I think we Bears fans are traumatized

[Umbali]

Seems to me we have always gone down the road of shoring up the D. I mean if Caleb is at best pretty good, and he has weapons like DJ, Keenan, Kmet and Sweat and we add Nabers to it? Daaaamn it would be fun to watch. Im sure Nabers doesnt fall to 9 but stranger things have happened. Maybe its time to try life on the abundance of riches side on the offense for a change instead of the defense. I think I read that edge has much better prospects next year.

Id love to see our rookie QB drop back and have multiple options cus they are all open or know how to make plays and attack the ball.

I am not sure of Odunze but any chance at Nabers I would have to jump at.

[docc]

Law of averages can take a LONG time. It used be 2 automatic wins for Bears when Tampa Bay sucked forever..and Detroit..and two more in the 70s the Bears were in the same toilet...so Packers and Minny were the turds that floated to the top..

And what about those Washington Generals... 3 wins in decades.

[Heinz D.]

Meanwhile we're at #9 and this fanbase (and this board) is like "let's draft Verse because he's a good run-stopping edge" or "we need an elite OT3 because injuries happen and braxton jones loses against bull rushes". Like we can't believe that there's a way to win other than 12-10 in a game where the Bears run it 80% of the time.

Actually...no.

There's only a handful of us pounding the table for a DE. And why are we doing that? Because it's a position of need, and we feel that the Bears don't need three #1 WRs. And, we believe that having two #1 WRs, and a franchise QB, is pretty much guaranteeing that we won't "run it 80% of the time". We also don't factor injury into our thinking, as that's simply not how you build your team. What if Williams gets hurt? Should we draft Pennix at #9, as a backup plan?

[HurricaneBear]

Meanwhile we're at #9 and this fanbase (and this board) is like "let's draft Verse because he's a good run-stopping edge" or "we need an elite OT3 because injuries happen and braxton jones loses against bull rushes". Like we can't believe that there's a way to win other than 12-10 in a game where the Bears run it 80% of the time.

Actually...no.

There's only a handful of us pounding the table for a DE. And why are we doing that? Because it's a position of need, and we feel that the Bears don't need three #1 WRs. And, we believe that having two #1 WRs, and a franchise QB, is pretty much guaranteeing that we won't "run it 80% of the time". We also don't factor injury into our thinking, as that's simply not how you build your team. What if Williams gets hurt? Should we draft Pennix at #9, as a backup plan?

We have 2 #1 wide receivers for 1 year. Receivers take more than 1 year to develop. If you draft a guy it's to pair with Caleb long term. It has nothing do with this season or having 3 #1s this year. Hell, if that guy works out he replaces Moore in 2 years. That's not a dumb move its forward thinking.

Walker is the starting DE. There's a post on here where someone said Walker played like 68 snaps at DT last year and 600 something at DE. If you draft a DE your drafting DE #3 just like you'd be drafting WR #3. It's also not a dumb move. A DE would be nice.

The reason you want a DE is because you want a ferocious defense. There's nothing wrong with that! We don't have to continue this made up its a bigger need than WR. It's not.

[Heinz D.]

We have 2 #1 wide receivers for 1 year. Receivers take more than 1 year to develop. If you draft a guy it's to pair with Caleb long term. It has nothing do with this season or having 3 #1s this year. Hell, if that guy works out he replaces Moore in 2 years. That's not a dumb move its forward thinking.

Walker is the starting DE. There's a post on here where someone said Walker played like 68 snaps at DT last year and 600 something at DE. If you draft a DE your drafting DE #3 just like you'd be drafting WR #3. It's also not a dumb move. A DE would be nice.

The reason you want a DE is because you want a ferocious defense. There's nothing wrong with that! We don't have to continue this made up its a bigger need than WR. It's not.

If Poles drafts Turner or Verse, then Walker isn't a starter, and is a prime candidate to be cut in the near future, because he hasn't panned out.

You can draft another WR with a pick other than #9. We will have Moore and Allen for more than one season. Moore is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And he'll most likely have another stellar season with better QB play. You can also acquire a WR, instead of drafting one. Poles could (I think) sign Tyler Boyd today, for example...

[HurricaneBear]

We have 2 #1 wide receivers for 1 year. Receivers take more than 1 year to develop. If you draft a guy it's to pair with Caleb long term. It has nothing do with this season or having 3 #1s this year. Hell, if that guy works out he replaces Moore in 2 years. That's not a dumb move its forward thinking.

Walker is the starting DE. There's a post on here where someone said Walker played like 68 snaps at DT last year and 600 something at DE. If you draft a DE your drafting DE #3 just like you'd be drafting WR #3. It's also not a dumb move. A DE would be nice.

The reason you want a DE is because you want a ferocious defense. There's nothing wrong with that! We don't have to continue this made up its a bigger need than WR. It's not.

If Poles drafts Turner or Verse, then Walker isn't a starter, and is a prime candidate to be cut in the near future, because he hasn't panned out.

You can draft another WR with a pick other than #9. We will have Moore and Allen for more than one season. Moore is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And he'll most likely have another stellar season with better QB play. You can also acquire a WR, instead of drafting one. Poles could (I think) sign Tyler Boyd today, for example...

Everything you said can be said about DE. That's my point. You like defense nothing wrong with that. It doesn't change that they are both very similar situations.

I'm not trying to convince you that we should draft a WR. I'm trying to get you to stop pushing the false reason of its a bigger need. It's not.

[Yogi da Bear]

If Poles drafts Turner or Verse, then Walker isn't a starter, and is a prime candidate to be cut in the near future, because he hasn't panned out.

You can draft another WR with a pick other than #9. We will have Moore and Allen for more than one season. Moore is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And he'll most likely have another stellar season with better QB play. You can also acquire a WR, instead of drafting one. Poles could (I think) sign Tyler Boyd today, for example...

Everything you said can be said about DE. That's my point. You like defense nothing wrong with that. It doesn't change that they are both very similar situations.

I'm not trying to convince you that we should draft a WR. I'm trying to get you to stop pushing the false reason of its a bigger need. It's not.

Long term you're probably right. But for this year, there's no question that an impact DE will have a much greatter effect on our defense than an impact WR would have on our offense.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Should we draft Pennix at #9, as a backup plan?

For the sake of the children, please don’t

[HurricaneBear]

Everything you said can be said about DE. That's my point. You like defense nothing wrong with that. It doesn't change that they are both very similar situations.

I'm not trying to convince you that we should draft a WR. I'm trying to get you to stop pushing the false reason of its a bigger need. It's not.

Long term you're probably right. But for this year, there's no question that an impact DE will have a much greatter effect on our defense than an impact WR would have on our offense.

Im pretty certain if Poles picks a player in the top 10 he is picking that player for long term projections, not what the team "needs" this year. He has gone 2 straight drafts not selecting a position of "need" (OL then DL the last 2 years) and filled the position with a veteran around camp. He has never shown to draft for "need".

He has positioned this team to not "need" anyone in this draft(other than QB). He's positioned himself to select a premium player at a premium position with the 9th pick. He is going to select the person he thinks is the best 10 year investment for this team. Its a top 10 pick. You expect that guy to be a cornerstone of your franchise. If Poles selects someone with the 9th pick for this year alone, we have the wrong GM.

What I am saying isn't crazy or controversial. Poles himself has stated what 3 positions are all close enough that they are breaking into teams to figure out what to do. That's why I dont understand when people try to use "need" as the argument for a DE over WR. It's not.

If you just want a ferocious top 5 D then you want the DE. I don't get why that just can't be the reason instead of the made up "DE is so much more important!" I have no issues with anyone saying they want a DE because they want to take the pass rush to the next level or to have the top D in football.

[Bearfacts]

If WR, DE, and OT are the top considerations for pick #9 I find it hard to rank them in order of need. I each case we have the position we'd draft for covered for now but for how long? Demarcus Walker will be 31 years old next season and not very costly to cut. Keenan Allen is only signed through 2024. Extending him beyond this year won't be cheap. We're OK at OT but is OK good enough at LT and if we look elsewhere Tevin Jenkins is due and extension. So an OT who could kick in to play OG would be a benefit.

Each position has it own hierarchy in a decision process because it will impact the others. A reasonable argument can be made for any one of the positions. I guess that's why this thread has an many posts as it does.

[dplank]

If looking narrowly at 2024 season, DE is a significantly bigger need than WR. We already have a top 5 WR duo.

That said, I agree that’s not how Poles will make his decision. He’s paid to think long term and that’s what he will do.

[Yogi da Bear]

One thing to think about long term in taking a receiver is that you'll have BOTH your QB and your #1 receiver (hopefully) reaching the end of their rookie contracts at the same time. That would be a lot of money coming due on those two positions at the same time. Something to be concerned with certainly.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

One thing to think about long term in taking a receiver is that you'll have BOTH your QB and your #1 receiver (hopefully) reaching the end of their rookie contracts at the same time. That would be a lot of money coming due on those two positions at the same time. Something to be concerned with certainly.

How is that any different if the Bears draft an elite DE or OT instead? If players pan out then they're going to need to be paid a lot to keep them and all 3 are highly paid positions.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

I think the best way to mitigate a traumatized fanbase is to wreak havoc on the opponents.

That said, a top 5 defense would go a long way towards gratification - if not fulfillment - at least for me.

[dplank]

I think the best way to mitigate a traumatized fanbase is to wreak havoc on the opponents.

That said, a top 5 defense would go a long way towards gratification - if not fulfillment - at least for me.

Last year, of the top 9 defenses using DVOA all made the playoffs. The run stopped at #10, the Jags (not a good look for Lawrence here). Of the final 4 teams, DVOA season rankings were 1,2, 5, and 7. 3 of the final 4 teams were Top 5, including both Super Bowl teams and the champs. So yea, a Top 5 defense matters a lot.

The Bears ranked 22nd. Nice late run, but let’s not act like the job is done. Our defense was ineffective Game 17 against the Packers. The 17 points was an aberration, we gave up nearly 450 yards, 70% 3rd down rate, generated no pressure - we were dominated.

[Yogi da Bear]

One thing to think about long term in taking a receiver is that you'll have BOTH your QB and your #1 receiver (hopefully) reaching the end of their rookie contracts at the same time. That would be a lot of money coming due on those two positions at the same time. Something to be concerned with certainly.

How is that any different if the Bears draft an elite DE or OT instead? If players pan out then they're going to need to be paid a lot to keep them and all 3 are highly paid positions.

It's different because of where the assets are allocated. For instance, if the Chiefs had kept Tyreek Hill as opposed to Jones, I don't think they would have been near the team they were last year.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I'm still confused about the point you're trying to make Yogi. Jones and Hill were both drafted in 2016 and both signed lucrative extensions with the Chiefs and that was despite Mahomes getting his record setting deal. Also Hill was drafted in round 5.

It doesn't make much difference which position is drafted or even where if you get two high quality players at premium positions in the same year. That's a) obviously a very good result and b) to keep them will come at a high price a few seasons down the road. Whether you can afford both or not is another matter, but it is possible.

Also if one of those players is a QB (which it's going to be) then if they live up to the hype they'll be getting their extension after Year 3 whereas the second player drafted in Round 1 will still be under team control for another 2 seasons and could be awarded their extension later.

[Yogi da Bear]

Chris Jones was signed to an 80 mill contract in 2022 and just resigned to a 158 mill deal. Tyreek signed a 3 year 54 mill contract in 2019. Mahomes was signed to a 477 mill contract in 2020. In 2022, the Chiefs had to trade Hill because they could not afford the 120 mill extension that Miami signed him to in 2022.

So although the timing isn't exactly precise, it's close enough to show what I'm talking about. If all goes according to plan, can you imagine being able to afford the cost of a Top QB AND a TOP WR coming due at the same time? Mahomes is making 45 per and Hill is making 30 per. Can you imagine paying two contracts considerably larger than that coming due at the same time for just your QB and WR? As it stands, the Chiefs are still putting 75 mill into two positions but 45 is allocated to QB and 30 into DL. Much more balanced that way from an allocation of resources point of view.

That's what I'm talking about. Hope I'm clear on it.

[Rusty Trombagent]

Chris Jones was signed to an 80 mill contract in 2022 and just resigned to a 158 mill deal. Tyreek signed a 3 year 54 mill contract in 2019. Mahomes was signed to a 477 mill contract in 2020. In 2022, the Chiefs had to trade Hill because they could not afford the 120 mill extension that Miami signed him to in 2022.

So although the timing isn't exactly precise, it's close enough to show what I'm talking about. If all goes according to plan, can you imagine being able to afford the cost of a Top QB AND a TOP WR coming due at the same time? Mahomes is making 45 per and Hill is making 30 per. Can you imagine paying two contracts considerably larger than that coming due at the same time for just your QB and WR? As it stands, the Chiefs are still putting 75 mill into two positions but 45 is allocated to QB and 30 into DL. Much more balanced that way from an allocation of resources point of view.

That's what I'm talking about. Hope I'm clear on it.

I guess if we're gonna use Tyreek Hill as an example:

The Kansas City Chiefs traded six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks: a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, plus fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft on Wednesday.

That worked out pretty great for the Chiefs! 6 years of incredible production and then a nice haul of picks when they couldn't pay him anymore.

"we should consider passing on a potentially great wr because he might be too expensive in 5 years" though is exactly what i'd hope to find in a thread about bears fans being traumatized.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

You beat me to it Rusty.

Also Jones' contracts have been a little more complicated. He didn't sign the 4 year $80m deal in 2022 but in 2020 and he was given a pay bump again in 2023 with another $19.5m before signing his new 5 year $158.75m contract starting this coming season.

The point is though that the Chiefs had both Jones and Hill together for 6 years, both earned lucrative extensions with the team and when Hill was eventually traded, as Rusty notes, it was for a haul of draft picks. During that time the Chiefs also paid big money to Mahomes and Kelce and obviously enjoyed a tremendous run of success. Even with Hill's departure they've still won another Championship.

In short I just don't see the concern here at all Yogi. No GM can possibly plan for 5+ seasons down the line anyway.

[Bearfacts]

If looking narrowly at 2024 season, DE is a significantly bigger need than WR. We already have a top 5 WR duo.

That said, I agree that’s not how Poles will make his decision. He’s paid to think long term and that’s what he will do.

Yup, I fear that some are looking at it solely on the basis of what position must be filled now and since it's draft time they're looking only at the draft to satisfy filling it. We have no idea how the Bears board is structured and even they may not have finalized it yet. But if he can draft a blue chip player he values that highly regardless of position I believe he'll take him.

DE is a bigger immediate need but if the only DE on the board doesn't rate a top ten pick and another player does take that guy and go to Plan B for your DE. If I still wanted to draft for defense at #9 I'd decide where I would draft that DE and also look at what other players I would also take with that same pick. At this point I believe we need to draft good football players period.

[Bearfacts]

One thing to think about long term in taking a receiver is that you'll have BOTH your QB and your #1 receiver (hopefully) reaching the end of their rookie contracts at the same time. That would be a lot of money coming due on those two positions at the same time. Something to be concerned with certainly.

True but it's four to five years off. That's a whole lotta time to prepare for that eventuality and if we were to win a SB in the meantime we'll have a whole lot of players looking to score bigger pay days. I'm thinking more in line with two years out when we'll probably lose Allen and we extend Moore. I have a hard time believing we'd want to be into Allen for more than two years.

D J will be in line for a high dollar deal but we'd still potentially have a young WR on his rookie deal ready to replace Allen. I believe any time you draft a player as high as a top ten pick you're not just looking at what he brings to the table today but what his path will be over the entire 4-5 years of his rookie deal. WR often take a year or two to hit their peak so the timing is right.

But despite all that I won't be unhappy with any decision they make because this time around I feel we have the right people at the top making good decisions. They can see far more than we can what their longer term plans are. We're no more than the media guys out there playing their own guessing games and doing predictive mocks as well other than we may know the team better.

[Boris13c]

having 2 top 10 draft picks isn't reason for trauma but rather a cause for enthusiastic anticipation for most, looking forward to what the team can/will do

being a long time Bears fan, having 2 top 10 draft picks is a cause for deep rooted cynicism to come to the surface as one ponders how the team will find a way to f this up ... THAT is the trauma

[Heinz D.]

"we should consider passing on a potentially great wr because he might be too expensive in 5 years" though is exactly what i'd hope to find in a thread about bears fans being traumatized.

Yeah...let's all forget that the Bears already have TWO established, phenomenal receivers, that will soon need to be paid, big-time, to remain Bears.

[Heinz D.]

Nothing, eh? Interesting.

[Bearfacts]

Nothing, eh? Interesting.

D J Moore's next contract will probably be worked out through an extension starting in 2025 that may or may not actually lower his cap hit that year. There's no way of telling yet or how much the deal will be for and what amount is guaranteed but it's probably safe to say it will be north of $25 mil per year.

According to Brad Biggs Ryan Poles has already offered an extension to Keenan Allen which he declined so far preferring to test FA next spring. So there's a very good chance he may be one and done in Chicago. If that's the case we'll need to replace him as early as 2025 and we have that opportunity in this draft.

[dplank]

One of Odunze or Turner will be there at 9. Take whichever is there and it’s a win.

[Heinz D.]

D J Moore's next contract will probably be worked out through an extension starting in 2025 that may or may not actually lower his cap hit that year. There's no way of telling yet or how much the deal will be for and what amount is guaranteed but it's probably safe to say it will be north of $25 mil per year.

Probably, yeah! And Poles wants that contract to be inked by Chicago!

According to Brad Biggs Ryan Poles has already offered an extension to Keenan Allen which he declined so far preferring to test FA next spring. So there's a very good chance he may be one and done in Chicago. If that's the case we'll need to replace him as early as 2025 and we have that opportunity in this draft.

You have a link for that?

Either way, they'll most likely tag him if he isn't extended.

[G08]

According to Brad Biggs Ryan Poles has already offered an extension to Keenan Allen which he declined so far preferring to test FA next spring. So there's a very good chance he may be one and done in Chicago. If that's the case we'll need to replace him as early as 2025 and we have that opportunity in this draft.

Got a link to this?

[Bearfacts]

D J Moore's next contract will probably be worked out through an extension starting in 2025 that may or may not actually lower his cap hit that year. There's no way of telling yet or how much the deal will be for and what amount is guaranteed but it's probably safe to say it will be north of $25 mil per year.

Probably, yeah! And Poles wants that contract to be inked by Chicago!

According to Brad Biggs Ryan Poles has already offered an extension to Keenan Allen which he declined so far preferring to test FA next spring. So there's a very good chance he may be one and done in Chicago. If that's the case we'll need to replace him as early as 2025 and we have that opportunity in this draft.

You have a link for that?

Either way, they'll most likely tag him if he isn't extended.

Check the Trib Heinz. It was in something Biggs wrote. I don't have a subscription right now and won't until camp begins.

And I wouldn't be all that positive they tag him either.