Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[dplank]

The Texans may perhaps want to move up, as may the Colts. But I have serious doubts anyone is all that interested in Bryce Young at the top of the draft.

I'd bet a mortgage payment that Indy's Chris Ballard won't be — the next time he bets big high in a draft on an outlier prospect like Young will be the first time. It is nigh impossible to think Ballard is wiling to stake his entire career on that level out outlier. (Ballard has signed, drafted, or traded for 14 different QBs since taking over as Colts GM in 2017. Only one has been less than 6-1: Phillip Walker, UDFA in 2017. None have been less than 210 lbs. Young is both.)

Nick Casserio in Houston is a little more of a wild card, and has considerably less track record on which to draw. He's shown a bit more willingness to deviate from the norm than Ballard, but the sample size is small.

So any trade activity, in my view, is likely to have to be two teams bidding for the same guy. That's certainly possible, but hard to bet on.

I suggest waiting for the pro day and the off season hype machine to get rolling. It may not even be Young (although it likely is him), but QB needy teams will fall in love with at least one of these QBs. We should hold firm for our asking price. Will Anderson is a fine consolation prize.

[Mikefive]

Another possibility to consider with trade partners.... If throwing in their #2 is a bit too rich for them (along with the rest of the haul), we can swap #2s with about anybody and be better off.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Another possibility to consider with trade partners.... If throwing in their #2 is a bit too rich for them (along with the rest of the haul), we can swap #2s with about anybody and be better off.

Good job Baltimore lost, it means at least 10 teams are below us in the 2nd round and it’ll be 11 if Tampa win tonight.

[wab]

The Texans may perhaps want to move up, as may the Colts. But I have serious doubts anyone is all that interested in Bryce Young at the top of the draft.

I'd bet a mortgage payment that Indy's Chris Ballard won't be — the next time he bets big high in a draft on an outlier prospect like Young will be the first time. It is nigh impossible to think Ballard is wiling to stake his entire career on that level out outlier. (Ballard has signed, drafted, or traded for 14 different QBs since taking over as Colts GM in 2017. Only one has been less than 6-1: Phillip Walker, UDFA in 2017. None have been less than 210 lbs. Young is both.)

Nick Casserio in Houston is a little more of a wild card, and has considerably less track record on which to draw. He's shown a bit more willingness to deviate from the norm than Ballard, but the sample size is small.

So any trade activity, in my view, is likely to have to be two teams bidding for the same guy. That's certainly possible, but hard to bet on.

Young's stature is why I think the Will Levis Hype Train is about to hit the NOS switch.

[thunderspirit]

Young's stature is why I think the Will Levis Hype Train is about to hit the NOS switch.

It's possible. I personally don't see it in a guy who looks the same as he did in 2021 and at Penn State, and will be a 24yr old rookie. But stranger things have happened.

[wab]

Oh, I don't think Levis will overtake Young, but I think they hype will ramp up exponentially.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Oh, I don't think Levis will overtake Young, but I think they hype will ramp up exponentially.

It happens almost every year. One QB gets promoted above anyone else, and rises to the top of the draft board for no logical reason. Personally I think Trey Lance should have been a 2nd round pick, but everyone fell in love with his arm strength, and here we are. I think the same thing happens with Levis. He'll go to the combine, show off his arm and size, and scouts will fall in love with him. Given our attention span and news cycle is about five minutes, everyone will forget the bad interceptions and the questionable decision making from the previous season. Levis should go toward the end of the first round, but I'll bet he goes #2. Which is fantastic for the Bears.

[wab]

Oh, I don't think Levis will overtake Young, but I think they hype will ramp up exponentially.

It happens almost every year. One QB gets promoted above anyone else, and rises to the top of the draft board for no logical reason. Personally I think Trey Lance should have been a 2nd round pick, but everyone fell in love with his arm strength, and here we are. I think the same thing happens with Levis. He'll go to the combine, show off his arm and size, and scouts will fall in love with him. Given our attention span and news cycle is about five minutes, everyone will forget the bad interceptions and the questionable decision making from the previous season. Levis should go toward the end of the first round, but I'll bet he goes #2. Which is fantastic for the Bears.

The combine is going to be super interesting this year. If Young really does check in T 5'9 like some say, people are really going to have to love a lot of other things about him. If the dude was 6'3, I do believe he'd be considered generational.

[RichH55]

It happens almost every year. One QB gets promoted above anyone else, and rises to the top of the draft board for no logical reason. Personally I think Trey Lance should have been a 2nd round pick, but everyone fell in love with his arm strength, and here we are. I think the same thing happens with Levis. He'll go to the combine, show off his arm and size, and scouts will fall in love with him. Given our attention span and news cycle is about five minutes, everyone will forget the bad interceptions and the questionable decision making from the previous season. Levis should go toward the end of the first round, but I'll bet he goes #2. Which is fantastic for the Bears.

The combine is going to be super interesting this year. If Young really does check in T 5'9 like some say, people are really going to have to love a lot of other things about him. If the dude was 6'3, I do believe he'd be considered generational.

This is possible - maybe even probable.

I think they hype stuff would happen on other guys anyway - because once the Super Bowl ends - its draft talk time. And if a guy is locked in at #1 for 3 months and there is no controversy/debate?

Thats just bad TV. There is a reason people "tried" to have a Manning/Leaf debate

[Arkansasbear]

It happens almost every year. One QB gets promoted above anyone else, and rises to the top of the draft board for no logical reason. Personally I think Trey Lance should have been a 2nd round pick, but everyone fell in love with his arm strength, and here we are. I think the same thing happens with Levis. He'll go to the combine, show off his arm and size, and scouts will fall in love with him. Given our attention span and news cycle is about five minutes, everyone will forget the bad interceptions and the questionable decision making from the previous season. Levis should go toward the end of the first round, but I'll bet he goes #2. Which is fantastic for the Bears.

The combine is going to be super interesting this year. If Young really does check in T 5'9 like some say, people are really going to have to love a lot of other things about him. If the dude was 6'3, I do believe he'd be considered generational.

If Young is in 5'8" or below, I think Levis will overtake him. If Young is 5'11" or below I'm not sure. If he crack 6' I think he will hold off Levis.

[IE]

The combine is going to be super interesting this year. If Young really does check in T 5'9 like some say, people are really going to have to love a lot of other things about him. If the dude was 6'3, I do believe he'd be considered generational.

If Young is in 5'8" or below, I think Levis will overtake him. If Young is 5'11" or below I'm not sure. If he crack 6' I think he will hold off Levis.

He better get some inversion boots and spend most of his time hanging upside down for the week before they measure him. The vast majority of these guys are shorter than advertised, skewed toward exaggeration on the shorter side for obvious reasons. If you're 6'2" you just say you're that height not 6'3". But if you see varying claims for a guy near or under 6 foot ... he's likely well under.

[crueltyabc]

I don't always agree with Leming's takes but I appreciate the grunt work he put in to write this piece:

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears ... 03281615_1

[RichH55]

I don't always agree with Leming's takes but I appreciate the grunt work he put in to write this piece:

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears ... 03281615_1

Good find - thanks

[crueltyabc]

The draftniks have me convinced that Will Anderson and Jalen Carter are the only blue-chippers at premium positions (Anderson and Carter) so I think there's a big difference between 4 and 5, but not much difference between 5 and 9 so it starts being about what the teams are offering. That will probably change once I watch tape and decide that I love Paris Johnson or whatever, but for now I'm saying Colts and Panthers are most likely to be the attractive packages. Colts because we get a Anderson or Carter this year, and Panthers because it would be a boat load of picks.

[Heinz D.]

Oh, I don't think Levis will overtake Young, but I think they hype will ramp up exponentially.

There is a decent chance Levis will overtake Young. Same with Stroud.

The draftniks have me convinced that Will Anderson and Jalen Carter are the only blue-chippers at premium positions (Anderson and Carter) so I think there's a big difference between 4 and 5, but not much difference between 5 and 9 so it starts being about what the teams are offering. That will probably change once I watch tape and decide that I love Paris Johnson or whatever, but for now I'm saying Colts and Panthers are most likely to be the attractive packages. Colts because we get a Anderson or Carter this year, and Panthers because it would be a boat load of picks.

There's a few guys I've seen that actually like Murphy a little better than Anderson. A couple others think they're REAL close.

For what that's worth...

[Rusty Trombagent]

PFF didnt like this, but i think a scenario like this has a lot of potential.

[The Cooler King]

????

[Rusty Trombagent]

yeah, someone sent it to me, i had no idea where it was from. felt relevant though.

[EricTighe]

Sign me up! Even though I might stay with Kmet with those other studs on the team.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He’s going to have approximately 0.2 seconds to throw them the ball unless you get him some linemen in FA.
Also he’s going to be get in the ball after kick off every time because we have no defense either

[Rusty Trombagent]

fuck that sounds like some exciting football. i'm in.

[Grizzled]

Here are the last 3 times teams have traded up for the #1 pick:

2016: Titans get 1:16, 2 Second Rnd picks, 3rd pick, 2017 1st and 3rd Rnd picks; Rams get 1:1 (Jared Goff)
2004: Chargers get 1:4, 3rd Rnd pick, 2005 1st and 5th Rnd picks; Giants get 1:1 (Eli Manning)
2001: Chargers get 1:5, 3rd Rnd pick 2002, 2003 2nd Rnd pick; Falcons get 1:1 (Michael Vick)

Here are 3 times teams have traded into the top 3 for a QB:

2021: Dolphins get 1:12, 2022 1st and 3rd Rnd picks, 2023 1st Rnd pick; 49ers get 1:3 (Trey Lance)
2018: Colts get 1:6, 2 2018 2nd Rnd picks, 2019 2nd Rnd pick; Jets get 1:3 (Sam Donald)
2017: 49ers get 1:3, 3rd and 4th Rnd picks, 2018 3rd Rnd pick; Bears get 1:2 (Mitch Trubisky)

2 general observations. The price for moving up to #1 has ramped up. The Bears should get a haul similar to but better than what the Chargers got in 2004. No way the other trades for #1 get made today. As for trades into the top 3, the Dolphins made out like bandits and have turned their haul into Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill among others. The jury's still out on Lance but it's not looking good for any of the 3 QBs that teams traded for.

I've seen the Bears getting the Colts 1st and 2nds in 2023 and 2024 (1:4, 2:35). Throw in Buckner. If Anderson is still available at #4, grab him. If not, see if the Loins, Raiders, Falcons, or Panthers want to make a deal and select OT or one of the other DEs (Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson).

[dplank]

There’s just so many possibilities, we really need to cash in. I’d be thrilled with that haul.

[The Cooler King]

Here are the last 3 times teams have traded up for the #1 pick:

2016: Titans get 1:16, 2 Second Rnd picks, 3rd pick, 2017 1st and 3rd Rnd picks; Rams get 1:1 (Jared Goff)
2004: Chargers get 1:4, 3rd Rnd pick, 2005 1st and 5th Rnd picks; Giants get 1:1 (Eli Manning)
2001: Chargers get 1:5, 3rd Rnd pick 2002, 2003 2nd Rnd pick; Falcons get 1:1 (Michael Vick)

Here are 3 times teams have traded into the top 3 for a QB:

2021: Dolphins get 1:12, 2022 1st and 3rd Rnd picks, 2023 1st Rnd pick; 49ers get 1:3 (Trey Lance)
2018: Colts get 1:6, 2 2018 2nd Rnd picks, 2019 2nd Rnd pick; Jets get 1:3 (Sam Donald)
2017: 49ers get 1:3, 3rd and 4th Rnd picks, 2018 3rd Rnd pick; Bears get 1:2 (Mitch Trubisky)

2 general observations. The price for moving up to #1 has ramped up. The Bears should get a haul similar to but better than what the Chargers got in 2004. No way the other trades for #1 get made today. As for trades into the top 3, the Dolphins made out like bandits and have turned their haul into Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill among others. The jury's still out on Lance but it's not looking good for any of the 3 QBs that teams traded for.

I've seen the Bears getting the Colts 1st and 2nds in 2023 and 2024 (1:4, 2:35). Throw in Buckner. If Anderson is still available at #4, grab him. If not, see if the Loins, Raiders, Falcons, or Panthers want to make a deal and select OT or one of the other DEs (Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson).

Good research.

I can say with pretty much complete confidence that the change from 2004/2001 deals is the implementation of the rookie wage scale (2011). Before then you were handing the 1.1 a contract commensurate with any good veteran deal. That capped rookie scale was just a huge change in multiple ways to the rookie landscape.

[bearsoldier]

It would be nice to gain all the immediate draft picks speculated in the Bears and Seahawks trade in the following article from SI.

We have multiple needs and would rather gain picks this year for the rebuild. This would put us in a better position to gain DE, DT, WR, OL, LB help we need for the upcoming season.

..."Bears give Seahawks No. 1 while Bears get No. 5 in Round 1, No. 20 in Round 1, then No. 37 in Round 2 and No. 83 in Round 3."

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/findi ... bears-pick

[dplank]

That would give us 5 picks in the top 83 - very nice. May miss on both Carter and Anderson

[The Marshall Plan]

That would give us 5 picks in the top 83 - very nice. May miss on both Carter and Anderson

But not Murphy and he's a stud.

I'd make that trade for sure.

[The Marshall Plan]

You're Ryan Poles and your phone is ringing off the hook.

Teams are offering various packages of picks and players for the #1 overall.

Now while there's a balancing act in terms of the further back you go the more quantity you should get back in return, how far back do you go should be part of the consideration because it takes us out of the range of certain players.

Then, also answer, who do you want to draft with that very first pick after the trade down? So say you vote 11 to 15, who are you drafting there?

The link is the draft order.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft ... nfl-season

[Moriarty]

Is the question

"What's my ideal range to trade to" (assuming all offers are appropriately balanced for distance dropping down)
or
"What's the lowest realistic trade down I'd be willing to seriously consider"




The former is 4-7.
But I'd be willing to consider all the way down to 20ish, if the teams down there are seriously ponying up.

[bearsoldier]

That would give us 5 picks in the top 83 - very nice. May miss on both Carter and Anderson

Yes, that is the big risk but even then, I think we maybe go with Myles Murphy at 5 and take Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 20? idk, JSN too high at 20??