Poles also stated that they had run out of runway with respect to Justin’s rookie contract, but that’s not really true, is it. The Bears still had the fourth year of Justin’s contract remaining. They saved all of 3.2 mill by trading him for a song. DJ Moore rationalized the trade by saying “business is business.” By what kind of business is that?
And before you say the move was made to insure a “clean” locker room, remember that these guys are professionals, or at least they’re supposed to be. And given what’s been reported with respect to the character of Fields and the presumed Bear draft pick, this situation should have been able to be resolved amicably. And what if there are problems with the contract negotiations for our rookie or what if that rookie (knock on wood) gets hurt? What if he struggles, as rookie QBs are wont to do, even Peyton Manning. It seems the presence of Fields on our roster would only serve to take much of the pressure off our rookie. Again, if trading Justin Fields for a song is “business,” it’s not very good business.
Having said all that, and despite having only four picks, this does have a chance to be a franchise changing draft for the Bears. With that, let’s present my Picnic Basket for 2024. Perhaps this is one time I’ll actually get the Bear pick correct.
1(1)— Caleb Williams, QB, USC, 6’1”, 214
Perhaps I’ll finally get a Bear pick right. In fact, I’ll be shocked and extremely disappointed and angry if we don’t take Caleb Williams. He’s perhaps the most hyped QB coming out of college since Andrew Luck. In fact, I’d wager that if we didn’t have Caleb available to us, Poles would have never gotten rid of Justin Fields. With the slight exception of his lack of height (6’1” versus 6’3” or greater), the kid seemingly has it all: a strong and accurate arm, the ability to throw off a wide and diverse array of platforms, an ultra-quick release, pocket presence and the ability to scramble within it, the ability to process quickly (although he does need much more work on it), and the ability to run, even though he doesn’t like to do it and even though he’s not near as good at it as Justin Fields, he can still do it. But generally, when he runs, he runs to throw.
There’s no question that Caleb can play hero ball. He can make truly spectacular plays. Scrambling, he often makes defensive linemen look like Wile E. against the Roadrunner. Williams is fast, but certainly not Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson fast, although he is extremely quick, particularly within the pocket. In this respect, he reminds me a lot of Patrick Mahomes, who in the 2017 Combine didn’t even finish in the Top 5 of QBs in the 40 with a 4.8 yet did have the fastest shuttle (4.08) and the third fastest cone (6.88). Looking at tape since he didn’t perform at the Combine, Williams might be even faster than that. And also like Mahomes, Williams has the ability to release the ball a great distance and with impressive accuracy with a simple flick of the wrist.
But more than any other, the one factor that probably convinced Poles to move on from Justin Fields is Caleb Williams’ ability to process within the pocket. Although it still needs work, as with every rookie QB, Caleb does seem to be able to throw from the pocket better than most rookie QBs. With that in mind, and special thanks to Kylo Bearen for posting it on the board, I’ll leave you with a 20 minute clip of Caleb throwing from the pocket rather than highlights of his more jaw dropping plays.
1(9)— Trade down with Indianapolis for their 1st (15) and their third (82).
Unless something really outrageous happens, like Marvin Harrison Junior falling to #9, the Bears should try to trade the pick, and I mean it has to be precisely that. If either of the other two big three receivers—Malik Nabers or Rome Undunze—falls, the Bears should still trade the pick, because I honestly believe the next WR in line, Brian Thomas Jr., is going to be a better pro than either of those two and could probably be had in a trade down.
But the real reason I favor a trade down here is because of the edge rushers available. Of the top 3 edges, only one consistently goes before the Bears’ pick at #9, Dallas Turner, but that doesn’t affect the Bears at all. Turner is a 3-4 OLB, not a 4-3 DE. His RAS as an OLB is an outstanding 9.92, but as a DE, it is only 8.82. He’s just too slight to be as effective there. So that leaves the next two edges, true Des, usually going between 13-17. If both are gone in a trade down, we could either go OT or WR with Brian Thomas…, or we could trade down again, targeting DT/DE Darius Robinson from Missouri, OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, or another WR or OT. If the Bears do choose to grab something other than an Edge, there are some decent edge prospects who could be had in the third, like Adissa Isaac from Penn State, Bralen Trice from Washington, or Austin Booker from Kansas.
But the real reason I favor a trade down here is because of the edge rushers available. Of the top 3 edges, only one consistently goes before the Bears’ pick at #9, Dallas Turner, but that doesn’t affect the Bears at all. Turner is a 3-4 OLB, not a 4-3 DE. His RAS as an OLB is an outstanding 9.92, but as a DE, it is only 8.82. He’s just too slight to be as effective there. So that leaves the next two edges, true Des, usually going between 13-17. If both are gone in a trade down, we could either go OT or WR with Brian Thomas…, or we could trade down again, targeting DT/DE Darius Robinson from Missouri, OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, or another WR or OT. If the Bears do choose to grab something other than an Edge, there are some decent edge prospects who could be had in the third, like Adissa Isaac from Penn State, Bralen Trice from Washington, or Austin Booker from Kansas.
With all that in mind, with our second first round selection, I choose:
1(15—from Indianpolis)— Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA, 6’5”, 259.
Jared Verse has a better RAS than Latu (9.56 to 9.32). In fact other that size and two other metrics which I’ll talk about later, Verse has a better 40 (4.58 to 4.64), a better 10 yards split (1.59 to 1.62), and a considerably better vertical (35” to 32”) and broad (10’7” to 9’8”). He also put up an impressive 31 reps. And even though he’s an inch shorter, Verse actually has a longer arm span by an eighth of an inch.
There’s only one problem. Latu is simply better at football than Jared Verse. And the stats prove that. They have both played 25 games the past two years. Latu has 11 more tackles, 16 more solo tackles, 6 more sacks, 6 more TFLs, and an extra PD. But more importantly, he has 5 FFs to only one for Verse, and he even has two picks. Flus has gotta love those turnovers.
Verse has far more power, but Latu is more instinctual and cerebral. Verse has the quicker first step, but Latu is much quicker laterally. His shuttle was a full tenth faster and his 3 cone was 2.2 tenths quicker. That’s pretty dramatic, and it shows on the field. Couple that with Latu’s hand speed and wide assortment of moves: from a cross chop to a rip to a spin move to a swim move to a speed to power bull rush. He has the whole gamut of moves that he uses with amazing timing. Technically, Latu is as polished a pass rusher as you’ll find.
Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State does expose a weakness in Latu’s game. There are two plays in the Oregon State where Fuaga simply destroys Latu (one in a double team). Analysts are all over those two plays claiming that Latu can’t set an edge in the run game. That’s simply not true. Fuaga is the best run blocking OT in the draft, by far. On those two plays, Latu allowed Fuaga to get into his body, and Fuaga used his massive size and power to simply overwhelm him. But Latu isn’t the only defender that Fuaga has punked this year. The guy’s a beast.
Far more typically, Latu is able to contribute as run defender by using his hand fighting skills to keep blockers off of him. A couple of losses to a guy like Fuaga isn’t enough to completely negate that ability. Still, it does expose a weakness when Latu allows bigger, stronger blockers to get into him in the run game. He needs to improve his anchor by dropping his hips and exploding into the blocker. With Latu, spending time in the weight room with squats while also working on his arm strength. It’s nothing that can’t be fixed. If the Bears draft him, practicing with Wright can only help.
Having said all this, if it’s anything like last year, Latu will probably fall to the fourth round due to concerns about his neck injury, at which point, the Bears will still ignore him. ☹Personally though, I think that after playing every game for the past two seasons, those concerns should be alleviated. Hell, he even survived a Fuaga pummeling. Lol
I leave you with a really good film breakdown of Latu. I post it though primarily because of the USC segment starting at 4:30. What he says makes you thankful we’re taking Caleb #1. But Caleb would have to be happy to have Latu on the same team. Latu practically lived in USC’s backfield the past two years. I have to say, however, that I would’t be unhappy with Jared Verse either. Not unhappy at all. Latu is just better.
3(77)—Brenden Rice, WR, USC, 6’2”, 208.
This almost makes too much sense. All offseason, Poles has been acquiring pieces to make things easier for his incoming rookie QB, and yes I’m presuming it’s Caleb Williams. He went out and traded for a second #1 receiver in Keenan Allen and disregarded his typical age rules in doing so. He signed a true move TE in Gerald Everett, and a pass catching RB in Deondre Swift. He stabilized the interior of our offensive line, particularly center, by trading for Ryan Bates and signing Coleman Shelton. All of these were designed to ease the transition of a rookie QB. So what better way to make him more comfortable than by bringing his college teammate, a WR he’s already played two years with.
Rice wasn’t the leading USC WR in either receptions or yards, but he was in TDs with an impressive 12. Him and Caleb seemed to have a unique connection for back shoulder throws and even more especially when Caleb got into trouble, it seemed that it was Rice who he found more times than not. That’s a very comforting presence with a rookie QB. There are even some anticipatory timing patterns between them: a couple of slants and a couple of hooks.
As you’d expect as the son of the GOAT WR, Jerry Rice, Brenden is a polished route runner. He didn’t have a great Combine, running only a pedestrian for a WR 4.51 40, a poor shuttle, broad jump, and bench. How do you lose an inch and a half off your vertical, more than a tenth off your ten-yard split, and 4 reps in only a year where he had before been made Feldman’s Freak List at #53 and put up 23 MPH on the GPS? The guy was a track star in high school. Whatever, I guess you must commend him for doing all the drills though.
In any case, like his father who also didn’t run really well (4.6 to 4.7), Brenden is still able to create separation through savvy and good route running. Freakishly, he’ll be running deep with the corner stride for stride with him, and suddenly, Brenden will get a couple of yards of separation. He had 4 sixty-yard plus deep balls last year. He just seems to get open, especially in scramble drills. He also seems to really step up in big games, like against Oregon, UCLA, and Tulane in their bowl game. He also had a good Senior Bowl.
At 6’2”, 208, Brenden is not skinny like his father. He has a chiseled physique which he uses to contest well on 50-50 balls and run after the catch. He can even block. He’s not quite ESB in that sense, but he certainly does much more than try.
Oh, while at Colorado for his first two years of college, he returned kicks. 22 total for a 25.2 average. He also returned only one punt, but it was for an 81 yard TD. It might be something to be explored. In any case, here’s a clip:
3(82)—Maason Smith, LSU, 6’5”, 306.
This is such a Ryan Poles’ pick. If a DT like T’Vondre Sweat or Braden Fiske doesn’t fall, I could easily see Poles reach for Smith the way he did for Gervon Dexter last year. Like Dexter, Smith was a five star player, a Top 20 in the nation, coming out of high school. And he showed it when he had 19 tackles, 5 TFLs, and 4 sacks in only 9 games as a true freshman in the SEC. He showed tremendous explosion during that time, so much so, that they played him at DE half the time. He was looking like a for sure Top 10 draft pick at the time.
Unfortunately, Smith tore his ACL in the first game of the 2022 season in a freak celebratory accident where he simply jumped in the air after stuffing a double team resulting in a five-yard loss. He missed the rest of the season. This past year, he started out sluggishly. He didn’t have near the explosion he exhibited as a freshman. At times he looked like a Tyrannosaurus Rex in a Sumo headbutting match—standing straight up with his 35” arms curled against his body like a T Rex’s and absolutely no leg drive, simply roaring his defiance.
But in the last three games, much of his freshman burst had returned. He kept his pad level lower and his feet churning. I even saw some hand usage: a swipe to go with a swim move he already had and some hand extension though not near enough. Even though he only had one tackle in the Wisconsin game, he was consistently in the Badger backfield. I even saw a spin move from him in that game. It’s not coincidental that 11 of his season’s 28 tackles and 1.5 of his 2.5 sacks came in those final three games.
Still, the kid is raw. He needs to continue to rehab his knee focusing on his lateral agility and work on keeping his pad level low. He really needs to develop a hand punch and arm extension to keep blockers off of him and so he can see what’s going on. And he needs much more work with his hand fighting. A rip move would be nice. But basically, his hands need to be more violent. He has 35” arms for crissakes. Use them.
Poles seems to like those five star high school recruits who are physical specimens. Smith certainly fits that bill. Here’s a highlight clip of his (most of them come from his freshman season):
If we don’t get a DT here, a guy I really like later in the draft is Jaden Crumedy from Mississippi State.
4(122)—Beaux Limmer, OC, Arkansas, 6’5”, 302.
In this, Poles’ third offseason, he has consistently tried to address the center position like he was a grandmother making a quilt, patching it together. When he first got here, Poles signed Lucas Patrick from Green Bay to a two year contract to take center over from a walk on in Sam Mustipher. He also drafted Doug Kramer in the sixth round. Kramer ended up getting hurt and put on IR, while Patrick broke his hand, so we were stuck with Mustipher. We even had Detier Eiselen experiment there. Last year, he tried to move Whitehair over to center, but unfortunately, Whitehair snapped like he was firing mortars blindfolded. You never knew where they were going to go, so Patrick came back, and we traded Miami for Dan Feeney, a six year guard who had one year three years ago at center. I think he lasted less than a half there for us. This year he traded for Ryan Bates, a guard who has played center, to two year, and signed Coleman Shelton from the Rams for one year, while Kramer was resigned to our practice squad. Just more patches.
Since they make all the line calls, center is not typically a position you want a rookie starting at. That’s why we should draft a legitimate center now to put in the pipeline, as an understudy to Bates and Shelton, so he can take over in a year or two. Given the nature of the relationship between QB and center, it also makes sense to bring him in with our star-studded rookie QB savior so they can develop together. Yet another way to make the rookie QB more comfortable over the long term.
Although Limmer isn’t the best center in this draft, Jackson Powers-Johnson is by far, but he is perfect for what the Bears need. He carries an astounding 9.8 RAS score, with every single Combine Test except for his 40 coming in above 9. More specifically, his 36.5” vertical gave him a perfect 10, and he became the strongest player at the Combine with an eye dropping 39 reps which gave him a 9.9 score. He’s durable as he started 49 games at both guard and center, a position which he didn’t take over full time until his senior year. This versatility would allow him to back up both guard positions while getting a deeper understanding of the center position.
Limmer’s forte is run blocking, particularly getting to the second level, which he does as quickly as any OL I’ve ever seen. He’s very fluid. He can pull and find a target seemingly effortlessly. But he can also power block. There are a number of examples where he’s the driving force in a moving pile. This is a manifestation of his 700 lb. squat and 39 Rep Bench.
His pass protection is technically sound but still needs work. Despite his height, he has short arms (less than 32”) so he’s at a disadvantage from the start, but that squat really helps him. His normally driven back a yard at initial impact, but he’s able to contain a straight bull rush. He stoned T’Vondre Sweat at the Senior Bowl after their initial impact. That’s saying something. Where he runs into trouble is when he rocks back onto his heels after the initial impact and a defender can counter their initial bull rush. That’s how he allowed 3 sacks this past season. But with his quickness, he’s often able to recover and push his defender past the QB.
Limmer’s greatest strength though is his intelligence. He made the SEC Academic Honor Roll every year he was at Arkansas. But it’s not only intelligence, it’s quick processing. These two traits are absolutely essential for the center position. It's also why he’s able to find a second level target or identify defenders to block on pulls so quickly. It’s also why he seems to identify stunts and blitzes so well. He’s a fun player to watch.
I leave you with the LSU tape because it pretty much confirms every point I make—from his strengths to his weaknesses. It will also give you a chance to witness the more sluggish Maason Smith.
Well, there you have it, my Picnic Basket for 2024. After last year’s Basket, it seems appropriate to post it on April Fool’s Day. Maybe I’ll make it an annual occurrence for at least one Picnic Basket. Truthfully though, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Poles trade down multiple times for even more picks as he did in his first draft. But those are just too impossible to predict. In this one, I’ve tried to be very conservative in both the single trade down (only garnering a third) and the prospects I chose. I do think I may have actually gotten our first pick correct…for once. lol
Anyway, that’s all I have. Enjoy.
