Page 3 of 3

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:04 pm
by The Cooler King
I did indeed misread the initial tweet. Still a slight cash frontload, but not so dramatic. The $8M is inclusive of the bonus.

Poles also has clearly favored roster bonuses, adding them both on Edwards and Edmunds. I think this structure is pointless at best and at worst will eventually be a limiting way. No real reason not to just make those year roster bonuses as signing bonuses.

Anyways I digress.

Cap details here:
https://overthecap.com/player/t-j-edwards/8427

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:26 pm
by Moriarty
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:00 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 pm

I've always thought front loading the contracts where good for the team and player. So long as he is playing at a decent level the player is likely to play out the contract as cutting them saves little money. But if they do flop the team can move on from them without major cap hits.
It's not a good thing "to move on without a major cap hit" just because you overpaid them early cash. You could have used that cash elsewhere or rolled it forward.

It's really only potentially good for teams if it allows you to negotiate a lower overall APY but giving better time value on the contract.

So if a guy takes 3/27 with upfronted money over 3/30 backloaded, probably good. If its just dead cap avoidance = bad/illogical thinking.
Yes, but if your motivation to frontload is meeting the necessary minimum instead of forcing yourself into overspending on unworthy players just to meet a minimum, that's also smart.

Also, frontloading to avoid the 'cut a player with 1-2 backloaded yrs on their deal' syndrome can also net you more comp picks, depending on your situation, which can also be smart.

Allergy to dead cap dollars isn't the only frontloading motivation.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:26 pm
by The Cooler King
Moriarty wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:26 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:00 pm

It's not a good thing "to move on without a major cap hit" just because you overpaid them early cash. You could have used that cash elsewhere or rolled it forward.

It's really only potentially good for teams if it allows you to negotiate a lower overall APY but giving better time value on the contract.

So if a guy takes 3/27 with upfronted money over 3/30 backloaded, probably good. If its just dead cap avoidance = bad/illogical thinking.
Yes, but if your motivation to frontload is meeting the necessary minimum instead of forcing yourself into overspending on unworthy players just to meet a minimum, that's also smart.

Also, frontloading to avoid the 'cut a player with 1-2 backloaded yrs on their deal' syndrome can also net you more comp picks, depending on your situation, which can also be smart.

Allergy to dead cap dollars isn't the only frontloading motivation.
Overpaying to net a couple comp picks also seems to be way over valuing comp picks. Extra picks are great and all, but there's easier ways to get them with most loopholes closed.

If we're talking frontloading as a cash minimum strategy. I mean, you really shouldn't ever be in that dire if need IMO. It's rare teams struggle to meet cap minimum. If you are it's probably just cuz you starved your team of talent one year.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:41 pm
by HurricaneBear
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:04 pm I did indeed misread the initial tweet. Still a slight cash frontload, but not so dramatic. The $8M is inclusive of the bonus.

Poles also has clearly favored roster bonuses, adding them both on Edwards and Edmunds. I think this structure is pointless at best and at worst will eventually be a limiting way. No real reason not to just make those year roster bonuses as signing bonuses.

Anyways I digress.

Cap details here:
https://overthecap.com/player/t-j-edwards/8427
Please correct me if I'm wrong because your the expert at this, isn't Cliff Stein the contract negotiator again? Is this roster bonus thing different from how he used to right contracts?

I guess what I'm getting at is it Poles or Stein, or both I guess is also an option?

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:43 pm
by Rusty Trombagent
UOK wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:06 pm idolized Mike Brown
well damn tj, i guess you're my favorite player now

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:00 pm
by The Cooler King
HurricaneBear wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:41 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:04 pm I did indeed misread the initial tweet. Still a slight cash frontload, but not so dramatic. The $8M is inclusive of the bonus.

Poles also has clearly favored roster bonuses, adding them both on Edwards and Edmunds. I think this structure is pointless at best and at worst will eventually be a limiting way. No real reason not to just make those year roster bonuses as signing bonuses.

Anyways I digress.

Cap details here:
https://overthecap.com/player/t-j-edwards/8427
Please correct me if I'm wrong because your the expert at this, isn't Cliff Stein the contract negotiator again? Is this roster bonus thing different from how he used to right contracts?

I guess what I'm getting at is it Poles or Stein, or both I guess is also an option?
I don't totally know about Stein's preferences. I know the Cutler contract used some roster bonuses in later years. But his reign was so long ago and I didn't pay attention as closely then to cap mechanics.

But even Pace at times showed different preferences early on (Glennon contract for instance) than later years. So it could just be team building cycle

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:42 am
by HisRoyalSweetness
For those who still put stock in PFF grades:
Pro Football Focus gave Edwards grades above 75.0 in both run defense and in pass coverage last year. Only three other linebackers in the NFL could say the same.

Source: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... ck-sanborn

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 am
by wab
I just read that Edwards had a dismal RAS score of 2.75. I know that RAS is only one component, but that's a pretty significant outlier for this staff.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:59 am
by The Cooler King
wab wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 am I just read that Edwards had a dismal RAS score of 2.75. I know that RAS is only one component, but that's a pretty significant outlier for this staff.
Nate Davis had a pretty average RAS too (6 something) .

After last year I was kind of waiting to see if the high RAS would become a trend or not. So certainly some credence that it was a bit of an outlier or to the extent it is a Poles trend, it's more draft focused.

Will keep taking notes.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:23 am
by Arkansasbear
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:00 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 pm

I've always thought front loading the contracts where good for the team and player. So long as he is playing at a decent level the player is likely to play out the contract as cutting them saves little money. But if they do flop the team can move on from them without major cap hits.
It's not a good thing "to move on without a major cap hit" just because you overpaid them early cash. You could have used that cash elsewhere or rolled it forward.

It's really only potentially good for teams if it allows you to negotiate a lower overall APY but giving better time value on the contract.

So if a guy takes 3/27 with upfronted money over 3/30 backloaded, probably good. If its just dead cap avoidance = bad/illogical thinking.
But I'd think when you sign a guy to a three year deal, the ultimate hope is he is going to play for three years. So if you have a contract that is 3/27 front loaded it seems the team comes out better over three years compared to a 3/30 back loaded. They saved $3M. So from a team standpoint it seems the plan should be "get them for as little as possible, with potential outs if they don't pan out." The players should have a view of "get as much guaranteed as I can, as set it up so I'm not set up to be a cap cut."

Also you say you "overpay them early cash." I don't think that necessarily true. I think when possible you cut down the signing bonus and move it base salary/roster bonus year one. If you pay a guy a $12M signing bonus with a $4M base salary and cut him after one year, the amount you pay him is no different that if you had given him an $8M signing bonus, a $4M roster bonus and a $4M base salary. Right?

PS, that's a truthful question. You seem to have a much better grasp on all the little details that I do. Big drawback of message boards is something people may think you are being "snarky" about something when you aren't. Wait why would I post that sentence, no one here ever gets snarky. :evilgrin:

I don't really understand the benefit of roster bonus vs. base salary. I guess the player gets a sum of money up front in a lumps sum as opposed to spread out over the year. I do see the benefits in later years since they did to set them shortly after the season is over. That forces the team to make a decision early on if they are going to keep, trade or cut a guy.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:38 am
by RichH55
wab wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 am I just read that Edwards had a dismal RAS score of 2.75. I know that RAS is only one component, but that's a pretty significant outlier for this staff.
Could it simply be that it matters more for Prospects or guys who haven't done much in the NFL yet?

Edwards has NFL tape out there.

Perhaps it's akin to College GPA? You might ask on that for a new hire - if the guy has 10 years in the industry and its a lateral hire? Probably dont worry about it as much

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:42 am
by Bears Whiskey Nut
wab wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 am I just read that Edwards had a dismal RAS score of 2.75. I know that RAS is only one component, but that's a pretty significant outlier for this staff.
Jack Sanborn's RAS was nothing to write home about either. But you have to drill down on the numbers, and then apply them to the position. Sanborn's 3-cone and shuttle scores were off the charts, which is why he's so quick sideline to sideline, and his closing speed in short bursts is insane.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:45 am
by Bears Whiskey Nut
My guess is two-fold. He had a bad day, and he has improved on these numbers since entering the NFL. However, if you look at the 3-cone and the shuttle, you see how these scores translate to the LB position.

Image

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am
by The Cooler King
Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:23 am
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:00 pm

It's not a good thing "to move on without a major cap hit" just because you overpaid them early cash. You could have used that cash elsewhere or rolled it forward.

It's really only potentially good for teams if it allows you to negotiate a lower overall APY but giving better time value on the contract.

So if a guy takes 3/27 with upfronted money over 3/30 backloaded, probably good. If its just dead cap avoidance = bad/illogical thinking.
But I'd think when you sign a guy to a three year deal, the ultimate hope is he is going to play for three years. So if you have a contract that is 3/27 front loaded it seems the team comes out better over three years compared to a 3/30 back loaded. They saved $3M. So from a team standpoint it seems the plan should be "get them for as little as possible, with potential outs if they don't pan out." The players should have a view of "get as much guaranteed as I can, as set it up so I'm not set up to be a cap cut."

Also you say you "overpay them early cash." I don't think that necessarily true. I think when possible you cut down the signing bonus and move it base salary/roster bonus year one. If you pay a guy a $12M signing bonus with a $4M base salary and cut him after one year, the amount you pay him is no different that if you had given him an $8M signing bonus, a $4M roster bonus and a $4M base salary. Right?

PS, that's a truthful question. You seem to have a much better grasp on all the little details that I do. Big drawback of message boards is something people may think you are being "snarky" about something when you aren't. Wait why would I post that sentence, no one here ever gets snarky. :evilgrin:

I don't really understand the benefit of roster bonus vs. base salary. I guess the player gets a sum of money up front in a lumps sum as opposed to spread out over the year. I do see the benefits in later years since they did to set them shortly after the season is over. That forces the team to make a decision early on if they are going to keep, trade or cut a guy.
No worries. And I'll try to respond to the different points without rambling or going off on tangents.

Yes on your first question about the 12 / 4 and 8 / 4 /4 example. It's same year 1 cash flows so if you cut a guy after 1year they are all functionally the same, with just slightly different timing of hits. I just think the more you can defer cap hits the better. So I'd take the 12 / 4 that has the signing bonus and smaller up front cap hits. Now granted, if you just go spend that money then your down, but that's not a contract structure issue. And maybe you need that other signing. I'd rather have the flexibility than not. On a 3 year deal, that flexibility lasts for 2 years on a 5 year deal, 4 years of added flexibility. And I see no downside in voiding every deal possibly to extend as much of the hit to the final year and keep early flexibility.

Roster bonus v base v signing bonus.

And year 1 there is very little difference to the player between signing bonus and roster bonus. A roster bonus can contain some sort of contingenct, but that can be as de-minimis as "be on roster on 5th day of league year (March 22) and often is. So pretty much the same to the player unless the contingenct is significant somehow.

To the team the signing bonus v roster bonus just backload verse up fronts the cap hit. But again, I'd always choose to defer cap hits.

Bonus v base. Again for the player mostly a time value of money thing. Though there are other minor differences between base and bonus where base may be better as it comes with certain protections a bonus does not. But money in March v spread between Sept-January is nice. For the team, it's again mostly economic (needing cash flows now, etc). Depending on the type of bonus, refer back to above.

Now in years 2 or later the roster bonuses do tend to serve another purpose. They require teams to make early decisions on a player in layer years of a contract. If the year 3 roster bonus is due March 22, a team is way less likely to leave a player in limbo throughout the offseason. It can ensure that if they are cut they don't miss the bulk of the FA market, because it will force a teams hand. You especially see this in extensions (recent examples are Carr and Rodgers) where different types of early bonuses were uses (roster or option) to help ensure relatively quick resolution of contract situations in future years.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:59 am
by The Cooler King
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:45 am My guess is two-fold. He had a bad day, and he has improved on these numbers since entering the NFL. However, if you look at the 3-cone and the shuttle, you see how these scores translate to the LB position.

Image
Eh, guys rarely get more athletic. Some just do more with less. And the shuttle/cone certainly point to an athletic skill set that he is able to leverage to its max ability.

I think the RAS question is just so different when evaluating college to pros. RAS gives some hard measurables in a very uncertain process in jumping from amateur to pro, where the competition level can vary greatly.

Once a guy is proven though at the NFL level, why do I care much about 4 year old testing data? Hell, if anything, to the extent a GM wants athletic data- next gen stats can give him real time player tracking data.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:10 pm
by IE
wab wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 am I just read that Edwards had a dismal RAS score of 2.75. I know that RAS is only one component, but that's a pretty significant outlier for this staff.
If you read Edwards' draft profile it is the tale of an NFL ST-er and maybe journeyman who plays for a few years & then moves on. His RAS supports this.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/t.j.-edwa ... db2aafad56

Flash-foward to 2022 and PFF's grades, and the guy is an absolute work horse (#4 in total snaps) and very well-rounded LB (#6 LB overall, out of 81 - which is sort of a "wow").

By well rounded I mean he's #16 at Rush D, #8 in Pass Ruch and #9 in Coverage. In other words, as the world moves from paper and projections to playing and performance... TJ Edwards brings it. This seems like an exceptional value pickup, and if folks don't want to consider TJ Edwards a blue chipper due to his paper and not his performance... I'll agree to disagree. He's earned the blue chip label. Nobody earns that designation at the combine or on pro days - they earn it on the field.

It IS a departure from most of what Poles has explicitly said he wants (RAS guys). But in spite of their love for measurables Poles DID offer a very big caveat when he explained their evaluation process. He made a point to emphasizing that if a guy jumps out as simply being an exceptional football player, it can supercede their other criteria. So TJ actually IS a "Poles guy" in every sense, based on his own description of what they value.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:24 pm
by HisRoyalSweetness
"Experts'" grades on the TJ Edwards signing:
  • ESPN: A
  • Pro Football Focus: A+
  • The Athletic: A
  • CBS Sports: B
  • Sporting News: A
  • Sports Illustrated: B+
  • Bleacher Report: A
  • Walter Football: A+
  • Bears Wire: A
Further details: https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/be ... ert-picks/

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 9:36 am
by crueltyabc

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:26 am
by Otis Day
Listen to the Hoge and Jahns podcast about the signing of him and Edmunds. Good stuff. Writers from their respective cities talking about them. Better insight, good podcast.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:20 am
by Yogi da Bear
Roster bonus v. signing bonus: Could it be that we're using roster bonus v. signing bonus to make sure we hit the salary cap minimums? Could it just be that simple?

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 9:56 pm
by RichH55
Yogi da Bear wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:20 am Roster bonus v. signing bonus: Could it be that we're using roster bonus v. signing bonus to make sure we hit the salary cap minimums? Could it just be that simple?
Doubtful

Assuming the Roster Bonus is for this year - no different in terms of Cash Outlays (and thats the only minimum you have to worry about)

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:34 pm
by The Cooler King
Yogi da Bear wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:20 am Roster bonus v. signing bonus: Could it be that we're using roster bonus v. signing bonus to make sure we hit the salary cap minimums? Could it just be that simple?
Theres no actual salary cap minimum. Just cash, which for cash minimum purposes really should be the same.

The real big nuance is that signing bonuses can't be contingent on anything whereas if it contains any contingency its gonna be a roster bonus (unless it meets some other criteria of signing bonus - there's like 12 different criteria and if it meets only one, its a signing bonus).

In this case, AFAIK the only contingency was they had to be on the roster as of the specified date which was like 3 days after they signed, so duh. Unless some other contingency is tied to it, which isn't being reported on the various sites, then it was done, I presume, just to frontload the cap hit and avoid down the road dead caps charges.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:50 pm
by HisRoyalSweetness

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:43 pm
by dplank
How cool is that?! My 10 year old self is super jealous!!

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2023 6:09 pm
by HisRoyalSweetness
He's not the only local lad either of course and it's no coincidence...


It means more

Bears GM Ryan Poles said that his decision to add Chicago-area natives via free agency — linebacker T.J. Edwards is from Lake Villa and tight end Robert Tonyan is from McHenry — was by design.

“There’s something to it for me,” Poles said. “I think you have pride in your local team that you grew up watching, you knew what this club meant to the city and you saw some good times and some good players.

“I think you’re a little bit more motivated to perform at a high level and also lead because you’ve seen guys do it at a high level before you.”

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... ield-build

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:28 am
by wab
Great - I guess you can pencil in Skoronski to the Bears.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:02 am
by The Cooler King
wab wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:28 am Great - I guess you can pencil in Skoronski to the Bears.
Packers fan, doesn't count.

Re: Bears to sign LB TJ Edwards to 3yr, $19.5M deal

Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:54 am
by RichH55
The Cooler King wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:02 am
wab wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:28 am Great - I guess you can pencil in Skoronski to the Bears.
Packers fan, doesn't count.
Also a Trex fan (The animal not the band)