Ravens and Lamar Jackson Contract Talks

[duckherd50]

By letting go of Greg Roman for some reason are the Ravens moving on from L Jackson? Seems like with his contract status up in the air that the Ravens are moving on.....

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Harbaugh said there’s a “100%, no 200% chance” that Lamar will be the Ravens QB next season

[pus]

Harbaugh said there’s a “100%, no 200% chance” that Lamar will be the Ravens QB next season

Most folks don't know he minored in quantum math.

[wulfy]

$32,416,000 is the Franchise Tag number for QB.

Ravens only have $26MM in cap space, they are going to need to make some room.

[wab]

A hundred million is a lot of millions.

[southdakbearfan]

Could possibly be = we don’t know but it’s somewhere between 0-100 million.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

It’s certainly “possible”.

[Atkins&Rebel]

I do wonder if The Ravens really want him back. When I look at Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, those guys both started out shaky, relied on their feet more than average early in their careers. But both progressed their passing game to become complete QB's with real dual threat ability.

Lamar, still relies on his feet more than average, and has progressed some in his passing ability, but not where I'd want to give him a franchise crippling contract.

This is where I'm at with Fields going forward. If we see him progress like Josh and Jalen, then yes he's worth that contract. But if he's still struggling to read defenses, throws too many bone head INTs and runs more than passes, then it's too hard to build a championship team around that style of play.

[dplank]

I do wonder if The Ravens really want him back. When I look at Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, those guys both started out shaky, relied on their feet more than average early in their careers. But both progressed their passing game to become complete QB's with real dual threat ability.

Lamar, still relies on his feet more than average, and has progressed some in his passing ability, but not where I'd want to give him a franchise crippling contract.

This is where I'm at with Fields going forward. If we see him progress like Josh and Jalen, then yes he's worth that contract. But if he's still struggling to read defenses, throws too many bone head INTs and runs more than passes, then it's too hard to build a championship team around that style of play.

Jalen Hurts wasn’t a great passer until the Eagles surrounded him with Brown, Smith, and Goedert

Josh Allen wasn’t a great passer until they surrounded him with Gabe Davis and Diggs.

Lamar Jackson has Mark Andrews and …….

Fields has ……

I get your point here but in order to expect an equal outcome from Fields or Jackson, you need to create equal circumstances for them to operate under. If you don’t do that, then you must adjust your expectations accordingly.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He’ll stay in Baltimore

[Atkins&Rebel]

I do wonder if The Ravens really want him back. When I look at Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, those guys both started out shaky, relied on their feet more than average early in their careers. But both progressed their passing game to become complete QB's with real dual threat ability.

Lamar, still relies on his feet more than average, and has progressed some in his passing ability, but not where I'd want to give him a franchise crippling contract.

This is where I'm at with Fields going forward. If we see him progress like Josh and Jalen, then yes he's worth that contract. But if he's still struggling to read defenses, throws too many bone head INTs and runs more than passes, then it's too hard to build a championship team around that style of play.

Jalen Hurts wasn’t a great passer until the Eagles surrounded him with Brown, Smith, and Goedert

Josh Allen wasn’t a great passer until they surrounded him with Gabe Davis and Diggs.

Lamar Jackson has Mark Andrews and …….

Fields has ……

I get your point here but in order to expect an equal outcome from Fields or Jackson, you need to create equal circumstances for them to operate under. If you don’t do that, then you must adjust your expectations accordingly.

I appreciate the sentiment that you believe my two examples were only able to better themselves at the position because they were given better WR targets.
But at the end of the day, if the QB in question can't get the ball to the target effectively, then that is on them, not the WRs or coaches.

Say what you want about Hurts and Allen. But they both got better at hitting the WR in stride; They both got better at anticipating where to throw the ball; they both got better at seeing the whole field and knowing when its better to run or wait and throw.

Jackson still has accuracy issues more than you'd like to see. I think he's progressed almost as much as he's going to, but that's just my opinion.
Fields, I still have hope that he'll get better. Unless Poles and the coaching staff make a drastic decision in which case it won't be mt problem any more to worry about.

[karhu]

Jalen Hurts wasn’t a great passer until the Eagles surrounded him with Brown, Smith, and Goedert

Josh Allen wasn’t a great passer until they surrounded him with Gabe Davis and Diggs.

Lamar Jackson has Mark Andrews and …….

Fields has ……

I get your point here but in order to expect an equal outcome from Fields or Jackson, you need to create equal circumstances for them to operate under. If you don’t do that, then you must adjust your expectations accordingly.

I appreciate the sentiment that you believe my two examples were only able to better themselves at the position because they were given better WR targets.
But at the end of the day, if the QB in question can't get the ball to the target effectively, then that is on them, not the WRs or coaches.

Say what you want about Hurts and Allen. But they both got better at hitting the WR in stride; They both got better at anticipating where to throw the ball; they both got better at seeing the whole field and knowing when its better to run or wait and throw.

Jackson still has accuracy issues more than you'd like to see. I think he's progressed almost as much as he's going to, but that's just my opinion.
Fields, I still have hope that he'll get better. Unless Poles and the coaching staff make a drastic decision in which case it won't be mt problem any more to worry about.

Bang on. The other side of the coin is that it only made sense to invest in better weapons for Hurts and Allen once they started to show that they could use them. Fields isn't all that close to that point yet.

[dplank]

When did Hurts or Allen show this before they acquired Diggs or Brown? I think you are forgetting how they performed their first two years in the league. Both made their quantum leaps AFTER those guys were acquired, not before. Fields is already ahead of where they were IMO.

[The Marshall Plan]

It's low level analysis to discuss the dollar amounts of a contract for a player in a league with a salary cap.

What really matters is the % of the salary cap that contract takes up relative to his peers.

Forgetting all that for a minute....

What is the cost of replacement for LJ?

The Ravens can:

1) Pay LJ. I probably would. He's a top QB in this league and those don't grow on trees.
2) Let LJ go and then go get a FA. Geno Smith? LOL. Ummmm......ummmm......
3) Trade up in this year's draft and draft his replacement. Let LJ walk in FA and get nothing back.
4) Sign and trade LJ to somebody, then some combo of what I said above. Sign an FA, trade up in the draft, etc.

How many teams could realistically take on LJ's contract if that $100M variance is accurate? Not that many.

Here are the teams with the most cap space:

1) Us. (Not in a million fucking years. I have relatives that I would trade before JF1.)
2) Atlanta. (Do they have the draft capital or anything Baltimore gives a damn about?)
3) NYG. (They don't need a QB. Unless they want to trade theirs in the deal.)
4) Houston (They could do it.)
5) Cincinnati. (Ummm.....ummmmmmm)
6) Seattle. (They could do it.)

After this then the cap space becomes a problem to absorb something like a $35M to $45M AAV or whatever.

For LJ, you're talking the Wilson trade on steroids. Wilson is older. Taken a lot more hits. LJ has his whole career in front of him and he's pretty good.

You're talking 3 firsts, a couple seconds, a player and maybe even a lower round pick. Then you take a $40M cap hit on top of it.

So if you're Houston, why not just draft a QB at #2 overall then? They're out.
NYG. Maybe. OK.
Seattle. Same scenario as Houston. If they play their cards right, they could either get somebody at #5. Or trade up, get somebody else, but pay substantially less and avoid the cap hit.

I'm not seeing an LJ trade happening. He either signs with Baltimore (95% likely I think) or leaves via FA.

[Atkins&Rebel]

When did Hurts or Allen show this before they acquired Diggs or Brown? I think you are forgetting how they performed their first two years in the league. Both made their quantum leaps AFTER those guys were acquired, not before. Fields is already ahead of where they were IMO.

Living in the Buffalo market and being friends with and related to more Bills fans than I care to admit, I've seen enough Bills games to testify that Allen did indeed make strides even if his stats didn't explode until Diggs gave him an extra weapon. I take glee in ribbing my friends and family over his mistakes, but they have been fewer and fewer since his rookie year.

Likewise, my fantasy partner (football, strictly platonic) with whom I co-own my big money team drafted Hurts as a rookie. I was very down on him until mid way through year 2 where we started watching him more and more. The kid turned a corner and made his reads pretty well. Brown was a nice addition to the passing attack, but Hurts has been doing all the little things you like to see at the position.

I actually compare where Fields is now to where Hurts was at the end of his rookie year in development, because Fields did grow some this year. But he's nowhere near a finished product and must grow a rate that gives us a chance at a chip.

[karhu]

When did Hurts or Allen show this before they acquired Diggs or Brown? I think you are forgetting how they performed their first two years in the league. Both made their quantum leaps AFTER those guys were acquired, not before. Fields is already ahead of where they were IMO.

Their trajectories were right, and their mistakes were aggressive (and in Allen's case at least, they diminished as his second year went on). I'd like to believe that Fields tops that list, but he just doesn't. The game doesn't seem to have slowed down for him yet, and his one superlative skill isn't nearly as sustainable as Allen's. Hurts strikes me as a mobile pocket passer and Allen a remarkably effective runner who'll be able to use that skill well into his 30s and maybe up to retirement. Fields won't.

More importantly, Allen and Hurts at least played like they knew what to do and when. It could go hilariously wrong, especially with Allen, but at least they knew by their second years where the ball should go and how they wanted to get it there. Fields is not there yet. He's just not.

Then again, he was so in his head that I thought he looked downright unathletic at the start of this season, and he got it together in a big way. He could probably write a textbook right now on how to play QB. He plays like he's researching it. That's what sets him desultorily apart from the other two.

EDIT: What A&R said.

[dplank]

Yea I saw the same thing early on, then the light switch seemed to come on when Getsy modified the offense a bit. I thought his growth was outstanding even while still acknowledging he has more to do. Our disagreement is on how far off he is, I don’t agree with you there I think he’s real close and you’ll see it next year when he finally gets to operate the same offense for two consecutive years.

I just want him to get that same benefit those other guys got before we start trying to compare them. Claypool/Mooney is not in the same stratosphere as Diggs/Davis or Brown/Smith.

[Grizzled]

I don't know if the negotiations are still hung up on the amount of money, fully guaranteed, that Watson got.

A prediction from Bleacher Report, that they will reach agreement on a 5 year $255M contract with $205M guaranteed. Another Bleacher Report item theorizes Jackson being traded to the Falcons. The Ravens receive:

1:8, 4th rounder (#114), 1st rounders in '24 and '25, and QB Desmond Ridder.

The Falcons receive Jackson and a '25 6th rounder.

If the Ravens went this route, how much additional teardown would they do?

[malk]

1-3 in the playoffs with 55.9% completions and 2.2% TDs to 3.7% interceptions. Is yet to start every game in the regular season...

I'd tag and trade for whatever I could get. If that's just one 1st so be it.

[mmmc_35]

I've always wondered when/if a team would ever try to devalue the QB position.

There are a few ways I could see this broached. The most obvious is put tons of talent around a QB, while also continously drafting replacements. Once contracts come up it's either at your set price or bye.

Obviously a HOF QB you pay. And it's super risky buisness practice. But if you could keep that QB cost down you can keep lots of extra talent

[RichH55]

I do wonder if The Ravens really want him back. When I look at Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, those guys both started out shaky, relied on their feet more than average early in their careers. But both progressed their passing game to become complete QB's with real dual threat ability.

Lamar, still relies on his feet more than average, and has progressed some in his passing ability, but not where I'd want to give him a franchise crippling contract.

This is where I'm at with Fields going forward. If we see him progress like Josh and Jalen, then yes he's worth that contract. But if he's still struggling to read defenses, throws too many bone head INTs and runs more than passes, then it's too hard to build a championship team around that style of play.

Jalen Hurts wasn’t a great passer until the Eagles surrounded him with Brown, Smith, and Goedert

Josh Allen wasn’t a great passer until they surrounded him with Gabe Davis and Diggs.

Lamar Jackson has Mark Andrews and …….

Fields has ……

I get your point here but in order to expect an equal outcome from Fields or Jackson, you need to create equal circumstances for them to operate under. If you don’t do that, then you must adjust your expectations accordingly.

Gabe Davis? Really?

[RichH55]

I'd trade Lamar if the deal is there if I was the Ravens

I can't believe Lamar still gets apologism on a BEARS board - 5 Years into his career

Geez

[RichH55]

$32,416,000 is the Franchise Tag number for QB.

Ravens only have $26MM in cap space, they are going to need to make some room.

That will be easy

I think they are playing it well to be honest

If they decide ultimately to guarantee 200+ million - that will heal all wounds.

Until then play a bit of hard ball - See if you get a Godfather offer and maybe Lamar feels a bit of pressure on the contract otherwise

[southdakbearfan]

They can franchise him the next two years and would still be fine.

[Grizzled]

They can franchise him the next two years and would still be fine.

Except the cost that second year would be ruinous.

[southdakbearfan]

They can franchise him the next two years and would still be fine.

Except the cost that second year would be ruinous.

But, it’s still 2 more years of wear and tear on a running qb So it’s a negotiation point.

[Grizzled]

Read this a.m. that Jackson wants a bigger totally guaranteed contract than Watson signed, which Baltimore's balking at offering. So, trade him for a bunch of picks? Franchise him for the next 2 years? Feels like this relationship is irretrievably broken.

[RustinFields]

[RichH55]

I don't think Kip understands how leverage works

[RustinFields]

it's a bit of hyperbole but i think there's a solid point underneath about what lamar's actual worth is