck
Cardinals - if they trade Dhop and kyler comes back slowly they could be the worst team in the league.

Away
Chiefs - awesome
Chargers - they always look awesome this time of year
Saints - Derek Carr is decent and it sucks to play in the dome.
Buccaneers - Bottom five team in the league
Commanders - middling team
Browns - Watson hasn't played in years but he's probably still good and the rest of the team is talented

Outlook
Wins- Panthers, Cardinals, Bucs
Tough to say - Raiders, Vikings x2, Packers x2, Commanders, Broncos, Saints, Browns, Lions x2, Falcons
Loss - Chiefs, Chargers

This points to an 8 win season which is fine with me. A schedule that includes QBs with new teams earlier in the season could help get an extra win. Tbd on May 11th

[spudbear]

Oh yeah, go go go whoever plays Carolina! Bears have a chance to add a L for the Panthers, so there's an extra investment for that game.

I sometimes wonder if the NFCN will be about as bad as the NFCS from last season. Both will probably be lower than the NFCE and NFCW.

[Cartman]

I'm going with 8 wins in 2023. Which, imo, is a very nice step forward. Hoping with a good draft in 2024 we're ready to compete for the division next year.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

In case anyone missed it, the full schedule with dates is going to be released on Thursday 8pm ET (or Friday 3am BST for those in the UK).

[dplank]

The Jags are the 18th team in the past 20 seasons to go from worst to first in their division. The last six 3 game winners have done the following in their next season:
Loins: 2021, 9-8
Viqueens: 2011, 10-6, made the playoffs
Bucs: 2009, 10-6
Loins: 2006, 7-9
Bills: 2001, 8-8
Colts: 1998, 13-3, made the playoffs

Cue the Bears fight song.

What this highlights is that it's not unusual at all for a team like ours to have a big jump and even make the playoffs. A read a lot of folks that seem to think that's a fantasy and are only looking for incremental improvement this year, but it's not only not a fantasy to make a huge jump it's actually kinda normal. I get that not all 3 win teams make this jump, but you can almost set your watch to the fact that SOME team is going to jump from worst to first this upcoming season as they do 90% of the NFL season. Here are last years last place teams: Bears, Jets, Broncos, Browns, Texans, Commanders, Cardinals, Falcons. If we assume the 90% holds, then one of these teams is going to win their division, let's look at each.

Of these teams, the Jets obviously jump out as this years most probable because of Rodgers - but they do play in a really tough division, will they beat out Buffalo? I dunno about that. Even still, Jets are probably the most likely IMO. The Broncos, Texans, and Cardinals have no chance IMO. The Browns have a tough road because of their division, all tough teams and Cincy is elite so I really can't see it - but they do have Watson for a full season so I suppose it's possible. The Commanders aren't doing it without a QB IMO, with 3 really good teams in front of them also. The Falcons? Well they have a shot I suppose because their division sucks ass. But they have no QB either so it's hard to see it. And then there's the Bears....

We have the QB IMO, if he takes another step in the passing game we have a superstar. We play in a weak division because GB lost Rodgers, which really opens it up for any team to take the North. Minny and Detroit are the favorites, but neither are a shoe in either. I think we have a legit shot at winning the NFCN. This is a big part of why I want to add a pass rusher, I think our shot is real and I want to try and make it happen.

[The Grizzly One]

We either make a big jump because Fields is the real deal or we are a 6-7 win team needing a QB.

I see the former as we win 10. At least.

[Grizzled]

The Jags are the 18th team in the past 20 seasons to go from worst to first in their division. The last six 3 game winners have done the following in their next season:
Loins: 2021, 9-8
Viqueens: 2011, 10-6, made the playoffs
Bucs: 2009, 10-6
Loins: 2006, 7-9
Bills: 2001, 8-8
Colts: 1998, 13-3, made the playoffs

Cue the Bears fight song.

What this highlights is that it's not unusual at all for a team like ours to have a big jump and even make the playoffs. A read a lot of folks that seem to think that's a fantasy and are only looking for incremental improvement this year, but it's not only not a fantasy to make a huge jump it's actually kinda normal. I get that not all 3 win teams make this jump, but you can almost set your watch to the fact that SOME team is going to jump from worst to first this upcoming season as they do 90% of the NFL season. Here are last years last place teams: Bears, Jets, Broncos, Browns, Texans, Commanders, Cardinals, Falcons. If we assume the 90% holds, then one of these teams is going to win their division, let's look at each.

Of these teams, the Jets obviously jump out as this years most probable because of Rodgers - but they do play in a really tough division, will they beat out Buffalo? I dunno about that. Even still, Jets are probably the most likely IMO. The Broncos, Texans, and Cardinals have no chance IMO. The Browns have a tough road because of their division, all tough teams and Cincy is elite so I really can't see it - but they do have Watson for a full season so I suppose it's possible. The Commanders aren't doing it without a QB IMO, with 3 really good teams in front of them also. The Falcons? Well they have a shot I suppose because their division sucks ass. But they have no QB either so it's hard to see it. And then there's the Bears....

We have the QB IMO, if he takes another step in the passing game we have a superstar. We play in a weak division because GB lost Rodgers, which really opens it up for any team to take the North. Minny and Detroit are the favorites, but neither are a shoe in either. I think we have a legit shot at winning the NFCN. This is a big part of why I want to add a pass rusher, I think our shot is real and I want to try and make it happen.

I agree, the North is open. The Bears could end up on top. Talk about lighting up the Board.

[LacertineForest]

[LacertineForest]

Being in the midwest definitely has its perks.