Poll: Addressing RB

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How do you address RB this offseason?

Saquon Barkley (26) @ 12.3 AAV
4
10%
Josh Jacobs (25) @ 12.8 AAV
1
2%
David Montgomery (25) @ 7.2 AAV
13
32%
Jamal Williams (27) @ 4.2 AAV
2
5%
Tony Pollard (26) @ 9 AAV
1
2%
None, draft someone to go with Herbert
20
49%
 
Total votes: 41
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CBS Sports takes a swing at what the top RBs will command on the Free Agency markets.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023 ... sh-jacobs/

What say you if you had the keys to the Bearmobile??

If other, please list who and for how much.
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I’m going with Montgomery. Reward your own if they deserve it. He’s earned that contract and although I think Barkley and Jacobs are better, not for the money.

But I don’t think Barkley and Jacobs don’t make it to FA. That might drive up what Montgomery could get paid and if it’s much more, look to the draft.
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Damn I've been hearing a few people say $6m AAV for Montgomery so this is bumming me out. With these number the close for me between pollard and montgomery.

I decided to choose Montgomery because he's a little cheaper and I know what I'm getting. He's not a STAR but he's a good productive veteran. I would take another 4th or 5th round swing this year and have a competition for RB2. I keep Monty around while I try to find a more complete version of Herbert in the draft. Maybe if nothing improves in 2023 I get frustrated and spend a 2nd or 3rd rounder instead.

My second choice here is Pollard but I'm iffy on the price for a guy that I think is just above average and belongs in the same tier as Montgomery. I think he only gets the hype he gets because of the stupid Zeke contract.
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I've been stumping for Monty, but I can't look past Pollard at 9M. Lots of tread on those tires and he's a game breaker type talent who makes big plays. Pairing him with Herbert would be spectacular and keep both fresh and healthy. So, I went Pollard.
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Ideally, draft. I like this group.
But I think we have a lot bigger needs than Half-Time HB


All pretty closely bunched together:
1) Jamaal Williams at 4.1M
2) Pollard at 9M
3) Montgomery at 7.2M
4) Hope we have enough picks to get to it
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This is a blue-chipper vs journeymen poll, IMO. I voted for Saquon.

That's McCaffrey money I know. Both of those guys have some injury history that justifies nervousness. But also both of those guys are truly complete, explosive modern NFL backs - all around backs that can put up serious rushing AND receiving numbers. He's a guy who everyone knows is getting the ball & he still delivers.

I think Saquon is what we Bear fans frustratingly wish Monty could be because we like him so much - but he just isn't. I'd rationalize paying Saquon $5-6MM more than Monty because he's just substantially better. He's even a much better pass blocker. Bear fans want a stud RB - go get him while you have the cash!

I'd easily pay Saquon $3MM more than Pollard for the certainty of what he is as a load back. Plus - why pay Pollard when you already have him on your team for almost nothing? Pollard is sort of what you'd get if you ran Juice Herbert 200 times and passed to him more. Pollard's first 3 years basically ARE Juice Herbert stats. So why not just turn Juice into the load back? Because he's not that. I don't think Pollard is one either. Bear fans want & need THE guy. YET Poles doesn't have the draft capital for a luxury pick of a top RB - that capital is reserved for the trenches, because that is the foundation.

I'd look at this acquisition as a truly key piece - a legit blue chipper, a true weapon and an important part of the Poles rebuild... like Marshall Faulk joining the Rams-level. The Bears need him. Saquon is what Getsy craves.

And Juice is the perfect complement to Barkley. What a tandem that would be... almost like having Barkley AND Pollard. With Juice being super-cheap for 2 of Barkley's contract years. Yes!

Sorry, Monty - you're not the first nor last of Bears players I loved but couldn't bring what the team needs to get over the top. I know the team loves you for your grit & leadership. But they'll also be smiling once they realize they'd have friggin' Saquon Barkley in the backfield. After all - they want to win more of all.
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I love Monty like a son, but I'm not interested in paying more than about $4-5M AAV for any RB.

He comes back for, say, 3/$15M, I'm in. If not, draft away, lads.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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I’d like to see who gets released between now and the start of free agency and have a better idea of who’s standing out after the combine. It’s easy to say draft someone but if the guy I’m projecting gets some more attention and goes higher than what I’m willing to spend on him it’s pointless.

Jacobs scares me because he was good rookie year, ok the year after. Kinda bleh for two years before the great production in the contract year.

Barkley is a big risk for the injury concerns

Montgomery and Williams are solid and can contribute but not spectacular in the home run side of things.

Pollard makes the most sense as a playmaker and has Herbert behind him to keep him fresh. I don’t know that he can carry the load for a whole season.

Still would consider drafting Robinson if the right set of circumstances unfolded but it’s not likely.
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I think you tell Montgomery you'd love to have him back but he should test the market. I think he may well stay at a lot less than $7m AAV. He isn't a game breaker and, rightly or wrongly, teams will think they can find a player like him in the middle of the draft.
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I'd probably just stick with Herbert/Monty and bring Evans back. Ebner can stay or go, it's whatever.

There are some other dudes out there too that would interest me if Monty isn't brought back. Ronald Jones, Miles Sanders (although he's the same projected cost as Monty, so I'd still prefer Monty), Boston Scott, Devin Singletary, Alexander Mattison, Jerrick McKinnon (although older than I'd prefer). It's a decent FA group.

Having said all of that, I think that if Monty isn't retained, the target will be Jamaal Williams.
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I know I am extremely in the minority here, but I think people here grossly overrate Herbert.
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RustinFields wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:21 pm I know I am extremely in the minority here, but I think people here grossly overrate Herbert.
Your opinion is based on what? Especially I'd like to understand what you mean by "grossly".
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RustinFields wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:21 pm I know I am extremely in the minority here, but I think people here grossly overrate Herbert.
Just some #s
Herbert avg 5.7 yds a carry this year, 5 ypc for his career. Monty avgs 4.1 for his career. Herbert avgs 5.2 yd per touch (rush/rec), Monty 4.5. Last 2 yrs Monty has 3 fumbles, Herbert 1. Games played last 2 yrs is equal for teh most part: Herbert 30, Monty 29.

Herbert is more of a homerun guy, he can break one at any time. Monty, while dependable and can get tough yds, is just not the guy that is going to break one.

Monty is better in pass protection, but is that really what you want from your #1 guy? I want my #1 to be in the pass game/routes, toting the rock with the expectation he can break one at any time.

Backs can be found and if he wants too much, so long. Look what KC got from Pacheco, a 7th rounder I believe.
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Pollard is tempting, but is he a good short yardage back that we'll need without Monty? Also, I don't know if he can pass block, but I know Monty can. Monty is the devil you know.

I don't feel strongly about it, but I'd just bring Monty back, due to the intangibles:
- Rewarding a home grown talent and a guy who works hard sends a strong message to the locker room.
- I expect our OL will be better, which should allow us to get more out of Monty.
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dplank wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:40 pm I've been stumping for Monty, but I can't look past Pollard at 9M. Lots of tread on those tires and he's a game breaker type talent who makes big plays. Pairing him with Herbert would be spectacular and keep both fresh and healthy. So, I went Pollard.
Monty is a very talented running back who has shown he can make big plays, and he's also had a lot of success in college. He could be a great value pick at 9M and could be a real impact player for the team. So..... yeah. Hard to decide here. :toast:
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optimusprime wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:17 pm
dplank wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:40 pm I've been stumping for Monty, but I can't look past Pollard at 9M. Lots of tread on those tires and he's a game breaker type talent who makes big plays. Pairing him with Herbert would be spectacular and keep both fresh and healthy. So, I went Pollard.
Monty is a very talented running back who has shown he can make big plays, and he's also had a lot of success in college. He could be a great value pick at 9M and could be a real impact player for the team. So..... yeah. Hard to decide here. :toast:
9 million per is too much for Monty. I love the dude, but I'm out at that number. Give me 3/21 and it's a deal.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:32 pm I’m going with Montgomery. Reward your own if they deserve it. He’s earned that contract and although I think Barkley and Jacobs are better, not for the money.

But I don’t think Barkley and Jacobs don’t make it to FA. That might drive up what Montgomery could get paid and if it’s much more, look to the draft.
Voted for Monty and agree on all points.
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Monty.

It's generally agreed that he's a reliable blocker - other side of the coin the OL is an unfinished project. Seems like a no-brainer to keep him around until the OL has a chance to get settled and consistent.

Don't fix what aint broke.
Last edited by o-pus #40 in B major on Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Mikefive wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:39 pm Pollard is tempting, but is he a good short yardage back that we'll need without Monty? Also, I don't know if he can pass block, but I know Monty can. Monty is the devil you know.

I don't feel strongly about it, but I'd just bring Monty back, due to the intangibles:
- Rewarding a home grown talent and a guy who works hard sends a strong message to the locker room.
- I expect our OL will be better, which should allow us to get more out of Monty.
I’m not tempted on Pollard with Herbert, but agree with you on the rest.

When comparing YPC between Herbert and Monty, I think you need to look at how many times latter got the ball on 3rd and short when everyone knew it was coming and converted. Maybe I’m all about runs like against Pats where he broke more tackles than I can count, but I want a guy like that. For $7m happy to keep our tandem.

Barkley is awesome but would rather trade down multiple times and pick up Bijan if that was the goal.
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BearsFanInMN wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:35 pm
Mikefive wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:39 pm Pollard is tempting, but is he a good short yardage back that we'll need without Monty? Also, I don't know if he can pass block, but I know Monty can. Monty is the devil you know.

I don't feel strongly about it, but I'd just bring Monty back, due to the intangibles:
- Rewarding a home grown talent and a guy who works hard sends a strong message to the locker room.
- I expect our OL will be better, which should allow us to get more out of Monty.
I’m not tempted on Pollard with Herbert, but agree with you on the rest.

When comparing YPC between Herbert and Monty, I think you need to look at how many times latter got the ball on 3rd and short when everyone knew it was coming and converted. Maybe I’m all about runs like against Pats where he broke more tackles than I can count, but I want a guy like that. For $7m happy to keep our tandem.
Somewhere here someone posted a great graphic that showed Herbert and Montgomery faced stacked boxes nearly the exact same % of the time.
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That would be interesting to see. I’m going by what I remember in games. I just didn’t remember the short yardage carries with Herbert having the same success. Stats might say otherwise.
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I voted to draft somebody.

We need a runner, other than JF1, who is capable of breaking out the big runs. JF1's runs are NOT a function of our run blocking. It's because he's scrambling for his life, the defense is caught off guard by his running and he's able to make the big play.

Monty's carries of 3 yards, 3 yards, 6 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards, etc. doesn't get it done. I don't want him back. He's done that for years around here.

Now I freely admit that some of that is a function of the OL and that actually may be the real problem here.

That is also one of the reasons why I said draft somebody. Because then you take the cap money for one of those other guys and buy better lineman.

In terms of the draft, I really like Gibbs out of Alabama, but realistically I don't know if we can get him unless we're willing to commit a 2nd to him and that would be a function of a trade down.

Pollard has a higher Y/A than Barkley, but Pollard runs behind that line. Josh Jacobs is not the big play guy we need.

However, this is a situation where we can walk and chew gum at the same time. If we're going FA, I'd go Pollard because he'd be cheaper than Barkley or Jacobs and that's more money for the OL.

But I just want to emphasize the real problem here is the OL.
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Moriarty wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:58 pm Somewhere here someone posted a great graphic that showed Herbert and Montgomery faced stacked boxes nearly the exact same % of the time.
Does it also show what the results were in those situations? Does it show where the runs were designed to go? How many were 3rd and shorts or on the goal line? How many resulted in 1st downs or TDs? It would be interesting to know, but I doubt that information is out there. It would take a lot of tape watching to collate it all.

Monty seemed to run up the gut and gain tough yards to sustain drives more often than Herbert (hardly surprising given Monty was usually the preferred back on 3rd down) but I haven't been able to find any stats to confirm that. Part (although by no means all) of Herbert's much higher ypc were due to him breaking off a few big plays which seemed to come on runs wide where he then did a great job cutting back and finding a lane. Once a RB hits the open field he's going to get big yards.

Here are some 2022 rushing stats (from Pro Football Reference and nfl.com) to bear in mind:

Montgomery:
Average yards before contact: 2.0
Average yards after contact: 2.0
Attempts per broken tackles per: 10.1
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.4 %
Runs over 20 yards: 2
Runs over 40 yards: 0

Herbert:
Average yards before contact: 3.1
Average yards after contact: 2.5
Attempts per broken tackles per: 14.3
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.2 %
Runs over 20 yards: 4
Runs over 40 yards: 2

Looking at those, it appears Montgomery had less opportunity to get up to full speed before contact than Herbert but broke tackles more frequently. Is that a function of the type of runs and how well the offensive line blocked those or is it that Monty doesn't see and hit holes as quickly as Herbert?

I think people are overrating Herbert to a degree based on those few big plays he had. 4 runs over 20 yards with two of those going for 40+ isn't spectacular. Monty had 5 runs over 20 yards each of the previous two years with 3 of those going for 40+, albeit on more carries. He just didn't have a good year in that regard in 2022.

I like both backs. I like the fact that if either gets injured the other can step up and take on the extra load. I'd like to see what they can do as a tandem behind a stronger O-line and with a better passing game. Also they seem to have a really good relationship, appreciating and pushing each other. I like that dynamic. I like the attitude they bring. It fits with the culture Eberflus is creating.

Herbert's still got 2 years on his rookie deal. I have no problem with Monty getting some coin for the next couple of years while Herbert's cap hits are around $1m. I'm more interested in the amount invested in a position than I am how much is going to each individual. $10m or so a year for your whole RB group is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:40 am
Moriarty wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:58 pm Somewhere here someone posted a great graphic that showed Herbert and Montgomery faced stacked boxes nearly the exact same % of the time.
Does it also show what the results were in those situations? Does it show where the runs were designed to go? How many were 3rd and shorts or on the goal line? How many resulted in 1st downs or TDs? It would be interesting to know, but I doubt that information is out there. It would take a lot of tape watching to collate it all.

Monty seemed to run up the gut and gain tough yards to sustain drives more often than Herbert (hardly surprising given Monty was usually the preferred back on 3rd down) but I haven't been able to find any stats to confirm that. Part (although by no means all) of Herbert's much higher ypc were due to him breaking off a few big plays which seemed to come on runs wide where he then did a great job cutting back and finding a lane. Once a RB hits the open field he's going to get big yards.

Here are some 2022 rushing stats (from Pro Football Reference and nfl.com) to bear in mind:

Montgomery:
Average yards before contact: 2.0
Average yards after contact: 2.0
Attempts per broken tackles per: 10.1
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.4 %
Runs over 20 yards: 2
Runs over 40 yards: 0

Herbert:
Average yards before contact: 3.1
Average yards after contact: 2.5
Attempts per broken tackles per: 14.3
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.2 %
Runs over 20 yards: 4
Runs over 40 yards: 2

Looking at those, it appears Montgomery had less opportunity to get up to full speed before contact than Herbert but broke tackles more frequently. Is that a function of the type of runs and how well the offensive line blocked those or is it that Monty doesn't see and hit holes as quickly as Herbert?

I think people are overrating Herbert to a degree based on those few big plays he had. 4 runs over 20 yards with two of those going for 40+ isn't spectacular. Monty had 5 runs over 20 yards each of the previous two years with 3 of those going for 40+, albeit on more carries. He just didn't have a good year in that regard in 2022.

I like both backs. I like the fact that if either gets injured the other can step up and take on the extra load. I'd like to see what they can do as a tandem behind a stronger O-line and with a better passing game. Also they seem to have a really good relationship, appreciating and pushing each other. I like that dynamic. I like the attitude they bring. It fits with the culture Eberflus is creating.

Herbert's still got 2 years on his rookie deal. I have no problem with Monty getting some coin for the next couple of years while Herbert's cap hits are around $1m. I'm more interested in the amount invested in a position than I am how much is going to each individual. $10m or so a year for your whole RB group is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.
I think the point that gets WAY overlooked when comparing their raw stats is, CONSISTENTLY Monty was used in the first half of games with a fresh Herbert spelling him as the game went on. It was a great system that I loved because it was 100% designed to wear defenses down with Herbert on cleanup duty. I think looking at their stats and drawing the conclusion that Herbert is the better runner is ignoring a lot of situational football.

Does first half versus second half stats exist out there, to better understand snap distribution?
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I took Saquon. He is a top runner and a top receiving threat. I'd take (in order) Saquon, Jacobs, Pollard, Monty, then Williams. But I also lump the cap hits for QBs and HBs together since the ball is (almost) always in one of their hands. So rookie contract is when I am willing to throw money at RBs. A great receiver out of the backfield will help Fields, and Saquon and Jacobs are just two of the top guys in the league.

I don't trust Herbert enough to throw him as a bellcow back but if doing a rotation then Monty and Williams are fine.

Until I see how the FA period goes I am nervous for assigning a RB as a draft pick.I want to stack the trenches so that may be a top option later.
Last edited by Sugashane on Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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RustinFields wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:12 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:40 am

Does it also show what the results were in those situations? Does it show where the runs were designed to go? How many were 3rd and shorts or on the goal line? How many resulted in 1st downs or TDs? It would be interesting to know, but I doubt that information is out there. It would take a lot of tape watching to collate it all.

Monty seemed to run up the gut and gain tough yards to sustain drives more often than Herbert (hardly surprising given Monty was usually the preferred back on 3rd down) but I haven't been able to find any stats to confirm that. Part (although by no means all) of Herbert's much higher ypc were due to him breaking off a few big plays which seemed to come on runs wide where he then did a great job cutting back and finding a lane. Once a RB hits the open field he's going to get big yards.

Here are some 2022 rushing stats (from Pro Football Reference and nfl.com) to bear in mind:

Montgomery:
Average yards before contact: 2.0
Average yards after contact: 2.0
Attempts per broken tackles per: 10.1
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.4 %
Runs over 20 yards: 2
Runs over 40 yards: 0

Herbert:
Average yards before contact: 3.1
Average yards after contact: 2.5
Attempts per broken tackles per: 14.3
Runs for 1st down percentage: 20.2 %
Runs over 20 yards: 4
Runs over 40 yards: 2

Looking at those, it appears Montgomery had less opportunity to get up to full speed before contact than Herbert but broke tackles more frequently. Is that a function of the type of runs and how well the offensive line blocked those or is it that Monty doesn't see and hit holes as quickly as Herbert?

I think people are overrating Herbert to a degree based on those few big plays he had. 4 runs over 20 yards with two of those going for 40+ isn't spectacular. Monty had 5 runs over 20 yards each of the previous two years with 3 of those going for 40+, albeit on more carries. He just didn't have a good year in that regard in 2022.

I like both backs. I like the fact that if either gets injured the other can step up and take on the extra load. I'd like to see what they can do as a tandem behind a stronger O-line and with a better passing game. Also they seem to have a really good relationship, appreciating and pushing each other. I like that dynamic. I like the attitude they bring. It fits with the culture Eberflus is creating.

Herbert's still got 2 years on his rookie deal. I have no problem with Monty getting some coin for the next couple of years while Herbert's cap hits are around $1m. I'm more interested in the amount invested in a position than I am how much is going to each individual. $10m or so a year for your whole RB group is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.
I think the point that gets WAY overlooked when comparing their raw stats is, CONSISTENTLY Monty was used in the first half of games with a fresh Herbert spelling him as the game went on. It was a great system that I loved because it was 100% designed to wear defenses down with Herbert on cleanup duty. I think looking at their stats and drawing the conclusion that Herbert is the better runner is ignoring a lot of situational football.

Does first half versus second half stats exist out there, to better understand snap distribution?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 00/splits/

Herbert career ypc in the first half: 5.3
Ypc in the second half: 4.7

So there goes that theory about Herbert cherry-picking.

I sort of find it strange that HRS shared the stats that showed Juice was more productive and then went on to sort of apologize that Monty couldn't get to speed, is still probably better & maybe isn't getting the same sort of chances. HRS the answer to your question is yes we do know how they performed against 8 man fronts - the chart shows their success, and Herbert wasnt' just better than Monty against an 8 man front - but head & shoulders above the entire league. Granted, both he and Monty only saw 8 man fronts 25% of the time. Few RBs in the league saw more than 25-30% so that isn't unusual (even if it is surprising). So for Juice that's only 32-33 carries and he was up over 5.5 ypc. Is that a good sample? Monty's was about 50 and he was under 4 ypc. I think it is enough to have a picture forming... here it is.
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There is INTENSE bias on the board about Monty - not grossly overrating Herbert. And a lot of it is based on things that just aren't necessarily true: He's not *that* much better in pass pro than Juice, and he doesn't get more yards after contact than Juice. He DOES break more tackles - but if that isn't turning into getting more yards what does that matter at all? IF anything, it just shows that Monty might be out of the league if he didn't break a lot of tackles just to get below average ypc. That's the truth.

I LIKE Monty's leadership but won't feed the delusion about what he is. He's not a stealth superhero of the team. IF stats and production matter, he might be holding them back - to be objective.

Side note: If the line isn't responsible for JF1's yards, then does Juice get the same sort of credit? I mean... 5.7 ypc on 130 carries is no fluke. The guy is great in this scheme. It is a good fit. Aaron Jones came out of the low rounds and thrived in it too averaging 5.5 ypc in his first two years with shockingly Juice-like stats, and then broke out in this third. Similar type guy. There is plenty of precedent for a guy like Juice to emerge as a great player. I'm NOT saying I would bet on that. I WOULD bet on Barkley far more than any other player on that list - and that's why I voted how I did. I'd consider it another investment in surrounding JF1 with top talent, and with a very high floor (much higher than Monty).
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Grizzled
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Saw one estimate for Monty: $19M, 3 year, $14M guaranteed. I don't know if he'd take that deal but it's quite reasonable
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Grizzled wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:53 am Saw one estimate for Monty: $19M, 3 year, $14M guaranteed. I don't know if he'd take that deal but it's quite reasonable
The overall cash is good, but that's a big guarantee for a physical RB who gets the crap beat out of him.
optimuspime wrote:Monty is a very talented running back who has shown he can make big plays, and he's also had a lot of success in college. He could be a great value pick at 9M and could be a real impact player for the team. So..... yeah. Hard to decide here.
This is where I disagree a bit ... I don't think he is a "very talented" running back - and maybe it's how we are defining "talented" .... he's tough, reliable, grinder - but talented to me are the elite physical traits (speed, shiftiness, etc.) that he doesn't possess. I love the guy, but he maximizes 150% of his relative pedestrian talent. I'd advocate to resign him at the right place, but I think you're always going to be looking to upgrade from the elite skill sets perspective.
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IE wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:45 am
RustinFields wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:12 am

I think the point that gets WAY overlooked when comparing their raw stats is, CONSISTENTLY Monty was used in the first half of games with a fresh Herbert spelling him as the game went on. It was a great system that I loved because it was 100% designed to wear defenses down with Herbert on cleanup duty. I think looking at their stats and drawing the conclusion that Herbert is the better runner is ignoring a lot of situational football.

Does first half versus second half stats exist out there, to better understand snap distribution?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 00/splits/

Herbert career ypc in the first half: 5.3
Ypc in the second half: 4.7

So there goes that theory about Herbert cherry-picking.

I sort of find it strange that HRS shared the stats that showed Juice was more productive and then went on to sort of apologize that Monty couldn't get to speed, is still probably better & maybe isn't getting the same sort of chances. HRS the answer to your question is yes we do know how they performed against 8 man fronts - the chart shows their success, and Herbert wasnt' just better than Monty against an 8 man front - but head & shoulders above the entire league. Granted, both he and Monty only saw 8 man fronts 25% of the time. Few RBs in the league saw more than 25-30% so that isn't unusual (even if it is surprising). So for Juice that's only 32-33 carries and he was up over 5.5 ypc. Is that a good sample? Monty's was about 50 and he was under 4 ypc. I think it is enough to have a picture forming... here it is.
These splits stats are great, thanks!

So, I'm not talking about Monty being better than Herbert, I never was, I'm talking about trying to better understand how their usage affects what their stats mean. Dont just give me YPC for each half, we need to look at how many carries they're actually getting. Monty gets way more carries in the first and third quarters, and then Herbert gets the majority of his carries in the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Monty softens up defenses and Herbert gets to benefit from it with fresh legs. I believe this paints an incorrect picture of how Herbert would fair as a feature back.
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RustinFields wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:12 am I think the point that gets WAY overlooked when comparing their raw stats is, CONSISTENTLY Monty was used in the first half of games with a fresh Herbert spelling him as the game went on. It was a great system that I loved because it was 100% designed to wear defenses down with Herbert on cleanup duty. I think looking at their stats and drawing the conclusion that Herbert is the better runner is ignoring a lot of situational football.

Does first half versus second half stats exist out there, to better understand snap distribution?
nfl.com includes those stat.

2022 per half

Montgomery:
1st Half: 101 carries for 388 yards (3.8 ypc)
2nd Half: 100 carries for 413 yards (4.1 ypc)

Herbert:
1st Half: 61 carries for 325 yards (5.3 ypc)
2nd Half: 68 carries for 406 yards (6.0 ypc)

2022 per quarter

Montgomery:
Q1: 67 carries for 280 yards (4.2 ypc)
Q2: 34 carries for 194 yards (3.2 ypc)
Q3: 57 carries for 219 yards (3.8 ypc)
Q4: 43 carries for 194 yards (4.5 ypc)

Herbert:
Q1: 22 carries for 106 yards (4.8 ypc)
Q2: 39 carries for 219 yards (5.6 ypc)
Q3: 26 carries for 177 yards (6.8 ypc)
Q4: 42 carries for 229 yards (5.4 ypc)

So Montgomery gets more work of his work in the 1st and 3rd quarters and Herbert in the 2nd and 4th quarters, which evens out over a half.
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