What does trading the 1st round pick actually look like?

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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:35 am
UOK wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:29 am

I would love if Herbert was a Bear, but that's not going to happen. Herbert isn't worth the top pick, and I'm sure part of the allure of Harbaugh joining the Chargers was to coach Herbert.

JJ McCarthy is going to go, if he's lucky, in the last few picks of round one. That would take a desperate team and a very impressive pre-draft from McCarthy.
I think the #9 pick might do it though...
I mean, Greg Roman would definitely be a better fit with Fields than Herbert.
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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:39 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:19 pm

Getting the 1 pick wrong on a QB sets the franchise back half a decade and stops the forward momentum we have dead in it's tracks.

Even if Caleb Williams winds up being good, 2024 is a lost season because we're developing a QB. That means one year of Sweat / JJ / Moore / Kmet's contract is wasted.

In 2H23 we had the runrate of a playoff team. That's before any upgrades we get from Trade Down 2.0, the 9 pick, FA, and having Waldron instead of Dufus Getsy.

Finish the job. Sign a veteran C who can lead the line. DE2 in FA is gravy. Then in the draft, trade down, get the star player, draft Nabers or Odunze with the highest of the two first round picks after the trade down, with the other go BPA DL or Kinchens the S depending on how FA and the star player via trade down shakes out.

Then we're golden. There's no need to add the risk of having a rookie QB.

When we do the trade down, send the 1 to the AFC and maroon Williams behind Mahomes, Burrow and Allen for the next 10 years.
If the Bears go 7-10 again next year, isn't that another year wasted on those contracts? Signing guys in FA or drafting Odunze doesn't move the needle of the QB doesn't progress.

And I want the Bears to keep Fields. I just think it's unfair to completely dismiss the other side of the argument, when the other side of the argument is perfectly logical.
That first part is nonsensical.

The second part, the “other side of the argument” operates under an assumption that Williams is going to perform at a high level out of the gate. That is extremely flawed given how rookie QBs actually do.
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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:55 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:50 am

No, by definition it doesn't. It just means you don't have an extra bite or two at the cherry this year, not that you can't address your needs with all the other resources you have.

A trade down won't make much difference for next season because most of the additional picks will be in future years and other rookie picks will likely need time to become effective in the NFL. You also keep assuming a trade down will include a "star player", i.e. a veteran like DJ Moore, but there's no guarantee one would be included in a deal.

Again, the trade down option won't move the needle much for next season. The benefits would be realised in the medium term. The huge question facing Ryan Poles is whether those benefits outweigh the opportunity of landing a potential franchise QB. If Justin Fields had clearly demonstrated he was that calibre of QB then the decision would be easy but he didn't.
That last line is important. There is so much swirl around what the Bears will do because Fields didn't prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's the guy. There are still enough questions about him that Williams is being considered an option.

I think the Bears can be a playoff team with Fields, but I don't believe he's ever going to progress as a passer much beyond what he is right now. There is no doubt that Williams has talent, I just don't think that he has the characteristics that will make him great. Leadership, work ethic, love of the game...the intrinsic traits that every great QB has. Fields has this and that's why I prefer him over Williams, even with his limitations as a passer.
Good post wab, my only gripe is that I disagree that Fields has peaked as a passer. We just saw him go through a significant change in his game mid season and kept that level of play up for just over a half of a season. I think Waldren can unlock even more on the passing front, and it starts by simply passing more than Getsy wanted to. It's possible he's peaked, but at 24 and with his arm talent and work ethic I believe he can continue to improve as a passer and essentially reach Lamar Jackson status (never gonna be Herbert slinging it 50 times a game, always will dampen his pass numbers due to rush attempts, but he can get a lot more efficient than he's shown IMO)
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:11 am
wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:39 am

If the Bears go 7-10 again next year, isn't that another year wasted on those contracts? Signing guys in FA or drafting Odunze doesn't move the needle of the QB doesn't progress.

And I want the Bears to keep Fields. I just think it's unfair to completely dismiss the other side of the argument, when the other side of the argument is perfectly logical.
That first part is nonsensical.

The second part, the “other side of the argument” operates under an assumption that Williams is going to perform at a high level out of the gate. That is extremely flawed given how rookie QBs actually do.
How is the first part nonsensical? If Williams is drafted, it's a year of wasted contracts. If Fields doesn't progress, it's a year of wasted contracts.

The only difference in those statements is that you like one guy and you don't like the other.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:11 am
wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:39 am

If the Bears go 7-10 again next year, isn't that another year wasted on those contracts? Signing guys in FA or drafting Odunze doesn't move the needle of the QB doesn't progress.

And I want the Bears to keep Fields. I just think it's unfair to completely dismiss the other side of the argument, when the other side of the argument is perfectly logical.
That first part is nonsensical.

The second part, the “other side of the argument” operates under an assumption that Williams is going to perform at a high level out of the gate. That is extremely flawed given how rookie QBs actually do.
Rookie QBs also normally come into the year playing for teams that were among the worst in the league the previous year and have a massive roster deficiencies, potentially entirely new front office people, etc. Given what some scouts think of Williams and the situation the Bears are in, I think it's definitely reasonable to say that he could come in and perform well as a rookie.

I'll echo @wab's sentiments that my biggest concerns are that: Fields won't progress as a passer and Caleb doesn't have the mental side of what it takes to be great. I know the latter has been a focus on these forums and already written him off for it, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now and let Poles assess that.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:12 am Good post wab, my only gripe is that I disagree that Fields has peaked as a passer. We just saw him go through a significant change in his game mid season and kept that level of play up for just over a half of a season. I think Waldren can unlock even more on the passing front, and it starts by simply passing more than Getsy wanted to. It's possible he's peaked, but at 24 and with his arm talent and work ethic I believe he can continue to improve as a passer and essentially reach Lamar Jackson status (never gonna be Herbert slinging it 50 times a game, always will dampen his pass numbers due to rush attempts, but he can get a lot more efficient than he's shown IMO)
Fields has so much going for him: personality, work ethic, leadership qualities, athleticism, arm strength, running prowess, escapability, ability to make plays off-script etc. but the key word with him is "timing". That's at the heart of all his deficiencies.

His "clock" is too often out of sync with the rest of the offense. His drop back is lackadaisical, he comes off his progressions too early or too late, too often he doesn't release the ball when a throw is there to be made, he bails from the pocket when he doesn't need to instead of sliding or stepping up, he struggles to handle blitzes which limit his time to throw even further.

Are these issues fixable and can the new OC and QB coach manage to do it? If they feel they can then it's worth sticking with Fields and giving them all a chance safe in the knowledge that a trade down will yield ammunition to make a move for a QB a year down the line if it turns out they were wrong. Otherwise Poles has to use that first overall pick this year on a guy the coaches believe doesn't have these issues because they are not something you can work or scheme around in the NFL and be successful.
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Otherwise Poles has to use that first overall pick this year on a guy the coaches believe doesn't have these issues
Well that's the problem isn't it? There is simply no way to know if the next QB will have those issues or won't. Even the best minds out there routinely get this wrong as the ability to translate an NCAA QB to an NFL QB is essentially rolling a 20 sided dice and hoping for a 20.

At least with Fields you have an actual, real floor established and you know you can win with him - because the last half of the season he went 5-3 and by all rights should gave gone 7-1 or 6-2 but for two defensive collapses. So we know now, for the first time since JF1 has been here, that he is finally a QB good enough that you can win with. His leadership is top shelf and he has command of the locker room as well. Those are all "in the bag" right now. Those things are put at risk selecting any new QB, no matter how talented they may appear in NCAA action.
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I think the question at large when it comes to Fields is - are you ok with a QB that you can win with, or do you prefer a QB that you win because of?

I absolutely believe the Bears can win with Fields. I believe they can be a playoff team with him. I don't know that I trust him yet as a QB that you win because of. Do you give a Daniel Jones-sized contract to a guy that you just win with, or do you try for more. No one knows if Williams (or Maye or Daniels or whoever) is that guy either...just to be clear.

I'm doing something that I hate and that's playing both side of this one. Mostly because I prefer the devil I know, but I also realize the Bears are extremely likely to take Williams.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:00 pm
Otherwise Poles has to use that first overall pick this year on a guy the coaches believe doesn't have these issues
Well that's the problem isn't it? There is simply no way to know if the next QB will have those issues or won't. Even the best minds out there routinely get this wrong as the ability to translate an NCAA QB to an NFL QB is essentially rolling a 20 sided dice and hoping for a 20.

At least with Fields you have an actual, real floor established and you know you can win with him - because the last half of the season he went 5-3 and by all rights should gave gone 7-1 or 6-2 but for two defensive collapses. So we know now, for the first time since JF1 has been here, that he is finally a QB good enough that you can win with. His leadership is top shelf and he has command of the locker room as well. Those are all "in the bag" right now. Those things are put at risk selecting any new QB, no matter how talented they may appear in NCAA action.
I think all of that is a favorable view of what Fields' floor is.
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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:09 pm I think the question at large when it comes to Fields is - are you ok with a QB that you can win with, or do you prefer a QB that you win because of?

I absolutely believe the Bears can win with Fields. I believe they can be a playoff team with him. I don't know that I trust him yet as a QB that you win because of. Do you give a Daniel Jones-sized contract to a guy that you just win with, or do you try for more. No one knows if Williams (or Maye or Daniels or whoever) is that guy either...just to be clear.

I'm doing something that I hate and that's playing both side of this one. Mostly because I prefer the devil I know, but I also realize the Bears are extremely likely to take Williams.
Do you think that Fields is a liability for us out there?
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:14 pm
wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:09 pm I think the question at large when it comes to Fields is - are you ok with a QB that you can win with, or do you prefer a QB that you win because of?

I absolutely believe the Bears can win with Fields. I believe they can be a playoff team with him. I don't know that I trust him yet as a QB that you win because of. Do you give a Daniel Jones-sized contract to a guy that you just win with, or do you try for more. No one knows if Williams (or Maye or Daniels or whoever) is that guy either...just to be clear.

I'm doing something that I hate and that's playing both side of this one. Mostly because I prefer the devil I know, but I also realize the Bears are extremely likely to take Williams.
Do you think that Fields is a liability for us out there?
If you are asking me if the Bears are losing games because of Justin Fields (the definition of liability) then the answer is "sometimes". But I also think that can be overcome.
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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:31 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:14 pm

Do you think that Fields is a liability for us out there?
If you are asking me if the Bears are losing games because of Justin Fields (the definition of liability) then the answer is "sometimes". But I also think that can be overcome.
I'd agree with that and also assert that in '22 he was pretty much the ONLY reason we had a shot in some games. Almost every other player on the team was a liability.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:55 pm
wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:31 pm

If you are asking me if the Bears are losing games because of Justin Fields (the definition of liability) then the answer is "sometimes". But I also think that can be overcome.
I'd agree with that and also assert that in '22 he was pretty much the ONLY reason we had a shot in some games. Almost every other player on the team was a liability.
There are only maybe three or four QBs in the NFL right now that won't abjectly lose you a game on occasion due to a mistake made in clutch time. So it's not like he's a problem. But he needs to be more of the solution more often than not, and he isn't there right now.
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The Cooler King wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:13 pm
dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:00 pm

Well that's the problem isn't it? There is simply no way to know if the next QB will have those issues or won't. Even the best minds out there routinely get this wrong as the ability to translate an NCAA QB to an NFL QB is essentially rolling a 20 sided dice and hoping for a 20.

At least with Fields you have an actual, real floor established and you know you can win with him - because the last half of the season he went 5-3 and by all rights should gave gone 7-1 or 6-2 but for two defensive collapses. So we know now, for the first time since JF1 has been here, that he is finally a QB good enough that you can win with. His leadership is top shelf and he has command of the locker room as well. Those are all "in the bag" right now. Those things are put at risk selecting any new QB, no matter how talented they may appear in NCAA action.
I think all of that is a favorable view of what Fields' floor is.
What? We can’t use what he literally just did as a floor? What are we doing here? I used to admire your lack of bias and keeping things factual, but you’re emotional on this and it’s not a good look IMO.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:10 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:13 pm

I think all of that is a favorable view of what Fields' floor is.
What? We can’t use what he literally just did as a floor? What are we doing here? I used to admire your lack of bias and keeping things factual, but you’re emotional on this and it’s not a good look IMO.
1. Plenty of QBs have maxed out within their first few years and gotten worse or stalled. So there isnt any guarantee his floor is that high.
2. A half season of W-L data used to support it. That's just not a very long trend line to base that off of. And those defensive collapses were not only on the D. D, coaching, and yes, even Fields played a role in those collapses.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:10 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:13 pm

I think all of that is a favorable view of what Fields' floor is.
What? We can’t use what he literally just did as a floor? What are we doing here? I used to admire your lack of bias and keeping things factual, but you’re emotional on this and it’s not a good look IMO.
It IS entirely possible that what Fields did in the second half of the season is his ceiling. I don’t believe it is. But that’s also what is so silly about the floor/ceiling stuff. It’s almost never known without the benefit of hindsight.
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It may be his ceiling, but I agree I don’t think it is either. It is certainly his floor. I mean, people are arguing CW floors higher than Fields and he hasnt even taken an NFL snap, but then arguing we can’t use Fields actual NFL performance as a verified floor?

Folks are losing themselves in all this drama. Bears Nation needs this to come to a conclusion!
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:38 pm It may be his ceiling, but I agree I don’t think it is either. It is certainly his floor. I mean, people are arguing CW floors higher than Fields and he hasnt even taken an NFL snap, but then arguing we can’t use Fields actual NFL performance as a verified floor?

Folks are losing themselves in all this drama. Bears Nation needs this to come to a conclusion!
Well, he's played worse than the second half of last year, so I don't think using that is a good argument for his floor.

Looking at the prior year, he played much better in the second half of the year - well enough to generate some MVP discussion heading into the season. Then what happened? It's not all on him, but he did not play good football during the first quarter of the year.

Now he gets a new offense - I could definitely see his performance taking a dip to start the season. It might even out - hell, it might even end up great. But I think his floor is definitely lower than what he did at the second half of last year - especially if playing in his 4th offense in 5 years rattles his brain.
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wab wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:23 pm
dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:10 pm

What? We can’t use what he literally just did as a floor? What are we doing here? I used to admire your lack of bias and keeping things factual, but you’re emotional on this and it’s not a good look IMO.
It IS entirely possible that what Fields did in the second half of the season is his ceiling. I don’t believe it is. But that’s also what is so silly about the floor/ceiling stuff. It’s almost never known without the benefit of hindsight.
At the end of the day, 2024 could be the last year that any team gives him meaningful starter reps in his career. Whether you want to call it floor or whatever, his future as a NFL starter is far from certain. Some of that is just how the league works (a established vet at a certain level who's not good enough becomes a backup to worse prospects), but that's definitely in the reasonable outcome bands right now for Fields.
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LacertineForest wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:41 pm
dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:38 pm It may be his ceiling, but I agree I don’t think it is either. It is certainly his floor. I mean, people are arguing CW floors higher than Fields and he hasnt even taken an NFL snap, but then arguing we can’t use Fields actual NFL performance as a verified floor?

Folks are losing themselves in all this drama. Bears Nation needs this to come to a conclusion!
Well, he's played worse than the second half of last year, so I don't think using that is a good argument for his floor.

Looking at the prior year, he played much better in the second half of the year - well enough to generate some MVP discussion heading into the season. Then what happened? It's not all on him, but he did not play good football during the first quarter of the year.

Now he gets a new offense - I could definitely see his performance taking a dip to start the season. It might even out - hell, it might even end up great. But I think his floor is definitely lower than what he did at the second half of last year - especially if playing in his 4th offense in 5 years rattles his brain.
He’s 24 and has improved every year, as you would expect from a young player. He resets his floor every year, who he is now (2023 season) is the most reasonable floor projection possible for next season. This is not a hot take.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:48 pm
He’s 24 and has improved every year, as you would expect from a young player. He resets his floor every year, who he is now (2023 season) is the most reasonable floor projection possible for next season. This is not a hot take.
Granted we usually talk about floors in prospect terms, and not often in veteran terms.

But you're basically presenting him as someone who can't get worse and I don't know why you'd say that. It's not hating or anything. He could get better obviously. But off the top of my head, with zero checking I can think of several QBs who peak by year 2 or 3. It's not unusual.
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Do you not see how laughable it is to argue down an nfl players floor from the immediately preceding actual results, while simultaneously suggesting a higher floor for a college player who has never taken an NFL snap?

Bias drives illogical behavior at times.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:11 pm Do you not see how laughable it is to argue down an nfl players floor from the immediately preceding actual results, while simultaneously suggesting a higher floor for a college player who has never taken an NFL snap?

Bias drives illogical behavior at times.
By that logic, wouldn't someone like Daniel Jones' floor heading into this past year have been his 2022 campaign? He had respectable numbers in 2022, but 2023 was a disaster before he got hurt. Clearly his floor was not his most recent performance.

I agree with @wab here - I find the whole floor/ceiling thing pretty much nonsense. Yeah, you can predict a guy who's had several consistent seasons under his belt will continue that trend, but for guys who are in their first contract, I think it's basically pure speculation.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:11 pm Do you not see how laughable it is to argue down an nfl players floor from the immediately preceding actual results, while simultaneously suggesting a higher floor for a college player who has never taken an NFL snap?

Bias drives illogical behavior at times.
What is this specific bias you think I have? I have long supported Fields. I still do and it pains me how it's turned out, but I'm not blind.

I never once gave Caleb's floor as higher than NFL backup*. Thats not giving a higher floor than I'm giving Fields.

*caveat for both of them on not taking floor to full logical extreme.

Wentz, Marita, Winston, RG3. 4 recent highly touted guys off the top of my head who peaked between year 1-3. All had better stats than Fields has had at this point in any given best year, and I think cumulatively for all as well. All peaked and regressed after that high water mark season. This is only looking back 10ish years and I didn't even research it. I'm sure I can find even more. It's not some rarity.
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You’re way all in on trading Fields and drafting Williams, that bias.
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dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:17 pm You’re way all in on trading Fields and drafting Williams, that bias.
I can't deny I've spoken highly of both Williams and Maye. Ironically I've said they should consider keeping Fields for at least a year (and not trade) despite this preference for using pick 1 on QB too.

But even so, that's not exactly a bias. A bias would be like "I don't like Ohio State QBs" or something like that.

Also, saying Fields floor is lower than it is now isn't some bias. He could also improve! But we shouldn't give an honest evaluation where we slant primarily towards one outcome.
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LacertineForest wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:28 pm
dplank wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:11 pm Do you not see how laughable it is to argue down an nfl players floor from the immediately preceding actual results, while simultaneously suggesting a higher floor for a college player who has never taken an NFL snap?

Bias drives illogical behavior at times.
By that logic, wouldn't someone like Daniel Jones' floor heading into this past year have been his 2022 campaign? He had respectable numbers in 2022, but 2023 was a disaster before he got hurt. Clearly his floor was not his most recent performance.

I agree with @wab here - I find the whole floor/ceiling thing pretty much nonsense. Yeah, you can predict a guy who's had several consistent seasons under his belt will continue that trend, but for guys who are in their first contract, I think it's basically pure speculation.
What's needed to establish the Floor/Ceiling discussion is the sample size of data.

We have it on JF1 and, for me, JF1 is a Second Floor Gaming Room QB. Mahomes is the Penthouse.

I'm good with the Second Floor Gaming Room because the probability of getting the Penthouse is extremely low and expensive to acquire. You get that based upon luck and great coaching. Mahomes is not Mahomes if we drafted him and John Fox developed him.

What we have to avoid more than anything else is the Unfinished Basement. The Bust.

JF1 is nowhere close to a bust. Caleb Williams might be and if he is we are set back five years. With JF1, we need a couple of pieces and we're golden.
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If you trade down again this year, and Fields shits the bed. The Bears will have two 1st round picks next year. If they trade with a team like The Commanders or the Giants, both have a better than even chance of ending up with a top 5 pick next year. I just don't see how you can pass up on this much draft capital with a better than average QB in-house, whose stock is still ascending.
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The Cooler King
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Bears Whiskey Nut wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 8:43 am If you trade down again this year, and Fields shits the bed. The Bears will have two 1st round picks next year. If they trade with a team like The Commanders or the Giants, both have a better than even chance of ending up with a top 5 pick next year. I just don't see how you can pass up on this much draft capital with a better than average QB in-house, whose stock is still ascending.
They don't have a better than average QB as is. Him being better than average is based on projected growth.
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