Zacch Pickens / DL article

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dplank
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Good read here: https://apple.news/AZ3aFP7DOTfChjyqN1x2MXg

Correctly noted our depth problem at the DL position and that we have the third most cap space in the league. Now is the window to add a guy ahead of camp, I’m in for Ngakoue. That’ll help inside also allowing Walker to play more there if Pickens doesn’t significantly improve from last season.
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The Marshall Plan
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I wasn’t aware of the third most cap space thing.

I think this team is really close to something special. If there’s a vet out there to be had or if we can trade let’s say a third or fourth for a guy we can sign to an extension then let’s do it.
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They will. Just a bit closer to camp. I think he regretted the Riley Reiff and YN contracts a bit and is going to be more patient this year. Hopefully it pays off better than his strategy the last 2 seasons.
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dplank
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HurricaneBear wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:00 am They will. Just a bit closer to camp. I think he regretted the Riley Reiff and YN contracts a bit and is going to be more patient this year. Hopefully it pays off better than his strategy the last 2 seasons.
Probably fantasy, but I thought Ngakoue was starting to play better before his injury and I just have a weird feeling he could play well again if given a 2nd year. But, it's pure guesswork.
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:31 am Good read here: https://apple.news/AZ3aFP7DOTfChjyqN1x2MXg

Correctly noted our depth problem at the DL position and that we have the third most cap space in the league. Now is the window to add a guy ahead of camp, I’m in for Ngakoue. That’ll help inside also allowing Walker to play more there if Pickens doesn’t significantly improve from last season.
The article says we have the 6th most cap space, but I don't understand how they came up with that. Spotrac has us 15th in terms of cap space (top 51 contracts) and OTC has us at 14th (both show just over $22MM available), and I don't know if that accounts for any of the rookies who haven't signed yet.
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LacertineForest wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:16 am
dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:31 am Good read here: https://apple.news/AZ3aFP7DOTfChjyqN1x2MXg

Correctly noted our depth problem at the DL position and that we have the third most cap space in the league. Now is the window to add a guy ahead of camp, I’m in for Ngakoue. That’ll help inside also allowing Walker to play more there if Pickens doesn’t significantly improve from last season.
The article says we have the 6th most cap space, but I don't understand how they came up with that. Spotrac has us 15th in terms of cap space (top 51 contracts) and OTC has us at 14th (both show just over $22MM available), and I don't know if that accounts for any of the rookies who haven't signed yet.
Yeah, I went and looked as well and I'm not seeing where they have anywhere close to the 6th most.

As far as the depth goes, I've said before - I really don't think you are going to see much movement. Maybe a waiver claim after the last of camp cuts. And honestly I could see them claiming a NT type over a DE.
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dplank
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Yea it did say 6th, my bad...either way we definitely have enough space to add Ngakoue if we want him. His price should be much lower this year also, no one is paying that guy 10M this year. But hell, I'd be happy with Greene also and he's available for like 2M probably.
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Moriarty
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?

The article says
In 2025, Ryan Poles will have plenty of money to spend again. The Bears currently have the sixth-most cap space in the NFL in 2025

In 2024, they're at 22M without signing Caleb or Odunze, who will not be cheap. Spotrac has them at 15th, which will no doubt drop after their signings (to 8M, maybe?).


You can use 2025 space to play games and push costs into the future, of course. But for a team that's coming off 7-10 and starting a rookie QB, it's arguably a bit early to be starting that process.
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:22 am Yea it did say 6th, my bad...either way we definitely have enough space to add Ngakoue if we want him. His price should be much lower this year also, no one is paying that guy 10M this year. But hell, I'd be happy with Greene also and he's available for like 2M probably.
We may have the 6th most cap space left, but we still have to sign 2 first round picks (they will both be decent hits to the cap at 1 and 9). I don't think we have a ton of money to go after a player. If I recall correctly, after signing our rookies and putting back "reserves" in case of an injury, I think we had like $6M left. I think Greene can be had with what we have left, but I don't know about Ngakoue, unless you give him some voided years to string a signing bonus over.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:41 am
dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:22 am Yea it did say 6th, my bad...either way we definitely have enough space to add Ngakoue if we want him. His price should be much lower this year also, no one is paying that guy 10M this year. But hell, I'd be happy with Greene also and he's available for like 2M probably.
We may have the 6th most cap space left, but we still have to sign 2 first round picks (they will both be decent hits to the cap at 1 and 9). I don't think we have a ton of money to go after a player. If I recall correctly, after signing our rookies and putting back "reserves" in case of an injury, I think we had like $6M left. I think Greene can be had with what we have left, but I don't know about Ngakoue, unless you give him some voided years to string a signing bonus over.
Looking at the article, it says the 6th most in 2025, not now. I was thinking we didn't have much cap left this year, but was thought maybe at this time of the year no one did, so we could be 6th.
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:22 am Yea it did say 6th, my bad...either way we definitely have enough space to add Ngakoue if we want him. His price should be much lower this year also, no one is paying that guy 10M this year. But hell, I'd be happy with Greene also and he's available for like 2M probably.
I said last year the signing would be ok if it ended up being (at least some of) the difference between making the playoffs or not and we were close enough that it was probably worthwhile on that basis. This year, he'll be a lot less as you say, low enough to make it worthwhile, well, we do need bodies on the line...
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:07 am
HurricaneBear wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:00 am They will. Just a bit closer to camp. I think he regretted the Riley Reiff and YN contracts a bit and is going to be more patient this year. Hopefully it pays off better than his strategy the last 2 seasons.
Probably fantasy, but I thought Ngakoue was starting to play better before his injury and I just have a weird feeling he could play well again if given a 2nd year. But, it's pure guesswork.
I didn't think Ngakoue was anything to write home about last year. And we played markedly better after his injury (Granted that is more a Sweat thing than anything)

It was pretty much $10 million wasted in Cap Space - I don't needs seconds on that meal.
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Ogbah cheap with incentives is probably the Add

I also think Randolph makes the team and that's just a perception thing since he was a UDFA - If we picked him in the 5th instead it would "count" more as to Depth

Justin Jones was the only real loss from last years DL - and the other two DT were Decently Highly Drafted Rookies so some growth shouldn't be impossible

But the other "losses" were more in name only - they were bodies/just a guy
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The worry on DL Depth - in my opinion - is overblown. Granted its not our best position - but its also the offseason so we have to have SOMETHING to complain about /argue about

It usually just comes down to injuries.

If Sweat is healthy this is a Solid Group (none of this bottom 5 stuff) - And if he's hurt then it's a real problem and that doesn't really change if our 4th DE was Better than the current guy we got there.
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RichH55 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:16 am The worry on DL Depth - in my opinion - is overblown. Granted its not our best position - but its also the offseason so we have to have SOMETHING to complain about /argue about

It usually just comes down to injuries.

If Sweat is healthy this is a Solid Group (none of this bottom 5 stuff) - And if he's hurt then it's a real problem and that doesn't really change if our 4th DE was Better than the current guy we got there.
We were 26th in pressure % last year. Admittedly that includes 8 games without Sweat but Jones was out best performer after Sweat. I think as a team we'll be ok but that's definitely a case of overcoming it rather than the unit as a whole being ok.

And assuming we can remain a good rush defence, I'd like a one trick pony who can come in on third down, pin their ears back and get after the QB.
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malk wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:50 am
RichH55 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:16 am The worry on DL Depth - in my opinion - is overblown. Granted its not our best position - but its also the offseason so we have to have SOMETHING to complain about /argue about

It usually just comes down to injuries.

If Sweat is healthy this is a Solid Group (none of this bottom 5 stuff) - And if he's hurt then it's a real problem and that doesn't really change if our 4th DE was Better than the current guy we got there.
We were 26th in pressure % last year. Admittedly that includes 8 games without Sweat but Jones was out best performer after Sweat. I think as a team we'll be ok but that's definitely a case of overcoming it rather than the unit as a whole being ok.

And assuming we can remain a good rush defence, I'd like a one trick pony who can come in on third down, pin their ears back and get after the QB.
Yeah the Sweat caveat is a pretty major one:)

I was one of the biggest Justin Jones guys on the board - liked him out of college, liked the signing, etc - I do think some natural growth for Dexter will help offset some of that though

I still want Ogbah (cheap) - but didn't we get a one trick pony (bargain aisle addition) already?
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malk wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:50 am
RichH55 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:16 am The worry on DL Depth - in my opinion - is overblown. Granted its not our best position - but its also the offseason so we have to have SOMETHING to complain about /argue about

It usually just comes down to injuries.

If Sweat is healthy this is a Solid Group (none of this bottom 5 stuff) - And if he's hurt then it's a real problem and that doesn't really change if our 4th DE was Better than the current guy we got there.
We were 26th in pressure % last year. Admittedly that includes 8 games without Sweat but Jones was out best performer after Sweat. I think as a team we'll be ok but that's definitely a case of overcoming it rather than the unit as a whole being ok.

And assuming we can remain a good rush defence, I'd like a one trick pony who can come in on third down, pin their ears back and get after the QB.
This is it right here, we were 26th in pressure last year and we lost our #1 DT and our pass rush RDE as well as our DE4 who was a solid run defender in Greene. We play 8 guys. We replaced Jones, Ngakoue, and Greene with Byron Cowart (scrub, hurts me to say as a former Terp), Austin Booker (Late round rookie), and journeyman Jacob Martin. That is a clear step backwards talent wise, and our starting point was 26th in pressure%. The depth is the problem, the starters are middle/lower middle tier and that's assuming Dex takes the step forward that I expect him to.
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:40 pm
malk wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:50 am

We were 26th in pressure % last year. Admittedly that includes 8 games without Sweat but Jones was out best performer after Sweat. I think as a team we'll be ok but that's definitely a case of overcoming it rather than the unit as a whole being ok.

And assuming we can remain a good rush defence, I'd like a one trick pony who can come in on third down, pin their ears back and get after the QB.
This is it right here, we were 26th in pressure last year and we lost our #1 DT and our pass rush RDE as well as our DE4 who was a solid run defender in Greene. We play 8 guys. We replaced Jones, Ngakoue, and Greene with Byron Cowart (scrub, hurts me to say as a former Terp), Austin Booker (Late round rookie), and journeyman Jacob Martin. That is a clear step backwards talent wise, and our starting point was 26th in pressure%. The depth is the problem, the starters are middle/lower middle tier and that's assuming Dex takes the step forward that I expect him to.

Any chance Sweat for a full year makes - maybe some difference? Seems super odd to ignore that part.
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"We replaced Jones, Ngakoue, and Greene"

Which is to say - Jones.

The other guys are JAGs at this stage.
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Could we trade Jaylon Johnson for a quality DE2?
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:12 pm Could we trade Jaylon Johnson for a quality DE2?
I don't know if trading a high end corner is worth that trade. Just my opinion.
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mmmc_35 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:12 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:12 pm Could we trade Jaylon Johnson for a quality DE2?
I don't know if trading a high end corner is worth that trade. Just my opinion.
I'm thinking that way because JJ is around $20M per year. An equal AAV v a DE gets you a Top 7-ish DE.

With the Cover-2 we need the pass rush because it's not a system designed for blitz packages.

Our depth at CB is much better than at DL with Gordon and Stevenson there to move over to CB1 and CB2.
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Couple key points that give me hope.

1. Sweat for a full season
2. Dexter and Pickens are entering year two and both seem to have hit it hard this offseason
3. If Dom Robinson is ever going to elevate his game, this is the year. Adam Hoge made a comment the other day that two players have come into camp looking like a completely different guy than last year, Dexter and Robinson. It’s a long shot, but he’s got the tools.
4. Walker has a proven track record of being steady..

All of this said, I fully expect Poles to be active in the trade market. There will be guys available and he has that extra 2nd to work with.
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Well if DomRob can make a dramatic leap forward then problem solved, I’d be absolutely shocked by that.
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You are losing exactly about a half of a sack per game in Jones and Ngakoue (combined). That doesn't feel like a huge hill to climb.
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dplank wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:03 am Well if DomRob can make a dramatic leap forward then problem solved, I’d be absolutely shocked by that.
You sir are not allowed to make a potential positive comment about DomRob.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 8:51 am
dplank wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:03 am Well if DomRob can make a dramatic leap forward then problem solved, I’d be absolutely shocked by that.
You sir are not allowed to make a potential positive comment about DomRob.
lol - I think he’s absolutely terrible but anything can happen
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wab wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 8:17 am You are losing exactly about a half of a sack per game in Jones and Ngakoue (combined). That doesn't feel like a huge hill to climb.
Factually true, but not a very helpful way to frame it.


You'd lose the same number of sacks by losing Sweat for 11.5/17 games.
Would anyone argue that, if we kept Jones & Ngakoue for 2024, but lost Sweat to injury for 11.5 games, that missing Sweat for 2/3 of the season wasn't a significant blow?
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wab wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 8:17 am You are losing exactly about a half of a sack per game in Jones and Ngakoue (combined). That doesn't feel like a huge hill to climb.
Exactly about? :P

With Jones (739 snaps) there are the 4.5 sacks but also the 22 overall pressures and 10 tackles for loss and in those pressures there were 12 QB knockdowns. Those are exactly the types of play that lead to interceptions and they'll definitely be missed if they aren't picked up elsewhere. Fortunately Dexter had 17 pressures on only 432 snaps so hopefully he can surpass Jones with a bigger load. 0 TFL last year but, again, hopefully that comes with development and him actually being on the field for rush downs!

Ngakoue wasn't anywhere near as good, 11 overall pressures and 6 TFLs can likely be made up by whomever gets those snaps. 592 to distribute and Sweat will get around 350 of those, the rest going to booker and a DomRob getting a few more...

Pickens taking up from what Green left...

We're not far off but still feel one light.
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wab wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 8:17 am You are losing exactly about a half of a sack per game in Jones and Ngakoue (combined). That doesn't feel like a huge hill to climb.
You're losing roughly (okay, "exactly about" :D) 700 snaps. That's what needs to be replaced.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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