Free Agency Waves
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We have all heard of the waves in free agency. Obviously we have the first big wave of big contracts signed basically during the legal tampering period. But, when are the other ones? (maybe right before and right after the draft? Maybe right before/after training camp?) Someone break it down for me
- The Cooler King
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It became very clear to me last year that there is no actual consensus.
I'd say my waves though are:
Wave 1: legal tampering period
Wave 2: start of league year and next week
Wave 3: week 2 through NFL draft
Then you have a post draft/post June 1 cut wave, then you're basically ramping up for training camp.
I'd say my waves though are:
Wave 1: legal tampering period
Wave 2: start of league year and next week
Wave 3: week 2 through NFL draft
Then you have a post draft/post June 1 cut wave, then you're basically ramping up for training camp.
- The Marshall Plan
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These are the waves of free agency as I understand them:
1) Roughly three months of hope and planning figuring that the GM of your team obviously sees the same needs you do because you spend hours watching the games, discussing, etc.
2) The week before FA where it’s like ok it’s so obvious we need to sign these three guys. These three guys and we make the next step forward.
3) FA starts. You sit by your computer like JFK by the radio waiting for updates on the Cuban Missile Crisis. You pace back and forth. Muttering incoherently. Cursing. You then get word that another team signed Your Guy. Then you’re like that’s OK because there are two other guys.
4) Like five guys have signed elsewhere. Your list is still good. But you’re waiting. Hey these other GMs got shit done. Why can’t mine?
5) The first signing. A backup tackle that you know they’ll convert to guard. Ok at least we signed somebody.
6) Now paranoia sets in. WTF we have $100M in cap space. The roster has more holes than Swiss cheese. What is going on?
7) The first big signing. Holy shit we got Edmunds! But wait we don’t need a LB!
8) The avalanche. Hargrave and Jones signs. The secondary DL guys all sign. Your head is spinning. Poles do something. Make a trade. Do something. Crickets. You’re fucked and you know it.
9) Post FA blitz lament. The core needs weren’t addressed. They have more money leftover than the GDP of most European countries. You sit here and people actually tell you to take your two LBs and be happy.
That’s where I’m at now. I’ll let you know about Phase 10.
1) Roughly three months of hope and planning figuring that the GM of your team obviously sees the same needs you do because you spend hours watching the games, discussing, etc.
2) The week before FA where it’s like ok it’s so obvious we need to sign these three guys. These three guys and we make the next step forward.
3) FA starts. You sit by your computer like JFK by the radio waiting for updates on the Cuban Missile Crisis. You pace back and forth. Muttering incoherently. Cursing. You then get word that another team signed Your Guy. Then you’re like that’s OK because there are two other guys.
4) Like five guys have signed elsewhere. Your list is still good. But you’re waiting. Hey these other GMs got shit done. Why can’t mine?
5) The first signing. A backup tackle that you know they’ll convert to guard. Ok at least we signed somebody.
6) Now paranoia sets in. WTF we have $100M in cap space. The roster has more holes than Swiss cheese. What is going on?
7) The first big signing. Holy shit we got Edmunds! But wait we don’t need a LB!
8) The avalanche. Hargrave and Jones signs. The secondary DL guys all sign. Your head is spinning. Poles do something. Make a trade. Do something. Crickets. You’re fucked and you know it.
9) Post FA blitz lament. The core needs weren’t addressed. They have more money leftover than the GDP of most European countries. You sit here and people actually tell you to take your two LBs and be happy.
That’s where I’m at now. I’ll let you know about Phase 10.
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New Wave?
Here's my waves:
1st Wave - Splash Signings, bigger contracts, usually top guys on the market - very rarely bargains (TJ Edwards appears to be an Exception)
2nd Wave - More Bargains - though a good chunk of 1 year deals - Sometimes this can be positional based (Tight End this FA - ouch, ditto WR ). THough TE and WR are different scenarios here. None of the Christian Kirk-esque WR got paid like Kirk this year - Whereas some real talent as to TE
Sometimes its your agent played it wrong (Chancey-Gardner?). Guys who don't have the leverage and need to find a chair before the music stops.
Often some of the best deals
3rd Wave - Post Draft and Post Compensatory Formula Cut Off
Still a good chunk of bargains - though you will usually see a few bigger deals too. A Team with a pronounced need after the Draft. And/Or a team that would have given the same contract on Day 1-2 of FA but not if it was going to cost them a 4th Round comp pick (Poles failed at this last year)
Often some really good Vets too
Wave during it all - Fans Complaining that team isn't perfect - ignoring Warts of guys who sign elsewhere - or maybe just making new reality (What If we say Christian Kirk actually WASNT overpaid?). Sky is Falling. Poles doesn't want to win if he doesn't sign a Rotational DE!
The last wave is the wave for Bodhi - it never crashes!
Editted: Exception not acception. Ugh
Last edited by RichH55 on Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
- thunderspirit
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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- The Cooler King
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To me a sure sigh of wave 3 is the 1 year deals. Multi year deals are gonna be pretty few and far between from here on out. That's a sign it's wave 3, for sure.
- Yogi da Bear
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The waves from here on out:
Are gonna be tiny.
Are gonna be tiny.
- ramentaschen
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I still think about the time someone here said,
“Sign him, cut him, then sign him again!”
“Sign him, cut him, then sign him again!”
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Were they talking about Kelvin Hayden?ramentaschen wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:18 pm I still think about the time someone here said,
“Sign him, cut him, then sign him again!”
- The Marshall Plan
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I was thinking Bradley Sowell.Middleguard wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:45 pmWere they talking about Kelvin Hayden?ramentaschen wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:18 pm I still think about the time someone here said,
“Sign him, cut him, then sign him again!”
- crueltyabc
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I'm looking at the roster and I see most position groups already have their "camp body" types already filled. As I understand it, Poles still has to spend a ton of cash so I'm thinking there will be another week at some point where the Bears make like 10x 1-year signings of actual NFL players while other teams are signing their camp bodies. Is that a fair way to look at the cap/cash situation?The Cooler King wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:45 pm To me a sure sigh of wave 3 is the 1 year deals. Multi year deals are gonna be pretty few and far between from here on out. That's a sign it's wave 3, for sure.
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No, I think it’s more likely that Kmet and Johnson get contract extensions to get to the floor then Poles splurges on a bunch of one year contracts.crueltyabc wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:14 pmI'm looking at the roster and I see most position groups already have their "camp body" types already filled. As I understand it, Poles still has to spend a ton of cash so I'm thinking there will be another week at some point where the Bears make like 10x 1-year signings of actual NFL players while other teams are signing their camp bodies. Is that a fair way to look at the cap/cash situation?The Cooler King wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:45 pm To me a sure sigh of wave 3 is the 1 year deals. Multi year deals are gonna be pretty few and far between from here on out. That's a sign it's wave 3, for sure.
I also think Poles is also waiting to see what happens with cuts and guys that might become available via trade. For instance, Zadarius Smith said goodbye to the Vikings and has reportedly asked to be released, how’s that going to play out? He might be someone Poles is interested in if he becomes available.
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I'm a fan of this perspective, but I'm not so high on giving Johnson too much guaranteed $$. The nice aspect of still having this much cap space is to basically poach some high-end cap casualties that will inevitably occur leading up to the draft. In recent years this has been when some trades for pretty damn good players go down for a 4th or a 5th or a 5th and 7th, etc also!! We could be lurking for a nice get soon.TheWorldBreaker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:29 pmNo, I think it’s more likely that Kmet and Johnson get contract extensions to get to the floor then Poles splurges on a bunch of one year contracts.crueltyabc wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:14 pm
I'm looking at the roster and I see most position groups already have their "camp body" types already filled. As I understand it, Poles still has to spend a ton of cash so I'm thinking there will be another week at some point where the Bears make like 10x 1-year signings of actual NFL players while other teams are signing their camp bodies. Is that a fair way to look at the cap/cash situation?
I also think Poles is also waiting to see what happens with cuts and guys that might become available via trade. For instance, Zadarius Smith said goodbye to the Vikings and has reportedly asked to be released, how’s that going to play out? He might be someone Poles is interested in if he becomes available.
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10 may be a lot. I actually did an exercise today and assigned a value of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% chances to make 53 roster for every guy on roster. And that 25% is very generous for many on the low end. Added up the combined odds and got 41 guys. That's not even factoring in injury. 10 draft picks, but unlikely all make final roster either. So I think conservatively they can add 3 more NFL ready now legit guys and have roster space. And certainly may help close the cash floor a bit. Another dozen or so UDFA guys and then some ad hoc other signings gets them to a training camp roster.crueltyabc wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:14 pmI'm looking at the roster and I see most position groups already have their "camp body" types already filled. As I understand it, Poles still has to spend a ton of cash so I'm thinking there will be another week at some point where the Bears make like 10x 1-year signings of actual NFL players while other teams are signing their camp bodies. Is that a fair way to look at the cap/cash situation?The Cooler King wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:45 pm To me a sure sigh of wave 3 is the 1 year deals. Multi year deals are gonna be pretty few and far between from here on out. That's a sign it's wave 3, for sure.
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Related to the wave discussion, put a long Twitter thread together looking at where later wave success was found based on 2022 FA period.