Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[dplank]

If the Bears draft Carter and the first QB drafted goes to Carolina at 9 or something like that, I'll defend Poles. If they draft Carter and 3 QBs go in the next 3 picks... I'll freak the fuck out

My personal rule with trade downs is to try and not create any hypotheticals.

Find the closest trade down after your pick. Would you take that same deal? If it's no, then you're probably just creating a fictional reality where there was a deal that didn't exist.

I do wonder cynically how the FA value hawks view this same scenario. Seems like a lot of calls to trade down even if the return isn’t spectacular or on par with “trade chart value”.

[wab]

My personal rule with trade downs is to try and not create any hypotheticals.

Find the closest trade down after your pick. Would you take that same deal? If it's no, then you're probably just creating a fictional reality where there was a deal that didn't exist.

I do wonder cynically how the FA value hawks view this same scenario. Seems like a lot of calls to trade down even if the return isn’t spectacular or on par with “trade chart value”.

There are two general schools of thought I've found when it comes to wanting the Bears to trade down.

One - Exactly what you said. A lot of people don't care about getting value, they just want to amass picks. Give them 12 picks in round 5 and they are thrilled.

Two - People are overinflating the value of the #1 pick and feel like anything less than 3 first rounders, 3 second rounders, a couple 3rd and 4ths and a player or two, is a slap in the face. I blame this on the draft sims that create unrealistic values.

[Arkansasbear]

I do wonder cynically how the FA value hawks view this same scenario. Seems like a lot of calls to trade down even if the return isn’t spectacular or on par with “trade chart value”.

There are two general schools of thought I've found when it comes to wanting the Bears to trade down.

One - Exactly what you said. A lot of people don't care about getting value, they just want to amass picks. Give them 12 picks in round 5 and they are thrilled.

Two - People are overinflating the value of the #1 pick and feel like anything less than 3 first rounders, 3 second rounders, a couple 3rd and 4ths and a player or two, is a slap in the face. I blame this on the draft sims that create unrealistic values.

I'll add this to the equation - You have Houston and the Colts at 2 and 4. Both need QBs, both are in the same division. I think that could result in a bidding war to get to number one to make sure a team in your division doesn't land the guy you feel is the must have QB.

Granted that assume both teams fall in love with a QB they feel is far better than the rest and don't want to face him twice a year for years to come.

If both teams feel the top three guys are pretty interchangable (which I don't think is very possible as I think the top three QBs are vastly different in the skill sets they will bring), or one or both don't find any of them to be "must have QB" then I think the return we will get will be much less than I"m thinking it will be.

You also have the poker aspect of which team blinks first. It could be Houston and the Colts do value a guy so much they will pay a premium, but they won't start there. Poles could see a "good" return for the first pick and give in before he is able to squeeze them and get a "great" return. This year's draft is going to be a ton of fun up until we know what happens.

[Moriarty]

Overly high expectations is definitely a (very common) thing

Accepting overly low offers is really just a hypothetical thing. The position the Bears are in, they are going to get very good offers to move. Now, as a hypothetical, is going from 1 to 4 for, say, two R5s worth it?
If you know which DL AZ is taking and it's not your first choice, then I guess getting 2 5s and the same player you'd take at 1 is still an improvement.
Although, for that weak an offer I might develop Mark Hatley Syndrome and declare "Fuck You, nobody's taking advantage of this new guy" and refuse just out of spite.

[The Cooler King]

Overly high expectations is definitely a (very common) thing

Accepting overly low offers is really just a hypothetical thing. The position the Bears are in, they are going to get very good offers to move. Now, as a hypothetical, is going from 1 to 4 for, say, two R5s worth it?
If you know which DL AZ is taking and it's not your first choice, then I guess getting 2 5s and the same player you'd take at 1 is still an improvement.
Although, for that weak an offer I might develop Mark Hatley Syndrome and declare "Fuck You, nobody's taking advantage of this new guy" and refuse just out of spite.

Yea, I'd stay put for 2 5ths. Way too much uncertainty there.

[Grizzled]

It's all in how how teams value the available QBs. There's no concensus Joe Burrow or Matt Stafford so teams might not be willing to give up the insane number of picks we want the Bears to get. But the annual hype machine has 3 months to kick into gear, I think teams are going to be talking themselves into their guy and there will be deals to be made.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

There are two general schools of thought I've found when it comes to wanting the Bears to trade down.

One - Exactly what you said. A lot of people don't care about getting value, they just want to amass picks. Give them 12 picks in round 5 and they are thrilled.

Two - People are overinflating the value of the #1 pick and feel like anything less than 3 first rounders, 3 second rounders, a couple 3rd and 4ths and a player or two, is a slap in the face. I blame this on the draft sims that create unrealistic values.

I'll add this to the equation - You have Houston and the Colts at 2 and 4. Both need QBs, both are in the same division. I think that could result in a bidding war to get to number one to make sure a team in your division doesn't land the guy you feel is the must have QB.

Granted that assume both teams fall in love with a QB they feel is far better than the rest and don't want to face him twice a year for years to come.

If both teams feel the top three guys are pretty interchangable (which I don't think is very possible as I think the top three QBs are vastly different in the skill sets they will bring), or one or both don't find any of them to be "must have QB" then I think the return we will get will be much less than I"m thinking it will be.

You also have the poker aspect of which team blinks first. It could be Houston and the Colts do value a guy so much they will pay a premium, but they won't start there. Poles could see a "good" return for the first pick and give in before he is able to squeeze them and get a "great" return. This year's draft is going to be a ton of fun up until we know what happens.

I'll throw another wrinkle in there. I don't think the Seahawks are sold on Geno Smith. They want to sign him, but I wouldn't expect a 6yr/$120M deal is forthcoming. My guess is they are more in line with 3yrs/$75M with $50M guaranteed. They want a new QB to go along with their talented receiving corps. I'm sure Geno values himself more than that, and will look for other options. The Seahawks have two first round picks as well. I expect them to fall in love with one of the QB's, and with Denver's pick at #5, they probably don't expect to be this close to the top next year. I could see Texas and the Colts duking in out for the #1 spot, but don't be surprised if Seattle looks to flip their two first round picks to move up to #2.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I do wonder cynically how the FA value hawks view this same scenario. Seems like a lot of calls to trade down even if the return isn’t spectacular or on par with “trade chart value”.

There are two general schools of thought I've found when it comes to wanting the Bears to trade down.

One - Exactly what you said. A lot of people don't care about getting value, they just want to amass picks. Give them 12 picks in round 5 and they are thrilled.

Two - People are overinflating the value of the #1 pick and feel like anything less than 3 first rounders, 3 second rounders, a couple 3rd and 4ths and a player or two, is a slap in the face. I blame this on the draft sims that create unrealistic values.

I am in camp #2. I'm not over inflating the #1 pick, but I think if Poles looks to trade for quantity of 1st & 2nd round picks, vs. getting married to a particular player, he could stack up 2-3 1st round, and 3-4 2nd rounders. I would rather have 5-6 high quality players at key positions of need, than one (potentially) generational talent.

[Z Bear]

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

I do not think enough people clicked through this artcile to show the REALISTIC returns the Bears would get so I am summarizing here for my lazy breatheren. The writer used BOTH trade value charts when coming up with these scenarios and almost all of them are slightly skewed against the Bears' favor. Expecting much more than what is listed below probably will not happen. Maybe one of the secondary picks are round earlier or another late rounder, but that is about it.

HOU (#1 and the Bears 3rd) : 1ST ROUND PICK (2), 3RD ROUND PICK (65), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
AZ: 1ST ROUND PICK (3) ; 2ND ROUND PICK (34) 5TH ROUND PICK (136), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
IND: 1ST ROUND PICK (4), 2ND ROUND PICK (35), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 4TH ROUND PICK
SEA (#1 and the Bears 3rd): 1ST ROUND PICK (5), 2ND ROUND PICK (37), 2ND ROUND PICK (51), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
LV: 1ST ROUND PICK (7), 2ND ROUND PICK (38), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
ATL: 1ST ROUND PICK (8), 2ND ROUND PICK (44), 4TH ROUND PICK (112), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 3RD ROUND PICK
CAR: 1ST ROUND PICK (9), 2ND ROUND PICK (39), 2ND ROUND PICK (60), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
NYJ: 1ST ROUND PICK (13), 2ND ROUND PICK (43), 3RD ROUND PICK (64), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK



Draft Value Charts to do calculations:
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... stTeam=SEA

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... h-Hill.asp

[dplank]

This lazy brethren thanks you. These seem realistic, and I still like the Indy deal best

[wab]

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

I do not think enough people clicked through this artcile to show the REALISTIC returns the Bears would get so I am summarizing here for my lazy breatheren. The writer used BOTH trade value charts when coming up with these scenarios and almost all of them are slightly skewed against the Bears' favor. Expecting much more than what is listed below probably will not happen. Maybe one of the secondary picks are round earlier or another late rounder, but that is about it.

HOU (#1 and the Bears 3rd) : 1ST ROUND PICK (2), 3RD ROUND PICK (65), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
AZ: 1ST ROUND PICK (3) ; 2ND ROUND PICK (34) 5TH ROUND PICK (136), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
IND: 1ST ROUND PICK (4), 2ND ROUND PICK (35), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 4TH ROUND PICK
SEA (#1 and the Bears 3rd): 1ST ROUND PICK (5), 2ND ROUND PICK (37), 2ND ROUND PICK (51), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
LV: 1ST ROUND PICK (7), 2ND ROUND PICK (38), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
ATL: 1ST ROUND PICK (8), 2ND ROUND PICK (44), 4TH ROUND PICK (112), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 3RD ROUND PICK
CAR: 1ST ROUND PICK (9), 2ND ROUND PICK (39), 2ND ROUND PICK (60), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
NYJ: 1ST ROUND PICK (13), 2ND ROUND PICK (43), 3RD ROUND PICK (64), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK



Draft Value Charts to do calculations:
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... stTeam=SEA

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... h-Hill.asp

That Seattle deal feels funky. Their two first round picks don't even equal the value of the #1 pick, so the Bears adding a 3rd seems unrealistic.

Their two R1 picks, the #51 pick, and their two 5th round picks would be equal value, and IMO would be more enticing even if there's no meaningful pick added in 2024.

[Rusty Trombagent]

[wab]

Hell no. HELL no.

[bbaker]

I guess we aren’t the only fan base that comes up with fucking idiotic trade ideas that are completely unrealistic.

[Grizzled]

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

I do not think enough people clicked through this artcile to show the REALISTIC returns the Bears would get so I am summarizing here for my lazy breatheren. The writer used BOTH trade value charts when coming up with these scenarios and almost all of them are slightly skewed against the Bears' favor. Expecting much more than what is listed below probably will not happen. Maybe one of the secondary picks are round earlier or another late rounder, but that is about it.

HOU (#1 and the Bears 3rd) : 1ST ROUND PICK (2), 3RD ROUND PICK (65), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
AZ: 1ST ROUND PICK (3) ; 2ND ROUND PICK (34) 5TH ROUND PICK (136), 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
IND: 1ST ROUND PICK (4), 2ND ROUND PICK (35), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 4TH ROUND PICK
SEA (#1 and the Bears 3rd): 1ST ROUND PICK (5), 2ND ROUND PICK (37), 2ND ROUND PICK (51), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
LV: 1ST ROUND PICK (7), 2ND ROUND PICK (38), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK
ATL: 1ST ROUND PICK (8), 2ND ROUND PICK (44), 4TH ROUND PICK (112), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 3RD ROUND PICK
CAR: 1ST ROUND PICK (9), 2ND ROUND PICK (39), 2ND ROUND PICK (60), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK
NYJ: 1ST ROUND PICK (13), 2ND ROUND PICK (43), 3RD ROUND PICK (64), 2024 1ST ROUND PICK, 2024 2ND ROUND PICK



Draft Value Charts to do calculations:
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... stTeam=SEA

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Valu ... h-Hill.asp

LOL, thanks for re-posting, I posted that link a few days ago. It's a bit less than the massive haul Bears fans want (think Dolphins-49ers trade a few years back). But we'll see, a team or 2 might just absolutely fall in love with a guy, have to get him, and give up the farm. Ballard in Indy is fighting for his job, seems the most likely to do so. Another factor is that teams are not going to want to give up picks which will allow them to surround a new QB with the offensive talent to allow him to succeed.

[Arkansasbear]

. Another factor is that teams are not going to want to give up picks which will allow them to surround a new QB with the offensive talent to allow him to succeed.

That's what I was thinking when I said Houston could come out and offer the #2 pick plus next year's first round pick to get the #1 pick. Lets them keep all of this year's picks to be able to help out their rookie QB.

[crueltyabc]

These are still good collections of assets! No need to panic because it doesn't say 3 first rounders. It looks like draftek is saying #1 is worth...

1x 1-5 pick plus 2x top 100 picks
1x 5-10 pick plus 3x top 100 picks
1x 10-15 pick plus 4x top 100 picks

[o-pus #40 in B major]

This situation is so surreal that maybe I got quantum transferred into a different Bears universe or something.

[RichH55]

Thats bad - and yep - thats the nature of fandom

Like there is a vocal contingent of every fanbase that thinks the Refs are out to get them. Every single NFL team.

[Z Bear]

. Another factor is that teams are not going to want to give up picks which will allow them to surround a new QB with the offensive talent to allow him to succeed.

That's what I was thinking when I said Houston could come out and offer the #2 pick plus next year's first round pick to get the #1 pick. Lets them keep all of this year's picks to be able to help out their rookie QB.

According to he chart next years first rounder for Houston is not enough. Normally next years picks are worth this years first pick from a round later. So according to the Rich Hill chart everyones 2024 Round 1 pick is worth 184, 2024 round 2 worth 80, etc. #2 is worth 717 while the 2024 #1 is worth 184, so they would still owe us 99 points.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Poles says no

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Thats bad - and yep - thats the nature of fandom

Like there is a vocal contingent of every fanbase that thinks the Refs are out to get them. Every single NFL team.

And it’s only true in our case

[Heinz D.]

Their two R1 picks, the #51 pick, and their two 5th round picks would be equal value, and IMO would be more enticing even if there's no meaningful pick added in 2024.

Absolutely this. Get that second #1. '24 picks are nice, and all, but work on really building the foundation of the squad this year, and see what happens after that. You'd probably have to forget about #51, shift that pain to next year, or forget it entirely.

Then, consider trading one of those picks (preferably #20)...

[thunderspirit]

I'll be very surprised — make that stunned — if the Bears pick up a second #1 pick in 2023 from any team that currently has two #1s. Even Philadelphia. I just don't see any team valuing this class of QBs highly enough. Maybe Stroud. Maybe.

I could always be wrong, and I'll eat crow if I am. But I'm not seeing it.

[wab]

I'll be very surprised — make that stunned — if the Bears pick up a second #1 pick in 2023 from any team that currently has two #1s. Even Philadelphia. I just don't see any team valuing this class of QBs highly enough. Maybe Stroud. Maybe.

I could always be wrong, and I'll eat crow if I am. But I'm not seeing it.

I don't think it's likely either, but in the case of the Seahawks trade scenario, that's what the value is. I also don't see Poles giving up a 3rd in that fictional deal.

[IE]

I'll be very surprised — make that stunned — if the Bears pick up a second #1 pick in 2023 from any team that currently has two #1s. Even Philadelphia. I just don't see any team valuing this class of QBs highly enough. Maybe Stroud. Maybe.

I could always be wrong, and I'll eat crow if I am. But I'm not seeing it.

Probably not from the same team. But it is entirely possible to trade to 2 or 4 and then again down to 8 or 9 and get a first from two different teams.

[dplank]

I have almost no preference between a 1st round this year or next year, and never really understood why a future 1st rounder was devalued 50% according to the trade charts. I get it's better to have it now, but twice better? If we can add a 2nd or 2 3rds for a trade back, and net a 1st next year, I'm in. Its still an extra 1st, just delayed a year.

[RichH55]

I'll be very surprised — make that stunned — if the Bears pick up a second #1 pick in 2023 from any team that currently has two #1s. Even Philadelphia. I just don't see any team valuing this class of QBs highly enough. Maybe Stroud. Maybe.

I could always be wrong, and I'll eat crow if I am. But I'm not seeing it.

Probably not from the same team. But it is entirely possible to trade to 2 or 4 and then again down to 8 or 9 and get a first from two different teams.

This is about where I'm at - though even then I see Thunder's point about it might not be 2 1sts in THIS draft

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I have almost no preference between a 1st round this year or next year, and never really understood why a future 1st rounder was devalued 50% according to the trade charts. I get it's better to have it now, but twice better? If we can add a 2nd or 2 3rds for a trade back, and net a 1st next year, I'm in. Its still an extra 1st, just delayed a year.

A bird in the hand ……

You might get a first from the team that then wins the SB = a second round pick.
But a first this year and you know where you’ll be picking.

[RichH55]

I have almost no preference between a 1st round this year or next year, and never really understood why a future 1st rounder was devalued 50% according to the trade charts. I get it's better to have it now, but twice better? If we can add a 2nd or 2 3rds for a trade back, and net a 1st next year, I'm in. Its still an extra 1st, just delayed a year.

I tend to agree here

There is also a potential bonus to trading back from like pick 9 to Pick 20 or so and adding the pick next year -
A) It will be fun to root against whomevers pick we have
and
B) They could suck more than expected and the pick is way higher the next year (See Denver )