Montgomery headed to Detroit

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I'm sorry - did Monty not have an opportunity to break long runs? So now I'm wrong for not holding Juice's explosive plays against him?

No, you're wrong for dismissing Yogi's stats on the grounds that 'attempts skew the data' and then refusing to acknowledge that a couple of long runs skew your favoured ypc stat. It's a hypocritical stance to take.

Data should be considered impartially and within context, not cherry-picked in order to justify a desired conclusion which is what you're doing by continually citing Herbert's ypc.

As for explosive runs, aren't they akin to INTs for DBs in that they vary from year to year? In 2020 Monty had 5 runs over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards and in 2021 he again had 5 over 20 yards with 1 over 40 yards. This past season he only had 2 over 20 yards.

For context, Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing this year and had 7 runs over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards. The previous year he only had 2 over 20 yards, the year before that it was 3 over 20 yards and in his rookie year he had 8 over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards.

There is no doubt that Herbert has hit longer runs at a higher rate per carry than Monty, but there's no guarantee that will continue. I hope it does.

Ultimately everyone here acknowledges that Monty wasn't a big home run hitter, but some still see value in him for his all-round game and ability to grind out tough yards and will be interested to see what he can do behind a different offensive line given the deficiencies in those that he's played behind thus far in his career and with a competent passing game. For $6m a year it would have been nice to have found out with the Bears, but Poles decided otherwise.

[Yogi da Bear]

It's because of stances like this that I hope Monty absolutely tears us up next year. It's time that people realize what he could do with actual blocking.

...So, I guess we will see.

That's simply nuts.

[IE]

I'm sorry - did Monty not have an opportunity to break long runs? So now I'm wrong for not holding Juice's explosive plays against him?

No, you're wrong for dismissing Yogi's stats on the grounds that 'attempts skew the data' and then refusing to acknowledge that a couple of long runs skew your favoured ypc stat. It's a hypocritical stance to take.

Data should be considered impartially and within context, not cherry-picked in order to justify a desired conclusion which is what you're doing by continually citing Herbert's ypc.

As for explosive runs, aren't they akin to INTs for DBs in that they vary from year to year? In 2020 Monty had 5 runs over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards and in 2021 he again had 5 over 20 yards with 1 over 40 yards. This past season he only had 2 over 20 yards.

For context, Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing this year and had 7 runs over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards. The previous year he only had 2 over 20 yards, the year before that it was 3 over 20 yards and in his rookie year he had 8 over 20 yards with 2 over 40 yards.

There is no doubt that Herbert has hit longer runs at a higher rate per carry than Monty, but there's no guarantee that will continue. I hope it does.

Ultimately everyone here acknowledges that Monty wasn't a big home run hitter, but some still see value in him for his all-round game and ability to grind out tough yards and will be interested to see what he can do behind a different offensive line given the deficiencies in those that he's played behind thus far in his career and with a competent passing game. For $6m a year it would have been nice to have found out with the Bears, but Poles decided otherwise.

As the kids are saying these days... "nuts!" The Oline excuse is ridiculous. We eliminate common variables on both sides of the equation.

We've gone toe to toe on stats before -and I'm always the one doing the cherry picking accusation and complaining about abusive use of "averages". Cherry picking is calling Monty better because on some small number of x yard runs for one split he averaged 1 more yard. Averages are for charlatans. Monty has 5X more attempts at 1-3 yards and averages .5 yards more - and we're going to hang our hat on that small difference? No. It's a bad sample.

Splits can be informative and provide visibility into how a guy might do in a given situation. But there is a high chance of variability in splits, and small numbers. IF I was cherry picking Juice's stats, I would say something like he averages 10 yards on first and second down combined - so short yardage stats don't matter with him. Which is also silly.

You and I have had this discussion before. When I'm talking about ypc I'm NOT talking about individual runs or getting into raw counts of "runs over 20" and such - I'm talking about long-term comprehensive performance as a reliable indicator - but not averages. It is the MEDIAN that tells you what you should expect when a given guy plays, based on their median performance. Monty's career median yards per carry is well under 4... it is like 3.88 per game. Juice's is OVER 5.5 in games where he's had more than 4 carries. That means every time each of those guys plays in a game, THAT is what you should expect as the most common outcome in terms of ypc. Not two games where he had a long run - it is all games. Granted, Juice has a smaller sample overall. But it is plenty large enough to establish median stats and see who consistently delivers, or on a percentage basis. And the trends mattter too ... Juice's ypc go up with more carries.

Let's break it down:

Monty: In 4 years, Monty has only 8 games out of 60 averaging over 5 ypc. That's only 13%. He has only 28 out of 60 over 4 ypc ... less than 50%! That means he has 30 games averaging UNDER 4 ypc (50%!). If you look at who survives & is considered "good" in the NFL over time, 4ypc is sort of the Mendoza Line for respectable performance. Monty is under.

Juice: Running in the same offense during arguably the two worst OL years, Juice already has 12 games over 5 ypc in two years (almost 50%!) - and encouragingly, those tend to be the ones where he has gotten MORE carries. He has 16 over 4 ypc, out of about 25 (~64%). It is respectable - but again the more he gets the better he generally does. Juice has only ONE game with a heavy load where he was under 4ypc (3.13 on 23 carries). Better performance with more sample is normally encouraging - it is reversion to a higher mean.

Sample good plays and outliers indeed are not reliable predictors of performance. But medians sure are. And that is where it gets ugly for Monty.

The new Bear regime is analytics and performance-driven. So it is not surprising at all that they have hashed these sorts of numbers and draw the conclusions they clearly have (no matter how much credit a guy gets for being a "team guy" or "tough"). I believe it is possible that Poles offered Monty backup RB money in the $3-4MM range and said "that's where we are".

Jamaal Williams scored a thousand TDs last year, and got $4MM/year yesterday. Lions fans were celebrating the Monty signing - but I bet they aren't now! Lions fans are going to go apeshit paying Monty 50% more for less. Right now they're happy, but the median stats should be setting their expectations that they're basically just replacing Williams but with fewer TDs and paying a lot more.

[Yogi da Bear]

So tell me IE, if Herbert is so much better than Monty, how do explain the fact that David started every game he was healthy (even many he wasn't completely so) and the coaches gave him twice as many carries as Herbert and more than three times the targeted passes?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

As the kids are saying these days... "nuts!" The Oline excuse is ridiculous. We eliminate common variables on both sides of the equation.

We've gone toe to toe on stats before -and I'm always the one doing the cherry picking accusation and complaining about abusive use of "averages". Cherry picking is calling Monty better because on some small number of x yard runs for one split he averaged 1 more yard. Averages are for charlatans. Monty has 5X more attempts at 1-3 yards and averages .5 yards more - and we're going to hang our hat on that small difference? No. It's a bad sample.

Yogi didn't say Monty was better, he simply pointed out that Monty was used more much more frequently in short-yardage situations when a run was obvious than Herbert was when you asked him for a reason why Herbert's average ypc was so much higher. The fact that Monty's success rate was higher than Herbert's in those situations is an indication of why he was used more frequently.

That Herbert and Monty complemented each other is why I liked them as a combo and would have preferred to keep them together given Monty's relatively modest price tag. Poles has effectively replaced Monty with Freeman, who's a bruising type runner, and Homer, who is apparently good in pass pro and as a receiver for much the same cost. I'm expecting to see Herbert as the primary first and second down back, Freeman coming on for short yardage situations and Homer on 3rd and long and other obvious passing situations. It will be interesting to see whether that is the case and how each performs.

You and I have had this discussion before. When I'm talking about ypc I'm NOT talking about individual runs or getting into raw counts of "runs over 20" and such - I'm talking about long-term comprehensive performance as a reliable indicator - but not averages. It is the MEDIAN that tells you what you should expect when a given guy plays, based on their median performance. Monty's career median yards per carry is well under 4... it is like 3.88 per game. Juice's is OVER 5.5 in games where he's had more than 4 carries. That means every time each of those guys plays in a game, THAT is what you should expect as the most common outcome in terms of ypc. Not two games where he had a long run - it is all games. Granted, Juice has a smaller sample overall. But it is plenty large enough to establish median stats and see who consistently delivers, or on a percentage basis. And the trends mattter too ... Juice's ypc go up with more carries.

Let's break it down:

Monty: In 4 years, Monty has only 8 games out of 60 averaging over 5 ypc. That's only 13%. He has only 28 out of 60 over 4 ypc ... less than 50%! That means he has 30 games averaging UNDER 4 ypc (50%!). If you look at who survives & is considered "good" in the NFL over time, 4ypc is sort of the Mendoza Line for respectable performance. Monty is under.

Juice: Running in the same offense during arguably the two worst OL years, Juice already has 12 games over 5 ypc in two years (almost 50%!) - and encouragingly, those tend to be the ones where he has gotten MORE carries. He has 16 over 4 ypc, out of about 25 (~64%). It is respectable - but again the more he gets the better he generally does. Juice has only ONE game with a heavy load where he was under 4ypc (3.13 on 23 carries). Better performance with more sample is normally encouraging - it is reversion to a higher mean.

Sample good plays and outliers indeed are not reliable predictors of performance. But medians sure are. And that is where it gets ugly for Monty.

Now this is a much more interesting set of statistics than the 5.7ypc that you kept brought up before to argue that Herbert was the better runner, which of course is a mean average and means can be skewed by a small number of outliers.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

David Montgomery 'salivating' at potential of Lions offense

David Montgomery... told reporters he’s excited at the prospect of joining the NFL’s No. 4-ranked offense and the potential the unit has in 2023.

“You salivate a little bit,” Montgomery said regarding the Lions offense. “You get three Pro Bowlers in an offensive line (Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson, Penei Sewell), and them having high expectations for themselves and me having high expectations for myself, it’ll be really good. … Being able to play with (D’Andre) Swift will be nice. I came from a great running back room and I’m walking right back into one.”
...

Montgomery also adds a dimension to the Lions offense that Williams didn’t — a receiving threat out of the backfield. The 25-year-old has more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage each of his four years, and he’s totaled 155 receptions, 1,240 yards and four touchdowns.

“Jamaal is a great player, highly decorated player; I’m not here to be him,” Montgomery said. “I’m here to be me. I know I can bring a lot to the table. I don’t want to be labeled as just, ‘He can do this for a team or for the offense.’ I want to be able to do everything, whatever coach (Dan) Campbell asks me to do.”

Full article: https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles ... 2_38593254

Also embedded in the article is this tweet:



Looks like Campbell may have had his eye on Monty for a while.

As much as I want the Bears new RBs to tear it up I'm still interested to see how Monty does for another team.