Update: Jaylon Johnson not traded

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Arkansasbear
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I'm sure we have some thread buried way down there, but I'm not digging it up.

Where is everyone on him based on what he's done thus far.

I'm been a fan of his since day one. Sure the lack of "impact plays" until yesterday is a bit of downer, but he plays at a high level and the quarterback rating when he is targeted is low. He doesn't give up many TDs and most of the completion thrown his way don't result in many yards after the catch.

It's also a bit concerning he has missed time every year due to injuries (I think it's every year, I could be wrong).

He's a guy who you can win with. Yesterday's performance very well could be blip rather than an indicator of who he can be as a player.

IMO the player he has been thus far is a guy we need to keep. Spotrac has him at 3 years and 23.3M for an average of $7.7M. I'm good with that, and wouldn't even mind if we did a 4th year with so long as we keep the guaranteed money about the same. That locks him in through his age 28 season.

Wow something positive to talk about with the team. That's refreshing.
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The Marshall Plan
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Do not let yesterday fool you.

This is that typical contract year bullshit you see from players.

We've had three full season to see what JJ does and he is not a CB1.

If he wants CB2 money ok fine, but if I can upgrade in FA I'm doing it.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 4:26 pm Do not let yesterday fool you.

This is that typical contract year bullshit you see from players.

We've had three full season to see what JJ does and he is not a CB1.

If he wants CB2 money ok fine, but if I can upgrade in FA I'm doing it.
I'd agree that it comes down to the money. $7.7M/year seems about right IMO. That puts him at the 30th highest paid CB in the NFL. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 548233007/

Banking on getting an upgrade in FA is risky IMO. Maybe you do, maybe no one that would be an upgrade reaches FA. Maybe the guy you target was successful because of the team/scheme he was in and he doesn't perform as well here.

I'm not saying yesterday means we open up the vault to bring him him in, I think it just shows he's worth the amount projected by Spotrac (but I also though he was worth that before yeseterday).
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21 CBs making $10+M up to $21M. Johnson is a shut down guy who doesn't produce many turnovers. I see him in the $10 to $14M range. I'd rather see the Bears sign him to a reasonable contract and use the big FA $ towards a QB-eating DE, of which there will be several.
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  • 2 picks against a backup QB who was behind late game and desperate shouldn't move the needle all that much.
  • It did move his passer rating against tremendously, and that will certainly come into play in negotiations
  • He was having an excellent season before those picks, though
  • And, because of that, that 7.7M figure is outdated.
It makes me squeamish when players suddenly explode in their contract year, but he's going for way more than that now.
I'd be happy to have him back, but how big the numbers get matters. We saw how bidding got pretty out of hand at OT last year.
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At some point they have to extend good homegrown talent. I hope he stays.
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I like that he seems to want to stay here. And although he exploded yesterday with picks, he has been very consistent in shutting opposing receivers down throughout his career. I'm for extending him, but it has to be at a decent price.
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Poles must show the locker room that there’s a reward in staying here if you play well. JJ has earned it.
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Payday? Bears’ Jaylon Johnson ups the ante with pick-six

It was a day of celebration for Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

The “dub” was for Bears fans who weathered a 10-game home losing streak that was snapped Sunday in a 30-12 victory over the Raiders at Soldier Field. But the pick-6 — an interception and 39-yard touchdown return that put an exclamation point on the rout — was for any team in the NFL willing to pay him the going rate for a cornerback who thinks he’s one of the best in the NFL.

Sending a message with the “pay me” celebration? “You’re damn right,” said Johnson, who stepped in front of Raiders star Davante Adams for the pick. “A hundred percent.”

It’s never a bad thing to make plays nine days before the trade deadline when you’re looking for a contract extension. Johnson added another interception on the Raiders’ ensuing drive to give him two interceptions in one game after he had just one interception in 43 NFL games coming in.

Now it’s time to talk. Sunday was pay day for Johnson.

“I’ve been wanting to get to the [bargaining] table,” Johnson said. “I know who I am. I know I can play this game at a high level. And I feel like I deserve to be paid like that. And I’m taking that attitude for any team, for anybody and everybody in the NFL. If it’s with the Bears, then I’ll do that. If it’s anybody else, for sure. I feel like I’m one of those guys who can be paid at a high level.”

Johnson was called for an illegal contact penalty against Jakobi Meyers on third down that kept a Raiders drive alive in the first quarter. And he had a 46-yard pass interference penalty against Tre Tucker late in the third quarter that gave the Raiders a first down at the Bears 15-yard line. They eventually settled for a field goal that cut the Bears’ lead to 21-6.

“I know I’ve got to clean up some of the penalties,” Johnson said. “I’ve got to do better. I’ve just got to do a better job of reading the receiver’s body language [on the DPI]. I think I was so caught up in getting back into position instead of truly reading [Tucker]. If I’d have read him right and looked back to the ball, I could have had three [interceptions]. Things like that happen as a corner. But definitely a play I want back.”
...

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... ith-pick-6
There's no way Johnson would even consider $7.7m a year. The first factor will be the sort of figure he and his agent do have in mind and whether that's within the valuation ballpark Poles has on him.

It was interesting that he didn't line up against Adams nearly as often as I expected him to. They left a rookie, Stevenson, on him for what seemed like a lot of the time. Like Johnson in previous match-ups with Adams, Stevenson had some ups and downs winning as many as he lost. (He got awfully lucky on that dropped TD though.) Does that give any kind of indication of the valuation the Bears place on Johnson?

Ultimately the secondary is thin on experience, even more so with Jackson missing most weeks now. Having Johnson in the fold would certainly be a benefit there. They can afford to pay a veteran significant money while all the other CBs are on their rookie deals, as long as they leave themselves an out in a couple of years should they want to move on as the others reach free agency. Having one in-house who already knows the system and the other players should be less risky then bringing in an outside free agent.

If they're going to jettison the coaching staff however, a new HC and DC may want to implement a completely different defense and they would have to decide whether Johnson is a fit for that. With that uncertainty I doubt they'll now be any extensions before the end of the season. Even if improvements abound and it becomes clear that Eberflus and co will be retained, the closer it gets to season's end the less incentive there is for a player to sign rather than wait and test the waters in free agency.
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From JJ's recorded comments, I don't believe he has much allegiance to the Bears (but I don't know what he owns in RE here). It seems he has a higher opinion of himself than most of us do and I kinda think Bears' brass agrees with us on this. I don't think they will trade him, but I think they will get nowhere in negotiations prior to FA next year and will let him test the market. I then believe one side or the other will be very surprised (and not necessarily Johnson's).
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dplank wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 5:15 pm Poles must show the locker room that there’s a reward in staying here if you play well. JJ has earned it.
1000% this. He misses some games, sure, but he’s good and consistently good.

Jaire Alexander is averaging $21mil a year and his allowed completion percentage has gone up this year from 60% to 78%.

Marshon Lattimore is making about $20 per year, and has allowed over 60% twice in five years, but is at 54% so far this year.

Jaylon has never allowed over 60% completion and is at a career low 53% so far this year.

I could see going as high as 4 year/$60mil. front loaded. That would make him top 10 average, but easy to move later if need be.
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JJ wants to be paid like an elite corner... I like him A LOT but he's not elite; 3 career INTs in 44 starts plus his propensity to get injured is far from ideal.

I'd make an offer, if he refuses I'd tell him to test the market and bring his best offer back to us.
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G08 wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 7:09 pm JJ wants to be paid like an elite corner... I like him A LOT but he's not elite; 3 career INTs in 44 starts plus his propensity to get injured is far from ideal.

I'd make an offer, if he refuses I'd tell him to test the market and bring his best offer back to us.
IMO you can’t keep creating new holes while trying to rebuild, and you can’t keep letting the successful draft picks that you have keep leaving Chicago. Pay him what is necessary to keep him.
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dplank wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 7:22 pm
G08 wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 7:09 pm JJ wants to be paid like an elite corner... I like him A LOT but he's not elite; 3 career INTs in 44 starts plus his propensity to get injured is far from ideal.

I'd make an offer, if he refuses I'd tell him to test the market and bring his best offer back to us.
IMO you can’t keep creating new holes while trying to rebuild, and you can’t keep letting the successful draft picks that you have keep leaving Chicago. Pay him what is necessary to keep him.
It seems that there's two sides to this question and you guys have pinned them very well. Thank you.
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I think 20 mill is too high for him. I'd go 15 though.
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G08 wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 7:09 pm JJ wants to be paid like an elite corner... I like him A LOT but he's not elite; 3 career INTs in 44 starts plus his propensity to get injured is far from ideal.

I'd make an offer, if he refuses I'd tell him to test the market and bring his best offer back to us.
It's virtually impossible for any player to be worth top 5 money, and difficult for top 10. Hopefully his lack of interceptions and spotty injury history keep him from getting too expensive but his play is really good and interceptions are overrated in individuals (they're a team stat, not a personal one imo). I'd definitely take him back at $15m per year, we really should have tried to extend him in the off season just gone but teams only like to take the risk of underperforming a high contract rather than a reasonable one...
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Contracts always go up, I’d go 20M if we had to. 17-18 feels about right though. He’s a top 10 corner IMO and you can’t just look at the current Too 10 salaries and slot him in precisely at the cost you want because, again, contracts always go up.

I’m not down with creating a MASSIVE roster hole at CB1 over a couple million dollars. That’s how you piss away draft capital! For all the other locker room reasons as well - Poles needs to get this one done.
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The Bears need to start building up a roster with good players at key positions. Poles should find a way to sign JJ.

The teardown should be over, it's time to start moving in the right direction.
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I mean it’s not like we’re paying a QB any time soon. Pay him a good bit up front and keep him around a while. He’s a good CB. We don’t have all that many good players.
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If it's me, I'd pay him the $15M/year. If he thinks his price went up that much because he got 2 picks from backup QBs last Sunday, that's silly thinking. 3 picks in 4 years isn't anything to get excited about. That said, he's still an excellent CB who I'd look to bring back at a reasonable price.

But my guess is that he will price himself beyond what Poles is willing to pay for a CB without the turnover skills that Eberflus craves. He did draft 2 CBs this year and both look like they have futures here. My guess is that Poles bets on those guys and let's JJ walk.

I will say that taking his helmet off in the end zone TWICE made me throw up a little. Celebrate with your teammates, avoid the fines and act like you've made good plays before. But don't be a me-me-me guy.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2023 4:26 pm Do not let yesterday fool you.

This is that typical contract year bullshit you see from players.

We've had three full season to see what JJ does and he is not a CB1.

If he wants CB2 money ok fine, but if I can upgrade in FA I'm doing it.
Post game he was already saying he needs to PAID!
I say pass. He is what he is as we have seen. One game does not make a huge payday automatic.
3 Interception onhis career? CB2 pay tops.
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People are way over valuing INT's here. Good coverage is the main thing, and INT's are icing on the cake. No one is saying to pay him because he had two INT's last week, everyone who thinks we need to pay him thinks this because he's been a good cover corner since he got here, and that has a lot of value.

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Posted this in another thread, but it belongs here....this is why I want to keep JJ

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dplank wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:46 am People are way over valuing INT's here. Good coverage is the main thing, and INT's are icing on the cake. No one is saying to pay him because he had two INT's last week, everyone who thinks we need to pay him thinks this because he's been a good cover corner since he got here, and that has a lot of value.

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I think that's what making finding a number for him so hard. His coverage numbers are top CB1, but his big play numbers are extremely weak. Then you factor in the games missed and the team has to turn to their 3rd CB for a few games that could cost them.

I don't know what the number should be, I just hope they work it out and it's not crazy.
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His shoulder could be chronic Ark, that’s the only thing that gives me pause here as well….
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dplank wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:49 am Posted this in another thread, but it belongs here....this is why I want to keep JJ

Out of interest is anybody else no longer able to see tweets? For a while now they've shown up as "Loading tweet" for me but opened fine when I clicked on them, but in the last couple of days they've started coming up with a "Something went wrong. Try reloading." message.

Does anyone know if they've changed something yet again, this time preventing those without accounts from even reading tweets?
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 12:27 pm
dplank wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:49 am Posted this in another thread, but it belongs here....this is why I want to keep JJ

Out of interest is anybody else no longer able to see tweets? For a while now they've shown up as "Loading tweet" for me but opened fine when I clicked on them, but in the last couple of days they've started coming up with a "Something went wrong. Try reloading." message.

Does anyone know if they've changed something yet again, this time preventing those without accounts from even reading tweets?
I've not experienced that.
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Transition tag like we did for Kyle Fuller some years back for $16M?
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 12:27 pm
dplank wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:49 am Posted this in another thread, but it belongs here....this is why I want to keep JJ

Out of interest is anybody else no longer able to see tweets? For a while now they've shown up as "Loading tweet" for me but opened fine when I clicked on them, but in the last couple of days they've started coming up with a "Something went wrong. Try reloading." message.

Does anyone know if they've changed something yet again, this time preventing those without accounts from even reading tweets?
I don’t have an account and haven’t been able to see them since EM created “X”
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Mikefive wrote: Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:02 pm Transition tag like we did for Kyle Fuller some years back for $16M?
If the only way to keep JJ a Bear is to make him the 5th highest paid CB then I think he wants too much. Contracts do keep going up, so if his contract projects to making him 12th in a couple years, I guess I'm OK with that, whatever it is next year.
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