This is a weird use of odds.dplank wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 7:54 am Looking at a mile high hay stack and not being able to see a needle is not proof that a needle doesn’t exist. Odds are near zero that we are alone IMO. Whether anything has visited here or not I’ll put at a coin flip.
I agree on the first part - We are talking about darn near infinite space - and you are only talking like 1 other planet of life.
The Coin Flip part is where it's jarring. 50/50? I mean look at it from our perspective (we haven't found it). But even if we did - Like we were told Planet X has intelligent Life - somehow given proof.
What are the odds we could visit the planet? Let's invent Light Speed Tech (which, we don't have mind you) - Just for this experiment. Overcome all the logistical issues for Food/Water/Radiation over a long period of time. Figure out Space Birth as well - and the crew is perfect.
Even there's a pretty quick limit on what we could ACTUALLY visit. And it's a LOT sooner than the likelihood of this goldilocks planet (which could itself - even if we KNEW where it was and mastered the equivalent of multiple Manhattan Projects AND lucked out where its was close enough to be feasible (*) - the Planet would need to be something we could figure out in order to visit. Like if they thrive on 10,000 Degrees or like 1 Kelvin (two extremes) - then we can't really visit.
(*) Like if it's 3000 Light Years Away - kind of a deal breaker right off the bat.
50/50 is just way off.
let it burn then