Grade The Trade....Down

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Moderator: wab

Grade The Trade Down

10: OMG this is amazing. Herschel Walker Trade 2.0
3
6%
9
15
31%
8
23
48%
7
3
6%
6
2
4%
5: Meh. I'd grade it a lot higher if we got Gardner Minshew as part of the deal.
2
4%
4
0
No votes
3
0
No votes
2
0
No votes
1: This is Rick Mirer all over again. Fire Ryan Poles.
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 48
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karhu
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On the other hand, 1.02 could get a lot of good offers for Maye. Crown prince's ransom or a WR? Plenty of teams would trade down. I suspect that Harrison goes 3-5 when the dust settles.
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HisRoyalSweetness
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G08 wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:47 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:08 pm If we do wind up with the #1 pick, and we don't need a QB, do we just draft Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Fuck no, we sell that pick to the highest bidder!
Absolutely. Except for a QB I wouldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire multiple high draft picks in order to take one player, no matter how great a prospect. Harrison might prove to be great or he might disappoint or be injury-prone. Better to have multiple bites of the cherry in my book.

There have only been two trades for the first overall pick in the last 20 years.

We all know what the Bears got this year:
  • DJ Moore
  • 2023 R1 (No. 9)
  • 2023 R2 (No. 61)
  • 2024 R1
  • 2025 R2
The other was the Rams trade for Jared Goff in 2016. The Titans got:
  • 2016 R1 (No. 15)
  • 2016 R2 (No. 43)
  • 2016 R2 (No. 45)
  • 2016 R3 (No. 76)
  • 2017 R1 (No. 5)
  • 2017 R3 (No. 100)
The Rams got a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113) and 2016 R6 (No.177) back.

That's a lot of draft capital. The Titans still had a top 5 pick from the Rams the following year and we're speculating the Bears may well have the number 1 overall from the Panthers. In that scenario they could well get a top 5 pick again following year.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 9:19 pm
G08 wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:47 pm

Fuck no, we sell that pick to the highest bidder!
Absolutely. Except for a QB I wouldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire multiple high draft picks in order to take one player, no matter how great a prospect. Harrison might prove to be great or he might disappoint or be injury-prone. Better to have multiple bites of the cherry in my book.

There have only been two trades for the first overall pick in the last 20 years.

We all know what the Bears got this year:
  • DJ Moore
  • 2023 R1 (No. 9)
  • 2023 R2 (No. 61)
  • 2024 R1
  • 2025 R2
The other was the Rams trade for Jared Goff in 2016. The Titans got:
  • 2016 R1 (No. 15)
  • 2016 R2 (No. 43)
  • 2016 R2 (No. 45)
  • 2016 R3 (No. 76)
  • 2017 R1 (No. 5)
  • 2017 R3 (No. 100)
The Rams got a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113) and 2016 R6 (No.177) back.

That's a lot of draft capital. The Titans still had a top 5 pick from the Rams the following year and we're speculating the Bears may well have the number 1 overall from the Panthers. In that scenario they could well get a top 5 pick again following year.
If Fields continues to shine and if the Panthers pick ends up being number 1, our number one pick from the last draft could up being:
1. DJ Moore,
2. Darnell Wright
3. 4th round pick in ‘24 (Eagles)
4. Second round pick in ‘25 (Panthers)
5. Everything we get from the first pick in ‘24:
A. ‘24 first round pick in 6-9 range
B. ‘25 first round pick
C. ‘26 first round pick
D. Young star player like Moore
E. Mixed bag of picks in round 3-5

If Young netter us what it, the haul for Eilliams should be more as he is clearly the number one guy and teams will be bidding to get him. That’s a franchise changing haul from what was one pick.
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That's beyond Laremy Tunsil territory, yep.
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The Marshall Plan
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RustinFields wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:18 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:08 pm If we do wind up with the #1 pick, and we don't need a QB, do we just draft Marvin Harrison Jr.?
depends on who lands at 2 and 3, and if they need a qb or not
Agreed. If we can move down to just 2 or 3 and still get Harrison (He may not be there at 3.) then that's the way to do it. The trick will be getting the guy with 2 to bite and trade up.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 3:08 am
RustinFields wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:18 pm

depends on who lands at 2 and 3, and if they need a qb or not
Agreed. If we can move down to just 2 or 3 and still get Harrison (He may not be there at 3.) then that's the way to do it. The trick will be getting the guy with 2 to bite and trade up.
But remember if you move past 3 what you are going to reap in return is going to grow - DRAMATICALLY!! Moving from 1 to 2 isn’t netting 2 additional first rounder and then some.

Moving to a point Harrison is likely to be gone but still walking away with Verse, Alt, Latu, Fashsnu, Coleman or whoever could be worth it depending on what the deal is.

Let’s say the Raiders are at 7 (clearly think Harrison would be gone) and they offer up 3 first, a second in ‘25, a third in ‘26 and Maxx Crosby because they want Williams and know that’s what they’d need to pay for to slide that far. I’d prefer that over knowing we get Harrison at 2 and the much lessor return.
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Disagree here Ark. We are past the “volume stage” of our rebuild. What we need now are a few superstars to take this team to the next level, and we know Poles isn’t going to sign any as FAs. If Harrison Jr is actually a Megatron caliber prospect, you do not under any circumstances let that guy pass you by for an extra couple of picks. No friggin way.
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dplank wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:50 am Disagree here Ark. We are past the “volume stage” of our rebuild. What we need now are a few superstars to take this team to the next level, and we know Poles isn’t going to sign any as FAs. If Harrison Jr is actually a Megatron caliber prospect, you do not under any circumstances let that guy pass you by for an extra couple of picks. No friggin way.
Yeah, but Maxx Crosby is absolutely a superstar. I don't know if he's enough to get me to want to pass up on MHJ though.
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The Marshall Plan
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dplank wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:50 am Disagree here Ark. We are past the “volume stage” of our rebuild. What we need now are a few superstars to take this team to the next level, and we know Poles isn’t going to sign any as FAs. If Harrison Jr is actually a Megatron caliber prospect, you do not under any circumstances let that guy pass you by for an extra couple of picks. No friggin way.
Agree with every word. The only thing I’ll add is that in 2024 we have the added benefit of another first rounder that is also going to be high up there so there are options to trade that one.

Take MHJ and run away laughing.

That second elite WR changes the whole offense.

There are still plenty of other resources to address the DL.
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dplank wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:58 pm
G08 wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:47 pm

Fuck no, we sell that pick to the highest bidder!
I wouldn’t drop below 2 though. They’d still give up a haul to ensure no one trades in front to get Williams, but I want to stay in Harrison Jr range
Dream scenario for me would be to go from 1-2, then 2-3. I think you'd still have plenty of QB-starving teams willing to give up a lot to get to 2 and take Maye or whoever the next-best thing is.
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LacertineForest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 10:04 am
dplank wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:58 pm

I wouldn’t drop below 2 though. They’d still give up a haul to ensure no one trades in front to get Williams, but I want to stay in Harrison Jr range
Dream scenario for me would be to go from 1-2, then 2-3. I think you'd still have plenty of QB-starving teams willing to give up a lot to get to 2 and take Maye or whoever the next-best thing is.
Very much so. Though that team at #2 really does need to pay a premium
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MHJ making Penn State his bitch right now early in the 4th quarter.

I'm not trying to make a meatball comment here, but there's no way I trade out of the 2 pick. I'm taking MHJ.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 2:00 pm MHJ making Penn State his bitch right now early in the 4th quarter.

I'm not trying to make a meatball comment here, but there's no way I trade out of the 2 pick. I'm taking MHJ.
Maybe to 3? Williams and Maye are likely 1 and 2 in some order...could still get a haul for a team wanting a QB. Imagine getting MHJr and that OT, plus another first in next years draft and probably another 3rd or something in this draft. Hire a qualified NFL offensive coach and roll with Fields again in 2024 since he's still cheap, and you've built this team up in such a manner that by 2025 you could plug any QB in there and they'd be successful. Maybe by then it's Bagent, or maybe even Fields as there's no way at this point he's looking at any sort of megadeal. Or we'd also still have 2 firsts and all the same ammo we have this year if we wanted to draft one.

Imagine being a rookie in THAT scenario...a bonafide OC, two bookend high 1st round pick OT's, and a WR tandem of DJ Moore/MHjr...that's a dream scenario for any rookie. That's team building IMO.
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dplank wrote: Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:32 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 2:00 pm MHJ making Penn State his bitch right now early in the 4th quarter.

I'm not trying to make a meatball comment here, but there's no way I trade out of the 2 pick. I'm taking MHJ.
Maybe to 3? Williams and Maye are likely 1 and 2 in some order...could still get a haul for a team wanting a QB. Imagine getting MHJr and that OT, plus another first in next years draft and probably another 3rd or something in this draft. Hire a qualified NFL offensive coach and roll with Fields again in 2024 since he's still cheap, and you've built this team up in such a manner that by 2025 you could plug any QB in there and they'd be successful. Maybe by then it's Bagent, or maybe even Fields as there's no way at this point he's looking at any sort of megadeal. Or we'd also still have 2 firsts and all the same ammo we have this year if we wanted to draft one.

Imagine being a rookie in THAT scenario...a bonafide OC, two bookend high 1st round pick OT's, and a WR tandem of DJ Moore/MHjr...that's a dream scenario for any rookie. That's team building IMO.
Can you make a trade down that requires the team to disclose which player they're going to take?

Not needing a QB changes the entire list of possibilities of that draft. If we had the 2 and 3 instead or the 2 and 5 and walked away with MHJ and either the Penn State LT or Alt from Notre Dame, yeah I'd have to love that draft.
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After this week's games we have the 1 via Carolina and the 5 on our own.

Just crazy that Poles is turning last year's 1 into what he's done.

The top 10 draft order as of now is:

Chicago
NYG
Arizona
New England
Chicago
Green Bay
LA
Tennessee
Denver
Atlanta

If the draft were today I think I'd just take MHJ at 1 then see where the chips fall when we're at 5. If Fashanu is there I take him otherwise look at the trade offers. It's damn near impossible to walk away from a franchise LT.
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So much (still) depends on how Fields performs from here on out. If he plays well, and the Bears are in position to draft Harrison Jr, they have to strike imo. If he lays eggs week in and week out and they are in position to take Williams or Maye? That’s likely the direction they have to go
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I don't want to fully rule out Veteran options

If Kyler Murray is borderline free?
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RichH55 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:24 pm I don't want to fully rule out Veteran options

If Kyler Murray is borderline free?
He's bringing along a pretty hefty contract with him. Although it's got a decent out after 2025 I think.
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wab wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:34 pm
RichH55 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:24 pm I don't want to fully rule out Veteran options

If Kyler Murray is borderline free?
He's bringing along a pretty hefty contract with him. Although it's got a decent out after 2025 I think.
It’s a better idea than Kirk Cousins so there’s improvement from a cognitive standpoint here.
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wab wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:34 pm
RichH55 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:24 pm I don't want to fully rule out Veteran options

If Kyler Murray is borderline free?
He's bringing along a pretty hefty contract with him. Although it's got a decent out after 2025 I think.
It looks like he would be a $37M cap hit for us in '24 for his base salary if we traded for him.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-car ... rray-29036
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wab wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:34 pm
RichH55 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:24 pm I don't want to fully rule out Veteran options

If Kyler Murray is borderline free?
He's bringing along a pretty hefty contract with him. Although it's got a decent out after 2025 I think.
I think Cards have to eat a decent chunk of it - and you could probably get them to take on some more to get him out of there

Of course - there is this:

Looks like team trading for him:
2024 - 35-37 (plus incentives?)
2025 29-30 (plus incentives)
2026. 39

Yeah - in reviewing. Cards would have to eat some more money for sure
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artbest01 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 5:37 am So much (still) depends on how Fields performs from here on out. If he plays well, and the Bears are in position to draft Harrison Jr, they have to strike imo. If he lays eggs week in and week out and they are in position to take Williams or Maye? That’s likely the direction they have to go
Yep. Although if he lays eggs all the way out, our own pick may be high enough to get MHjr AFTER taking the QB.
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Still like the trade down. If the Bears had stayed at #1 and taken Stroud, then no DJ nor Wright. I'd expect a repeat of '22 except just as many sacks or more, an anemic running game (especially from the QB), crappy WR production, etc. etc. etc. as well as one first round pick in '24 to add a blue chipper.
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Grizzled wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 1:18 pm Still like the trade down. If the Bears had stayed at #1 and taken Stroud, then no DJ nor Wright. I'd expect a repeat of '22 except just as many sacks or more, an anemic running game (especially from the QB), crappy WR production, etc. etc. etc. as well as one first round pick in '24 to add a blue chipper.
Maybe, but bear this mind (summarised from the Sun Times):
  • Stroud joined a Texans team that was 3-13-1 last season and were 11-38-1 in the previous three seasons — the worst record in the NFL during that span.
  • He's playing for a new first-time head coach in former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and has a first-time offensive coordinator in former 49ers assistant Bobby Slowik.
  • He has a nondescript receiving corps, led by veteran Robert Woods — three years past his last productive season in the NFL — former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz, unproven Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell, a third-round draft pick.
  • The offensive line has been a mess, even with a solid anchor in three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Texans are on their fourth center and fourth left guard because of injuries. Tunsil has missed three games. The Texans haven’t started the same combination in more than three consecutive games.
Stroud didn't exactly land in a great situation, but he sure is outperforming his circumstances and elevating the team. Whether he would have been able to do that in Chicago, assuming Poles would have favoured him over Young, is another question, but it's possible. We'll never know now.

Ultimately though it made no sense for Poles to move on from Fields after last season. He'd shown enough flashes during a tear down year under new coaches to hope and expect marked improvement this season. The grade made all the sense in the world and if Poles ends up with the first overall pick again next year then that just makes an already strong return for this year's first overall pick exceptional.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 3:30 pm
Grizzled wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 1:18 pm Still like the trade down. If the Bears had stayed at #1 and taken Stroud, then no DJ nor Wright. I'd expect a repeat of '22 except just as many sacks or more, an anemic running game (especially from the QB), crappy WR production, etc. etc. etc. as well as one first round pick in '24 to add a blue chipper.
Maybe, but bear this mind (summarised from the Sun Times):
  • Stroud joined a Texans team that was 3-13-1 last season and were 11-38-1 in the previous three seasons — the worst record in the NFL during that span.
  • He's playing for a new first-time head coach in former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and has a first-time offensive coordinator in former 49ers assistant Bobby Slowik.
  • He has a nondescript receiving corps, led by veteran Robert Woods — three years past his last productive season in the NFL — former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz, unproven Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell, a third-round draft pick.
  • The offensive line has been a mess, even with a solid anchor in three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Texans are on their fourth center and fourth left guard because of injuries. Tunsil has missed three games. The Texans haven’t started the same combination in more than three consecutive games.
Stroud didn't exactly land in a great situation, but he sure is outperforming his circumstances and elevating the team. Whether he would have been able to do that in Chicago, assuming Poles would have favoured him over Young, is another question, but it's possible. We'll never know now.

Ultimately though it made no sense for Poles to move on from Fields after last season. He'd shown enough flashes during a tear down year under new coaches to hope and expect marked improvement this season. The grade made all the sense in the world and if Poles ends up with the first overall pick again next year then that just makes an already strong return for this year's first overall pick exceptional.
But have to factor in that coaching on the offensive side hasn't exactly been earth shattering and who knows if Stroud would have done as well under Getsy. Slowik just might be a really good offensive mind who designs an offense which actually uses theavailable talent.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:41 am The official details of The Trade Down...

Chicago Receives:

DJ Moore
2023 #9 Overall
2023 2nd
2024 1st rounder
2025 2nd rounder

Carolina Receives

2023 #1 Overall
@The Marshall Plan , thank you so much for making this thread to discuss the greatest trade down in the history of sports.

Anyway....

Is there anybody here who DOESN'T think Poles should get a 10 / 10 on the trade down?
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 4:31 am Is there anybody here who DOESN'T think Poles should get a 10 / 10 on the trade down?
A rather odd necrobump...I hope you're pleasantly buzzed, or something, dude. :)

Not only is it a perfect trade down, but Poles had the foresight to know that Caleb is a far better prospect than Bryce Young could ever hope to be.
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While we will need to see if the Bears win a SB(s) in the next few years, largely powered by this trade, it is approaching the impact of the Walker trade for the Cowboys. The Carolina owner should be fired. And the Bears still get a #2 in 2025. Amazing.
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Grizzled wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:49 am While we will need to see if the Bears win a SB(s) in the next few years, largely powered by this trade, it is approaching the impact of the Walker trade for the Cowboys. The Carolina owner should be fired. And the Bears still get a #2 in 2025. Amazing.
The league needs a Daniel Snyder for fans of every other team in the league to be able to say "well it's bad, but it could be worse, Daniel Snyder could own my team."

The league needs to keep David Tepper around as long as they can.
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Rusty Trombagent wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 9:04 am
Grizzled wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:49 am While we will need to see if the Bears win a SB(s) in the next few years, largely powered by this trade, it is approaching the impact of the Walker trade for the Cowboys. The Carolina owner should be fired. And the Bears still get a #2 in 2025. Amazing.
The league needs a Daniel Snyder for fans of every other team in the league to be able to say "well it's bad, but it could be worse, Daniel Snyder could own my team."

The league needs to keep David Tepper around as long as they can.
I'm betting he's blocked Ryan Poles' phone number by now.
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