Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[Grizzled]

Obviously there are going to be a megaflood of trade ideas floated for the Bears pick before the draft take place. The floodgates have already opened, I thought one central thread on this might be fun:

1:1 for Colts 1:4 , Buckner, and Quentin Nelson
1:1 for Texans 1:2 and 1:12; trade 1:2 for additional picks to a QB hungry team
1:1 for Texans 1:2, Brandin Cooks, additional picks; 1:2 for Colts 1:4, Buckner, 2:4 (#36), 2023 2nd rounder, anything else Bears can get
1:1 for Texans 1:2, 1:12, any additional picks; 1:2 for Lions 1:6, 1:17, any additional picks
1:1 for Colts 1:4, Michael Pittman, 2:4 (#36), 4:4, 2024 1st and 2nd round picks, 2025 1st round pick
1:1 for Texans 1:2 and 1:12; 1:2 for Raiders 1:7 and Davante Adams
1:1. for Raiders 1:7, Davante Adams, and 2024 1st round pick
1:1 for Texans 1:2, 3:2 (#65), 4:2 (103) and 2024 2nd round pick (this is most like the Bears-SF trade which netted Mitch)
1:1 for Lions 1:6, 1:17, 3rd round pick (47), 2024 2nd and 3rd round picks
1:1 for Panthers 1:9, 2 2nd round picks (#39 and #60), 2024 1st, 3rd, and 6th round picks

[RichH55]

Don't forget a Panthers trade version where we get Burns

[Grizzled]

There's also:

1:1 for Titans 1:10 and Jeffrey Simmons

[cars]

The Panthers really have probably the best straight deal for us for this year and potentially next. Especially with the SF picks they have extra.

I would not expect Buckner or Adams or Nelson to be part of any trade. Indy, for example, would have to take an additional $18m cap hit to move on from Nelson at this point. Buckner is in the last year of his deal.

They're going to focus on picks picks picks.

[wab]

Buckner absolutely makes sense as part of a trade package. Nelson not so much.

The Colts could be looking to get out from under the Leonard contract too. He has a 12mil guaranteed in 2023 (the last of his guaranteed money) and it's entirely possible that the Colts would prefer to not pay that.

Colts send the #4, Buckner, Leonard, and next year's 1st round pick for the #1. I'd do that 10 out of 10 times. Draft one of Anderson/Wilson/Murphy at 4 and your defense is fixed.

[Moriarty]

Arizona is at 3 and I see no way they don't take Anderson at 3 (even if they traded up, which seems doubtful). There's a small chance they trade down to someone wanting a QB or something besides Anderson, but not very likely, IMO.


So, if you really want Anderson, all you can do is Stay or trade down 1 with Houston.
Trading down 1 - even 1 to 2 - is very low difference (the 3, 4, future 3 involving Mitchy is very accurate), so keep your expectations in your pants, if this is the route you want.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp


If you're willing to miss out on Anderson and trade with anyone - then the options open up - Indy (4), Vegas (7), ATL (8), Car (9), Jets (13), Wash (16) are all pretty QB hungry.



Indy (4) is a really fun option. If Arizona does trade out to a QB team, then you have first choice of any non-QB player you want. Or, if someone takes a non-QB in the first 3 picks, then a QB is still on the board and you can maybe pull off another trade.

[cars]

We are way more than a Will Anderson away from winning. My statement has been we are 5 guys away from being 1 guy away. To me just staying pat doesn't do it for us. We have about 12 spots of upgrades needed on offense and defense.

[The Cooler King]

Arizona is at 3 and I see no way they don't take Anderson at 3 (even if they traded up, which seems doubtful). There's a small chance they trade down to someone wanting a QB or something besides Anderson, but not very likely, IMO.


So, if you really want Anderson, all you can do is Stay or trade down 1 with Houston.
Trading down 1 - even 1 to 2 - is very low difference (the 3, 4, future 3 involving Mitchy is very accurate), so keep your expectations in your pants, if this is the route you want.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp


If you're willing to miss out on Anderson and trade with anyone - then the options open up - Indy (4), Vegas (7), ATL (8), Car (9), Jets (13), Wash (16) are all pretty QB hungry.



Indy (4) is a really fun option. If Arizona does trade out to a QB team, then you have first choice of any non-QB player you want. Or, if someone takes a non-QB in the first 3 picks, then a QB is still on the board and you can maybe pull off another trade.

Well said. While I'm still gonna be reading up more about these guys, I like the 1-2 swap idea if Houston falls in love with a guy. If you can get a version of the Trubisky trade (3 3rds say) that's real tempting to sit still and take Anderson and get 3 extra intersting swings in the draft. Sure no future FRP or anything, but you keep Anderson.

More I read up on guys I'll probably convince myself the drop is small and to try and get that extra FRP even at the cost of him.

[wulfy]

Chris Ballard said today:

Asked if there is a QB at the top of the draft they want, would he give up heaven and earth to trade up and get him?
Ballard: "Yes, I'd do whatever it takes."

for context, Zak covers the Colts for The Athletic and WISH TV in Indianapolis

[Mikefive]

Buckner absolutely makes sense as part of a trade package. Nelson not so much.

The Colts could be looking to get out from under the Leonard contract too. He has a 12mil guaranteed in 2023 (the last of his guaranteed money) and it's entirely possible that the Colts would prefer to not pay that.

Colts send the #4, Buckner, Leonard, and next year's 1st round pick for the #1. I'd do that 10 out of 10 times. Draft one of Anderson/Wilson/Murphy at 4 and your defense is fixed.

Yup. The Colts are a real possibility. And if we stay at 4 (which I probably wouldn't do if I had another good trade down option) you'd also end up with either Anderson or Carter as an available option. That's an attractive option.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Buckner absolutely makes sense as part of a trade package. Nelson not so much.

The Colts could be looking to get out from under the Leonard contract too. He has a 12mil guaranteed in 2023 (the last of his guaranteed money) and it's entirely possible that the Colts would prefer to not pay that.

Colts send the #4, Buckner, Leonard, and next year's 1st round pick for the #1. I'd do that 10 out of 10 times. Draft one of Anderson/Wilson/Murphy at 4 and your defense is fixed.

The Colts have $18M in cap space next year. Getting out of both of those contracts saves them another $30M. If I were Poles I would flip the 4th pick into 3-4 other picks later in the first and a few in the 2nd and 3rd.

[wab]

I think an interesting question is...what player would you prefer in a trade down?

Colts - Buckner?
Cards - Hopkins?
Raiders - Adams?
Panthers - Burns?

[The Cooler King]

Panthers: DJ Moore

[Rusty Trombagent]

24 year old Burns for sure (if viewed purely through the lens of the player, and not the other compensation). I'm just not as high on a 30 year old Buckner as some here. San Fran felt they could easily move on from him and they did.

[Grizzled]

Buckner's signed for 2, not 1 more year. Not sure about Hopkins nor Michael Thomas of the Saints unless their contracts are significantly restructured.

[wab]

Buckner's signed for 2, not 1 more year. Not sure about Hopkins nor Michael Thomas of the Saints unless their contracts are significantly restructured.

There’s no more guaranteed money on Buckner’s deal though.

[The Cooler King]

Buckner's signed for 2, not 1 more year. Not sure about Hopkins nor Michael Thomas of the Saints unless their contracts are significantly restructured.

Thomas is definitely being cut. They just restructured his contract so it's easier to June 1 him.

[RichH55]

Buckner's signed for 2, not 1 more year. Not sure about Hopkins nor Michael Thomas of the Saints unless their contracts are significantly restructured.

Thomas is definitely being cut. They just restructured his contract so it's easier to June 1 him.

Yep. That restructure was all to cut him - and lets him hit FA a bit early

[dplank]

I don’t want Thomas, the guy hasn’t played good football in years.

If we could get Hopkins tho - IN

[Grizzled]

Buckner's signed for 2, not 1 more year. Not sure about Hopkins nor Michael Thomas of the Saints unless their contracts are significantly restructured.

There’s no more guaranteed money on Buckner’s deal though.

Even better.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Who’s available in free agency will influence my answer.

On that basis I think my answer is Buckner.
Buckner comes with the number 4 pick, I don’t think the Cards will give us Hopkins and 3 for #1

Raiders and Panthers are going to have to give up a shed load for #1 as they are too low in the draft.

[wulfy]

I don’t want Thomas, the guy hasn’t played good football in years.

If we could get Hopkins tho - IN

Cardinals said today they are trading Hopkins. Great player ... but he'll be 31 when the season starts.

What about Claypool for Hopkins?? Young, Cheap, Bad (kidding, kidding, I think) for Old, Expensive, Good

Michael Thomas is done.

[dplank]

I don’t want Thomas, the guy hasn’t played good football in years.

If we could get Hopkins tho - IN

Cardinals said today they are trading Hopkins. Great player ... but he'll be 31 when the season starts.

What about Claypool for Hopkins?? Young, Cheap, Bad (kidding, kidding, I think) for Old, Expensive, Good

Michael Thomas is done.

31 doesn’t scare me honestly, he should have 4 good years left and only has 2 left on his contract anyways. Claypool for Hopkins would be a great deal for us.

[The Cooler King]

31with two years left doesn't bother me, but that he wants a new deal is the biggest potential hangup. If he's just trying to secure a little career downside insurance, okay. If he's looking to reup back at 20/M with new guarantees, no.

So I'd offer like 4/54 with 27 guaranteed. Locks in 2023 and half of 2024 base (maybe even full for injury and half for skill). Then tacks on 2/20 for his age 33/34, unguaranteed. Gets him a little insurance policy now. Fair?

[Yogi da Bear]

1:1 for Colts 1:4, Michael Pittman, 2:4 (#36), 4:4, 2024 1st and 2nd round picks, 2025 1st round pick

This is the one I love. A low end #1 receiver still on his rookie deal. Three firsts, two seconds, and a fourth. I'd take this in a heartbeat.

[The Cooler King]

1:1 for Colts 1:4, Michael Pittman, 2:4 (#36), 4:4, 2024 1st and 2nd round picks, 2025 1st round pick

This is the one I love. A low end #1 receiver still on his rookie deal. Three firsts, two seconds, and a fourth. I'd take this in a heartbeat.

Not sure if he's really a low end #1. He's very much borderline for me. Though like with Mooney, his y3 decline may have a lot to do with external circumstances of the offense.

Claypool was in some ways a little bit of a early run at a new WR. I want the next vet trade target (if there is one) to be a no doubter.

[Heinz D.]

I think an interesting question is...what player would you prefer in a trade down?

Colts - Buckner?
Cards - Hopkins?
Raiders - Adams?
Panthers - Burns?

As a general observation...if Poles uses some of this massive draft capital to acquire guys in their thirties, he's either inept, or insane. Maybe both. Poles needs more draft picks, big time. If he fails to draft the right guys, we'll move on from him...

[Heinz D.]

If you're willing to miss out on Anderson and trade with anyone - then the options open up - Indy (4), Vegas (7), ATL (8), Car (9), Jets (13), Wash (16) are all pretty QB hungry.

We all need to become comfortable with the notion that Anderson or Carter may simply NOT be happening for the Bears. Poles may not be willing to hold onto a pick that high when he could use it to fill more than one hole...

[Yogi da Bear]

Y3 decline?

40 for 503 and one score. 66 catch %, 22 FDs
88 for 1082 and 6 scores. 68 catch%, 54 FDs
99 for 952 and 4 scores. 70 catch%, 51 FDs.

Slight decline this year in yards, scores, and FDs, but increases in receptions and catch %. All with three different QBs throwing to him.

[Yogi da Bear]

If you're willing to miss out on Anderson and trade with anyone - then the options open up - Indy (4), Vegas (7), ATL (8), Car (9), Jets (13), Wash (16) are all pretty QB hungry.

We all need to become comfortable with the notion that Anderson or Carter may simply NOT be happening for the Bears. Poles may not be willing to hold onto a pick that high when he could use it to fill more than one hole...

Don't want Carter. I can't even imagine him in Eflus' Hits system. He wouldn't even make it through training camp. And I question Anderson's size, his ability to be a full time DE in a 4-3.