Bears sign RB D'Andre Swift to 3yr, $24M contract

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dplank
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Agree - people are gonna forget about the money when we are watching him tear up defenses
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The Marshall Plan
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I have an idea.

Let’s just never pay anybody again. Let’s graph every contract in some kind of a matrix and talk ourselves out of every potential FA, internal and external, forever.

Then we can sit here and act holier than thou about how teams should only be built through the draft and the only FAs we should sign are hometown guys willing to take a discount.

Also, fuck the Giants. They gave Jones all that money right? So what in the fuck makes them the arbiter what a good deal looks like?
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dplank wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 1:17 pm Agree - people are gonna forget about the money when we are watching him tear up defenses
I promise you I will be cheering for him. But I won't forget. I'll never forget that Poles paid that much for a damn running back.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 1:22 pm I have an idea.

Let’s just never pay anybody again.
As long as those anybody's are running backs, inside linebackers and backup QBs, I'm on board.

Somebody has to get the shaft and that's who I pick.
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HurricaneBear wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:55 pm
dplank wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 1:17 pm Agree - people are gonna forget about the money when we are watching him tear up defenses
I promise you I will be cheering for him. But I won't forget. I'll never forget that Poles paid that much for a damn running back.
It really doesn't seem excessive to be honest.
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RichH55 wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 3:00 pm
HurricaneBear wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:55 pm

I promise you I will be cheering for him. But I won't forget. I'll never forget that Poles paid that much for a damn running back.
It really doesn't seem excessive to be honest.
I'm probably contradicting something I've said earlier, and I still don't think that RB is a great position to spend big on, the difference between paying top 3/5 money on a position and top 10 is really significant.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

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Z Bear
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If you can sign a top tier RB for $10M a year or a 3rd rate WR#3 for $10M per year.....which one would make your offense better? Some of you need to justify the signing like that.
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dplank
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Swift is the 8th highest paid RB, but there's a huge cliff after the top 3 or 4 guys. Swift only makes 3M more than highly drafted guys on rookie deals like Jhamir Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, so the draft isn't saving a ton here as the position itself has become so devalued. Also worth noting that after C and QB, the RB will touch the ball more than any other player on the team - it's important to have a good one.

At 25, Swift is also 1 of 2 (the other also 25) youngest non-rookies in the Top 25 paid RB's. The other is Jonathan Taylor who makes a lot more. There's those same two rookies in the Top 25 also. Swift was a smart signing IMO for all these reasons.

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back
Last edited by dplank on Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:42 am Swift is the 8th highest paid RB, but there's a huge cliff after the top 3 or 4 guys. Swift only makes 3M more than highly drafted guys on rookie deals like Jhamir Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, so the draft isn't saving a ton here as the position itself has become so devalued. Also worth noting that after C and QB, the RB will touch the ball more than any other player on the team - it's important to have a good one.

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back
This is a very solid take
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dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:42 am Swift is the 8th highest paid RB, but there's a huge cliff after the top 3 or 4 guys. Swift only makes 3M more than highly drafted guys on rookie deals like Jhamir Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, so the draft isn't saving a ton here as the position itself has become so devalued. Also worth noting that after C and QB, the RB will touch the ball more than any other player on the team - it's important to have a good one.

At 25, Swift is also 1 of 2 (the other also 25) youngest non-rookies in the Top 25 paid RB's. The other is Jonathan Taylor who makes a lot more. There's those same two rookies in the Top 25 also. Swift was a smart signing IMO for all these reasons.

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back
This is what I meant to say, I just phrased my post really poorly lol.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
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malk wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:17 am
dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:42 am Swift is the 8th highest paid RB, but there's a huge cliff after the top 3 or 4 guys. Swift only makes 3M more than highly drafted guys on rookie deals like Jhamir Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, so the draft isn't saving a ton here as the position itself has become so devalued. Also worth noting that after C and QB, the RB will touch the ball more than any other player on the team - it's important to have a good one.

At 25, Swift is also 1 of 2 (the other also 25) youngest non-rookies in the Top 25 paid RB's. The other is Jonathan Taylor who makes a lot more. There's those same two rookies in the Top 25 also. Swift was a smart signing IMO for all these reasons.

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back
This is what I meant to say, I just phrased my post really poorly lol.
I do that a lot around here. I just get to typing in stream of consciousness and I understand what I was trying to say. Then someone comes along that takes some time and proofs what they are posting and I go "yeah, what he said."
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The role of the RB is coming around again. If we spent a top pick on one we'd be obligated to a four year deal for around the same money and wouldn't have the same assurance of NFL level production as Swift provides. Or we can keep drafting backs on day three and accept that most will have some kind of hole in their game much like Herbert does and in reality he was a very good pick despite that.
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Bearfacts wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:45 am The role of the RB is coming around again. If we spent a top pick on one we'd be obligated to a four year deal for around the same money and wouldn't have the same assurance of NFL level production as Swift provides. Or we can keep drafting backs on day three and accept that most will have some kind of hole in their game much like Herbert does and in reality he was a very good pick despite that.
I think the RB is coming back again with RBs who can catch the ball effectively. If they can't do that, they can never really have an expanded role. Swift can do that, so I'm not up in arms about his contract. I think it's a bit more than I would have expected Poles to throw at the RB spot, but it's not insane type money.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:54 am
Bearfacts wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:45 am The role of the RB is coming around again. If we spent a top pick on one we'd be obligated to a four year deal for around the same money and wouldn't have the same assurance of NFL level production as Swift provides. Or we can keep drafting backs on day three and accept that most will have some kind of hole in their game much like Herbert does and in reality he was a very good pick despite that.
I think the RB is coming back again with RBs who can catch the ball effectively. If they can't do that, they can never really have an expanded role. Swift can do that, so I'm not up in arms about his contract. I think it's a bit more than I would have expected Poles to throw at the RB spot, but it's not insane type money.
No it's not especially since only $14 mil is guaranteed. Swift has no guaranteed money after year two vs a highly drafted RB who'd have four years of guaranteed money. We've had too many other needs to have spent a high pick on a RB so to me this works as well as can be expected as far as getting the kind of production they want from a #1 RB.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:54 am
Bearfacts wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:45 am The role of the RB is coming around again. If we spent a top pick on one we'd be obligated to a four year deal for around the same money and wouldn't have the same assurance of NFL level production as Swift provides. Or we can keep drafting backs on day three and accept that most will have some kind of hole in their game much like Herbert does and in reality he was a very good pick despite that.
I think the RB is coming back again with RBs who can catch the ball effectively. If they can't do that, they can never really have an expanded role. Swift can do that, so I'm not up in arms about his contract. I think it's a bit more than I would have expected Poles to throw at the RB spot, but it's not insane type money.
A RB catching the ball is typically as an outlet/swing or safety valve option. Their value in the passing game is primarily as a smart pass blocker. They have to be able to read defenses, see how a defense initially rushes the passer as well as tendencies for delayed pass rush, scan how the OL is defending and then decide where he can best either protect the QB or go out as another receiving option. This all has to be done in about two seconds. Rookies struggle with this and while RoJo is a big kid and tried hard, he made his mistakes.

I hope Swift can use his experience and be effective in the passing game. It's one of the reasons I miss David Montgomery. He may not have had breakaway speed but he was an effective pass blocker and could gain some yards if he ever got a pass thrown his way. Detroit is using him effectively to their benefit while their rookie first round RB learns the ropes.
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Another thing to consider here with FA RB's vs drafting them is that if you draft a RB high to try and get a good one, then you really don't save that much cap over the term of a rookie contract relative to signing an established vet RB that's in that 5-10 in the league range. You might save 12M or so over the entire 4 years of the deal? But if you draft a premium position there instead, like DE or CB, that pay gap to sign a FA in the same 5-10 range is massive and you could save as much as 40M over the same 4 years. So it doesn't pay to draft one in the first couple rounds either. And if you say "OK, I"ll just grab them later in the draft", then the odds of getting a real difference maker at the position is slim. You can guarantee that result with a move like the Swift signing - he's a guaranteed good player if he's healthy.
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As someone who believes in not paying running backs, we don't believe in drafting them high either. Stop with this crazy talk. A second rounder sure but a 1st on a RB? Put the drink down.

The day Poles drafts a RB with our 1st round pick is the day you need to send an ambulance to HurricaneBear's house because I'll need one.
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HurricaneBear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 pm As someone who believes in not paying running backs, we don't believe in drafting them high either. Stop with this crazy talk. A second rounder sure but a 1st on a RB? Put the drink down.

The day Poles drafts a RB with our 1st round pick is the day you need to send an ambulance to HurricaneBear's house because I'll need one.
lol...we did have folks clamoring for us to draft Bijan last year...I agree though that I'd never do it. I'm happy with what we did. Although, I bet Detroit is happy they drafted Gibbs, that dude is going to be a terror.
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dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:30 pm
HurricaneBear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 pm As someone who believes in not paying running backs, we don't believe in drafting them high either. Stop with this crazy talk. A second rounder sure but a 1st on a RB? Put the drink down.

The day Poles drafts a RB with our 1st round pick is the day you need to send an ambulance to HurricaneBear's house because I'll need one.
lol...we did have folks clamoring for us to draft Bijan last year...I agree though that I'd never do it. I'm happy with what we did. Although, I bet Detroit is happy they drafted Gibbs, that dude is going to be a terror.
I pounded the table for Bijan.

Can you imagine this offense with that guy as RB1?

Caleb
Bijan
Moore
Allen
Odunze
Kmet

That's the #1 offense in the league.
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dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:40 pm Another thing to consider here with FA RB's vs drafting them is that if you draft a RB high to try and get a good one, then you really don't save that much cap over the term of a rookie contract relative to signing an established vet RB that's in that 5-10 in the league range. You might save 12M or so over the entire 4 years of the deal? But if you draft a premium position there instead, like DE or CB, that pay gap to sign a FA in the same 5-10 range is massive and you could save as much as 40M over the same 4 years. So it doesn't pay to draft one in the first couple rounds either. And if you say "OK, I"ll just grab them later in the draft", then the odds of getting a real difference maker at the position is slim. You can guarantee that result with a move like the Swift signing - he's a guaranteed good player if he's healthy.
Put this in a folder labeled "Things that few consider". There is a reason why positions that tend to be the costliest are better to draft than to acquire in FA. We should also consider that the NYG were considering signing Swift to replace Barkley so it's not as if we had no competition.
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spudbear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:33 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:54 am

I think the RB is coming back again with RBs who can catch the ball effectively. If they can't do that, they can never really have an expanded role. Swift can do that, so I'm not up in arms about his contract. I think it's a bit more than I would have expected Poles to throw at the RB spot, but it's not insane type money.
A RB catching the ball is typically as an outlet/swing or safety valve option. Their value in the passing game is primarily as a smart pass blocker. They have to be able to read defenses, see how a defense initially rushes the passer as well as tendencies for delayed pass rush, scan how the OL is defending and then decide where he can best either protect the QB or go out as another receiving option. This all has to be done in about two seconds. Rookies struggle with this and while RoJo is a big kid and tried hard, he made his mistakes.

I hope Swift can use his experience and be effective in the passing game. It's one of the reasons I miss David Montgomery. He may not have had breakaway speed but he was an effective pass blocker and could gain some yards if he ever got a pass thrown his way. Detroit is using him effectively to their benefit while their rookie first round RB learns the ropes.
Pass blocking is a MUST. If a RB can’t do that he can’t be on the field a ton IMO
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:58 pm
dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:30 pm

lol...we did have folks clamoring for us to draft Bijan last year...I agree though that I'd never do it. I'm happy with what we did. Although, I bet Detroit is happy they drafted Gibbs, that dude is going to be a terror.
I pounded the table for Bijan.

Can you imagine this offense with that guy as RB1?

Caleb
Bijan
Moore
Allen
Odunze
Kmet

That's the #1 offense in the league.
That would be nice other than huge hole at RT.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:36 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:58 pm

I pounded the table for Bijan.

Can you imagine this offense with that guy as RB1?

Caleb
Bijan
Moore
Allen
Odunze
Kmet

That's the #1 offense in the league.
That would be nice other than huge hole at RT.
Yup. Bijan running behind Borom or Swift running behind Wright? Not a hard decision.

For as much as fans have bitched about the Bears never investing in the OL when they finally do why is it necessary to find fault? Offenses need more than just great skill players. RBs can't block for themselves and we got Robinson's running mate anyway. I think he's gonna surprise some people.
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Yea agree with you guys here...having Wright and Jones on rookie contracts is a big cap savings. Having Bijan on a rookie deal is barely any savings at all, and I'm not convinced he's all that much better than Swift.
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HurricaneBear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 pm As someone who believes in not paying running backs, we don't believe in drafting them high either. Stop with this crazy talk. A second rounder sure but a 1st on a RB? Put the drink down.

The day Poles drafts a RB with our 1st round pick is the day you need to send an ambulance to HurricaneBear's house because I'll need one.
I'm with you on the no HB in 1st - basically ever.

But - let's play out your 2nd Rounder scenario - to see how it stacks up against your dislike of the Middle Class HB Free Agent

I arbitrarily picked #40 in the draft from 2023 (Foskey) - Took his 4 years guaranteed (8.8ish) and rounded up to 9 for math purposes and because picks tend to rise every year

Swift is 3 years, 24 (best case - and lets go with the best case!) so it's not apples to apples just yet - So lets say 7 million in Cap Room on the 2nd Round Rookie for the 3 Years

OK. Now the NFL comes to you and says: You have 2 options.

1) We give you an extra ~5.7 Million in Cap Room per year for the Next 3 Years for a total of $17 million in Cap Room over that 3 year period
OR

2). You Get the 40th Pick in the Draft

Which side are you taking?
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RichH55 wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:22 am
HurricaneBear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 pm As someone who believes in not paying running backs, we don't believe in drafting them high either. Stop with this crazy talk. A second rounder sure but a 1st on a RB? Put the drink down.

The day Poles drafts a RB with our 1st round pick is the day you need to send an ambulance to HurricaneBear's house because I'll need one.
I'm with you on the no HB in 1st - basically ever.

But - let's play out your 2nd Rounder scenario - to see how it stacks up against your dislike of the Middle Class HB Free Agent

I arbitrarily picked #40 in the draft from 2023 (Foskey) - Took his 4 years guaranteed (8.8ish) and rounded up to 9 for math purposes and because picks tend to rise every year

Swift is 3 years, 24 (best case - and lets go with the best case!) so it's not apples to apples just yet - So lets say 7 million in Cap Room on the 2nd Round Rookie for the 3 Years

OK. Now the NFL comes to you and says: You have 2 options.

1) We give you an extra ~5.7 Million in Cap Room per year for the Next 3 Years for a total of $17 million in Cap Room over that 3 year period
OR

2). You Get the 40th Pick in the Draft

Which side are you taking?
Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
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HurricaneBear wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:59 pm Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
It's an interesting perspective, so I looked up all the RBs drafted in R2 between 2016 and 2019 i.e. those who have completed their 4-year rookie period and have therefore been eligible for a second contract. I wanted to see how they got on while on their rookie deal and then after.

2016

Derrick Henry (#45)
2016: 15 games, 490 yards rushing (4.5 ypc), 13 receptions for 137 yards, 5 TD
2017: 16 games, 744 yards rushing (4.2 ypc), 11 receptions for 136 yards, 6TD
2018: 16 games, 1059 yards rushing (4.9ypc), 15 receptions for 99 yards, 12 TD
2019: 15 games, 1540 yards rushing (5.1 ypc), 16 receptions for 206 yards, 18 TD
-
2020: 16 games, 2027 yards rushing (5.4 ypc), 19 receptions for 114 yards, 17 TD
2021: 8 games, 937 yards rushing (4.3 ypc), 18 receptions for 154 yards, 10 TD
2022: 16 games, 1538 yards rushing (4.4 ypc), 33 receptions for 398 yards, 13 TD
2023: 17 games, 1167 yards rushing (4.2 ypc), 28 receptions for 214 yards, 12 TD

2017

Dalvin Cook (#41)
2017: 4 games, 354 yards rushing (4.8 ypc), 11 receptions for 90 yards, 2 TD
2018: 11 games, 615 yards rushing (4.6 ypc), 40 receptions for 305 yards, 4 TD
2019: 14 games, 1135 yards rushing (4.5 ypc), 53 receptions for 519 yards, 13 TD
2020: 14 games, 1557 yards rushing (4.7 ypc), 44 receptions for 361 yards, 17 TD
-
2021: 13 games, 1159 yards rushing (4.7 ypc), 34 receptions for 224 yards, 6 TD
2022: 17 games, 1173 yards rushing (4.4 ypc), 39 receptions for 295 yards, 10 TD
2023: 15 games, 214 yards rushing (3.2 ypc), 15 receptions for 78 yards, 0 TD

Joe Mixon (#48)
2017: 14 games, 626 yards rushing (3.5 ypc), 30 receptions for 287 yards, 4 TD
2018: 14 games, 1168 yards rushing (4.9 ypc), 43 receptions for 296 yards, 9 TD
2019: 16 games, 1137 yards rushing (4.1 ypc), 35 receptions for 287 yards, 8 TD
2020: 6 games, 428 yards rushing (3.6 ypc), 21 receptions for 138 yards, 4 TD
-
2021: 16 games, 1205 yards rushing (4.1 ypc), 42 receptions for 314 yards, 16 TD
2022: 14 games, 814 yards rushing (3.9 ypc), 60 receptions for 441 yards, 9 TD
2023: 17 games, 1034 yards rushing (4.0 ypc), 52 receptions for 376 yards, 12 TD

2018

Nick Chubb (#35)
2018: 16 games, 996 yards rushing (5.2 ypc), 20 receptions for 149 yards, 10 TD
2019: 16 games, 1494 yards rushing (5.0 ypc), 36 receptions for 278 yards, 8 TD
2020: 12 games, 1067 yards rushing (5.6 ypc), 16 receptions for 150 yards, 12 TD
2021: 14 games, 1259 yards rushing (5.0 ypc), 20 receptions for 174 yards, 9 TD
-
2022: 17 games, 1525 yards rushing (5.0 ypc), 27 receptions for 239 yards, 13 TD
2023: 2 games, 170 yards rushing (6.1 ypc), 4 receptions for 21 yards, 0 TD

Ronald Jones II (#38)
2018: 9 games, 44 yards rushing (1.9 ypc), 7 receptions for 33 yards, 1 TD
2019: 16 games, 724 yards rushing (4.2 ypc), 31 receptions for 309 yards, 6 TD
2020: 14 games, 978 yards rushing (5.1 ypc), 28 receptions for 165 yards, 8 TD
2021: 16 games, 428 yards rushing (4.2 ypc), 10 receptions for 64 yards, 4 TD
-
2022: 6 games, 70 yards rushing (4.1 ypc) 1 receptions for 22 yards, 1 TD
2023: 2 game suspension then cut

Kerryon Johnson (#43)
2018: 10 games, 641 yards rushing (5.4 ypc), 32 receptions for 213 yards, 4 TD
2019: 8 games, 403 yards rushing (3.6 ypc), 10 receptions for 127 yards, 4 TD
2020: 16 games, 181 yards rushing (3.5 ypc), 19 receptions for 187 yards, 3 TD
2021: 1 game, 0 stats
-
Career over.

Derrius Guice (#59)
2018: Tore ACL in preseason
2019: 5 games, 245 yards rushing (5.8 ypc), 7 receptions for 79 yards, 3 TD
Career over.

2019
Miles Sanders (#53)
2019: 16 games, 818 yards rushing (4.6 ypc), 50 receptions for 509 yards, 6 TD
2020: 12 games, 867 yards rushing (5.3 ypc), 28 receptions for 197 yards, 6 TD
2021: 12 games, 754 yards rushing (5.5 ypc), 26 receptions for 158 yards, 0 TD
2022: 17 games, 1269 yards rushing (4.9 ypc), 20 receptions for 78 yards, 11 TD
-
2023: 16 games, 129 yard rushing (3.3 ypc), 27 receptions for 154 yards, 1 TD

What these stats appear to indicate is that R2 RBs tend to get off to modest starts in their first year and don't really hit their stride until Year 3. Not all R2 RBs are successful. Those that are successful tend to carry that success on into their next contract.

So if you do draft a good RB in R2 then it looks like they're worth retaining on a second contract. Replacing them with another R2 RB runs a significant risk of landing a dud.
Even if you do hit on another they're not likely to be a lead back for the first year or two but part of a rotation so you better have a good RB stable given, in the hypothetical situation proposed, you're replacing a lead back.
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G08
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Some love for our guy:
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears: Swift revitalized his career in Philadelphia with 1,049 rushing yards and a Pro Bowl nod. "Had the soft label [in Detroit] but overcame that," an NFL running backs coach said. "[He's] really elusive in space, burst, really good speed. [He] does a nice job catching out of the backfield."
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9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS
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RichH55
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HurricaneBear wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:59 pm
RichH55 wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:22 am

I'm with you on the no HB in 1st - basically ever.

But - let's play out your 2nd Rounder scenario - to see how it stacks up against your dislike of the Middle Class HB Free Agent

I arbitrarily picked #40 in the draft from 2023 (Foskey) - Took his 4 years guaranteed (8.8ish) and rounded up to 9 for math purposes and because picks tend to rise every year

Swift is 3 years, 24 (best case - and lets go with the best case!) so it's not apples to apples just yet - So lets say 7 million in Cap Room on the 2nd Round Rookie for the 3 Years

OK. Now the NFL comes to you and says: You have 2 options.

1) We give you an extra ~5.7 Million in Cap Room per year for the Next 3 Years for a total of $17 million in Cap Room over that 3 year period
OR

2). You Get the 40th Pick in the Draft

Which side are you taking?
Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
Not what I was saying. ( Also I don't really have a lot of issue paying for a guys Age 25/26 seasons - but that's a different discussion)

Basically I am asking - What would you pay for a 2nd Round pick? (I think you might counter that maybe it's more of a 3rd Round pick?)

Swift is gonna cost you Cap Room - yes. He won't cost a draft pick though.

So you either get an additional $17 million (TOTAL) in Cap Room over that 3 year period

OR

a 2nd Round pick
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RichH55 wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:30 am
HurricaneBear wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:59 pm

Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
Not what I was saying. ( Also I don't really have a lot of issue paying for a guys Age 25/26 seasons - but that's a different discussion)

Basically I am asking - What would you pay for a 2nd Round pick? (I think you might counter that maybe it's more of a 3rd Round pick?)

Swift is gonna cost you Cap Room - yes. He won't cost a draft pick though.

So you either get an additional $17 million (TOTAL) in Cap Room over that 3 year period

OR

a 2nd Round pick
I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. I think you have to look at the overall value you get to the team.

I understand we didn't have a second round pick this year, but since that seems to be the starting point of when to consider drafting a RB, I'll use that in my example.

Let's say a team needs to add a RB. They look over the players they think will be there with their second round pick and who they can sign as a FA. Of course the risk with waiting until the draft is what are you doing if the guys you thought would be there go earlier and you are left with an empty bag or reaching on a player.

The team also has some money to spend in FA and likely needs to address some spots other than RB.

So what make the team better:

1. Signing the FA RB with the money you have and use the draft pick to address another need, or

2. Plan on using the draft pick on the RB and spend the money on different spots on FAs?

The Swift singing is not some obscene contract that could have crippling effects if he doesn't pan out. Poles felt the need to upgrade the spot and I think Swift does that our second round pick ended up being Sweat. So as it relates to this team, I guess we could have not traded for Sweat, used that pick on a RB and signed????????? with the money we gave Swift (for arguments sake I guess we could have taken a lot of what we gave Sweat and gone after Hunter). But once by not trading for Sweat you risk having Hunter (or whoever they want) deciding not come to the Bears. Granted after trading for Sweat you had the risk he would walk, but throwing a ton on money at a guy who has an expiring contract tends to get them motivated as they don't want to risk injury and getting a much small contract.

IMO Swift + Sweat > second round RB + whatever DE they could have signed.
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