The DJ Moore Thread

[dplank]

Eh, it still makes the Claypool trade go from “having potential” to “unnecessary”.

That #32 pick would mean all the difference in the world now.

Agree, Poles made a big ass mistake on the Claypool debacle.

[wab]

Eh, it still makes the Claypool trade go from “having potential” to “unnecessary”.

That #32 pick would mean all the difference in the world now.

You're ultimately critiquing the Claypool trade. You don't pass up bona-fide improvement moves in an attempt to salvage lower ceiling possible misses.

If you don't have missrs, you aren't trying.

I literally said my misgivings were about Claypool and not Moore.

[G08]

[IE]

Claypool is NOT a MISS at this point! This "one year rental" thing is an incredible strawman with no basis. He *might* turn out to be a miss for the Bears but we in NO way know that - and it seems highly unlikely. If he puts up 8-900 yards and 4-6 TDs as the #2 WR he is absolutely worth that pick. And that seems like his floor. He's going nowhere unless he tries to force Poles to overpay.

Claypool and Mooney are going to be competing this year to see who emerges as that #2 guy. But with an offseason I wouldn't rule out Pool becoming a more favored target, as a big fast body down field and not even demanding the other team's top corner. Both guys make acrobatic catches but Pool is going to win on contested catches more.

[IE]

People always marvel over how guys like Jefferson or Chase can still get open even when literally everybody knows the ball is likely coming to them. That slippery skillset is something DJ posesses.

I also suspect DJ is going to really buy into HITS. Lots of stories out there about the intensity of his play & hustle.

[The Marshall Plan]

Claypool is NOT a MISS at this point! This "one year rental" thing is an incredible strawman with no basis. He *might* turn out to be a miss for the Bears but we in NO way know that - and it seems highly unlikely. If he puts up 8-900 yards and 4-6 TDs as the #2 WR he is absolutely worth that pick. And that seems like his floor. He's going nowhere unless he tries to force Poles to overpay.

Claypool and Mooney are going to be competing this year to see who emerges as that #2 guy. But with an offseason I wouldn't rule out Pool becoming a more favored target, as a big fast body down field and not even demanding the other team's top corner. Both guys make acrobatic catches but Pool is going to win on contested catches more.

Chase Claypool is going into the season as the #3 WR. He's 6'4" and well over 200 lbs.

The opposing slot corner is going to have a lot of fun trying to cover that when he's giving up half a foot of reach and over 20 lbs.

I'm expecting a huge year from Claypool. Everything is there for him to excel.

[The Cooler King]

You're ultimately critiquing the Claypool trade. You don't pass up bona-fide improvement moves in an attempt to salvage lower ceiling possible misses.

If you don't have missrs, you aren't trying.

I literally said my misgivings were about Claypool and not Moore.

You said you were meh on the deal though. That doesn't make sense.

[bearsoldier]

[thunderspirit]

I literally said my misgivings were about Claypool and not Moore.

You said you were meh on the deal though. That doesn't make sense.

He said he was meh on the deal, in part, as a result of the Claypool trade.

While the rationale ignores sunk costs, it appears to be just how he feels. And feelings aren't wrong.

[dplank]

Claypool is NOT a MISS at this point! This "one year rental" thing is an incredible strawman with no basis. He *might* turn out to be a miss for the Bears but we in NO way know that - and it seems highly unlikely. If he puts up 8-900 yards and 4-6 TDs as the #2 WR he is absolutely worth that pick. And that seems like his floor. He's going nowhere unless he tries to force Poles to overpay.

Claypool and Mooney are going to be competing this year to see who emerges as that #2 guy. But with an offseason I wouldn't rule out Pool becoming a more favored target, as a big fast body down field and not even demanding the other team's top corner. Both guys make acrobatic catches but Pool is going to win on contested catches more.

Ummmm….nonfriggin way would I trade #32 pick for an 800 yard 4-6 TD WR

[IE]

Claypool is NOT a MISS at this point! This "one year rental" thing is an incredible strawman with no basis. He *might* turn out to be a miss for the Bears but we in NO way know that - and it seems highly unlikely. If he puts up 8-900 yards and 4-6 TDs as the #2 WR he is absolutely worth that pick. And that seems like his floor. He's going nowhere unless he tries to force Poles to overpay.

Claypool and Mooney are going to be competing this year to see who emerges as that #2 guy. But with an offseason I wouldn't rule out Pool becoming a more favored target, as a big fast body down field and not even demanding the other team's top corner. Both guys make acrobatic catches but Pool is going to win on contested catches more.

Ummmm….nonfriggin way would I trade #32 pick for an 800 yard 4-6 TD WR

Maybe. I probably didn't write that the way I intended. I meant that is his floor. His ceiling is above 1000 and 10 TDs. Based on actual results.

[dplank]

Ummmm….nonfriggin way would I trade #32 pick for an 800 yard 4-6 TD WR

Maybe. I probably didn't write that the way I intended. I meant that is his floor. His ceiling is above 1000 and 10 TDs. Based on actual results.

Yea he could still work out, we will know this year. He has a high ceiling. I just don’t like the sizable bet that Poles placed on that happening, I think his floor is a much more likely scenario (hope to be wrong here). Betting against the odds (JMO) with the #32 pick in the draft just isn’t wise. And making that bet even worse, we only got him for one season before there’s a contract decision forced on us. Now, maybe it works out, it just feels like a bad bet to me considering the value of that pick - all of which is out of character for Poles. He generally plays it safe, calm and cool. It’s just one misstep, his pros far outweigh the few moves that I haven’t agreed with.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Some more DJ Moore breakdowns to whet the appetite:

[HurricaneBear]

Maybe. I probably didn't write that the way I intended. I meant that is his floor. His ceiling is above 1000 and 10 TDs. Based on actual results.

Yea he could still work out, we will know this year. He has a high ceiling. I just don’t like the sizable bet that Poles placed on that happening, I think his floor is a much more likely scenario (hope to be wrong here). Betting against the odds (JMO) with the #32 pick in the draft just isn’t wise. And making that bet even worse, we only got him for one season before there’s a contract decision forced on us. Now, maybe it works out, it just feels like a bad bet to me considering the value of that pick - all of which is out of character for Poles. He generally plays it safe, calm and cool. It’s just one misstep, his pros far outweigh the few moves that I haven’t agreed with.

Did Poles over pay for Claypool? Possibly. But the most important thing this season is raising the talent floor around Justin Fields in the offense. If Claypool were not a Bear, I would think that pick at 32 would most likely be a wide receiver. I for one like Claypool at 32 more than any of the wide receivers in this draft unless JSN were to somehow drop there. So I'm okay with Claypool for that reason.

DJ Moore, Mooney, Claypool, VJJ, ESB and....Tajae Sharpe? is a wide receiver room I'm ok with. Remove Claypool and I'm not ok with it.

Fix the lines, add another TE and draft a 3rd-5th round running back and this offense is starting to come around.

[The Marshall Plan]

I just don’t like the sizable bet that Poles placed on that happening, I think his floor is a much more likely scenario (hope to be wrong here).

This is a very fair point.

I'm not complaining that DJ Moore is here. Far from it. You and I were two of the people here calling for a major move via trade for an elite WR.

But doesn't it seem weird in retrospect that Poles paid that high a price for Claypool only to then turn around get DJ Moore knowing he'd still have Mooney?

Poles has effectively spent a high second rounder (Claypool) and a future first round pick on WRs already; figuring that Moore = 1st round pick in the trade.

If only Poles had that same aggression about the OL and DL we'd have a much better team.

That being said I stand by what I'm saying about Claypool being poised to have a monster year. He's going to be Mismatch City for the #3 CB every game.

[IE]

Hindsight.

An OK and understandable move does not become bad because a super fortunate unthinkably better great opportunity arises.

Buying insurance isn't a waste just because later you wish you would have spent that money on something else when it turns out you didn't need it.

[wab]

Something can actually be considered a poor decision in hindsight. It’s ok to say that.

One of these darts that Poles keeps throwing at WRs needs to eventually hit. Moore should finally be that guy.

Doesn’t make the decision to trade a premium pick for Claypool any less of a bad decision now though.

[dplank]

Hindsight.

An OK and understandable move does not become bad because a super fortunate unthinkably better great opportunity arises.

Buying insurance isn't a waste just because later you wish you would have spent that money on something else when it turns out you didn't need it.

You can overpay for your insurance premium though, that’s the gripe here. Not the fact that we bought one, but that we way overpaid for it.

It’s ok to not like one move he made, he’s not perfect. I still like how he’s building this team, I think this is one he’d like to have back though.

Not discussed enough here IMO is the contract part. My biggest issue with it is that we are forced into a contract decision after this season. If we had pick 32, we wouldn’t face a decision/ price hike for 4 years. We paid a high price for a one year rental and that’s just bad business. It’s not solely our discretion to resign him if we like him, he’s a UFA after this year.

[IE]

Something can actually be considered a poor decision in hindsight. It’s ok to say that.

One of these darts that Poles keeps throwing at WRs needs to eventually hit. Moore should finally be that guy.

Doesn’t make the decision to trade a premium pick for Claypool any less of a bad decision now though.

He didn't even trade 32. THAT is hindsight.

I don't agree with what you said here at all. We don't go back and call decisions poor simply based on later having full information. We have to judge decisions based on the rationale at the time, and don't call it a "poor decision" unless the logic was faulty.

Poles' logic to spend a 2nd rounder likely at that time to be around #40 (based on how JF1 was progressing) on a resource he needed and couldn't get in any other way was highly sound. JUST because he/we got lucky later (I personally think they actually *earned* a lot of the tank, plus the last second nudge from I love Lovie again Smith) doesn't change anything about that decision quality.

And especially since you REALLY don't know at all how well Claypool will contribute to the Bears going forward, it is probably not something to obsess over at the current levels. Calling an understandable use of resources to help your young QB a "big ass mistake" ... is a big ass mistake.

[The Kaiser]

I think it has been mentioned earlier but there are a lot of similarities between what Poles is doing with Fields compared to what the Brandon Bean did with Josh Allen in Buffalo.

Towards the end of Allen's 2nd year, it became evident that the Bills did indeed have a QB with serious potential. They knew though that they needed to get him a receiving weapon-- enter Stefon Diggs. In that off season before Allen's third year, Diggs had just finished his 5th year with the Vikes. He was, in fact, one year into a major contract extension he had signed the year before.

His stats during those first five years? I'll detail them below but the Maryland WR was improving and was valued.

You see the point: 2nd year QB. Shows potential, lacks weapons, front office works a deal to bring in a 5 year experienced receiver with good performance history who recently singed a contract extension with the team that drafted him. Oh, and the receivers went to the same college? Weird.

Anyway, it's a copy cat league and you can see Poles applying that formula to the tee.

Here is a comparison of Diggs vs. DJ Moore's stats in their first 5 seasons with their teams before being traded:

Diggs:................................Moore:
Rec's: 365.........................364
Yards: 4623......................5201
TDs: 30.............................21
Yards/Rec: 12.7...............14.3
Rec/Game: 5.2 ................4.6
Yards/Game: 66............... 65
TD/Game: 0.4....................0.3
Rush Att/Yds: 29/159 ......39/335

Basically, Moore leads in nearly every statistical category except TDs and that can be attributed to playing for really shitty teams. If DJ Moore can breakout with JF1 like Diggs did with Josh Allen, well...this will be an interesting year ahead.

[wab]

Something can actually be considered a poor decision in hindsight. It’s ok to say that.

One of these darts that Poles keeps throwing at WRs needs to eventually hit. Moore should finally be that guy.

Doesn’t make the decision to trade a premium pick for Claypool any less of a bad decision now though.

He didn't even trade 32. THAT is hindsight.

I don't agree with what you said here at all. We don't go back and call decisions poor simply based on later having full information. We have to judge decisions based on the rationale at the time, and don't call it a "poor decision" unless the logic was faulty.

Poles' logic to spend a 2nd rounder likely at that time to be around #40 (based on how JF1 was progressing) on a resource he needed and couldn't get in any other way was highly sound. JUST because he/we got lucky later (I personally think they actually *earned* a lot of the tank, plus the last second nudge from I love Lovie again Smith) doesn't change anything about that decision quality.

And especially since you REALLY don't know at all how well Claypool will contribute to the Bears going forward, it is probably not something to obsess over at the current levels. Calling an understandable use of resources to help your young QB a "big ass mistake" ... is a big ass mistake.

Show me where I said it was a “big ass mistake”.

I am of the opinion that trading for Claypool was a poor decision based on new information.

We can disagree.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Good Lord people. I really thought that we all agreed that there was no way to grade the Claypool trade until after the first few games of 2023. The Bears threw him on the field not knowing the whole playbook, not having plays designed specifically for him, and having no established chemistry with JF1. But now the trade is a “debacle” yet he hasn’t gone through one off-season, OTA, training camp, preseason game with the team.

[IE]

He didn't even trade 32. THAT is hindsight.

I don't agree with what you said here at all. We don't go back and call decisions poor simply based on later having full information. We have to judge decisions based on the rationale at the time, and don't call it a "poor decision" unless the logic was faulty.

Poles' logic to spend a 2nd rounder likely at that time to be around #40 (based on how JF1 was progressing) on a resource he needed and couldn't get in any other way was highly sound. JUST because he/we got lucky later (I personally think they actually *earned* a lot of the tank, plus the last second nudge from I love Lovie again Smith) doesn't change anything about that decision quality.

And especially since you REALLY don't know at all how well Claypool will contribute to the Bears going forward, it is probably not something to obsess over at the current levels. Calling an understandable use of resources to help your young QB a "big ass mistake" ... is a big ass mistake.

Show me where I said it was a “big ass mistake”.

I am of the opinion that trading for Claypool was a poor decision based on new information.

We can disagree.

It was Plank who said that. Sorry - didn't mean to imply you did. But my statement here about disingenuously criticizing good decisions with hindsight applies to both of you - and you seem to be in lockstep suppporting each other on this.

We three definitely disagree on somthing. Maybe the phrasing and the implication of statements. Saying "unfortunately that pragmatic trade looks less necessary and too rich based on the ultimate value of that pick and our recent unexpected luck" would seem to be a more reasonable way to characterize the situation. But you guys are going for the jugular on it.

Referring to a blockbuster and fortunate trade as "meh" and implying Poles didn't do a really good job based on hindsight - sorry, but that's not you at your most reasonable, man.

[The Marshall Plan]

Good Lord people. I really thought that we all agreed that there was no way to grade the Claypool trade until after the first few games of 2023. The Bears threw him on the field not knowing the whole playbook, not having plays designed specifically for him, and having no established chemistry with JF1. But now the trade is a “debacle” yet he hasn’t gone through one off-season, OTA, training camp, preseason game with the team.

This is where I am.

We'll know half a dozen games in.

If Claypool, at 6'4" and 200+ pounds with good speed cannot make mince meat out of the #3 CB then that trade is a disaster of epic proportions.

This offense is so close to greatness now. Getsy needs to run 3 WR sets on virtually every play. There's no team that has 3 quality corners to match this and you can't double team them all.

Just need a line to block for it and then a legit RB capable of the big run and this is going to be crazy to watch every Sunday.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Great to hear folks analyzing this rare conundrum the Bears are in with too many high potential WR's. Love the various points of discussion - very interesting and thought-provoking.

But my biggest hope is that, pretty damn soon, Bears will have too many good linemen to find enough snaps for them all.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

It wasn’t pick 32 when he traded for Claypool.
It was probably more like pick 38, could have been pick 45.

I’m still happy with it, draft picks are a crap shoot anyway.

[RichH55]

Eh, it still makes the Claypool trade go from “having potential” to “unnecessary”.

That #32 pick would mean all the difference in the world now.

Agree, Poles made a big ass mistake on the Claypool debacle.

It's like a mat - where you jump......

to conclusions

[RichH55]

Something can actually be considered a poor decision in hindsight. It’s ok to say that.

One of these darts that Poles keeps throwing at WRs needs to eventually hit. Moore should finally be that guy.

Doesn’t make the decision to trade a premium pick for Claypool any less of a bad decision now though.

It can - but the move was clearly for the 2023 season - Which ummmm ahem hasn't happened yet?

You can't have hindsight on events that have yet to occur - Posters on this board aren't Scott Bakula in Quantum Leap

[dplank]

Everyone acknowledges that we don’t know how Claypool will ultimately perform and so judging the results of the trade can’t happen until after this upcoming season. Any claims that is what we are saying here are strawman arguments and not understanding the point being made, so I will again try and clarify it.

I’m not judging the results I’m judging the bet itself. Meaning, the probability of a successful outcome vs an unsuccessful outcome, the cost of the bet, and the potential return if successful. That’s all I’m talking about here, the bet itself. I think he made a poor bet all things considered. That doesn’t mean he won’t win the hand, it just means it was a bad bet in my view which isn’t something you want to be doing regularly as law of averages eventually catches up with you.

As to why I see it as a bad bet:

1. The cost was REALLY high. It was uncertain when he placed the bet, but a reasonable assumption was it was in the 32 - 38 range. The fact that it turned into #32 sucks but was within the range of potential outcomes and that cost is now set. There is zero argument here that the cost isn’t high, it is very high.

2. The time window to achieve a positive result is too short. We have one season of Claypool to evaluate him. We have one season of Claypool at a low cost, then his cost will balloon if we have a successful outcome, therefore minimizing his actual value vs cost. If it goes the other way and we don’t keep him, full on disaster as we pissed away a premium pick for nothing.

3. The upside on winning the bet is dampened by the contract it will require to keep him. Another potential option for apples could have been to keep our pick and try to sign Claypool as a UFA next offseason.

4. I don’t like Claypool’s attitude and think he could be a problem in the locker room. I’m not claiming this with certainty, it’s JMO but it plays a part in my personal analysis of the deal. You may disagree.

So when I look at all of this on one hand, and the #32 pick (with 4 years of contract control) on the other hand, I have a hard time with the deal. Can it still work out? Absolutely yes it can and I absolutely hope it does and I will root for that outcome. I just don’t think Poles placed a value bet here, I’m hoping he wins in spite of that.

This is not going for the jugular IE, I think this is a very reasonable opinion.

[RichH55]

Good Lord people. I really thought that we all agreed that there was no way to grade the Claypool trade until after the first few games of 2023. The Bears threw him on the field not knowing the whole playbook, not having plays designed specifically for him, and having no established chemistry with JF1. But now the trade is a “debacle” yet he hasn’t gone through one off-season, OTA, training camp, preseason game with the team.

Pendulum has to swing to extremes!!!!!!!!!!