Caleb Williams Mega-Thread

[Moriarty]

FYI, when I look at Caleb I'm looking at both years, not cherry picking his better one. In fact, if you were to weight one more than the other, you weight his more recent season than you do 2 years ago.

His 2nd year is not worse than the first one...except for volume (almost 25% fewer attempts).

Normally, you know better than that.

[LacertineForest]

The idea that Riley QBs haven't "panned out" in the NFL is pretty ridiculous. Baker just played in the NFC divisional round and Hurts was damn near the Super Bowl MVP last year! No other school/coach had more starting QBs playing in the NFL last year, and that will be true next year, too. Depending on where Kyler ends up, there might be 4 starting QBs from Riley playing in the NFL. Williams, Mayfield, and Hurts, will definitely be starters next year.

I'm no expert on college football, but the PAC-12 was pretty strong the last couple of years. The Big 12 has seemed a bit weaker to me in recent years, although I don't really remember 2017-2021.



This seems like a very pot calling the kettle black since you literally went searching for stats to validate how you feel about CW.

Of course you're dodging the main point. The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb. Seems odd to me. But I'm well past the point of thinking anyone will ever stay open minded around here, those days are long gone and we are in the dregs of "anchor, deflect, twist, and when all else fails, ignore".

Pointing out some variance on the teammate level isn't a strong rebuttal here. And the point I'm making isn't some massive takedown either, it's just a data point that I found interesting when I decided to take a look at it, and thought to share. I figured no one else had taken the time to look at this fairly obvious comp.

Dodging your main point? Your first sentence is literally "Something has been bugging me about Williams and I think I finally figured it out - my brain is linking Williams with other Lincoln Riley QB's that have not panned out in the NFL despite the gaudy numbers that Riley's offenses put up."

I addressed that by saying that Riley's offenses have more starting QB's than anyone in the league than anyone else, and that will continue next year when Caleb Williams is a starter.

As far as the stats go - yup, he didn't have the best year out of all the QBs you listed. He played on a completely different team and in a different conference altogether than all of the other QBs in the list. I think it's fair to ask the question, but guys don't get projected into the NFL based on college numbers alone. Lots of guys have great college numbers but are terrible NFL pros. CW has very good numbers and clearly enough of the other attributes that make him the #1 prospect.

[UOK]

QB prospects can be tall, but it doesn't matter if they suck (Paxton Lynch).

QB prospects can have an incredible arm, but it doesn't matter if they turn the ball over a shitload (Jay Cutler).

QB prospects can be wizards while on the run, but it doesn't matter if they struggle to process after the snap (Justin Fields).

QB prospects can be considered the product of a system, but it doesn't matter if they're great independent of said system (Patrick Mahomes).

QB prospects can be great, but it doesn't matter if they go to the wrong situation (Justin Herbert).

All we have is our gut, our eyes, and biases to work off of, and as long as we're aware of that it makes things easier to swallow. For example, I think the painting of the nails thing that Williams does is stupid as hell. I hate that he tends to shut down once a game is seemingly lost. I hate that he doesn't have an agent and his family appears built for dramatics.

But if he gets in a Bears uniform and rocks the world with his play, I could give a shit if he wears a blonde wig and tik toks himself doing cringy Fortnite dances on the sideline between quarters with his dad. If I can go through several years of my life knowing that the Bears starting quarterback is one of the best in the NFL and not an issue we need to thoughtfully bake every offseason, I would be a thankful fan indeed.

[German Bear]

It's interesting what DJ Moore now says about fields and a potential new addition. He had made a clearer commitment to Fields in the past. That sounds different now. From this you can read that he thinks a change is not unlikely.

[Otis Day]

Williams fumbles since 2021 season - 17 total and 5 lost

https://www.foxsports.com/college-footb ... onType=reg

[wab]

It's interesting what DJ Moore now says about fields and a potential new addition. He had made a clearer commitment to Fields in the past. That sounds different now. From this you can read that he thinks a change is not unlikely.

For anyone wanting context:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/re ... r-BB1hZE4g

[southdakbearfan]

It's interesting what DJ Moore now says about fields and a potential new addition. He had made a clearer commitment to Fields in the past. That sounds different now. From this you can read that he thinks a change is not unlikely.

DJ strikes me as the rare WR that is just all business. He’s paid to catch footballs from whoever the team has back there and he will go about his business regardless of whom that is.

I think he likes Fields, he is fine playing with him, but he is fine regardless if the team goes another direction.

I don’t think it means a lot, because he is just all business.

[dplank]

QB prospects can be tall, but it doesn't matter if they suck (Paxton Lynch).

QB prospects can have an incredible arm, but it doesn't matter if they turn the ball over a shitload (Jay Cutler).

QB prospects can be wizards while on the run, but it doesn't matter if they struggle to process after the snap (Justin Fields).

QB prospects can be considered the product of a system, but it doesn't matter if they're great independent of said system (Patrick Mahomes).

QB prospects can be great, but it doesn't matter if they go to the wrong situation (Justin Herbert).

All we have is our gut, our eyes, and biases to work off of, and as long as we're aware of that it makes things easier to swallow. For example, I think the painting of the nails thing that Williams does is stupid as hell. I hate that he tends to shut down once a game is seemingly lost. I hate that he doesn't have an agent and his family appears built for dramatics.

But if he gets in a Bears uniform and rocks the world with his play, I could give a shit if he wears a blonde wig and tik toks himself doing cringy Fortnite dances on the sideline between quarters with his dad. If I can go through several years of my life knowing that the Bears starting quarterback is one of the best in the NFL and not an issue we need to thoughtfully bake every offseason, I would be a thankful fan indeed.

Agree 100%. In summary, it's a crapshoot. There's no way to tell what's going to happen. If we are lucky enough to get a great QB, I don't care at all about any personality stuff I'll just be thrilled to see us win games.

[dplank]

Of course you're dodging the main point. The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb. Seems odd to me. But I'm well past the point of thinking anyone will ever stay open minded around here, those days are long gone and we are in the dregs of "anchor, deflect, twist, and when all else fails, ignore".

Pointing out some variance on the teammate level isn't a strong rebuttal here. And the point I'm making isn't some massive takedown either, it's just a data point that I found interesting when I decided to take a look at it, and thought to share. I figured no one else had taken the time to look at this fairly obvious comp.

Dodging your main point? Your first sentence is literally "Something has been bugging me about Williams and I think I finally figured it out - my brain is linking Williams with other Lincoln Riley QB's that have not panned out in the NFL despite the gaudy numbers that Riley's offenses put up."

I addressed that by saying that Riley's offenses have more starting QB's than anyone in the league than anyone else, and that will continue next year when Caleb Williams is a starter.

As far as the stats go - yup, he didn't have the best year out of all the QBs you listed. He played on a completely different team and in a different conference altogether than all of the other QBs in the list. I think it's fair to ask the question, but guys don't get projected into the NFL based on college numbers alone. Lots of guys have great college numbers but are terrible NFL pros. CW has very good numbers and clearly enough of the other attributes that make him the #1 prospect.

So I'll just repeat my main point for a third time here, all I need to do is cut/paste from my prior post. It wasn't my opening remark about why I decided to look into this, it is "The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb."

I agree stats don't tell all, it's just one data point among dozens to consider. But it IS interesting to see that he underperformed Mayfield and Murray playing in the exact same offense. It's not meaningless, nor is it a complete indictment. Various folks across various threads have said things about JF1 like "I don't care about his supporting cast, if he's a great QB then he will overcome that." - and - "If he needs perfect surrounding circumstances, then he's the wrong guy". So I just don't really accept those types of excuses here, because if those are acceptable excuses for CW then they should apply to Justin as well. It's one or the other.

[Arkansasbear]

Yes, we are all suggesting that. Now we move past that and try to figure out to what extent the QB can overcome those circumstances (and to what extent they contribute to said circumstances).

This is all I need to know. Shit got hard and my guy manned up and went back in the game. Caleb went crying to mommy.

I still don't see the targeting call.

I'm still amazed Skalski didn't do more in the NFL. The guy was a machine in college, went undrafted, signed with the Cots and got released. Coaches at OU now. I so wanted him to be Bear. We'll just throw him in the group that has Aaron Curry and Dion Jordan. At least with Skalski I was thinking we could get him with a day 3 pick as opposed to using a day 1 pick on.

[Grizzled]

Jay Glazer told Williams' camp that if he succeeds in Chicago, he'll have streets and bridges named after him and he won't be able to field all the endorsement offers that come his way.

[wab]

Jay Glazer told Williams' camp that if he succeeds in Chicago, he'll have streets and bridges named after him and he won't be able to field all the endorsement offers that come his way.

Or he will be another in a long line of highly regarded prospects that the Bears failed to develop.

Some people are walking back their Mahomes comps and moving more towards Russell Wilson comps. IDK if that moves the needled one way or another for people, but prime Russell Wilson was a thing to behold.

[UOK]

Jay Glazer told Williams' camp that if he succeeds in Chicago, he'll have streets and bridges named after him and he won't be able to field all the endorsement offers that come his way.

Any quarterback that becomes great in Chicago and leads them to even one super bowl win would be enormous in a scope that's not really comparable since, well, it's never happened in Chicago. Chicago embraced Jim McMahon not so much because of how he played but who he was. Assholes can be king so long as you do it in a Bears uniform. It's impossible to earn the same type of mythos or cultural zeitgeist that the 80's Bears did, but there's a lingering love for successful Bears in the city that goes beyond simple admiration and gratitude.

[dplank]

Jay Glazer told Williams' camp that if he succeeds in Chicago, he'll have streets and bridges named after him and he won't be able to field all the endorsement offers that come his way.

Any quarterback that becomes great in Chicago and leads them to even one super bowl win would be enormous in a scope that's not really comparable since, well, it's never happened in Chicago. Chicago embraced Jim McMahon not so much because of how he played but who he was. Assholes can be king so long as you do it in a Bears uniform. It's impossible to earn the same type of mythos or cultural zeitgeist that the 80's Bears did, but there's a lingering love for successful Bears in the city that goes beyond simple admiration and gratitude.

It would only be eclipsed by Jordans popularity IMO. That guy was an international icon, but other than him a QB that wins a super bowl here would instantly be the biggest star in eons.

[G08]

LMAO, i knew the moment I posted this that the two of you would come immediately back. Just textbook, you're just so committed at this point.

It was a horrible take!

[G08]

G08 you know I like to include rushing stats, but I found them too hard to find. Like folks do with Justin, if we want to include them we'd better include Fumbles and I just couldn't find those stats. Please share if you have them.

Caleb Williams rushed for 966 yards and 27 TDs (37 games)
Baker Mayfield rushed for 1,083 yards and 21 TDs (48 games)
Kyler Murray rushed for 1,478 yards and 13 TDs (29 games)

Unlike you two fellas I'm still open minded about this.

I've been open minded, put in the time/research, and concluded that Williams is the better option for our franchise.

[The Marshall Plan]

I've been open minded, put in the time/research, and concluded that Williams is the better option for our franchise.

There is no way, at all, that a mentally weak momma’s boy who went 1-5 in the back half of his final year of college football is better than the following:

Star Player
24R1
24R2
25R1
25R2

[dplank]

G08 you know I like to include rushing stats, but I found them too hard to find. Like folks do with Justin, if we want to include them we'd better include Fumbles and I just couldn't find those stats. Please share if you have them.

Caleb Williams rushed for 966 yards and 27 TDs (37 games)
Baker Mayfield rushed for 1,083 yards and 21 TDs (48 games)
Kyler Murray rushed for 1,478 yards and 13 TDs (29 games)

Unlike you two fellas I'm still open minded about this.

I've been open minded, put in the time/research, and concluded that Williams is the better option for our franchise.

That’s not what open minded means lol…and OUCH on those rushing numbers, makes the case even worse bud!

[G08]

Caleb Williams rushed for 966 yards and 27 TDs (37 games)
Baker Mayfield rushed for 1,083 yards and 21 TDs (48 games)
Kyler Murray rushed for 1,478 yards and 13 TDs (29 games)



I've been open minded, put in the time/research, and concluded that Williams is the better option for our franchise.

That’s not what open minded means lol…and OUCH on those rushing numbers, makes the case even worse bud!

Plank you flat-out told me you haven't even watched Williams play... how are you going to say you're "open minded" when you haven't even seen what he does on a football field? Come on now

[The Marshall Plan]

Jay Glazer told Williams' camp that if he succeeds in Chicago, he'll have streets and bridges named after him and he won't be able to field all the endorsement offers that come his way.

Or he will be another in a long line of highly regarded prospects that the Bears failed to develop.

Some people are walking back their Mahomes comps and moving more towards Russell Wilson comps. IDK if that moves the needled one way or another for people, but prime Russell Wilson was a thing to behold.

Especially when he had the Legion Of Boom to help him out too!

Oh wait!

[G08]

I've been open minded, put in the time/research, and concluded that Williams is the better option for our franchise.

There is no way, at all, that a mentally weak momma’s boy who went 1-5 in the back half of his final year of college football is better than the following:

Star Player
24R1
24R2
25R1
25R2

I don't think Fields can run Waldron's offense, at least not the way Geno Smith (!!!) did in 2022 and 2023. It's a sad realization.

[The Marshall Plan]

There is no way, at all, that a mentally weak momma’s boy who went 1-5 in the back half of his final year of college football is better than the following:

Star Player
24R1
24R2
25R1
25R2

I don't think Fields can run Waldron's offense, at least not the way Geno Smith (!!!) did in 2022 and 2023. It's a sad realization.

Based on what?

[dplank]

That’s not what open minded means lol…and OUCH on those rushing numbers, makes the case even worse bud!

Plank you flat-out told me you haven't even watched Williams play... how are you going to say you're "open minded" when you haven't even seen what he does on a football field? Come on now

As I’ve told you repeatedly, my concerns aren’t about his skills it’s about his character. I won’t learn anything new by larping like I’m a college scout on YouTube lol. You are kidding yourself dude, pros can’t forecast these guys into the NFL with any certainty at all but you think you can? Get a grip.

I’m open minded because I’m 65/35 on this, I can see both sides. I’m also loyal, so that probably artificially tilts the scale towards Fields in my head. I honestly think you are just bandwagon jumping here, but will welcome you back if we keep Justin.

[Moriarty]

So I'll just repeat my main point for a third time here, all I need to do is cut/paste from my prior post. It wasn't my opening remark about why I decided to look into this, it is "The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb."

The guy before John Elway at Stanford (Turk Schonert) put up better numbers than Elway.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1979 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 148 221 67 1927 8.7 9.2 19 6 163.2

1980 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 248 379 65.4 2889 7.6 7.7 27 11 147.2
1981 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 214 366 58.5 2674 7.3 6.8 20 13 130.8
1982 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 262 405 64.7 3242 8 7.9 24 12 145.6

Schonert was drafted in what would now be the 7th round and had 12 career NFL starts



We used to hear all the time about how "Chris Simms couldn't even beat out Major Applewhite for a starting job", and Applewhite's stats were pretty comparable.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1998 Texas Big 12 QB 11 159 273 58.2 2453 9 8.5 18 11 147.4
1999 Texas Big 12 QB 13 271 467 58 3357 7.2 7.2 21 9 129.4
2000 Texas Big 12 JR QB 9 152 279 54.5 2164 7.8 7.9 18 7 135.9

2001 Texas Big 12 JR QB 12 214 362 59.1 2603 7.2 7 22 11 133.5
2002 Texas Big 12 SR QB 13 235 396 59.3 3207 8.1 8 26 12 143

Simms was a decent pro prospect, drafted in R3, got to play in his 2nd year and had a promising season before literally almost dying on the field in yr 3 and barely ever playing again.
Applewhite got a UDFA invite that he ultimately declined, because he knew it was a waste of time, and never saw an NFL practice field.

College stats have limited usefulness in projecting to the pros and not even a small fraction of the import you're attaching to them.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

So I'll just repeat my main point for a third time here, all I need to do is cut/paste from my prior post. It wasn't my opening remark about why I decided to look into this, it is "The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb."

The guy before John Elway at Stanford (Turk Schonert) put up better numbers than Elway.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1979 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 148 221 67 1927 8.7 9.2 19 6 163.2

1980 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 248 379 65.4 2889 7.6 7.7 27 11 147.2
1981 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 214 366 58.5 2674 7.3 6.8 20 13 130.8
1982 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 262 405 64.7 3242 8 7.9 24 12 145.6

Schonert was drafted in what would now be the 7th round and had 12 career NFL starts



We used to hear all the time about how "Chris Simms couldn't even beat out Major Applewhite for a starting job", and Applewhite's stats were pretty comparable.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1998 Texas Big 12 QB 11 159 273 58.2 2453 9 8.5 18 11 147.4
1999 Texas Big 12 QB 13 271 467 58 3357 7.2 7.2 21 9 129.4
2000 Texas Big 12 JR QB 9 152 279 54.5 2164 7.8 7.9 18 7 135.9

2001 Texas Big 12 JR QB 12 214 362 59.1 2603 7.2 7 22 11 133.5
2002 Texas Big 12 SR QB 13 235 396 59.3 3207 8.1 8 26 12 143

Simms was a decent pro prospect, drafted in R3, got to play in his 2nd year and had a promising season before literally almost dying on the field in yr 3 and barely ever playing again.
Applewhite got a UDFA invite that he ultimately declined, because he knew it was a waste of time, and never saw an NFL practice field.

College stats have limited usefulness in projecting to the pros and not even a small fraction of the import you're attaching to them.

Hey, man, he's just asking questions. He's got no agenda - he's just 100% open-minded. He'll tell you so.

[wab]

There is no way, at all, that a mentally weak momma’s boy who went 1-5 in the back half of his final year of college football is better than the following:

Star Player
24R1
24R2
25R1
25R2

I don't think Fields can run Waldron's offense, at least not the way Geno Smith (!!!) did in 2022 and 2023. It's a sad realization.

Based on what I have read about Waldron's offense, it's a rhythm and tempo offense based on short to intermediate routes over the middle. He also prefers his QB to operate under center and doesn't use many deep drops. He generally keeps the drops at 3 to 5 steps, so the ball has to come out quick.

These are not things that Fields has shown are his strengths to date. That's not to say Waldron won't tailor what he's implementing to Field's strengths. For example, deep ball accuracy is very important in Waldron's system.

I think Fields can run any offense...it just depends on what they ask him to do within it.

[Otis Day]

Article on CW's character. Yates can't find anything wrong with his character

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-inside ... 04435.html

[dplank]

So I'll just repeat my main point for a third time here, all I need to do is cut/paste from my prior post. It wasn't my opening remark about why I decided to look into this, it is "The point that the CW stans have been making over and over is that this guy is a "John Elway" level prospect, different than prior #1 QB's who weren't at his level. And yet, when you compare against two other #1 drafted QB's who ironically played in the exact same system for the exact same coach, they outperformed Caleb."

The guy before John Elway at Stanford (Turk Schonert) put up better numbers than Elway.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1979 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 148 221 67 1927 8.7 9.2 19 6 163.2

1980 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 248 379 65.4 2889 7.6 7.7 27 11 147.2
1981 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 214 366 58.5 2674 7.3 6.8 20 13 130.8
1982 Stanford Pac-10 QB 11 262 405 64.7 3242 8 7.9 24 12 145.6

Schonert was drafted in what would now be the 7th round and had 12 career NFL starts



We used to hear all the time about how "Chris Simms couldn't even beat out Major Applewhite for a starting job", and Applewhite's stats were pretty comparable.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1998 Texas Big 12 QB 11 159 273 58.2 2453 9 8.5 18 11 147.4
1999 Texas Big 12 QB 13 271 467 58 3357 7.2 7.2 21 9 129.4
2000 Texas Big 12 JR QB 9 152 279 54.5 2164 7.8 7.9 18 7 135.9

2001 Texas Big 12 JR QB 12 214 362 59.1 2603 7.2 7 22 11 133.5
2002 Texas Big 12 SR QB 13 235 396 59.3 3207 8.1 8 26 12 143

Simms was a decent pro prospect, drafted in R3, got to play in his 2nd year and had a promising season before literally almost dying on the field in yr 3 and barely ever playing again.
Applewhite got a UDFA invite that he ultimately declined, because he knew it was a waste of time, and never saw an NFL practice field.

College stats have limited usefulness in projecting to the pros and not even a small fraction of the import you're attaching to them.

I actually agree with this Moriarty. Where I disagree with folks is that I don’t believe ANYTHING is all that useful in projecting to the pros. Stats, arm strength, etc none of it works, hence why pros fail at this constantly.

Internet board posters certainly don’t have any secret here, that’s what I’m poking at.

[G08]

Plank you flat-out told me you haven't even watched Williams play... how are you going to say you're "open minded" when you haven't even seen what he does on a football field? Come on now

As I’ve told you repeatedly, my concerns aren’t about his skills it’s about his character. I won’t learn anything new by larping like I’m a college scout on YouTube lol. You are kidding yourself dude, pros can’t forecast these guys into the NFL with any certainty at all but you think you can? Get a grip.

I’m open minded because I’m 65/35 on this, I can see both sides. I’m also loyal, so that probably artificially tilts the scale towards Fields in my head. I honestly think you are just bandwagon jumping here, but will welcome you back if we keep Justin.

If anyone on the planet could accurately forecast QBs, they'd be billionaires. I don't fancy myself some QB shaman

That being said I don't think it's difficult to see the talent Caleb Williams has and recognize it's not something that is available to bring to your every year...

[G08]

I don't think Fields can run Waldron's offense, at least not the way Geno Smith (!!!) did in 2022 and 2023. It's a sad realization.

Based on what?

Based on the throws Waldron asked his QBs to make in Seattle. A lot of ANTICIPATION (!!!) and trust throws for big plays.

That's not to say Waldron can't design a different offense for Justin, mind you, but an "apples to apples" comparison doesn't portend Justin as an ideal fit.