Cards locked for 1st pick?

College football and the NFL Draft

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alexwilkins
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Dobbs was keeping games too close, so they didn’t just bench him, they traded him away so they won’t even have the chance to play him again. Then they got shut out by the Browns.

Is Carolina beats Indy today, we’re probably out of the race for the 1st overall pick unless Kyler comes back.
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Ditka’s dictaphone
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We still have to play against the Cards and they’re only 1game worse than us
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alexwilkins
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 5:24 pm We still have to play against the Cards and they’re only 1game worse than us
Imagine there’s still a 1 game difference in 6 weeks.
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Carolina getting waxed by Indy. Thursday's game against Carolina is interesting but the Bears don't lose whatever the outcome.
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The Marshall Plan
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I'm trying to decide if the most Bears Thing that could happen in the draft is:

1) We get the 2 and 5 picks. MHJ goes 1 to the Cards.

2) We get the 1 and 5 picks. Poles trades the 1 for a boatload again. MHJ goes 1 to somebody.

3) We get the 1 and 5 picks. Poles drafts Caleb Williams. MHJ is gone by the time it's our turn at 5.
I Take The Field With Fields

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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:07 am I'm trying to decide if the most Bears Thing that could happen in the draft is:

1) We get the 2 and 5 picks. MHJ goes 1 to the Cards.

2) We get the 1 and 5 picks. Poles trades the 1 for a boatload again. MHJ goes 1 to somebody.

3) We get the 1 and 5 picks. Poles drafts Caleb Williams. MHJ is gone by the time it's our turn at 5.
There are several bookend LTs who would help the OL. Braxton will be under the microscope the next 8 games. The Bears just locked up sweat but Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama will get a big look as will Latu from UCLA. MHJ will go high but there are other WRs who are highly rated: Nabers from LSU, Coleman from Florida State. If the Bears do trade down in the 1st, they have to not move down too far (stay in the top 10) and get that high 2nd rounder as part of any trade.
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wab
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I think the Bears will likely pick 2 and 4.

MHJ "should" be available at 2. 4 might get you Fashanu.

The whole thing hinges on what they decide to do at QB. Well...actually what they decide to do with the coaching staff.
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I think it's really hard to envision a scenario where the Bears don't fire the coaching staff - especially if you are picking in the top-5 (with your own pick). Teams I see in contention for top-5 picks:
  • Cardinals look destined to end up #1, unless Kyler Murray come in and plays well enough to get some wins. Their schedule is not super easy, but a few winnable games vs. Rams, Bears, and Falcons. Not sure Arizona will give Murray the chance to help them (they seem to be in full-on tank mode), but he would be incentivized to show another team he can play.
  • Giants - awful and play in a nasty division. Most winnable remaining games are against the Rams, Packers, and Commanders. A lot hinges on the health of Daniel Jones. If he can't play, I don't see how they win another game.
  • Panthers - bad and play in a weak division. Winnable games against the Bears, Falcons, Bucs twice, and Packers.
  • Patriots - tough division, tough schedule - winnable games against the Giants and Broncos - maybe the Jets, too?
  • Bears - easiest schedule of the bunch - winnable games against Panthers, Falcons, Packers, and Cardinals.
  • Rams - already have 3 wins, but they looked putrid yesterday on offense. Tough schedule, but winnable games against the Cards and Giants - a lot depends on Stafford.
  • Packers - I think they have just enough to keep them out of the top-5, but they are still bad. I really enjoyed watching Jordan Love take a hit yesterday and then throw a backwards pass out of bounds for a loss of 8 yards yesterday. We'll see.
Obviously, there are more technically winnable games (any given Sunday and all that) but those are the ones I see as most likely right now. I think about what the maximum number of wins a team will have and get a top-5 pick, and I think that number is probably 5 (that's what it was last year). The Bears might get to 5, but I'm not sure. I think they need 6 or 7 for them to even entertain keeping Flus.

Given all this, if you're bringing in a new coaching staff, they're going to want their guy. Plus, I think it buys Poles time, as well, as it kind of resets his clock a little bit. It frees up cap space (not so much for 2024, but you don't have to pay Fields), so you can spend more on improving the team in other places for years down the road and try to win with a rookie QB contract. Unless they absolutely are not sold on the draft prospects, I just can't see them passing up the chance to draft their own guy. Are you really going to get another crack at the top-5 (likely 2) next year? Unless you're trading down with a team that you think will be awful next year, the odds aren't great.
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https://www.nfl.com/news/cardinals-to-s ... -this-week

Kyler’s back ‘barring setback’.
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Good win for the Cards v Falcons
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 7:08 pm Good win for the Cards v Falcons
Especially good for the Bears.
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Dec. 24: Cards vs. Bears. Will the Cards pull a Lovie and impact their draft position with a win?
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https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/pl ... en-daniels
Welp. I’m falling for Jayden Daniels, and he has shot up online draft boards, so here’s some fantasy booking.

Draft looks like this:
1) Patriots
2) Bears via CAR
3) Cards
4) Bears

Pats can have the crybaby. We talk up Marv heavy and put pressure on Zona to make a move. Cards feel the heat and trade up to 2 for Marv and give us 3 and their other first from the Texans(among other picks).

We scoop Daniels at 3, Malik Nabers at 4, and Van Pran later in the first via Houston.

Bang. Best offense the league has ever seen :evilgrin:
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LacertineForest
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alexwilkins wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:32 am https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/pl ... en-daniels
Welp. I’m falling for Jayden Daniels, and he has shot up online draft boards, so here’s some fantasy booking.

Draft looks like this:
1) Patriots
2) Bears via CAR
3) Cards
4) Bears

Pats can have the crybaby. We talk up Marv heavy and put pressure on Zona to make a move. Cards feel the heat and trade up to 2 for Marv and give us 3 and their other first from the Texans(among other picks).

We scoop Daniels at 3, Malik Nabers at 4, and Van Pran later in the first via Houston.

Bang. Best offense the league has ever seen :evilgrin:
Won't the Panthers have to win 2 games to get the #2 pick? I thought their SOS is pretty much guaranteed to be weaker, so they'd "win" the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.

Edit: I just looked and the two currently have the exact same SOS right now, so nevermind. I figured playing in the NFC South pretty much guaranteed a weak-sauce schedule.
Last edited by LacertineForest on Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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alexwilkins
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LacertineForest wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:42 am
alexwilkins wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:32 am https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/pl ... en-daniels
Welp. I’m falling for Jayden Daniels, and he has shot up online draft boards, so here’s some fantasy booking.

Draft looks like this:
1) Patriots
2) Bears via CAR
3) Cards
4) Bears

Pats can have the crybaby. We talk up Marv heavy and put pressure on Zona to make a move. Cards feel the heat and trade up to 2 for Marv and give us 3 and their other first from the Texans(among other picks).

We scoop Daniels at 3, Malik Nabers at 4, and Van Pran later in the first via Houston.

Bang. Best offense the league has ever seen :evilgrin:
Won't the Panthers have to win 2 games to get the #2 pick? I thought their SOS is pretty much guaranteed to be weaker, so they'd "win" the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.
Good point. Maybe old Kraft goes full Tepper and forces the Pats to trade up to #1 for their guy.
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alexwilkins wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 11:37 am
LacertineForest wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:42 am

Won't the Panthers have to win 2 games to get the #2 pick? I thought their SOS is pretty much guaranteed to be weaker, so they'd "win" the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.
Good point. Maybe old Kraft goes full Tepper and forces the Pats to trade up to #1 for their guy.
I wouldn't complain :)
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The Panthers are still in the #1 spot, the Pats in #2. If you want to see some outrageous trade proposals, do a mock draft on Pro Football Network. The Pats at 2 and the Cards at 3 are throwing some serious picks at the Bears for #1 although who knows how accurate the sim is. We all thought the Texans would sell the bank last year to move from 2 to 1 and they held fast, although they did trade up from 11 to 3 for Will Anderson.
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Grizzled wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:12 pm The Panthers are still in the #1 spot, the Pats in #2. If you want to see some outrageous trade proposals, do a mock draft on Pro Football Network. The Pats at 2 and the Cards at 3 are throwing some serious picks at the Bears for #1 although who knows how accurate the sim is. We all thought the Texans would sell the bank last year to move from 2 to 1 and they held fast, although they did trade up from 11 to 3 for Will Anderson.
I thought it was rumored that the Texans had a 3-team deal ready, but the Bears decided they wanted the Panthers' trade more (looks like that was clearly the right call). I feel pretty good that the Bears will be able to get an absolute haul if they move off of #1 this year (assuming that's where it ends up).
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alexwilkins wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:32 am https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/pl ... en-daniels
Welp. I’m falling for Jayden Daniels, and he has shot up online draft boards, so here’s some fantasy booking.

Draft looks like this:
1) Patriots
2) Bears via CAR
3) Cards
4) Bears

Pats can have the crybaby. We talk up Marv heavy and put pressure on Zona to make a move. Cards feel the heat and trade up to 2 for Marv and give us 3 and their other first from the Texans(among other picks).

We scoop Daniels at 3, Malik Nabers at 4, and Van Pran later in the first via Houston.

Bang. Best offense the league has ever seen :evilgrin:
If you recall, the last team to trade up from 3rd to 2nd overall was the Bears and that was for a QB. All they gave up was a third-round pick (No. 67) a fourth-round pick (No. 111) and a third-round pick the following year.

Why on earth would Arizona give the Bears their other first rounder (currently sitting 18th) and additional picks? Fantasy indeed!
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 5:39 pm
alexwilkins wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:32 am https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/pl ... en-daniels
Welp. I’m falling for Jayden Daniels, and he has shot up online draft boards, so here’s some fantasy booking.

Draft looks like this:
1) Patriots
2) Bears via CAR
3) Cards
4) Bears

Pats can have the crybaby. We talk up Marv heavy and put pressure on Zona to make a move. Cards feel the heat and trade up to 2 for Marv and give us 3 and their other first from the Texans(among other picks).

We scoop Daniels at 3, Malik Nabers at 4, and Van Pran later in the first via Houston.

Bang. Best offense the league has ever seen :evilgrin:
If you recall, the last team to trade up from 3rd to 2nd overall was the Bears and that was for a QB. All they gave up was a third-round pick (No. 67) a fourth-round pick (No. 111) and a third-round pick the following year.

Why on earth would Arizona give the Bears their other first rounder (currently sitting 18th) and additional picks? Fantasy indeed!
Answered your own question. Way to go! :thumbsup:
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New England is going to upset Pittsburgh tonite, essentially locking up the #1 pick for your Carolina Panthers.
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Grizzled wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:11 pm New England is going to upset Pittsburgh tonite, essentially locking up the #1 pick for your Carolina Panthers.
I actually think this too. That defense is playing great, they're going up against Mitch, and EVENTUALLY they have to score a fucking touchdown. Tonight's the night.
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Patriots score on opening drive
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Rusty Trombagent wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:34 pm
Grizzled wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:11 pm New England is going to upset Pittsburgh tonite, essentially locking up the #1 pick for your Carolina Panthers.
I actually think this too. That defense is playing great, they're going up against Mitch, and EVENTUALLY they have to score a fucking touchdown. Tonight's the night.
Oh Rusty you are so wise
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It's a wrap, Pats win. Panthers are now 2 games worse than the Pats and Cards with 5 left and an upcoming Bears-Cards tilt.
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Grizzled wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:43 am It's a wrap, Pats win. Panthers are now 2 games worse than the Pats and Cards with 5 left and an upcoming Bears-Cards tilt.
At least now if the Bears lose that game their own pick will improve without affecting the #1 overall much.
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Mitch is still killing it for da bears.
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Odds for #1:



Carolina would have to win 3 out of their remaining 5 games to lose the pick. Ain't happening, people.
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And on top of a shitty Bears game, the Panthers beat the Falcons 9-7. They're a game ahead of the Pats now.
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
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