Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[dplank]

I dunno, it's not impossible that after 8 years of riding the bench that Geno Smith has worked hard and dramatically improved as a player (he was always talented), and combined with a good situation/scheme fit he has found himself. He's not that old and the tread on his tires is light.

[RichH55]

Seattle is a definite wild card on this.

[Grizzled]

Don't buy Seattle picking a QB highly, it's not the Jon Schneider mentality. Maybe with their 2nd pick in the 1st round or first pick in the 2nd. The Bears might be able to fill ig DL and OL holes with top guys in free agency. There aren't WRs of that quality. Hopkins will be traded and should get interest despite his age plus a probable peice tag which isn't too high. Michael Thomas will be cut but his injury history makes him a hard one to depend on. Mike Evans might become available if Tampa breaks it down for a rebuild. Brandon Cooks is still productive and wants out; his price shouldn't be high either. He might be made part of a Bears-Texans trade. The Raiders might throw Davante Adams into any negotiations with the Bears.

[HurricaneBear]

I dunno, it's not impossible that after 8 years of riding the bench that Geno Smith has worked hard and dramatically improved as a player (he was always talented), and combined with a good situation/scheme fit he has found himself. He's not that old and the tread on his tires is light.

It worked for Rich Gannon

[HurricaneBear]

A future first for #4 to #1 doesn't cut it on any of the trade charts, not even the new analytic ones. I can find one chart that might support a future first and 2023 third, but it's barely there and at that point obvious cones down to how your #1 guy rates against your #4 guy.

True, but I think when you are looking at a franchise QB everything goes out the window.

Poles will have the luxury of pitting the following teams against each other:

Texans
Colts
Seahawks (maybe)
Lions (maybe)
Raiders
Falcons
Panthers
Titans
Jets


All it takes is one person to get greedy/impulsive (hello, Jim Irsay) and it's in the bag.

To make it better, 3 of those teams being in the same division has to up the ante a bit. You mention Irsay, if i'm Poles i'm getting his number from George and giving him a direct call and start talking about how much the Titans need a QB. I can't imagine he'd let the Titans jump his Colts.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Ideal scenario is a QB hungry team like the Jets to come in and trade for pick 3.
Then the Colts get twitchy. That’ll make the Texans twitchy and we could potentially do a 2 step trade down.
With Texans to number 2 and then with Indy to number 4

[G08]

True, but I think when you are looking at a franchise QB everything goes out the window.

Poles will have the luxury of pitting the following teams against each other:

Texans
Colts
Seahawks (maybe)
Lions (maybe)
Raiders
Falcons
Panthers
Titans
Jets


All it takes is one person to get greedy/impulsive (hello, Jim Irsay) and it's in the bag.

To make it better, 3 of those teams being in the same division has to up the ante a bit. You mention Irsay, if i'm Poles i'm getting his number from George and giving him a direct call and start talking about how much the Titans need a QB. I can't imagine he'd let the Titans jump his Colts.

Great point! There also are rumblings that Irsay is beyond fed up with Ballard's approach at bringing in stopgap veteran QBs. I'd have to think we can take them to the cleaners, UNLESS Poles feels some sense of loyalty to Ballard since I believe that was his mentor once upon a time.

[wab]

I don't see the Jets going with another rookie. They have a roster ready to compete. Seems like a possible Derek Carr destination.

[Arkansasbear]

I don't see the Jets going with another rookie. They have a roster ready to compete. Seems like a possible Derek Carr destination.

I was thinking Jimmy G for them but Carr would be a good move.

[wab]

I don't see the Jets going with another rookie. They have a roster ready to compete. Seems like a possible Derek Carr destination.

I was thinking Jimmy G for them but Carr would be a good move.

Jimmy G = Raiders IMO

[o-pus #40 in B major]

To make it better, 3 of those teams being in the same division has to up the ante a bit. You mention Irsay, if i'm Poles i'm getting his number from George and giving him a direct call and start talking about how much the Titans need a QB. I can't imagine he'd let the Titans jump his Colts.

Great point! There also are rumblings that Irsay is beyond fed up with Ballard's approach at bringing in stopgap veteran QBs. I'd have to think we can take them to the cleaners, UNLESS Poles feels some sense of loyalty to Ballard since I believe that was his mentor once upon a time.

Your last sentence here is one step beyond, sorry to point that out..

[G08]

I was thinking Jimmy G for them but Carr would be a good move.

Jimmy G = Raiders IMO

Agreed, and I like Carr quite a bit for the Jets.

[Grizzled]

Book it - Brady to the Jets or Raiders. Erin or Carr to the Commandos.

[Rusty Trombagent]

As ridiculous as bears' fans are being regarding the draft bounty we are supposedly about to receive, this Cardinals' take is 100X worse:

[Grizzled]

As ridiculous as bears' fans are being regarding the draft bounty we are supposedly about to receive, this Cardinals' take is 100X worse:

More likely a 3rd. Maybe two 4ths.

[The Cooler King]

I mean it's just an absolutely deranged graphic. I love it so much. So little logic is in there. It's the perfect click bait.

[docc]

Kyle Dutko
@DutkoKyle
Replying to
@PHNX_Cardinals
Insane if you think the cardinals are getting a first for a 30 year old receiver coming off a PED suspension, who has been a headache in the locker room this past season, and lastly wants a new contract. Try a 3rd…

Yeah perfect for a locker room full of young players ,,

[The Marshall Plan]

As ridiculous as bears' fans are being regarding the draft bounty we are supposedly about to receive, this Cardinals' take is 100X worse:

[Grizzled]

In 2021, the Dolphins held the #3 pick but had Tua. SF came calling with their #12 pick and 2 future 1st rounds. Through wheeling and dealing, the Dolphins ended up with Jaylen Waddle (+ 1000 yards his first 2 seasons)and Jaelen Phillips (15.5 sacks since drafted). They also parlayed one of the picks into the trade with the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill. The Bears are sitting in a better draft position. There are 2 very highly desired QBs (Young and Stroud), one who some are calling Josh Allen 2.0 (Levis), and one who is still raw but is in the mold of the modern mobile QB (Richardson). The hype machine is starting to gin up. QB hungry teams will just get more desperate as the draft draws closer. Poles has the opportunity to accumulate additional draft picks this year but also possibly next and, if someon'es desperate enough, the year after that. He has the possibility of adding veteran players at key positions (WR, DL) depending on whom the Bears trade with. Poles just needs to sit back now and let the game come to him.

[bearsoldier]

I really do think the Colt's make a trade with us. Moving down to #4 feels like the right move and would be fine with it by gaining their #35 along with a player or additional picks. Maybe add their 2nd or 3rd Rd next year along with a few late rd picks this year or next.

[duckherd50]

I think Poles needs to trade with Houston and get maybe their 12 and 2nd and whatever else. Then, trade 2 to the Colts or whoever wants to move in front of the Colts. We get a haul from the Colts as well.

Now, financially speaking, that would be difficult to manage long term if hit on all those first and second round draft picks. So, may not be a bad idea to try to turn some of the acquired picks (and obviously keeping some of the desired picks) for players of high quality and even luxury as we still have enough future resources to start to continually increase yearly. So, maybe a 3rd for Hopkins or M. Thomas or something along those lines.

I also think Poles may have that "why is he overpaying for that guy" moment in free agency. I think this will be because the FA crop is not great this year and the draft is not overly good this year either. So, he will want to get who he wants to get.

[dplank]

In 2021, the Dolphins held the #3 pick but had Tua. SF came calling with their #12 pick and 2 future 1st rounds. Through wheeling and dealing, the Dolphins ended up with Jaylen Waddle (+ 1000 yards his first 2 seasons)and Jaelen Phillips (15.5 sacks since drafted). They also parlayed one of the picks into the trade with the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill. The Bears are sitting in a better draft position. There are 2 very highly desired QBs (Young and Stroud), one who some are calling Josh Allen 2.0 (Levis), and one who is still raw but is in the mold of the modern mobile QB (Richardson). The hype machine is starting to gin up. QB hungry teams will just get more desperate as the draft draws closer. Poles has the opportunity to accumulate additional draft picks this year but also possibly next and, if someon'es desperate enough, the year after that. He has the possibility of adding veteran players at key positions (WR, DL) depending on whom the Bears trade with. Poles just needs to sit back now and let the game come to him.

Hype machine comment is on point. Poles needs to stay patient and let teams fall in love with one of these guys, then gouge them. It fits the style we’ve seen from Poles thus far, so I expect him to play this correctly. If anyone tries to get the pick from us early in the offseason, they will have to blow us away with a package.

[Moriarty]

I also think Poles may have that "why is he overpaying for that guy" moment in free agency. I think this will be because the FA crop is not great this year and the draft is not overly good this year either. So, he will want to get who he wants to get.

That's why I've been saying "Hey, maybe it makes sense to do some frontloading, do what you've gotta do to meet that minimum spend, and roll a good chunk to next year."

[dplank]

Value hawks will be disappointed, I hope

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I think Poles needs to trade with Houston and get maybe their 12 and 2nd and whatever else. Then, trade 2 to the Colts or whoever wants to move in front of the Colts. We get a haul from the Colts as well.

If Houston trade "their 12 and 2nd and whatever else" to move up from 2 to 1 then Nick Caserio should be fired on the spot. That's just insane.

If the Bears trade down to 2 then other teams may be much less interested in trading with them for that spot prior to the draft. They may have already lost their first choice QB to the Texans and won't expect the Bears or the Cardinals to take a QB. It would be prudent for them to hold fire until the draft to see who Houston selects. They may decide it's not worth trading up at that point.

It's been reported that the Seahawks (5) are expected to retain Smith and the Lions (6) got good play from Goff so neither are desperate for a QB in this draft.

The Raiders (7) seem likely to go after either Brady or Garoppolo in free agency.

Atlanta (8) picked up Ridder in the third round last year and he wasn't a disaster when he played the final 4 games completing 73/115 passes (63.5%), 708 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 86.4 passer rating. He actually did better in each game in played (with ratings of 59.3, 85.2, 90.1 and 108.2) and they won the last two. They could decide to stay with their pick and if a QB doesn't fall to them then focus on developing Ridder next season with the option to go for a QB in 2024 if he doesn't work out.

The Panthers (9) could conceivably stick with Darnold. They won 4 of their last 6 with him starting and he had a passer rating of 100+ in 4 of those 6 games including in the 2 defeats.

The Eagles (10) obviously don't need a QB.

If 2024 is supposed to be a strong year for QBs, the market for one this year may not be as high as people tend to think. The Colts (4) appear to be the most obvious trade partners. They don't have much draft capital to offer this year though (one pick in each round at best) and not much next year either.

As exciting as the prospect of trading down for a boatload of Day One and Day Two picks is I think we should temper our expectations somewhat.

[RichH55]

I think Poles needs to trade with Houston and get maybe their 12 and 2nd and whatever else. Then, trade 2 to the Colts or whoever wants to move in front of the Colts. We get a haul from the Colts as well.

If Houston trade "their 12 and 2nd and whatever else" to move up from 2 to 1 then Nick Caserio should be fired on the spot. That's just insane.

If the Bears trade down to 2 then other teams may be much less interested in trading with them for that spot prior to the draft. They may have already lost their first choice QB to the Texans and won't expect the Bears or the Cardinals to take a QB. It would be prudent for them to hold fire until the draft to see who Houston selects. They may decide it's not worth trading up at that point.

It's been reported that the Seahawks (5) are expected to retain Smith and the Lions (6) got good play from Goff so neither are desperate for a QB in this draft.

The Raiders (7) seem likely to go after either Brady or Garoppolo in free agency.

Atlanta (8) picked up Ridder in the third round last year and he wasn't a disaster when he played the final 4 games completing 73/115 passes (63.5%), 708 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 86.4 passer rating. He actually did better in each game in played (with ratings of 59.3, 85.2, 90.1 and 108.2) and they won the last two. They could decide to stay with their pick and if a QB doesn't fall to them then focus on developing Ridder next season with the option to go for a QB in 2024 if he doesn't work out.

The Panthers (9) could conceivably stick with Darnold. They won 4 of their last 6 with him starting and he had a passer rating of 100+ in 4 of those 6 games including in the 2 defeats.

The Eagles (10) obviously don't need a QB.

If 2024 is supposed to be a strong year for QBs, the market for one this year may not be as high as people tend to think. The Colts (4) appear to be the most obvious trade partners. They don't have much draft capital to offer this year though (one pick in each round at best) and not much next year either.

As exciting as the prospect of trading down for a boatload of Day One and Day Two picks is I think we should temper our expectations somewhat.

I think the Texans will want to move up. If they like one of the QBs better than the other.

[otis]

I also think Poles may have that "why is he overpaying for that guy" moment in free agency. I think this will be because the FA crop is not great this year and the draft is not overly good this year either. So, he will want to get who he wants to get.

That's why I've been saying "Hey, maybe it makes sense to do some frontloading, do what you've gotta do to meet that minimum spend, and roll a good chunk to next year."

i've thought that too. pay a big chunk up front, when you have it, and then they are a sustainable cap hit for the next five years. and you get to keep them, instead of cutting them, like mack.

[Grizzled]

In 2021, the Dolphins held the #3 pick but had Tua. SF came calling with their #12 pick and 2 future 1st rounds. Through wheeling and dealing, the Dolphins ended up with Jaylen Waddle (+ 1000 yards his first 2 seasons)and Jaelen Phillips (15.5 sacks since drafted). They also parlayed one of the picks into the trade with the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill. The Bears are sitting in a better draft position. There are 2 very highly desired QBs (Young and Stroud), one who some are calling Josh Allen 2.0 (Levis), and one who is still raw but is in the mold of the modern mobile QB (Richardson). The hype machine is starting to gin up. QB hungry teams will just get more desperate as the draft draws closer. Poles has the opportunity to accumulate additional draft picks this year but also possibly next and, if someon'es desperate enough, the year after that. He has the possibility of adding veteran players at key positions (WR, DL) depending on whom the Bears trade with. Poles just needs to sit back now and let the game come to him.

Hype machine comment is on point. Poles needs to stay patient and let teams fall in love with one of these guys, then gouge them. It fits the style we’ve seen from Poles thus far, so I expect him to play this correctly. If anyone tries to get the pick from us early in the offseason, they will have to blow us away with a package.

I agree. If someone comes to the Bears with a trade package which includes 1st rounders in '24 and '25, it would have to be considered even if made early in the cycle. But if they throw in a vet who would really help the team in addition, 2nd/3rd round picks, etc. (let's be pie-in-the-sky here), dial it in as long as the Bears don't drop out of the top 10. By staying at least that high, the top OL, some danged good DTs and DEs, and possibly Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU, might still be available.

[karhu]

I also think Poles may have that "why is he overpaying for that guy" moment in free agency. I think this will be because the FA crop is not great this year and the draft is not overly good this year either. So, he will want to get who he wants to get.

That's why I've been saying "Hey, maybe it makes sense to do some frontloading, do what you've gotta do to meet that minimum spend, and roll a good chunk to next year."

Yep. No need to act like a kid on vacation, spending all your pocket money at the first gift shop (or gas station) you see. Not all GMs have the self-discipline to remember that the on-field value of a given FA doesn't change just because you've got a lot of cap room to spend. If we've got $150 million worth of space, and there are $30 million worth of FAs who'll honestly help move this thing forward, Poles should spend the $30 million and carry the rest into 2024. And it wouldn't hurt if we as fans acknowledged that that's what he's doing.

[thunderspirit]

The Texans may perhaps want to move up, as may the Colts. But I have serious doubts anyone is all that interested in Bryce Young at the top of the draft.

I'd bet a mortgage payment that Indy's Chris Ballard won't be — the next time he bets big high in a draft on an outlier prospect like Young will be the first time. It is nigh impossible to think Ballard is wiling to stake his entire career on that level out outlier. (Ballard has signed, drafted, or traded for 14 different QBs since taking over as Colts GM in 2017. Only one has been less than 6-1: Phillip Walker, UDFA in 2017. None have been less than 210 lbs. Young is both.)

Nick Casserio in Houston is a little more of a wild card, and has considerably less track record on which to draw. He's shown a bit more willingness to deviate from the norm than Ballard, but the sample size is small.

So any trade activity, in my view, is likely to have to be two teams bidding for the same guy. That's certainly possible, but hard to bet on.