Outstanding article on Poles in SI

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IotaNet
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All -

This article is about Poles and his relationship with JF1. I was really struck however, about the smart and methodical way Poles goes about the business of doing his job.

On these boards, we often wonder if the FO people are really thinking and working through all the nuances and angles. (I really liked the part about seeking a "deal booster.") Reading this, I am confident that Poles is thinking light years beyond any of us amateurs.

I can really see why the Bears hired him. This guy is going to be very good for a very long time

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan- ... tarting-qb
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IotaNet wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:47 pm
On these boards, we often wonder if the FO people are really thinking and working through all the nuances and angles. (I really liked the part about seeking a "deal booster.") Reading this, I am confident that Poles is thinking light years beyond any of us amateurs.


https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan- ... tarting-qb
I don't really see anything special there, to be honest.
“The booster was the player that would come with it,” Poles says. “For sure, a known talent that I was gonna get, if it pushed me outside of a certain value bucket. If nine pushed me two spots out of where I thought I could be 100% sure I was gonna get a blue-chip player, the player that was going to be thrown in was going to have to enhance our roster enough to make me feel comfortable with going to that next level in the value system.”

In short, as Poles mentioned to me a couple of weeks ago, he had seven players ranked in his first group. He’d still probably get one with the ninth pick (given the likely run on quarterbacks), but trading that far down meant he couldn’t be assured of it.
If a trade moved him out of 100% certainty for a blue chip, he wanted a player included who would make him feel better about maybe missing out on a blue chip.

Many of us talk about and consider difference-maker/impact/blue chip players, tiers/dropoffs, and that sort of thing all the time. He gave a fancy name to the veteran player is all.
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In a lot of online mocks I've done recently (and I do WAY too many), the Blue Chips stop around 6 or 7 .... and that's with Jalen Carter going before 9. I've been trying to target Tyree Wilson in at 9 and he's only there about 20% of the time.

The two corners (Gonzalez and Witherspoon) could very well be BPA at 9.
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wulfy wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:49 pm In a lot of online mocks I've done recently (and I do WAY too many), the Blue Chips stop around 6 or 7 .... and that's with Jalen Carter going before 9. I've been trying to target Tyree Wilson in at 9 and he's only there about 20% of the time.

The two corners (Gonzalez and Witherspoon) could very well be BPA at 9.
Same - I was playing around with some mocks the other day, and I kept coming back to corner being BPA at 9. If that's what we did, I wouldn't be disappointed at all. I was thinking we'd end up trading down at that spot, but I think I'd rather draft one of those two corners if they're there at 9 than move back and take one of the next DL players.
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LacertineForest wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:44 pm

Same - I was playing around with some mocks the other day, and I kept coming back to corner being BPA at 9. If that's what we did, I wouldn't be disappointed at all. I was thinking we'd end up trading down at that spot, but I think I'd rather draft one of those two corners if they're there at 9 than move back and take one of the next DL players.
I'd either trade back for Van Ness or pick one of the OTs .... but I'd rather draft OT in the second (so much depth there this year).
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IotaNet wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:47 pm I am confident that Poles is thinking light years beyond any of us amateurs.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan- ... tarting-qb
I'd think that's true about all the GMs.
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wulfy wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:52 pm
LacertineForest wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:44 pm

Same - I was playing around with some mocks the other day, and I kept coming back to corner being BPA at 9. If that's what we did, I wouldn't be disappointed at all. I was thinking we'd end up trading down at that spot, but I think I'd rather draft one of those two corners if they're there at 9 than move back and take one of the next DL players.
I'd either trade back for Van Ness or pick one of the OTs .... but I'd rather draft OT in the second (so much depth there this year).
I think there is some depth, but my concern is there won't be enough to make to our pick in the second round.

Because of that, I'm hoping that someone like Washington wants to move to 9. Best case would for the 4th QB so we have more leverage. That should allow us to get picks 16 and 47 and maybe a future 4th. At 16 I think Adetomiwa Adebawore could be in play or Van Ness. I think we have a better shot at 47 than 53 for an OT (it's only 6 spots but that could be a huge difference). Plus at 47 it wouldn't take as much to move to the late 30s. But I still don't think that's a move Poles would make. He will stick to his board and move down, but I don't see him moving up much.
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@Arkansasbear - I really shudder when I see Adebawore listed as a First Rounder (Kiper now has him 14th overall). I watch a fair amount of Wildcats football (local team and my dad went there) and AA wasn't a factor on that defense short of a few flash plays. That said - he was probably playing out of position - and they had new DC that what way over his head the last two years. T-Rex armed Kancey at least has some pretty good tape.

I know AA historically tested off the charts - but you have to have some tape to justify that high of a pick.
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:17 am @Arkansasbear - I really shudder when I see Adebawore listed as a First Rounder (Kiper now has him 14th overall). I watch a fair amount of Wildcats football (local team and my dad went there) and AA wasn't a factor on that defense short of a few flash plays. That said - he was probably playing out of position - and they had new DC that what way over his head the last two years. T-Rex armed Kancey at least has some pretty good tape.

I know AA historically tested off the charts - but you have to have some tape to justify that high of a pick.
I don't love him at that spot like some do (I think Yogi is all in that guy using his Mahommes street cred to help show why he's right :taunt: :applaud: :taunt: :rofl: ), but I just get this feeling Poles will shock us and he could be the guy. Based on my limited time to look at all the guys, I don't have him there, but he is on a rocket like rise right now. I hope he isn't the pick because I can never spell his name right and have to go somewhere to look it up before I type it. If we do draft him, he will forever be "AA" when I talk about him - or at least until I type his name enough that I get it right without looking it up. In that regard he lines up with Ogun. :D
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:17 am @Arkansasbear - I really shudder when I see Adebawore listed as a First Rounder (Kiper now has him 14th overall). I watch a fair amount of Wildcats football (local team and my dad went there) and AA wasn't a factor on that defense short of a few flash plays. That said - he was probably playing out of position - and they had new DC that what way over his head the last two years. T-Rex armed Kancey at least has some pretty good tape.

I know AA historically tested off the charts - but you have to have some tape to justify that high of a pick.
You must not have been paying attention then Wulfy because he does have tape, and he has stats to back it up. He had 38 tackles last year and 36 the year before. Van Ness, a guy you've touted, had 36 and 33. Van Ness had 14 sacks to AA's 10 the past two years, but AA had 61 pressures, 43 QB hurries, and 7 QB hits in those two years. Those make for a helluva lot of tape in two years. No? Really, only Anderson and Wilson have significantly better production than that. Carter certainly doesn't. Nor does Murphy. Not really sure what you were looking for, but his production is pretty damn solid. His 27 run stops ranks third among edge rushers.
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 10:07 am
wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:17 am @Arkansasbear - I really shudder when I see Adebawore listed as a First Rounder (Kiper now has him 14th overall). I watch a fair amount of Wildcats football (local team and my dad went there) and AA wasn't a factor on that defense short of a few flash plays. That said - he was probably playing out of position - and they had new DC that what way over his head the last two years. T-Rex armed Kancey at least has some pretty good tape.

I know AA historically tested off the charts - but you have to have some tape to justify that high of a pick.
You must not have been paying attention then Wulfy because he does have tape, and he has stats to back it up. He had 38 tackles last year and 36 the year before. Van Ness, a guy you've touted, had 36 and 33. Van Ness had 14 sacks to AA's 10 the past two years, but AA had 61 pressures, 43 QB hurries, and 7 QB hits in those two years. Those make for a helluva lot of tape in two years. No? Really, only Anderson and Wilson have significantly better production than that. Carter certainly doesn't. Nor does Murphy. Not really sure what you were looking for, but his production is pretty damn solid. His 27 run stops ranks third among edge rushers.
Yogi, I haven't done a hard look at him yet and I keep meaning to, but hopefully you can help me out. There is talk about he was being played out of position. If that's true how did they utilize him and how does he fit for us? You say his 27 run stops were third for an Edge, so is that where he played, but he would move inside for us? Or would he be Dan Hampton lite and he would be wherever we needed him to be.

Thanks.
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Yeah, he played predominantly edge, but they moved him all around. He played quite a bit at DT. But he also played both sides at edge. It was his performance at 3T at the Senior Bowl that was really eye popping for me. I didn't see him lose a snap.
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As always, @Yogi da Bear, I appreciate your passion! I can only tell you what I saw while watching multiple full games of his. He WILL flash - but he disappears for big stretches of time.

I've read in several places that scouts feel he has "first round athleticism and fourth round tape". I think that's a bit harsh - but I am leery of players who shoot up the board after running in their underwear.
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Here YdB - got both of them for you:
pff_mock_results (9).png
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:05 am As always, @Yogi da Bear, I appreciate your passion! I can only tell you what I saw while watching multiple full games of his. He WILL flash - but he disappears for big stretches of time.

I've read in several places that scouts feel he has "first round athleticism and fourth round tape". I think that's a bit harsh - but I am leery of players who shoot up the board after running in their underwear.
Adebawore is pretty much a textbook example of that, with a caveat: he was realigned and appeared to be getting solid coaching at the Senior Bowl — and was taking to it. So that may be a reason for his better showing in Mobile.

His 2021 and 2022 seasons were both pretty productive, so I'm not any more convinced than @wulfy that we're looking at "fourth round tape". He's probably been a solid Day 2 guy, but his Senior Bowl and Combine testing may move him imto Day 1. Pick #9 would be really rich to me, though.
KFFL refugee.

dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
:shocked:
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Here's a tape of his against Ohio State. Curious, what do you think Wulfy?



Myself, I was pretty impressed despite the blatant holds by the Buckeyes on several plays. Amazing what they get away with. AA plays a lot of DT in this clip.

I can see why you have problems with seeing him Wulfy if you're just watching the game. They move him around a lot. He's hard to find even when you're looking especially for him. A lot of times too, they have him playing contain, so he's not as aggressive as he could be. Watch his power against Jones. I saw AA push him back a couple of times. That was pretty impressive.
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I don't hate on him at all ... I just don't like where he's being projected.
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What did you think of that tape though? I was pretty impressed by it.
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:25 am Here YdB - got both of them for you:

pff_mock_results (9).png
Joe Tippmans hair lol
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:25 am Here YdB - got both of them for you:

pff_mock_results (9).png
I really like what you did there. Don't know if I'd go RB there may wait another round, but if we came out with what you have, that's a very good draft IMO.
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:25 am Here YdB - got both of them for you:

pff_mock_results (9).png

Even though Charbonnet isn't my favorite RB, I would absolutely love that draft Wulfy.
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I don't think Adebawore will make it past 20. Somebody's going to take a flier on him early, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was the Bears. Feels like the hype machine for him is growing.
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dplank wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 2:57 pm
wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:25 am Here YdB - got both of them for you:

pff_mock_results (9).png
Joe Tippmans hair lol
Is that a mullet?
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wulfy wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:05 am As always, @Yogi da Bear, I appreciate your passion! I can only tell you what I saw while watching multiple full games of his. He WILL flash - but he disappears for big stretches of time.

I've read in several places that scouts feel he has "first round athleticism and fourth round tape". I think that's a bit harsh - but I am leery of players who shoot up the board after running in their underwear.
Neither is going in the Top 10
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:42 pm Here's a tape of his against Ohio State. Curious, what do you think Wulfy?



Myself, I was pretty impressed despite the blatant holds by the Buckeyes on several plays. Amazing what they get away with. AA plays a lot of DT in this clip.

I can see why you have problems with seeing him Wulfy if you're just watching the game. They move him around a lot. He's hard to find even when you're looking especially for him. A lot of times too, they have him playing contain, so he's not as aggressive as he could be. Watch his power against Jones. I saw AA push him back a couple of times. That was pretty impressive.
Blantant holds - jesus
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:47 pm
IotaNet wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:47 pm
On these boards, we often wonder if the FO people are really thinking and working through all the nuances and angles. (I really liked the part about seeking a "deal booster.") Reading this, I am confident that Poles is thinking light years beyond any of us amateurs.


https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan- ... tarting-qb
I don't really see anything special there, to be honest.
“The booster was the player that would come with it,” Poles says. “For sure, a known talent that I was gonna get, if it pushed me outside of a certain value bucket. If nine pushed me two spots out of where I thought I could be 100% sure I was gonna get a blue-chip player, the player that was going to be thrown in was going to have to enhance our roster enough to make me feel comfortable with going to that next level in the value system.”

In short, as Poles mentioned to me a couple of weeks ago, he had seven players ranked in his first group. He’d still probably get one with the ninth pick (given the likely run on quarterbacks), but trading that far down meant he couldn’t be assured of it.
If a trade moved him out of 100% certainty for a blue chip, he wanted a player included who would make him feel better about maybe missing out on a blue chip.

Many of us talk about and consider difference-maker/impact/blue chip players, tiers/dropoffs, and that sort of thing all the time. He gave a fancy name to the veteran player is all.
This isn't a dig at Poles because all GMs talk this way but the idea of a blue chip player in the draft is laughable to me. Hit rates are so low in general that, "can't miss" or whatever just doesn't exist. Every year lots of players won't live up to their consensus derived expectations and even more will exceed them (most won't have much expectation and will live up to the lack thereof). It is what it is.
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malk wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:24 am
Moriarty wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:47 pm

I don't really see anything special there, to be honest.



If a trade moved him out of 100% certainty for a blue chip, he wanted a player included who would make him feel better about maybe missing out on a blue chip.

Many of us talk about and consider difference-maker/impact/blue chip players, tiers/dropoffs, and that sort of thing all the time. He gave a fancy name to the veteran player is all.
This isn't a dig at Poles because all GMs talk this way but the idea of a blue chip player in the draft is laughable to me. Hit rates are so low in general that, "can't miss" or whatever just doesn't exist. Every year lots of players won't live up to their consensus derived expectations and even more will exceed them (most won't have much expectation and will live up to the lack thereof). It is what it is.
The draft always comes with an implied "Potential" in front of any of those descriptors and evaluations, as well as media-speak and smokescreen. Everyone knows that.
But in general use in those circles, it means a player with top-5 at their position upside.
The easy examples here are guys like Andrew Luck, Saquon Barkley, or Miles Garrett. Their college tape and talent jumps out at you -- that two of them were hampered by injury is always a risk (that likewise impacts "hit rate")

Once they're actually in the league, adapt and show something, then you can evaluate more on what they've actually done at the level, rather than projecting potential ceiling
2023 Preseason Downside prediction:
5-6 wins, never really healthy all season, a constant shuffling.
We're potentially in a position to draft in the Top 5 again, depending on the Carolina team, and probably have a low-teens (or better) pick ourselves.
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