Offensive Line - What will it look like

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dplank
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Arkansasbear wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 11:22 am
dplank wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:52 am

Medical uncertainty probably. I think they view Shelton as a strong backup caliber player, he was paid that way at least...Bates could easily play G and may be better there, and with the uncertainty around both Jenkins (injury/contract) and Davis (injury/cunt) that could be a really smart move for us.

I'm really hoping for this move now, think it would be a great move by Poles. Our OL would be so deep:

Starting 5: Jones, Jenkins, Williams, Davis, Wright
Backup 5: Shelton, Bates, Kiran, Carter, Borom or Curhan
I think they view Shelton as more than a strong backup caliber player. He started 17 games for the Rams last year and was decent. I think he's viewed as a viable starter at cener.

If we sign Williams and he wins the starting job (which I'm fairly sure he will) I don't see Shelton staying on the roster. He and Williams are both "center only" types. Bates will be the backup at center I'd think. Need the backs to have more flexibility when your starting center is a "center only" type. If Williams doesn't sign and Bates wins the center job, I could see Shelton being the backup at center. It just means if an OG goes down you likely have two starter change - Bates to OG and Shelton to center.
That concept suggest dumping Shelton for....who exactly? J'Tyre Carter or Larry Borom? I'd keep the better talent, it's only 3M and not sure what savings we get by cutting him if any.
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wab wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 11:54 am Williams has position versatility too. He was a guard and a spot OT for Dallas. He didn't move to center until he went to Miami.
Thanks, I didn't remember that.
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A 17 minute look at some of Darnell Wright's film from last season:

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Here are a couple of recent articles rankings offensive lines as things stand heading into the season:
PFF

11. CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears' offensive line, as it got healthy, was one of the top units in the NFL toward the second half of the 2023 season. Center Ryan Bates is expected to complete the unit and bring it to the next level.

In Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, Chicago has a promising young offensive tackle duo. And Teven Jenkins has performed extremely well since moving to guard, earning 70.0-plus PFF overall grades in 2022 and 2023.

Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-offen ... ank-ragnow
SHARP FOOTBALL ANALYSIS

12. Chicago Bears
The only new addition to the Bears’ offensive line is center Coleman Shelton, who signed after spending the first five years of his career with the Rams. Shelton joins a unit that finished fifth and second in ESPN’s pass block and run block win rates, respectively.

Full article: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/a ... -rankings/
Interesting that each site expects a different starting center. Nevertheless it's encouraging the Bears OL is being talked about as being close to a top 10 unit.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:36 pm Here are a couple of recent articles rankings offensive lines as things stand heading into the season:
PFF

11. CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears' offensive line, as it got healthy, was one of the top units in the NFL toward the second half of the 2023 season. Center Ryan Bates is expected to complete the unit and bring it to the next level.

In Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, Chicago has a promising young offensive tackle duo. And Teven Jenkins has performed extremely well since moving to guard, earning 70.0-plus PFF overall grades in 2022 and 2023.

Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-offen ... ank-ragnow
SHARP FOOTBALL ANALYSIS

12. Chicago Bears
The only new addition to the Bears’ offensive line is center Coleman Shelton, who signed after spending the first five years of his career with the Rams. Shelton joins a unit that finished fifth and second in ESPN’s pass block and run block win rates, respectively.

Full article: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/a ... -rankings/
Interesting that each site expects a different starting center. Nevertheless it's encouraging the Bears OL is being talked about as being close to a top 10 unit.
Someone is going to need to explain to me how PFF has us with the top WR/TE group, a decent RB group, the 11th ranked OL, a Top 5 LB group, and a Top 5 DB group - yet places our overall roster ranking at 20 I think it was? WTF? They have our DL at Bottom 6, but still....we're elite at several position groups.
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dplank wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:51 pm Someone is going to need to explain to me how PFF has us with the top WR/TE group, a decent RB group, the 11th ranked OL, a Top 5 LB group, and a Top 5 DB group - yet places our overall roster ranking at 20 I think it was?
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dplank wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:51 pm Someone is going to need to explain to me how PFF has us with the top WR/TE group, a decent RB group, the 11th ranked OL, a Top 5 LB group, and a Top 5 DB group - yet places our overall roster ranking at 20 I think it was? WTF? They have our DL at Bottom 6, but still....we're elite at several position groups.
I blame Common Core Math.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:12 am
dplank wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:51 pm Someone is going to need to explain to me how PFF has us with the top WR/TE group, a decent RB group, the 11th ranked OL, a Top 5 LB group, and a Top 5 DB group - yet places our overall roster ranking at 20 I think it was? WTF? They have our DL at Bottom 6, but still....we're elite at several position groups.
I blame Common Core Math.
Those were some dark times at my house. The twins came home and needed help with their math homework. Given one of my majors in college was math I told myself it would be a piece of cake. When I got started they looked at me with giant eyes and said that’s not now you do it and started to explain “chunking” on how to due division. Went to talk to the teacher and luckily she said she thought it was stupid too and to do whatever I wanted. Other teachers were giving poor grades to students who didn’t use the “method” they were teaching.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:25 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:12 am

I blame Common Core Math.
Those were some dark times at my house. The twins came home and needed help with their math homework. Given one of my majors in college was math I told myself it would be a piece of cake. When I got started they looked at me with giant eyes and said that’s not now you do it and started to explain “chunking” on how to due division. Went to talk to the teacher and luckily she said she thought it was stupid too and to do whatever I wanted. Other teachers were giving poor grades to students who didn’t use the “method” they were teaching.
I do FP&A for a living and I got confused by Common Core.
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Gabriel thinks Jenkins needs to improve his pass blocking if he going to get a contract from the Bears.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-b ... n-chicago/
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:36 am Gabriel thinks Jenkins needs to improve his pass blocking if he going to get a contract from the Bears.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-b ... n-chicago/
I'm really not gonna cry about it if someone pays him a ton of cash and we don't match. Can't pay everyone.
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Kind of a silly argument in the piece though, i.e. "when we look of money that some guards got in free agency this spring...". It's fine to not pay him that much and instead give him around what he's worth?

Obviously he and the front office might be miles away from each other but if we got him to sign for, say, another 3 years at $10m per I'd probably do that now.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

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(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
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malk wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:25 am Kind of a silly argument in the piece though, i.e. "when we look of money that some guards got in free agency this spring...". It's fine to not pay him that much and instead give him around what he's worth?

Obviously he and the front office might be miles away from each other but if we got him to sign for, say, another 3 years at $10m per I'd probably do that now.
Yea it is...and Jenkins is probably my favorite Bear now that Justin is gone. BUT - you can't pay at the top end of the wage scale everywhere, so if someone else is going to pay him at that level I'd be fine walking away. There's been no indication from either side what their target price is, so it's pure speculation. Jenkins would be smart to ask for a high number and if not met then explore free agency where he will likely get what he wants from someone else.

We have a lot of draft capital next year, so adding a big G in the 2nd would be a way to keep cycling low cost/high performing G play. Just don't throw some 6th rounder at the problem please...
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I still wonder how Kiran Amegadjie fits into the plans. I know he wasn't healthy during the draft so he slipped, but do the Bears see him as a guard or a tackle? Is he a hedge against Braxton not progressing, or as a potential replacement for one of Jenkins/Davis?
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wab wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:58 am I still wonder how Kiran Amegadjie fits into the plans. I know he wasn't healthy during the draft so he slipped, but do the Bears see him as a guard or a tackle? Is he a hedge against Braxton not progressing, or as a potential replacement for one of Jenkins/Davis?
I think they see him as an answer to any of those spots depending on what they need from him.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:36 am Gabriel thinks Jenkins needs to improve his pass blocking if he going to get a contract from the Bears.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-b ... n-chicago/
From the article:
Teven Jenkins still has a lot to prove.

He played 397 pass-blocking snaps last season, allowing 17 pressures on the quarterback. For context, Miami guard Robert Hunt just signed a lucrative free agent contract with Carolina. He played 376 snaps and allowed five pressures. Chris Lindstrom from Atlanta played 606 snaps and allowed 15.
For context, Pro Football Reference has a "Pocket Time" stat which it defines as "the average time the QB had in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball or pressure collapses the pocket". They also have a "Pressure" percentage defined as "times pressured per drop back".

A low pocket time combined with a low pressure percentage must therefore indicate the QB was generally getting the ball out quickly on purpose rather than because he was under pressure. Conversely a high pocket time combined with a high pressure percentage must indicate the QB was frequently holding onto the ball too long and allowing pressure to develop.

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a pocket time of 2.1 seconds, the lowest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 15.7%, 4th lowest in the league. Robert Hunt allowed 5 pressures in 376 snaps (1.33%).

Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder had a pocket time of 2.3 seconds, the 6th lowest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 19.4%, 14th lowest in the league. Chris Lindstrom allowed 15 pressures in 606 snaps (2.48%).

Justin Fields on the other hand had a pocket time of 2.8 seconds, the highest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 26.5%, the 3rd highest in the league. Tevin Jenkins allowed 17 pressures in 397 snaps (4.28%).

Given those numbers is it any wonder that guards playing for Miami and Atlanta allowed fewer pressures per pass-blocking snap than Jenkins did in Chicago?
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Poles spoke a lot about his position versatility and basically just said you can't have enough good, versatile offensive lineman. With future question marks at LT, RG, and LG it made sense to draft a talented guy like him, develop him this season as a backup, then see where he's needed next year after some of these things shake out.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:39 am
Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:36 am Gabriel thinks Jenkins needs to improve his pass blocking if he going to get a contract from the Bears.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-b ... n-chicago/
From the article:
Teven Jenkins still has a lot to prove.

He played 397 pass-blocking snaps last season, allowing 17 pressures on the quarterback. For context, Miami guard Robert Hunt just signed a lucrative free agent contract with Carolina. He played 376 snaps and allowed five pressures. Chris Lindstrom from Atlanta played 606 snaps and allowed 15.
For context, Pro Football Reference has a "Pocket Time" stat which it defines as "the average time the QB had in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball or pressure collapses the pocket". They also have a "Pressure" percentage defined as "times pressured per drop back".

A low pocket time combined with a low pressure percentage must therefore indicate the QB was generally getting the ball out quickly on purpose rather than because he was under pressure. Conversely a high pocket time combined with a high pressure percentage must indicate the QB was frequently holding onto the ball too long and allowing pressure to develop.

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a pocket time of 2.1 seconds, the lowest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 15.7%, 4th lowest in the league. Robert Hunt allowed 5 pressures in 376 snaps (1.33%).

Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder had a pocket time of 2.3 seconds, the 6th lowest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 19.4%, 14th lowest in the league. Chris Lindstrom allowed 15 pressures in 606 snaps (2.48%).

Justin Fields on the other hand had a pocket time of 2.8 seconds, the highest in the league, and a pressure percentage of 26.5%, the 3rd highest in the league. Tevin Jenkins allowed 17 pressures in 397 snaps (4.28%).

Given those numbers is it any wonder that guards playing for Miami and Atlanta allowed fewer pressures per pass-blocking snap than Jenkins did in Chicago?
Yep

Any play can be a pressure if you hold it long enough.

Remember that Shea always had pretty solid "pressure" numbers - that didn't correlate with being "good"
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dplank wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:45 am
malk wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:25 am Kind of a silly argument in the piece though, i.e. "when we look of money that some guards got in free agency this spring...". It's fine to not pay him that much and instead give him around what he's worth?

Obviously he and the front office might be miles away from each other but if we got him to sign for, say, another 3 years at $10m per I'd probably do that now.
Yea it is...and Jenkins is probably my favorite Bear now that Justin is gone. BUT - you can't pay at the top end of the wage scale everywhere, so if someone else is going to pay him at that level I'd be fine walking away. There's been no indication from either side what their target price is, so it's pure speculation. Jenkins would be smart to ask for a high number and if not met then explore free agency where he will likely get what he wants from someone else.

We have a lot of draft capital next year, so adding a big G in the 2nd would be a way to keep cycling low cost/high performing G play. Just don't throw some 6th rounder at the problem please...
So why were we arguing?
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Using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats EPSN keep metrics on pass blocking based on the rate at which linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer and run blocking metrics based on more complex analysis.

This article lists the top 20 OTs and IOLs for pass blocking and the top 10 of each for run blocking for last season (as well as defensive line pass rush and run stops): https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/3 ... yers-teams

I'm not sure why they list 20 for one and only 10 for the other.

They have Braxton Jones as the 5th best OT for pass blocking and the 6th best for run blocking.

Only one other OT is included in both the top 20 list for pass blocking and top 10 for run blocking, Braden Smith of the Colts at 19th and 8th respectively.

That's quite remarkable when you consider how many pundits were suggesting Ryan Poles should draft an LT with the 9th overall pick.

For the IOL ratings, there are 4 players in both pass and run block lists. One of them is Teven Jenkins at 19th for pass blocking and 4th for run blocking.

The others are:
Landon Dickerson (Eagles): 7th pass blocking, 1st run blocking
Jason Kelce (Eagles): 8th pass blocking, 8th run blocking
Will Hernandez (Cardinals): 13th pass blocking, 9th run blocking

Before we get too excited though two other names on the top 20 for IOL pass blocking are, incredibly, Cody Whitehair (12th) and Lucas Patrick (14th).

Overall the Bears ranked 5th for pass block win rate and 2nd for run block win rate, which is astonishing!

They were the only team ranked in the top 5 for both.

Only 4 other teams are ranked in the top 10 for both run and pass:
Ravens: 9th pass blocking, 5th run blocking
Bills: 6th passing blocking, 7th run blocking
Broncos: 8th pass blocking, 3rd run blocking
Eagles: 7th pass blocking, 1st run blocking
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wab wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:58 am Is he a hedge against Braxton not progressing, or as a potential replacement for one of Jenkins/Davis?
Yes
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:23 am Using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats EPSN keep metrics on pass blocking based on the rate at which linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer and run blocking metrics based on more complex analysis.

This article lists the top 20 OTs and IOLs for pass blocking and the top 10 of each for run blocking for last season (as well as defensive line pass rush and run stops): https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/3 ... yers-teams

I'm not sure why they list 20 for one and only 10 for the other.

They have Braxton Jones as the 5th best OT for pass blocking and the 6th best for run blocking.

Only one other OT is included in both the top 20 list for pass blocking and top 10 for run blocking, Braden Smith of the Colts at 19th and 8th respectively.

That's quite remarkable when you consider how many pundits were suggesting Ryan Poles should draft an LT with the 9th overall pick.

For the IOL ratings, there are 4 players in both pass and run block lists. One of them is Teven Jenkins at 19th for pass blocking and 4th for run blocking.

The others are:
Landon Dickerson (Eagles): 7th pass blocking, 1st run blocking
Jason Kelce (Eagles): 8th pass blocking, 8th run blocking
Will Hernandez (Cardinals): 13th pass blocking, 9th run blocking

Before we get too excited though two other names on the top 20 for IOL pass blocking are, incredibly, Cody Whitehair (12th) and Lucas Patrick (14th).

Overall the Bears ranked 5th for pass block win rate and 2nd for run block win rate, which is astonishing!

They were the only team ranked in the top 5 for both.

Only 4 other teams are ranked in the top 10 for both run and pass:
Ravens: 9th pass blocking, 5th run blocking
Bills: 6th passing blocking, 7th run blocking
Broncos: 8th pass blocking, 3rd run blocking
Eagles: 7th pass blocking, 1st run blocking
Taking this at a glance this is either really damning for Fields or a bizarre outlier based on Fields' unusual style of play. But the former seems most likely tbh.
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malk wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:36 am Taking this at a glance this is either really damning for Fields or a bizarre outlier based on Fields' unusual style of play. But the former seems most likely tbh.
It's interesting given Fields' aforementioned Pocket Time per Pro Football reference was a league high 2.8 seconds whereas ESPN measure OL holding pass blocks for 2.5 seconds. It does make you wonder how good the Bears' O-line might look with a QB who gets rid of the ball at little bit faster.

We got an idea from Bagent who was pressured a lot less than Fields' 26.5%. Bagent's 16.4% rate would have rated 5th best in the league if he'd thrown enough passes to qualify and that was with a Pocket Time of 2.6 seconds, but of course he didn't provide the downfield threat.

A potential knock on Williams in college was not getting the ball out quickly but that was couple with an exceptional ability to navigate the pocket. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly he gets the ball out in the pros.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:30 pm
malk wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:36 am Taking this at a glance this is either really damning for Fields or a bizarre outlier based on Fields' unusual style of play. But the former seems most likely tbh.
It's interesting given Fields' aforementioned Pocket Time per Pro Football reference was a league high 2.8 seconds whereas ESPN measure OL holding pass blocks for 2.5 seconds. It does make you wonder how good the Bears' O-line might look with a QB who gets rid of the ball at little bit faster.

We got an idea from Bagent who was pressured a lot less than Fields' 26.5%. Bagent's 16.4% rate would have rated 5th best in the league if he'd thrown enough passes to qualify and that was with a Pocket Time of 2.6 seconds, but of course he didn't provide the downfield threat.

A potential knock on Williams in college was not getting the ball out quickly but that was couple with an exceptional ability to navigate the pocket. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly he gets the ball out in the pros.
The other aspect that I don't know whether they account for or not is a collapsing pocket, but where the blocker is still engaged. Brax often got driven back into the pocket but stayed with it, even though it created a situation where the QB felt he needed to bail. Fields absolutely bailed too quick and too often, no doubt about that, but I just wonder if we're looking specifically at OL pass pro win rates how they score something like that.
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dplank wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:16 pm The other aspect that I don't know whether they account for or not is a collapsing pocket, but where the blocker is still engaged. Brax often got driven back into the pocket but stayed with it, even though it created a situation where the QB felt he needed to bail. Fields absolutely bailed too quick and too often, no doubt about that, but I just wonder if we're looking specifically at OL pass pro win rates how they score something like that.
True, I've often made the same observation. Even last year he was still susceptible to being driven back and even keeping his body between the rusher and the QB it still results in the latter feeling pressure from his blind side. It remains his primary failing. I'm no expert but would suggest he needs to initiate contact more often rather than waiting for the rusher to do so because it's then that he gets driven back several steps before managing to anchor.

Still at least we have a Super Bowl winning LT... sorry that's Super Hole winning LT!

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wab wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:58 am I still wonder how Kiran Amegadjie fits into the plans. I know he wasn't healthy during the draft so he slipped, but do the Bears see him as a guard or a tackle? Is he a hedge against Braxton not progressing, or as a potential replacement for one of Jenkins/Davis?
Yes.....either or both. He has the size and power to play inside and in college showed enough savvy to play LT so it's anyone's guess what the long term plan is. I think Poles just saw a kid who was undervalued by others due to his injury and playing at an Ivy League school and drafted him. Where he plays comes next.
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Bearfacts wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:37 pm
wab wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:58 am I still wonder how Kiran Amegadjie fits into the plans. I know he wasn't healthy during the draft so he slipped, but do the Bears see him as a guard or a tackle? Is he a hedge against Braxton not progressing, or as a potential replacement for one of Jenkins/Davis?
Yes.....either or both. He has the size and power to play inside and in college showed enough savvy to play LT so it's anyone's guess what the long term plan is. I think Poles just saw a kid who was undervalued by others due to his injury and playing at an Ivy League school and drafted him. Where he plays comes next.
It was a risk free pick. You cannot have too many good OL prospects or a deep enough bench there.

Kiran was either a deliberate hedge against Jenkins or Jones' impending FA or a target of opportunity.

I'm fine either way.
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It's this sort of thing we don't want to see from Williams.

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I wouldn't be surprised if PFF class that as a sack or pressure given up by more than one O-linemen.
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An enjoyable watch:



Loved his dad referring to "real" football! :evilgrin:
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:12 pm It's this sort of thing we don't want to see from Williams.

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I wouldn't be surprised if PFF class that as a sack or pressure given up by more than one O-linemen.
IMO that was his worst game as a pro. And I think where most of his detractors threw in the towel. He was absolutely terrible, lost, and it was hard to watch.
He was not that guy after he came back from injury, he just wasn't.
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