Training Camp Objectives

For all things Chicago Bears

Moderator: wab

User avatar
Grizzled
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5847
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
Has thanked: 658 times
Been thanked: 570 times

Select the kick off returner - VJJ, Scott, or Carter
Decide on the punt returner - Carter or Pettis
Choose who will be QB2 - Bagent or Reed
Finalize the OL - C and G. Amegadjie can challenge for both G spots
Get Caleb totally comfortable running an NFL offense against defenses. Make sure he reduces his propensities to turn the ball over by fumbling
Decide on a running back rotation and see if Herbert is part of it
Bring in another DE
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

Grizzled wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2024 8:26 am Select the kick off returner - VJJ, Scott, or Carter
Decide on the punt returner - Carter or Pettis
Choose who will be QB2 - Bagent or Reed
Finalize the OL - C and G. Amegadjie can challenge for both G spots
Get Caleb totally comfortable running an NFL offense against defenses. Make sure he reduces his propensities to turn the ball over by fumbling
Decide on a running back rotation and see if Herbert is part of it
Bring in another DE
Image

1. VJJ and Herbert will be the two returners (I think the new format uses two guys)
2. Pettis at PR and WR6
3. Dark Horse - Brett Rypien wins QB2!
4. I'll guess Bates for the starting C job but it's a toss up. Everyone else will be same as last year.
5. Yes please
6. Swift will be the clear RB1, Herbert and Johnson splitting RB2/3 reps
7. Ngakoue please!
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9015
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Parts Unknown
Has thanked: 1089 times
Been thanked: 1500 times

What is with the Bags hate? This guy is Swag On A Stick.

Bags wins QB2 by a lot. If it wasn’t for that fucker Caleb my boy would be QB1.
Image
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8352
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 552 times
Been thanked: 655 times

The Marshall Plan wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2024 8:55 am What is with the Bags hate? This guy is Swag On A Stick.

Bags wins QB2 by a lot. If it wasn’t for that fucker Caleb my boy would be QB1.
Basically people said nice things about him, while simulateously saying true but bad things about Fields.

Thus he is an enemy of the people.
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6764
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 76 times
Been thanked: 2250 times

The single biggest objective has to be preparing Williams. That's a given.

The second most important objective is installing the new Waldron offense effectively.

I'm with TMP in that I don't see any competition for the backup QB role. I'll be amazed if it's not Bagent. He showed a lot of potential last year and they won games with him. Over the offseason he's worked on areas of his game that he needs to improve. I'm looking forward to seeing if that's paid off when we get into preseason games.

Herbert will definitely be part of the RB rotation. I can see no reason for him not to be.

The center position's going to be interesting. Bates or Shelton? Shelton or Bates? Or could Poles make a move for Connor Williams?

Amegadjie's missed the whole of the offseason program while he recovers from his injury and might not be fit for camp. I therefore can't see him challenging anybody, but if he is fit then it's more likely he'll be playing OT and competing against Borom than OG. The Bears already have interior options and Amegadjie has the length for OT. As a 3rd round pick they won't risk stashing him on the practice squad so they might carry as many as 10 OL. Alternatively I wouldn't be surprised if they IR him for the year.

Defensively the main objective has to be improving the DL and that starts with last year's Day 2 draft picks. They need them to step up and take a leap forward in year 2. Hopefully Sweat will galvanise them all and raise the performance levels across the line. Eberflus suggested it was something he's expecting to see. He said the guys will respond to Sweat's example.

As for special teams, Hightower said both 1 or 2 KO returners can be used. I agree with dplank that Jones and Herbert are the front runners for the roles. They're a bit bigger than Scott and Carter and I suspect that may be advantageous. Perhaps more interesting though is whether Santos or Taylor will be taking the kicks. The latter said he was looking forward to being involved. I imagine they'll be a lot of experimenting with tactics and techniques given the ball has to land in a target zone and you don't want it going into the end zone or out-of-bounds. I can't wait to see what this new KO format looks like in preseason, not just for the Bears but to see what sort of approaches other teams are taking.
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4693
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 848 times
Been thanked: 359 times

1. Install the offense to get Williams comfortable
2. No injuries.

That is it.
User avatar
Bearfacts
Head Coach
Posts: 2169
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:33 am
Location: Colorado
Has thanked: 1216 times
Been thanked: 310 times

Other than the obvious regarding the offense the rest of the competition for roster spots is slim.

1) The KR job is Jones to lose. Hightower loves him and his potential. But we'll need two.
2) PR could be up in the air all preseason. If they thought Pettis was "the guy" why sign Carter unless for KR as well.
3) Swift will get the majority of the carries at RB. If Wheeler shows promise Herbert may be trade bait.
4) Bagent will still be QB #2 with Rypien #3 and Reed on the PS.
5) Amegadjie's role depends on how prepared he is to even practice let alone play.
6) Any addition to the DL would come after they evaluate what they have now.
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

Training camp objectives

1 - Develop Caleb Williams

2 - see #1
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6764
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 76 times
Been thanked: 2250 times

It's that dull period while we wait for training camp...

User avatar
docc
Head Coach
Posts: 3899
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Outpost of Reality S.E. Arizona
Has thanked: 1150 times
Been thanked: 203 times

..yes it is...
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9015
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Parts Unknown
Has thanked: 1089 times
Been thanked: 1500 times

HurricaneBear wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2024 2:59 pm Training camp objectives

1 - Develop Caleb Williams

2 - see #1
Kinda hard to argue with that one.

I mean, so goes Caleb, so goes the season right?
Image
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 3:32 am
HurricaneBear wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2024 2:59 pm Training camp objectives

1 - Develop Caleb Williams

2 - see #1
Kinda hard to argue with that one.

I mean, so goes Caleb, so goes the season right?
So goes Caleb so goes the Bears franchise moving forward. If Caleb, pick 1.1, a generational quarterback with this cast...if that fails who here would ever believe in the Bears again? If they don't get it right this time they're never going to get it right Jay Cutler should be the floor for Caleb and that would be disappointing.

If in 10 years Caleb Williams is not the Bears record holder for every passing category then the Chicago Bears will never have a franchise QB
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8352
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 552 times
Been thanked: 655 times

HurricaneBear wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 6:37 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 3:32 am

Kinda hard to argue with that one.

I mean, so goes Caleb, so goes the season right?
So goes Caleb so goes the Bears franchise moving forward. If Caleb, pick 1.1, a generational quarterback with this cast...if that fails who here would ever believe in the Bears again? If they don't get it right this time they're never going to get it right Jay Cutler should be the floor for Caleb and that would be disappointing.

If in 10 years Caleb Williams is not the Bears record holder for every passing category then the Chicago Bears will never have a franchise QB

10 years is probably too much runway
User avatar
Shadow
Assistant Coach
Posts: 742
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:47 am
Has thanked: 90 times
Been thanked: 154 times

The current Bears QB records are low hanging fruit.
Caleb should be able to break all the standing records in the next 3 years.
A modern offense is all that is needed and a willingness to throw the ball. Also, stop taking your foot off the gas in the fourth quarter just because you are up 10 points. Ice those games like other teams do.
Nothing wrong with winning by 20 points or more.
A new Era begins in the NFC North!

Happily, it finally involves the Bears.... :toast: :headbang: :transform: :jump:
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

I don't necessarily disagree with you @RichH55 and @Shadow but we are the Bears. It took 100 years to set the bar where its at now, as low as that is. We should break those records on his rookie contract. Someone should have broken them already.

Either way Caleb just break the damn records!
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.

64% comp rate
4,100 yards
23 TDs
5 INTs
100 QB rating
Playoffs

The only number there that doesn't seem reasonable is the INT's, I'd be fine up to 10.
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:51 am We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.

64% comp rate
4,100 yards
23 TDs
5 INTs
100 QB rating
Playoffs

The only number there that doesn't seem reasonable is the INT's, I'd be fine up to 10.
I was talking more career numbers. If Caleb doesn't break single season records his first few years, that's gonna be a bad sign
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

HurricaneBear wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:03 am
dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:51 am We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.

64% comp rate
4,100 yards
23 TDs
5 INTs
100 QB rating
Playoffs

The only number there that doesn't seem reasonable is the INT's, I'd be fine up to 10.
I was talking more career numbers. If Caleb doesn't break single season records his first few years, that's gonna be a bad sign
Yea, well that season I posted right there would break our all time pass yards number I think?
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9015
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Parts Unknown
Has thanked: 1089 times
Been thanked: 1500 times

One thing to keep in mind is that the Texans had a middlish or slightly above average defense last year.

Ours is supposed to be much better than that.

If Caleb puts up those numbers we are going to the playoffs no question.
Image
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7188
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 434 times
Been thanked: 824 times

dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:51 am We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.
You're taking a huge high end outlier and calling it your floor.


I mean, if you're saying that in the same sense of saying you love when your team's Day 3 picks declare that their goal is to make the Hall of Fame, OK, fine, I guess.
But in the sense of realism, it's not very.
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

Moriarty wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:48 am
dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:51 am We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.
You're taking a huge high end outlier and calling it your floor.


I mean, if you're saying that in the same sense of saying you love when your team's Day 3 picks declare that their goal is to make the Hall of Fame, OK, fine, I guess.
But in the sense of realism, it's not very.
Not really, I'm taking the most recent example and using it as a comparable, not a floor. You can look back 20 years if you want and claim it's an outlier, but the game has changed and guys have more success as rookies than they used to. It's VERY situational as well, and CW has indisputably the best situation for a rookie QB imaginable.

I think those setting lower expectations are sandbagging for their guy in case he flops TBH. He's an elite prospect in an elite situation, expect elite results.
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:32 am
HurricaneBear wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:03 am

I was talking more career numbers. If Caleb doesn't break single season records his first few years, that's gonna be a bad sign
Yea, well that season I posted right there would break our all time pass yards number I think?
Cutler holds the record for career passing yardage at 23443 yards. So Caleb won't break that til his second contract.

In second place is Sid Luckman at 14686 and Jim Harbaugh at 11567. McMahon is 4th at 11203. Mitch is next at 10609 and Kramer hit 10582.

No other Bear has passed for over 10k. If Caleb doesn't break 10k by the end of his rookie contract that's a failure imo.

Career passing Tds you have Jay at 154 and Sid at 137. Bill Wade is next with 68.

Caleb absolutely could be in 3rd place in TDs after his 3rd season. Not being in 3rd after his rookie contract would be a failure imo.
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

Oh I got you, I was thinking single season record
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3706
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 141 times
Been thanked: 232 times

Moriarty wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:48 am
dplank wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:51 am We should set the marker based on the most recent example IMO, CJ Stroud. CW is a superior prospect and is going to a team that has far superior talent than CJ went to, so there's absolutely zero reason why (other than his own performance) he shouldn't match those numbers or beat them.
You're taking a huge high end outlier and calling it your floor.


I mean, if you're saying that in the same sense of saying you love when your team's Day 3 picks declare that their goal is to make the Hall of Fame, OK, fine, I guess.
But in the sense of realism, it's not very.
ESPN did a piece on it it seems https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/insider/stor ... troud-rank

1. Prescott - Key stats: 77.6 QBR, 3,667 passing yards, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 67.8% completion rate; 282 rushing yards, 6 TDs
2. Wilson - Key stats: 74.8 QBR, 3,118 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 64.1% completion rate; 489 rushing yards, 4 TDs
3. Stroud - Key stats: 57.5 QBR, 4,108 passing yards, 23 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.9% completion rate; 167 rushing yards, 3 TDs
4. Roethlisberger - 2,621 passing yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 66.4% completion rate; 144 rushing yards, TD
5. RGIII - Key stats: 68 QBR, 3,200 passing yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 65.6% completion rate; 815 rushing yards, 7 TDs
8. Herbert - Key stats: 62.6 QBR, 4,336 passing yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs, 66.6% completion rate; 234 rushing yards, 5 TDs
10. Watson (7 games) Key stats: 83.7 QBR, 1,699 passing yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs, 61.8% completion rate; 269 rushing yards, 2 TDs
11. Mac Jones - Key stats: 56.9 QBR, 3,801 passing yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 67.6% completion rate

(I updated Stroud's numbers which aren't end of season ones in the article). The ranking is based on DYAR for reference.

Looking at that the Stroud season is less of an outlier than I thought, with Prescott and RGIII also throwing few interceptions. Overall I scan those figures and think we've got better skill positions than any of those teams so something around 3500+ yards, mid 20s TDs and 10 interceptions looks like a reasonable hope (I won't say expectation at this point). Obvs most of those were 16 game seasons.

As few as 5 interceptions seems less likely, similarly above 4000 yards or pushing 30 or more TDs isn't something I'd bet on without good odds!

If you take dplank's words at face value it isn't that Stroud's season is a floor but that it will be down to Williams' own performance if he doesn't match it. My own guess is that he won't but he'll be close enough to be fine and I'd still expect him to become even better over time. But here in the optimism of preseason, I also think that if Williams is even close to as advertised then we could actually see an all time rookie QB season. Again, I don't expect that but with an OC that has at least decent pedigree and experience, an offensive line that should be at least adequate, then the best set of skill position players any rookie QB has ever had... well the table is set!
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

Thx for pulling those stats together! I really believe folks are sandbagging CWs expectations for various reasons I don’t want to get into. You presented a lot of data and in each case those guys had lesser talent around them then CW has around him. There’s no reason not to expect a big year from CW!

Mac Jones 3,800 yards. Nuff said!
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7188
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 434 times
Been thanked: 824 times

The problem here is that the ESPN article (paywalled) isn't looking at a representative sample or a full sample of rookie performances (with certain criteria). It's looking at the best rookie performances of all time. This is THE DEFINITION OF CHERRY PICKING. That's not how you arrive at a reasonable expectation.


Here's a FULL list of of QBs, within selected criteria
  • Top 5 pick - Going too far down becomes less comparable to a 1.1, taking only 1.1s makes for a small sample
  • Last 15 years of rookie seasons - Again, too far loses comparability, but too short loses sample size
Everyone played their rookie season, so no issues there.
I don't have DYAR available and so am not familiar with its quality, either. Therefore, I'm using passer rating and QBR.



tqb_all = all 22 who met the 2 criteria above
tqp_sorted = rough sorting combining PR and QBR
tqb_19 = took out the 3 who started under half the games that season
tqb_11 = looking only at 1.1s who started at least half
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Moriarty on Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7188
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 434 times
Been thanked: 824 times

The average PR and average QBR change very little, whether you use mean/median, or add additional criteria to the list.


The average Passer Rating runs about 79 and the average QBR is roughly 46.5


THAT'S what typical highly drafted QBs look like.
Not what the greatest rookie seasons of all time look like.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

Moriarty wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:05 am The average PR and average QBR change very little, whether you use mean/median, or add additional criteria to the list.


The average Passer Rating runs about 79 and the average QBR is roughly 46.5


THAT'S what typical highly drafted QBs look like.
Not what the greatest rookie seasons of all time look like.
How many of those situations look like the situation CW is walking into? I'll wait...
HurricaneBear
Head Coach
Posts: 2483
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
Has thanked: 2501 times
Been thanked: 491 times

I can't wait until Williams wins rookie of the Year and breaks all the Bears single season records this season so we never have to hear about Stroud again. Especially after the Bears smash the Texans early this season
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12742
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1390 times
Been thanked: 2504 times

HurricaneBear wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:57 am I can't wait until Williams wins rookie of the Year and breaks all the Bears single season records this season so we never have to hear about Stroud again. Especially after the Bears smash the Texans early this season
Yep, and he's going to do it. I just can't understand why people want to put his bar below Mac Jones, are we that afraid of disappointment that we have to predetermine failure? It's just so weird to me. Why are we using historical averages for CW performance expectation when 1) we all know CW's situation is one of the best ever for a rookie to walk into and 2) we all have heard that CW is a generational talent. But we're going to comp him against a 5th round QB in Dak, or the 5th QB selected in Mac Jones? Shouldn't we reasonably expect BETTER than Mac Jones, given the talent level and circumstances?
Post Reply