Offensive Linemen trends & data

[UOK]

I had some time to kill between meetings and threw this together for whatever it may be worth to you. This is a set of data that shows the draft position of offensive linemen who have a Pro Bowl on their resume.

GS = Games Started
PB = Pro Bowl
AP = All Pro (1st or 2nd team)

For players who started over or nearly 100 games, I looked at their careers and there were some trends:

• Most of the time they never left the franchise that drafted them
• ...unless they were a Kansas City Chief, which seems to be cool with letting linemen walk
• ...or they approached/exceeded 30 years of age

There were a few outliers. Laremy Tunsil and Laken Tomlinson were traded at their peaks. Larry Warford left the Lions after his rookie contract because they were still a shitshow.

Trai Turner was traded after a really nice tenure in Carolina, but injuries have crippled his career, so he's been bouncing around the league. Ryan Jensen was drafted as a tackle before converting to center and moving on to the Bucs where he's been ever since.

Obviously how this impacts the Bears in the 2023 NFL Draft is trivial, but it's food for thought. The trend of this seems to be that your best bet is to draft your offensive linemen in round 1, because they have an extremely good return on investment compared to other rounds.

----

ROUND 1

Eric Fisher (r1, p1) - 128 GS, 2x PB (KC until he was 30)
Lane Johnson (r1, p4) - 127 GS, 4x PB, 3x AP (Philly his whole career)
Trent Wiliams (r1, p4) - 162 GS, 10x PB, 3x AP (Washington until he was 32)
Brandon Scherff (r1, p5) - 106 GS, 5x PB, 1x AP (Washington until he was 31)
Quenton Nelson (r1, p6) - 78 GS, 5x PB, 4x AP
Ronnie Stanley (r1, p6) - 74 GS, 1x PB, 1x AP
Tyron Smith (r1, p9) - 148 GS, 8x PB, 4x AP (Dallas his entire career)
Laremy Tunsil (r1, p13) - 94 GS, 3x PB (Dolphins, Texans during prime)
Tristan Wirfs (r1, p13) - 46 GS, 2x PB, 2x AP
Andrus Peat (r1, p13) - 90 GS, 3x PB
Rashawn Slater (r1, p13) - 19 GS, 1x PB, 1x AP
Chris Lindstrom (r1, p14) - 55 GS, 1x PB, 1x AP
Zack Martin (r1, p16) - 137 GS, 8x PB, 6x AP (Dallas his entire career)
Ryan Kelly (r1, p18) - 97 GS, 3x PB, 1x AP (Indy his entire career)
Maurkice Pouncey (r1, p18) - 134 GS, 9x PB, 5x AP
Frank Ragnow (r1, p20) - 65 GS, 2x PB, 1x AP
Alex Mack (r1, p21) - 196 GS, 7x PB, 3x AP (Cleveland until he was 31)
DJ Humphries (r1, p24) - 83 GS, 1x PB
David DeCastro (r1, p24) - 124 GS, 6x PB, 3x AP (Pittsburgh his whole career)
Duane Brown (r1, p26) - 215 GS, 5x PB, 3x AP (Houston until he was 32)
Laken Tomlinson (r1, p28) - 121 GS, 1x PB (Lions, 49ers during prime)
Travis Frederick (r1, p31) - 96 GS, 3x AP (Dallas his entire career)

----

ROUND 2

Rodger Saffold (r2, p33) - 173 GS, 2x PB, 1x AP (Rams until he was 31)
Joel Bitonio (r2, p35) - 129 GS, 5x PB, 5x AP (Cleveland his entire career)
Landon Dickerson (r2, p37) - 30 GS, 1x PB
Elgton Jenkins (r2, p44) - 53 GS, 2x PB
Mitch Morse (r2, p49) - 109 GS, 1x PB (Chiefs, Bills during prime)
Rodney Hudson (r2, p55) - 143 GS, 3x PB, 1x AP (Chiefs, Raiders during prime)
Ali Marpet (r2, p61) - 101 GS, 1x PB (Tampa his entire career)
Brian O'Neill (r2, p62) - 75 GS, 1x PB
Creed Humphrey (r2, p63) - 34 GS, 1x PB, 1x AP
Dion Dawkins (r2, p63) - 89 GS, 2x PB (Buffalo his entire career)

----

ROUND 3

Larry Warford (r3, p65) - 101 GS, 3x PB (Lions, Saints during prime)
Jonah Jackson (r3, p75) - 45 GS, 1x PB
Terron Armstead (r3, p75) - 106 GS, 4x PB, 1x AP (New Orleans until he was 31)
Joe Thuney (r3, p78) - 112 GS, 1x PB, 2x AP (Patriots until he was 29)
Orlando Brown (r3, p83) - 75 GS, 4x PB
Marshal Yanda (r3, p86) - 166 GS, 8x PB, 7x AP (Baltimore his entire career)
Trai Turner (r3, p92) - 118 GS, 5x PB (Panthers until 27, bounced since then)

----

ROUND 4

David Bakhtiari (r4,p109) - 130 GS, 3x PB, 5x AP (Green Bay his entire career)

----

ROUND 5

Wyatt Teller (r5, p166) - 59 GS, 2x PB, 2x AP
Corey Linsley (r5, p161) - 129 GS, 1x PB, 2x AP (Green Bay until he was 30)

----

ROUND 6

Jason Kelce (r6, p191) - 176 GS, 6x PB, 5x AP (Philly his entire career)
Ryan Jensen (r6, p203) - 90 GS, 1x PB (Ravens, Bucs during prime)

----

ROUND 7

Trent Brownj (r7, p244) 85 GS, 1x PB

[Moriarty]

Interesting.

Rather than using 1+ PBs as the filter, I'd be interested in seeing the round distribution of OTs drafted maybe 2010-2016 with say 72 or more starts (at T)

Meaning we're looking at "good enough to be a constant starter there" rather than "good enough to make a Pro Bowl"
I feel like it would skew a little more to lower rounds, but I wonder how much (guessing fairly little).

[dplank]

This list makes logical sense IMO. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that while they are willing to let OL walk in FA, they are also super aggressive in signing new ones! The strategy doesn't work unless you do both things. I really want Poles to up his game and get a little more aggressive, he let some good opportunities go by again, as he did last year, in the name of frugalness. We only have 1 first round pick, but we need first round talent at OL, DE, and DT.

[UOK]

This list makes logical sense IMO. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that while they are willing to let OL walk in FA, they are also super aggressive in signing new ones! The strategy doesn't work unless you do both things. I really want Poles to up his game and get a little more aggressive, he let some good opportunities go by again, as he did last year, in the name of frugalness. We only have 1 first round pick, but we need first round talent at OL, DE, and DT.

I heard a similar thing about the Eagles and linebackers. I guess it's an institutional thing that they don't extent linebackers to big money contracts. Just not how they do business.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I have a new theory and it could be an exciting outcome.

We all know how well B Jones has done since being a 5th round draft last year.
Poles brought in Leatherwood - a player who has been described as having incredible physical traits.
We have Teven Jenkins - a very highly rated OT in college.
We have Larry Borom who had a good rookie season and struggled to adapt to the new regime.
I wonder whether the coaches have been working hard with Leatherwood, Borom and Jenkins and I wonder if they have seen something which makes them think they already have their man at RT? Look at BJones progression from Rookie to starting every snap at LT. Why can they not achieve similar results with Leatherwood or Borom?

I think we’re going to draft a Center, hopefully JMS.
So we’d have BJones LT, JMS C, Jenkins RG, Leatherwood/Borom RT all on rookie contracts.
This is building through the draft.

[karhu]

This list makes logical sense IMO. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that while they are willing to let OL walk in FA, they are also super aggressive in signing new ones! The strategy doesn't work unless you do both things. I really want Poles to up his game and get a little more aggressive, he let some good opportunities go by again, as he did last year, in the name of frugalness. We only have 1 first round pick, but we need first round talent at OL, DE, and DT.

When KC's guys walk, they walk onto other teams. When our guys walk, they walk away. For all we don't know, it's pretty clear that Poles is looking to change that...which he can't by signing a bunch of third-contract vets.

[wab]

I think I agree with DD - the plan might be to coach up someone at RT. Whether that's Leatherwood, Jenkins, Borom, or Diesch...who knows. Leatherwood and Jenkins were much more highly regarded than Jones. Diesch was pretty highly thought of in the draft cycle too.

I do think they will draft someone too.

I've been thinking about Skoronski and I'd be really disappointed if they took him at 9 to be a RT. If they took him at 9 to be their center for the next 15 years...I could maybe get on board with that.

[Arkansasbear]

I think I agree with DD - the plan might be to coach up someone at RT. Whether that's Leatherwood, Jenkins, Borom, or Diesch...who knows. Leatherwood and Jenkins were much more highly regarded than Jones. Diesch was pretty highly thought of in the draft cycle too.

I do think they will draft someone too.

I've been thinking about Skoronski and I'd be really disappointed if they took him at 9 to be a RT. If they took him at 9 to be their center for the next 15 years...I could maybe get on board with that.

Heck I'd forgotten all about Leatherwood. He really could be the wildcard on the OL.

[thunderspirit]

Heck I'd forgotten all about Leatherwood.

His play last year was rather forgettable, so this is understandable.

[RichH55]

This list makes logical sense IMO. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that while they are willing to let OL walk in FA, they are also super aggressive in signing new ones! The strategy doesn't work unless you do both things. I really want Poles to up his game and get a little more aggressive, he let some good opportunities go by again, as he did last year, in the name of frugalness. We only have 1 first round pick, but we need first round talent at OL, DE, and DT.

If only we had multiple 2nds a high 3rd and then multiple high picks next year.

Darn. Fire Poles!!!!

[RichH55]

Heck I'd forgotten all about Leatherwood.

His play last year was rather forgettable, so this is understandable.

Yeah - anything you get out of him is gravy.

Worthwhile risk - doubtful reward

[UOK]

Interesting.

Rather than using 1+ PBs as the filter, I'd be interested in seeing the round distribution of OTs drafted maybe 2010-2016 with say 72 or more starts (at T)

Meaning we're looking at "good enough to be a constant starter there" rather than "good enough to make a Pro Bowl"
I feel like it would skew a little more to lower rounds, but I wonder how much (guessing fairly little).

Ask and ye shall receive. Red/bold indicates 60+ NFL starts.

[RichH55]

This list makes logical sense IMO. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that while they are willing to let OL walk in FA, they are also super aggressive in signing new ones! The strategy doesn't work unless you do both things. I really want Poles to up his game and get a little more aggressive, he let some good opportunities go by again, as he did last year, in the name of frugalness. We only have 1 first round pick, but we need first round talent at OL, DE, and DT.

I heard a similar thing about the Eagles and linebackers. I guess it's an institutional thing that they don't extent linebackers to big money contracts. Just not how they do business.

Been that way in Philly for a long while

[RichH55]

UOK - my take away there

There is a lot of crummy OL in the NFL

[wab]

UOK - my take away there

There is a lot of crummy OL in the NFL

Man…there really is.

[Arkansasbear]

UOK - my take away there

There is a lot of crummy OL in the NFL

Man…there really is.

The other take away appears to be that if you want a decent shot at landing a starting OT, you better get them in the first two rounds. After that it's 90%???? crummy.

[BreadNCircuses]

FWIW -- https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... -back-to-c

"The Bears have a lot to figure out still with their offensive line, but it looks like a plan is taking shape that would have newcomer Nate Davis at left guard and shift Cody Whitehair to center.

General manager Ryan Poles volunteered that possibility when discussing Davis, who signed a three-year, $30 million deal. Davis played right guard for the Titans the last four seasons, but said he’d be fine with moving to the left side.

“We’re going to put the best five up there,” Poles said. “There’s some flexibility and some conversations where Cody could work some center. He’s got almost 4,000 snaps there [and] had some good seasons there. So we’re going to move it around a little bit.”"

Also, looks like Brown was never a target for the Bears this year.

"One of the Bears’ options was to pursue four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown in free agency. Not only is a proven talent, but he was available below his projected market value and signed with the Bengals for four years, $64 million.

Poles, who was with Brown in Kansas City in 2021, said he wasn’t a fit because of “scheme match.” The Bears are looking for leaner, more athletic players at left tackle."

[RichH55]

Man…there really is.

The other take away appears to be that if you want a decent shot at landing a starting OT, you better get them in the first two rounds. After that it's 90%???? crummy.

There is always Wab's guy Leno!

(And Jordan Maliata - but that is an outlier on an outlier)

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

UOK - my take away there

There is a lot of crummy OL in the NFL

Man…there really is.

And I think that’s the point.
Why pay a chunk of money for say Orlando Brown - who wants to be a LT - when you have a rookie who is thriving and improving at LT and you need a RT.
Are there any stud RTs in FA or the draft?
I’d have to say “no not really”.
So maybe Poles thinks “we can get the same results or similar out of the guys we already have and they are all improving young players not vets who may or may not have peaked”.

Plus isn’t it easier to mould a rookie/ young player into scheme than a vet who has been playing elsewhere?

Leatherwood could be the man, he’s had half a year plus will have a full off season. He has the physical traits - we know that. He just needs coaching and improving footwork/technique.
That’s poles type of player - physically unique but needs coaching up.
Why waste a draft pick on a similar type of player when we have one already training with us?

If he didn’t have any time for Leatherwood, he would have cut him.

[Middleguard]

All Pro 1st & 2nd team OL *. Notice the stabity of the players: most with their 1st team (data isn't presented but 65% of players first selected while on their 2nd contract were still with the same team), and most only played one position.

pos, picked (lo<median<hi), exp (lo<median<hi), teams (lo<mean<hi), prior pos (lo<mean<hi)
LT, 4<20<109, 1<4<9, 1=1=1, 1<1.1<2 (1RT)
RG, 5<24<166, 1<4<6, 1<1.2<2, 1<1.2<2 (1LG 1RT)
RT, 4<32<138, 1<3<6, 1<1.1<2, 1=1=1
LG, 6<35<257, 1<4<8, 1<1.2<2, 1<1.4<3 (1LT-RG 1RT 1RG)
C, 18<55<191, 1<5<9, 1<1.1<2, 1=1=1

* My plan had been to go backwards from 2022 to 2016 noting every different 1st and 2nd team AllPro OL (but data for repeats is from first year selected). Next check which position had the most names (least duplications) and was surprised when it was LT at 9. Then continue backwards until I had the same number at every position. Unfortunately, prior to 2016, the selection didn't differentiate between sides, so all tackles selected turned out to be LTs. I went back to 2011 and still hadn't found another RT, so stopped with the 7 I had by 2016.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Thanks for putting this together UOK. Really appreciate it. Good info.

Right now I think I am of the mind that they try and create the T and G positions out of who they have on the roster, and throw a 4th round pick in there as well. The Bears picked up some really good athletic talent on the OL last year, that they are just sitting on, coaching them up, and see who shakes out. I think Diesch or Leatherwood could find positions on this line. Diesch was a shrewd grab by Poles. He is a raw, hyper-athletic, run blocking monster. I could see a scenario where we try;

Jones - Davis - Whitehair - Jenkins - Diesch

[Yogi da Bear]

Interesting.

Rather than using 1+ PBs as the filter, I'd be interested in seeing the round distribution of OTs drafted maybe 2010-2016 with say 72 or more starts (at T)

Meaning we're looking at "good enough to be a constant starter there" rather than "good enough to make a Pro Bowl"
I feel like it would skew a little more to lower rounds, but I wonder how much (guessing fairly little).

Ask and ye shall receive. Red/bold indicates 60+ NFL starts.

What's telling to me from those charts is how many fifth round draft picks and below that the Bears had start for them. I count three: Webb, Mills, and Leno (two seventh rounders) with a total of 288 starts. Plus a fourth rounder (Bobbie Massie) started for us for years. I see only one pick by us in the first three rounds (Carimi). Kind of helps you understand why DP is so adamant to devote assets to the offensive line doesn't it.

[Arkansasbear]

I found this:

"Offensive Line

Let's look at one of our biggest areas to fix. Offensive line is typically one of the safest positions to draft because the success rate is greater than almost all the other positions.
Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.
The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.
On average, 5 linemen are drafted in the first round. The first and second rounds, on average, draft the fewest offensive linemen.
If you were ranking rounds by the numbers drafted it would run 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd

For all of you pro offensive line with the first pick, the low "bust" factor plays to your advantage. Although it can be countered that there is a pretty high success rate later on in comparison with other positions. This would support the argument that you can wait some and still have a good chance of success. For the Chiefs, the last three years have seen the Chiefs select two OL each draft. Dorsey so far has drafted four OL, with three coming in the sixth round."

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/2 ... t-by-round

It's a pretty good read. OL tend to have the highest success rate and WR the lowest. They use a different criteria of being a starter for at least half of their career. I think it is a fair assessment that if a guys is a starter in the NFL for at least half their career they must be decent, but it does put the Sam Mustephiers of the world on the "success list."

I also came across https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/201 ... d67ab97495 which had some shocking information in it. Of all the players in the NFL, the round with the largest percentage is players taken in the first round (they make up 29.9% of the NFL, which makes since as they should come in with the most talent), this is followed by those taken in the second round (17.5%, again that make since). But the next group is UDFA who are 13.6% of the NFL.

I guess my take on the UDFA would be that each year only 32ish (you have all the comp picks coming in so it changes each year) players taken in each round, but each team averages maybe 15 UDFA they bring in (so about 350 players or ten times that from a given round). So you have a much bigger pool to find talent. Also, the UDFA get to pick their team to a limited decree. So a UDFA WR who would have chosen to go the Bears last year, likely would have had a better shot at making the roster and fighting to become a starter at some point compared to the 7th round WR who was drafted by Cincy and was put into a stacked WR room.

[Yogi da Bear]

Heavy sigh. I see that 83% first round success rate and think of Gabe Carimi and Chrissie Williams. Of course, there's Kyle Long, but there's also Stan Thomas and Marc Colombo too. What is that, 25% success rate? Yikes.

[Arkansasbear]

Heavy sigh. I see that 83% first round success rate and think of Gabe Carimi and Chrissie Williams. Of course, there's Kyle Long, but there's also Stan Thomas and Marc Colombo too. What is that, 25% success rate? Yikes.

Don't want to make you feel worse, but it's 20% as far as the Bears are concerned. Colombo didnt' succeed until he left. A move I wasn't in favor in then back then.

[Yogi da Bear]

Thanks for the correction Ark. I actually was including Colombo in my calculations. I just miss divided. Oops. My bad.

[malk]

Interesting list. It makes me wonder how much opportunity comes into it. It looks like you don't get so many players in the lower rounds who have, say 10-30 starts, i.e. guys who have been given a shot and then failed. There could be a decent amount of talent down there that doesn't doesn't get the opportunity at all. Or I could just be flat out wrong lol.

Either way I wish the NFL had a minor league...

[UOK]

Interesting list. It makes me wonder how much opportunity comes into it. It looks like you don't get so many players in the lower rounds who have, say 10-30 starts, i.e. guys who have been given a shot and then failed. There could be a decent amount of talent down there that doesn't doesn't get the opportunity at all. Or I could just be flat out wrong lol.

Either way I wish the NFL had a minor league...

They do! It's called the XFL, and they're in session.

It's not a traditional minor league, but it's as much of one as the NFL has had since NFL Europe. The XFL and NFL have an agreement in place where the XFL will not be a feeder league, but as more of a testing ground for rules and such. That said, if guys can have success in the XFL, they could potentially sign on with NFL teams later.

[Moriarty]

Interesting list. It makes me wonder how much opportunity comes into it. It looks like you don't get so many players in the lower rounds who have, say 10-30 starts, i.e. guys who have been given a shot and then failed. There could be a decent amount of talent down there that doesn't doesn't get the opportunity at all. Or I could just be flat out wrong lol.

Either way I wish the NFL had a minor league...

They do! It's called the XFL, and they're in session.

It's not a traditional minor league, but it's as much of one as the NFL has had since NFL Europe. The XFL and NFL have an agreement in place where the XFL will not be a feeder league, but as more of a testing ground for rules and such. That said, if guys can have success in the XFL, they could potentially sign on with NFL teams later.

I watched Paxton Lynch in action for a few plays!

His benching led him to be the first quarterback to ever be benched in the NFL, CFL, USFL, and XFL.

[malk]

Interesting list. It makes me wonder how much opportunity comes into it. It looks like you don't get so many players in the lower rounds who have, say 10-30 starts, i.e. guys who have been given a shot and then failed. There could be a decent amount of talent down there that doesn't doesn't get the opportunity at all. Or I could just be flat out wrong lol.

Either way I wish the NFL had a minor league...

They do! It's called the XFL, and they're in session.

It's not a traditional minor league, but it's as much of one as the NFL has had since NFL Europe. The XFL and NFL have an agreement in place where the XFL will not be a feeder league, but as more of a testing ground for rules and such. That said, if guys can have success in the XFL, they could potentially sign on with NFL teams later.

Does, or could/will, the XFL work as a minor league though? I'm totally clueless about this admittedly by my guess is that guys burried on depth charts aren't getting much meaningful practice because of how limited snaps need to be nowadays. I just hate the thought of talent rotting away on a bench for lack of opportunity.