IOL thoughts

[dplank]

I was looking at our 5 year roster projection on Spotrac: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/yearly/cap/

Specifically looking for where we have pending roster issues at particular position groups, to get a feel for where Poles may focus some attention in the draft. Once we take CW at 1, we look pretty good at most position groups for at least 2 years but IOL is jumping out at me as a future problem.

Our top spend is on Nate Davis, he's locked in for 2 seasons whether we like him or not lol. Tev is on the last year of his deal and is going to get paid big money. Bates is in for 4M for 2 seasons, so he could step into Tev's spot but that would be a downgrade - I see Bates as a low end starter / high end backup IOL. But after 2 years, they are ALL gone - even Carter. And Shelton. This is an area that needs investment.

I don't know if Tev is up for it, but an extension now could save us money by leveraging a pay bump this year with our ample cap space where he's set to earn 2.6M - based on current market value he's a 18-20M player. I'd love to lock him in for a 4 year deal to keep an anchor up front that increases his 2024 number while reducing the rest and getting us to something like a 15M AAV? I think we need to draft into this position group as well, but since we have 2 years we could take a developmental guy.

[cblaz11]

I just don’t know if TJ is the kind of guy I’m willing to pay 15 mill or more per season…health and to be honest, love of the game/drive are serious concerns.

Big picture…this team is going to be able to afford anything they want to do over the next 3 years. If Caleb Williams is legit, we’re in great shape.

[Grizzled]

The Bears could draft both a C and a G and it would be beneficial. Zak Zinter, G, Michigan, suffered a season-ending injury late in the year and probably will be available in the 4th or possibly 5th rounds; he could be a target if the Bears get more picks. Sit him for a red-shirt year. Unless the Bears snag Powers-Johnson with a first round trade down, they're looking at one of the other centers but they need to draft a young guy to bring along also.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Projecting more than 2 years down the line in the NFL is pretty tough to do because you never know what will happen injury and performance-wise with players so I'm not too worried but I certainly wouldn't say no to more investment in the O-line. Landing a top center in the draft would make me very happy.

I'm with @dplank regarding an extension for Jenkins. His injuries have been frustrating but it wasn't his back that caused him to miss games last season. He's put a lot of effort into addressing that issue including taking up pilates. Strained calves and a game missed due to a concussion don't overly concern me and neither does his drive and attitude. The fact is he stands out a mile on tape. He plays aggressively, wins consistently, helps out the guys either side of him, always looks for work and pancakes guys. It's been a long time since the Bears have had a lineman as good as him.

The good news on Davis is he's only locked in for one year not two @dplank. He only has a $2m dead cap number for 2025. If he does play well and is retained then he carries an $11.5m cap hit which as things stand would be the 21st largest and that's bound to drop after free agency next year.

This year the Bears currently invest the 20th most cap space on the O-line and that's with 3 guys, including both starting OTs, on rookie deals.

[LacertineForest]

The good news on Davis is he's only locked in for one year not two @dplank. He only has a $2m dead cap number for 2025. If he does play well and is retained then he carries an $11.5m cap hit which as things stand would be the 21st largest and that's bound to drop after free agency next year.

Yeah, the structure on the Davis contract gave Poles the perfect out after this year. It'd be nice to have some good, young IOL talent in the pipeline to replace him, but barring a draft pick this year, Bates is probably the closest thing. Could always go FA next year, but if they're also moving on from Jenkins (and Shelton will also be a FA next year), that could get expensive. Draft is set up well for next year with the additional 2nd rounder, so that could be the play, too, if there's a guy who they think can start day 1.

[dplank]

That's good for the Davis deal, I didn't look deeper into the Spotrac top level view of their contract values. At 11M, he can be a middle of the road type guard and that's fair value. The guard market just really got out of hand this offseason.

I would certainly extend Jenkins before bringing in a FA. There just aren't that many guys out there with the physical presence he brings to an OL, he's special in that regard and a tone setter for the entire offense. He has been fairly healthy for the past two seasons, his rookie back issue appears to be behind him. I'm not worried about the strained calf or one game missed from getting his bell rung, he's proven to be durable enough for an extension.

[Noots]

Lots of T. Jenkins talk here, which is fun. Love watching him play. But I don’t know how I would feel about the deal you’ve thrown out there dplank, and one of the key reasons is availability. One of the others, relatedly is concussions. Concussions are always serious and shouldn’t be downplayed. Further, as an OL, you have way more subconcussive hits, which over time have proven to be more impactful than “having your bell rung” like a safety might (at least ones who hit people for a living—parting EJ shot). He’s a good player at OG, but I wouldn’t fall all over myself if his asks come contract time outstrip his value. And he got exposed late in the year just like almost everyone else on the line. I think Poles was wise to load up on some experienced FA IOL. We gotta honestly ask ourselves is he going to be someone we should invest in long-term or not, or is he someone we look at like a Chris Sale, who just watching him throw made you think he was going to break down at some date really soon.

Maybe a compromise and some playing time incentives wrapped into the deal? I’d be all for that. I enjoy watching him play.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

And guards grow on trees

[Bearfacts]

Mine are not much different than others have expressed. Jenkins is a potential All Pro OG but we also know that Poles treasures availability nearly equally with raw ability. I agree that it might be smart to at least begin some negotiations on an extension for him to see where they lead. We know that Poles will have a number for gtd $$$ and terms already in his mind. What I'm less certain of is whether or not Poles will choose to wait until the season begins to see how available Jenkins is. Given his injury history I'm guessing the negotiations could hit a wall early on as they did with JJ. IMHO he's gonna need to prove he can play an entire season in 2024.

So Jenkins is probably priority number one to sort through. Davis will either get his act together and play like he as expected to last season or Poles will let him go in 2025. He has his two OT on rookie deals and with a QB also on a rookie deal for up to 5 years he should have ample cap space in the near future to add FA help to the IOL if needed. One thing that I don't expect to see is the OL being as ignored as it was for so many years under previous GMs. Not when both our GM and Asst GM were also OL. What I'm expecting for now is for them to stand pat with the OL before deciding on what their next move there should be.

In saying that I don't mean that if an opportunity to upgrade a position pops up once vets are released post draft or later in the summer Poles won't consider adding a replacement to someone he has. That's in his nature to do. But I don't believe he'll prioritize OL in the draft over the DL unless the way the board falls his top BPA player is an OL and he can't find another team to trade out of that pick with. That could happen because of the sheer number of OL ranked at 1st or high 2nd round picks. Let's not overlook the fact that we have one of the better coached OL in the NFL too and we'll still have a very mobile QB who can scramble and run.

Poles has gotten his team back to a decent level of competitiveness already after having cleaned out nearly the entire high paid vet roster in 2022 and has the team ready to start over at QB with the top prospect as his likely choice. CW's contract and it's fixed costs should provide Poles with a lot of room to maneuver in FA going forward and the cap will keep rising. So at least for now I expect a little pause for the cause with the OL before deciding what his next moves should be. The guys we have will either play themselves into starting roles or keep them or Poles will replace them fairly quickly. I expect he's nowhere near done with the OL yet.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

With regards to Jenkins' availability, it's worth noting in the past two seasons he's played in 25 games the exact same number as Jaylon Johnson who's just signed a lucrative 4 year extension.

[Bearfacts]

With regards to Jenkins' availability, it's worth noting in the past two seasons he's played in 25 games the exact same number as Jaylon Johnson who's just signed a lucrative 4 year extension.

Agreed, and Poles was able to get an extension with JJ done. But one caveat I would add is that a shut down CB is a premium position not as easily replaced as an OG. On the flipside the injuries Jenkins has experienced were more typical (calf) (concussion) and not as severe as the worries about his back. Did we ever get an explanation of how he injured his calf that badly?

I expect Poles to make a strong effort to retain Jenkins. He's just 26 years old and entering into the prime years of his career. I expect it will a be 4 year deal but how much $$$ will be guaranteed and how it's structured with potential roster bonuses and per game bonuses is where the rub may come in. Poles front loaded JJ's deal big time. Would he do the same with TJ?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Did we ever get an explanation of how he injured his calf that badly?

Nope, but a newly-wed straining both calves at the same time? My money's on a knee-trembler.

Poles front loaded JJ's deal big time. Would he do the same with TJ?

I was surprised Johnson's contract didn't include larger game-day bonuses given his injury history. The difference with Johnson of course was that he got his extension after 4 years whereas if Jenkins were to get one this offseason then it would come a year early. One reason for giving him an early extension would be to reduce both the annual and overall costs.

[Moriarty]

I didn't realize JJ's games missed was so bad last year (2022). Yikes!


One big stumbling block with Jenkins (beyond the games missed) is that the tags are done purely by OL, not by T/G/C, the way they ought to be. So tagging Jenkins is probably out of the question - which really hampers your leverage and forces you into committing sooner than you'd like.

[dplank]

With regards to Jenkins' availability, it's worth noting in the past two seasons he's played in 25 games the exact same number as Jaylon Johnson who's just signed a lucrative 4 year extension.

Correct. The availability issue is a hangover narrative from his rookie year concerns that are well behind him IMO. Proof of how narratives tend to stick past their expiration date

[Bearfacts]

Did we ever get an explanation of how he injured his calf that badly?

Nope, but a newly-wed straining both calves at the same time? My money's on a knee-trembler.

Poles front loaded JJ's deal big time. Would he do the same with TJ?

I was surprised Johnson's contract didn't include larger game-day bonuses given his injury history. The difference with Johnson of course was that he got his extension after 4 years whereas if Jenkins were to get one this offseason then it would come a year early. One reason for giving him an early extension would be to reduce both the annual and overall costs.

I've never seen huge amounts of money tied to game day bonuses. I believe the preferred way around it is a lower signing bonus and a roster bonus or two later on. To me the current approach is to be able to get out after year two with little dead cap then in year three the roster bonus is there and if a player has earned it they pay it and he's home free for another year.

Conversely you can either release him or trade him (as SD with Allen) before that bonus is payable. It all adds into the total value but the structure allows for more team options. The player has to stay healthy and produce to get year three and maybe year four as well. That may be the delta between Gtd $$$ total and Gtd $$$ at signing.

But I could see some benefit on getting it done prior to the end of the year as Poles did with Kmet. But what are we talking as far as AAV. Seems to me he's probably looking at the high teens maybe $17-$18 mil?

[malk]

Surely this is the time to take a gamble with Jenkins, try to get him to take less but early given the injury concerns. Not sure it's Poles' style though.

[spudbear]

In Poles we trust. Our of all the positional groups he should have the best handle on the future of the OL and how he wants to structure it. He took a shotgun approach his first year, getting a bunch of low round picks and finding one keeper/starter. I don't know if that will work again as for now he does not have many picks next month.

TJ is looking for his big payday. He's said so plainly the last year or so as he wanted to move to OT thinking he could get more $$. It looks like the league is also paying big money for IOL as well, maybe not as much as OT but close. I'm hoping he can get extended for something along the lines of 4 yr $60M with $40M guaranteed and a good bit paid this season, maybe $22M.

[wab]

I have no real basis for this, but I truly believe Jenkins wants to play OT. I'd like to think he is going to be a Bear for a long time, but I think there's probably a 70% chance he leaves in FA and gets P A I D. The Bears score a comp pick and find a more traditional guard.

As far as Davis goes, unless he has an exceptional year, he's probably gone too. IMO that's why Bates was brought in.

[dplank]

I have no real basis for this, but I truly believe Jenkins wants to play OT. I'd like to think he is going to be a Bear for a long time, but I think there's probably a 70% chance he leaves in FA and gets P A I D. The Bears score a comp pick and find a more traditional guard.

As far as Davis goes, unless he has an exceptional year, he's probably gone too. IMO that's why Bates was brought in.

Yea could be, I have a hard time paying a G 20M as much as I love me some Tev. I think with Bates, he was just a really good value signing at a position where we lacked depth and had two guys miss time last year. 4M in this market for a starting caliber G is just a massive bargain.

[Grizzled]

4 guards making $20+M. 10 guards making $15M - $$19M +. Maybe time to pull a Bellichick and trade him high if they can't sign him for a "reasonable" amount. His injury history may hurt his trade value.

[Moriarty]

• IOL has some patches that may suffice for a year, but is definitely unsettled. That's why I was saying in the other thread, I can still totally see them going C in R2-4 or G R3/4.

With regards to Jenkins' availability, it's worth noting in the past two seasons he's played in 25 games the exact same number as Jaylon Johnson who's just signed a lucrative 4 year extension.

Correct. The availability issue is a hangover narrative from his rookie year concerns that are well behind him IMO. Proof of how narratives tend to stick past their expiration date

• While narratives absolutely do outlive their reality sometimes ("The McCaskey's are cheap!"), I completely disagree that this is an example of it. Skip his rookie year entirely and Jenkins still only started 11/17 (65%) the last two years. That's terrible for a young starter, no matter what Jaylon did (and he's been a relatively steady 78% over 4 yrs as a pro). The message to walk away with is "sometimes teams will overlook shaky availability histories, for various reasons".

I have no real basis for this, but I truly believe Jenkins wants to play OT. I'd like to think he is going to be a Bear for a long time, but I think there's probably a 70% chance he leaves in FA and gets P A I D. The Bears score a comp pick and find a more traditional guard.

As far as Davis goes, unless he has an exceptional year, he's probably gone too. IMO that's why Bates was brought in.

• I'd set the odds low on Teven's return as well. 30%ish sounds about right to me. Davis I'd put higher, though (60%?). Losing both and having an unsettled C situation, too, (as of now), is more than you can deal with all at once, I suspect. It may well come down to choosing 11M/1yr for Davis vs Market(?)/?yrs for Teven.

[Bearfacts]

In Poles we trust. Our of all the positional groups he should have the best handle on the future of the OL and how he wants to structure it. He took a shotgun approach his first year, getting a bunch of low round picks and finding one keeper/starter. I don't know if that will work again as for now he does not have many picks next month.

TJ is looking for his big payday. He's said so plainly the last year or so as he wanted to move to OT thinking he could get more $$. It looks like the league is also paying big money for IOL as well, maybe not as much as OT but close. I'm hoping he can get extended for something along the lines of 4 yr $60M with $40M guaranteed and a good bit paid this season, maybe $22M.

Jenkins doesn't need to be priced as an OT because the top AAV for OG and RT are nearly the same. He's not a LT and only a few of those are priced much higher. Owing to the increase in the cap vs when some of the existing deals were made TJ can probably get a deal that puts him in the top 6-10 in AAV provided he stays healthy and earns some post season honors.

With another rookie QB deal on the books I think it's safe to say Poles can easily afford him if that's what he wants to do. I also agree that it may be worth working out something this summer that puts more GTD $$$ in his pocket now if it's affordable. He seems to be this years Cole Kmet in terms of making a decision to either extend him before 2025 or wait it out a bit longer.

[malk]

I know PFF is PFF but they said about Davis when we signed him:

"Regardless of where Davis plays, the Bears know he will perform as an above-average starter. He’s been a top-25 NFL guard for three years in a row. Their incumbents’ positional flexibility gives them options."

Poles obviously thought similar and given there appeared to be some legitimate reasons for a sub par season last year I think it's reasonable to expect he settles back into being an above average starter next season.

[RichH55]

With regards to Jenkins' availability, it's worth noting in the past two seasons he's played in 25 games the exact same number as Jaylon Johnson who's just signed a lucrative 4 year extension.

Correct. The availability issue is a hangover narrative from his rookie year concerns that are well behind him IMO. Proof of how narratives tend to stick past their expiration date

Except that's just incorrect. He missed time this year as well - and his 2nd season. He started 11 games last year and the year before

Got hurt in Training Camp, Got hurt in October, Got hurt in December

They are pretty clearly NOT behind him.

Got to call truth the truth

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Jenkins missed time last season but not due to recurrences of previous injuries.

I do find it mildly amusing that people always emphasise the need to build the OL and how the Bears have consistently failed do so and then they unearth a guy who's head and shoulders above anyone they've had for years and people baulk at the idea of paying him.

The old trope of "guards grow on trees" only holds true if you're happy to settle for mediocre at best players, otherwise the Bears wouldn't have struggled year-after-year to field a decent IOL.

We witnessed the impact Jenkins has when we saw how badly the line struggled in the first few games last season and the difference once he took the field.

[RichH55]

Jenkins missed time last season but not due to recurrences of previous injuries.

I do find it mildly amusing that people always emphasise the need to build the OL and how the Bears have consistently failed do so and then they unearth a guy who's head and shoulders above anyone they've had for years and people baulk at the idea of paying him.

The old trope of "guards grow on trees" only holds true if you're happy to settle for mediocre at best players, otherwise the Bears wouldn't have struggled year-after-year to field a decent IOL.

We witnessed the impact Jenkins has when we saw how badly the line struggled in the first few games last season and the difference once he took the field.

Guards still grow on trees - Alot of our problems over the years was the lack of Tackle play - Even Chris Williams had a half way decent run at Guard.

And are new injuries better? Like that all of his body can be an issue? I'm not sold there.

There is Guards next year on FA too - pretty much every year - for a reason

[Bearfacts]

Jenkins missed time last season but not due to recurrences of previous injuries.

I do find it mildly amusing that people always emphasise the need to build the OL and how the Bears have consistently failed do so and then they unearth a guy who's head and shoulders above anyone they've had for years and people baulk at the idea of paying him.

The old trope of "guards grow on trees" only holds true if you're happy to settle for mediocre at best players, otherwise the Bears wouldn't have struggled year-after-year to field a decent IOL.

We witnessed the impact Jenkins has when we saw how badly the line struggled in the first few games last season and the difference once he took the field.

I"m not opposed to extending him but it's not my call. What I feel comfortable saying though is unless Poles plans to spend his #9 pick or a trade thereof on top level rookie OL he's gonna need to extend him or replace him in 2025 FA. It seems just as imprudent to allow your best IOL to leave in FA as it does trading Braxton Jones for a 4th round pick.

But the bigger question is can TJ be extended? My belief is Poles has handled the extension of two of his best homegrown players so far so I have no reason to believe he can't get a deal done with Jenkins that suits both parties. But until it's done all we know is he's in the final year of his current deal and Poles is sure to be asked about him sooner than later.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Guards still grow on trees - Alot of our problems over the years was the lack of Tackle play - Even Chris Williams had a half way decent run at Guard.

And are new injuries better? Like that all of his body can be an issue? I'm not sold there.

There is Guards next year on FA too - pretty much every year - for a reason

If Chris Williams is a yardstick for a "decent" OG then we really do have low standards.

Just because there are OGs available in FA doesn't mean they're any good and those that are come with big price tags. Nate Davis was considered one of the best on the market last year and everyone's been unhappy with the standard of his play so far. Anyone who thinks Jenkins would be easy to replace, especially at a low cost, hasn't watched his tape.

As for injuries, the nature of those injuries are a factor. Jenkins somehow managed to strain both calves shortly before the regular season started. It wasn't something that happened in a game. It accounted for 4 of the 5 games he missed. Is that injury likely to recur? I would think the odds on that are very low.

Any extension would have to factor in injury risk, but the advantage of extending him a year early is that it should reduce the cost of the deal. If structured well the team will have an out in a couple of years if things don't turn out well.

It's not as if other top, highly paid guards have never missed games. It's a tough physical sport and there's contact every play for O-linemen. Brandon Scherff had a run of 5 seasons where he played 14, 8, 11, 13 and 11 games yet made the Pro Bowl in all but one of those years and was a first team All Pro one year too.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

But the bigger question is can TJ be extended? My belief is Poles has handled the extension of two of his best homegrown players so far so I have no reason to believe he can't get a deal done with Jenkins that suits both parties. But until it's done all we know is he's in the final year of his current deal and Poles is sure to be asked about him sooner than later.

At his presser today Poles was asked about extending Keenan Allen and he said this:

"I try to be intentional in the order we do extensions, so we'll review that and kinda see what our order looks like."

I thought that was interesting.

With Johnson signed, Fields traded and Mooney leaving for the Falcons the only drafted players left who are eligible for an extension this year are Jenkins, Borom and Herbert and of those 3 Jenkins is far and away the best.

Aside from Allen are there any other players not on their rookie deals who Poles might consider for an extension? I can't think of any off the top of my head.

I'm hoping that means Poles is prioritising new deals for young homegrown talent rather than risking upsetting them by rewarding new signings first, even if they are highly accomplished veterans.

[Bearfacts]

But the bigger question is can TJ be extended? My belief is Poles has handled the extension of two of his best homegrown players so far so I have no reason to believe he can't get a deal done with Jenkins that suits both parties. But until it's done all we know is he's in the final year of his current deal and Poles is sure to be asked about him sooner than later.

At his presser today Poles was asked about extending Keenan Allen and he said this:

"I try to be intentional in the order we do extensions, so we'll review that and kinda see what our order looks like."

I thought that was interesting.

With Johnson signed, Fields traded and Mooney leaving for the Falcons the only drafted players left who are eligible for an extension this year are Jenkins, Borom and Herbert and of those 3 Jenkins is far and away the best.

Aside from Allen are there any other players not on their rookie deals who Poles might consider for an extension? I can't think of any off the top of my head.

I'm hoping that means Poles is prioritising new deals for young homegrown talent rather than risking upsetting them by rewarding new signings first, even if they are highly accomplished veterans.

I can see a possible reason for extending Allen first if it meant cutting his 2024 cap cost significantly. That might allow him to boost his offer to TJ a bit with more 2024 money. But other than that would agree that TJ should be next in line.

I don't see Poles extending Herbert at all once he signed Swift and before extending Borom I would he'd want time to see what the other OL he signed can do.....or not do. Borom isn't horrible but also not as if he's somehow irreplaceable.