dplank wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:30 pm
Both felt like bad calls to me, and of course both went in favor of KC. Which is kinda the problem when it happens week after week. Randomness of bad calls is nullified at that point.
But Houston would have lost anyways IMO
It's just not a conspiracy ......Or is this like the Vampires Kiss ? The league wide conspiracy broke up with Green Bay?!?!?? But that was a really solid thought out one!
I didnt really have a ton of issue with either call in real time (And no I dont think Lamar was "6 Yards out of bounds" type of thing either - that just sounds like a Partisan)
Rusty Trombagent wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:54 pm
Warren can be pretty annoying but he's great at data projects like that. I'm "working" so haven't had a good opportunity to dig in.
Cliffs Notes: The playoffs are rigged for the Chiefs
southdakbearfan wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:42 pm
I mean the chiefs right guard got called for a nonexistent hold a couple plays before the roughing negating a huge play to Kelsey.
I’m sure anyone who wants to can find more. The chiefs are on top so everyone just goes against them and thinks it’s rigged.
southdakbearfan wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:42 pm
I mean the chiefs right guard got called for a nonexistent hold a couple plays before the roughing negating a huge play to Kelsey.
I’m sure anyone who wants to can find more. The chiefs are on top so everyone just goes against them and thinks it’s rigged.
I just enjoy the game and watch it.
Honestly , did you read the article?
It’s almost like being a better, more disciplined team is important to winning. You could probably find identical stats if you pulled 3 -4 years of patriot playoff runs with Brady, which ironically I heard the same stuff about the patriots then.
Are the refs out to get the raiders (or whomever it is now) if they are continuously the most penalized team in the nfl? Or are they just the least disciplined team that won’t get the benefit of the doubt on any calls.
Well, that’s addressed in the write up actually. Does seem like you didn’t read it still, cause Raiders weren’t a playoff team. I get that you have a strong held belief that this isn’t real, but the data doesn’t lie man. It’s such a massive outlier compared to other really good playoff teams. I suggest you give it a read with an open mind.
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 9:21 am
Well, that’s addressed in the write up actually. Does seem like you didn’t read it still, cause Raiders weren’t a playoff team. I get that you have a strong held belief that this isn’t real, but the data doesn’t lie man. It’s such a massive outlier compared to other really good playoff teams. I suggest you give it a read with an open mind.
As the piece mentions, not the biggest sample size but the discrepancy is overwhelming and not reproduced for any other "well coached" team. It really does look like there's some damaging implicit bias effects here.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".
I absolutely believe that individual refs might have biases one way or another, but this idea that there's some coordinated bias is what I refuse to accept. The data is sure damning, but I just don't believe that there's some conspiracy between the NFL and the refs to keep the Chiefs alive. If there was, someone, somewhere would absolutely blow the whistle. It would be almost impossible to keep something like that a secret.
I absolutely believe that individual refs might have biases one way or another, but this idea that there's some coordinated bias is what I refuse to accept. The data is sure damning, but I just don't believe that there's some conspiracy between the NFL and the refs to keep the Chiefs alive. If there was, someone, somewhere would absolutely blow the whistle. It would be almost impossible to keep something like that a secret.
This is what I've been saying all along. A collection of biases is giving the appearance of a conspiracy.
Really it's as simple as really good/popular teams are getting the benefit of the doubt nearly every time.
I'm not arguing some deep state conspiracy at all, I never believe in that stuff whether in sports or elsewhere in life. Except for aliens, aliens are real AF.
What I've been railing against is that it's actually happening, regardless of causation. A lot of folks refuse to admit that it's real and happening at all, that's where I push back because it's so plainly obvious and it's backed up by data. They just wave it off and say stuff like "bad calls happen", without recognizing how slanted the calls have been towards one particular team. Rodgers used to get the same treatment in GB.
I agree the most likely answer is just popular teams getting calls - I grew up watching Jordan get calls constantly. But it's absolutely fair IMO for NFL fans to bitch about this as it just sucks seeing it happen over and over and over again. No one wants the Chiefs to win anymore except for people who are die hard Chiefs fans, and this is a big part of why.
It would be pretty funny if KC ends up having like 10 penalties for 140 yards this week and Buffalo has like 3 for 35 or something. I have to believe the league hears the complaints - I just don't know if they actually care.
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 9:21 am
Well, that’s addressed in the write up actually. Does seem like you didn’t read it still, cause Raiders weren’t a playoff team. I get that you have a strong held belief that this isn’t real, but the data doesn’t lie man. It’s such a massive outlier compared to other really good playoff teams. I suggest you give it a read with an open mind.
I did read it, and I think it’s hogwash cherry picked stats. I put the raiders in there as a historical example of many years leading the nfl in penalties and many years of being super shitty.
The last 4 years is a tiny sample size regarding the playoffs as well with teams falling in and out of playoffs year to year.
That being said, You seriously think 31 other nfl owners are going along with hey we need to rig this for the chiefs, because that’s what you are saying. It’s ridiculous and it’s stupid.
The chiefs are good, dominant and everyone else wants to be them. It’s jealousy.
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 9:21 am
Well, that’s addressed in the write up actually. Does seem like you didn’t read it still, cause Raiders weren’t a playoff team. I get that you have a strong held belief that this isn’t real, but the data doesn’t lie man. It’s such a massive outlier compared to other really good playoff teams. I suggest you give it a read with an open mind.
I did read it, and I think it’s hogwash cherry picked stats. I put the raiders in there as a historical example of many years leading the nfl in penalties and many years of being super shitty.
The last 4 years is a tiny sample size regarding the playoffs as well with teams falling in and out of playoffs year to year.
That being said, You seriously think 31 other nfl owners are going along with hey we need to rig this for the chiefs, because that’s what you are saying. It’s ridiculous and it’s stupid.
The chiefs are good, dominant and everyone else wants to be them. It’s jealousy.
I don't believe you read it lol...nor did you read my last post because I just said this and not that it's the entire league rigging it for the Chiefs...
I agree the most likely answer is just popular teams getting calls - I grew up watching Jordan get calls constantly. But it's absolutely fair IMO for NFL fans to bitch about this as it just sucks seeing it happen over and over and over again. No one wants the Chiefs to win anymore except for people who are die hard Chiefs fans, and this is a big part of why.
Really don't understand why this upsets you so much. At this point your very much in the minority if you don't think the Chiefs are benefitting from calls more than other teams are, and your belief defies the statistics that strongly correlate as well. That's fine, believe what you want, but I believe what I see and when the stats back it up so emphatically it's just a no brainer to me.
I did read it, and I think it’s hogwash cherry picked stats. I put the raiders in there as a historical example of many years leading the nfl in penalties and many years of being super shitty.
The last 4 years is a tiny sample size regarding the playoffs as well with teams falling in and out of playoffs year to year.
That being said, You seriously think 31 other nfl owners are going along with hey we need to rig this for the chiefs, because that’s what you are saying. It’s ridiculous and it’s stupid.
The chiefs are good, dominant and everyone else wants to be them. It’s jealousy.
I don't believe you read it lol...nor did you read my last post because I just said this and not that it's the entire league rigging it for the Chiefs...
I agree the most likely answer is just popular teams getting calls - I grew up watching Jordan get calls constantly. But it's absolutely fair IMO for NFL fans to bitch about this as it just sucks seeing it happen over and over and over again. No one wants the Chiefs to win anymore except for people who are die hard Chiefs fans, and this is a big part of why.
Really don't understand why this upsets you so much. At this point your very much in the minority if you don't think the Chiefs are benefitting from calls more than other teams are, and your belief defies the statistics that strongly correlate as well. That's fine, believe what you want, but I believe what I see and when the stats back it up so emphatically it's just a no brainer to me.
Here is what your article said -
While this may look suspicious, several valid explanations explain the delta.
First, it is a tiny sample of games.
Second, the Chiefs have played in more playoff games than their opponents and are thus more accustomed to the stage.
They may not get the nerves that would potentially cause them to be out of place and commit penalties that other, less experienced teams might commit.
Third, they are well coached on both sides of the ball, and well coached teams tend to commit fewer penalties.
And then proceeds off the rails into conspiracy land the like that Stephen a smith and skip bayless love because it generates clicks.
I also didn’t trot out a disgraced game fixing nba ref as some sort of similarity, proof, or reference to it.
Quit simply, the chiefs are really good, really well coached, screw up less than most teams because of this therefore get penalized less.
ok, well, I very much disagree. The data doesn't match your take at all, they are not 10x better coached and screw up 10x less than the other PLAYOFF teams (who are also very good and well coached). You seem to consistently miss that part - the comp was done against OTHER PLAYOFF TEAMS, not scrubs. And even still there is a 10x delta between them and, literally, everyone else - if it was remotely close I could buy your argument. But when the data speaks this loudly, you basically have to cover your eyes and ears not to believe it. The small sample size is really the only valid point there IMO. I brought up the other ref just to prove an essential point that refs do actually have personal bias and that actually does impact how they call games - this is a well known fact, they are humans. And that's not limited to basketball.
Honest question, did you also believe that Jordan didn't benefit from calls throughout his career?
No hard feelings here, genuinely trying to understand something that appears to be super obvious and the double fact checked with data
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:44 pm
ok, well, I very much disagree. The data doesn't match your take at all, they are not 10x better coached and screw up 10x less than the other PLAYOFF teams (who are also very good and well coached). You seem to consistently miss that part - the comp was done against OTHER PLAYOFF TEAMS, not scrubs. And even still there is a 10x delta between them and, literally, everyone else - if it was remotely close I could buy your argument. But when the data speaks this loudly, you basically have to cover your eyes and ears not to believe it. The small sample size is really the only valid point there IMO. I brought up the other ref just to prove an essential point that refs do actually have personal bias and that actually does impact how they call games - this is a well known fact, they are humans. And that's not limited to basketball.
Honest question, did you also believe that Jordan didn't benefit from calls throughout his career?
No hard feelings here, genuinely trying to understand something that appears to be super obvious and the double fact checked with data
Jordan balanced out over time. Early in his career he got nothing, later more. But comparing a sport that plays 82 games a season and may have 40+ “penalties” a game to a 16 game season where 15-20 calls a game is a lot is a stretch.
I’m trying to understand as well, you reference the “data”, but the article says hey this data can all really be explained with variance due to sample size among other things, but if you believe this is happening continue on and then these error filled numbers will confirm it for you. Which is exactly what the article stated in so many words.
Fixing games is not a personal bias, anything out of Donahue’s mouth can immediately be ignored given what he did. His whole line is to make him not look bad.
Like I said, sample size is really the only possible explanation for the extreme outlier other than favoritism. Stars get "the star treatment", this is a well known reality for as long as I've been watching sports - all sports. It's just reality. Sometimes it goes too far, and I think KC is an example of that happening. To think that favoritism isn't happening at all is just bonkers to me, humans are humans. The fact that KC has the biggest stars in the game, and the biggest star on the planet in the stands every week - it's impacting how they call the games and it's a net negative to 99% of sports fans who see it for exactly what it is. Not a conspiracy. Not fixing games. Just plain old favoritism towards the super stars.
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:21 pm
Like I said, sample size is really the only possible explanation for the extreme outlier other than favoritism. Stars get "the star treatment", this is a well known reality for as long as I've been watching sports - all sports. It's just reality. Sometimes it goes too far, and I think KC is an example of that happening. To think that favoritism isn't happening at all is just bonkers to me, humans are humans. The fact that KC has the biggest stars in the game, and the biggest star on the planet in the stands every week - it's impacting how they call the games and it's a net negative to 99% of sports fans who see it for exactly what it is. Not a conspiracy. Not fixing games. Just plain old favoritism towards the super stars.
And I believe people are just pointing out every error in their favor because they are on top and the target, all the while ignoring anything to the contrary even when it happens in the same game.
There is one factor that article doesn't mention. The Chiefs have won their division each year since 2021 and consequently have played at home in 7 playoff games versus just 2 as the visiting team (plus of course 2 Super Bowls). Both those games as the visiting team were last year. The previous two seasons and this season they've had home field advantage throughout their playoff run.
I'd be surprised if visiting teams don't tend to get penalised more than home teams given the advantage of a noisy home crowd (and the Kansas City crowd is known to be exceptionally loud).
That doesn't account for the discrepancies in major penalties but may help explain the overall number which may include a lot of pre-snap penalties like false starts and delay of games. (Somebody with more motivation would need to scour through the game logs to confirm or debunk this suggestion.)
HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 8:40 pm
There is one factor that article doesn't mention. The Chiefs have won their division each year since 2021 and consequently have played at home in 7 playoff games versus just 2 as the visiting team (plus of course 2 Super Bowls). Both those games as the visiting team were last year. The previous two seasons and this season they've had home field advantage throughout their playoff run.
I'd be surprised if visiting teams don't tend to get penalised more than home teams given the advantage of a noisy home crowd (and the Kansas City crowd is known to be exceptionally loud).
That doesn't account for the discrepancies in major penalties but may help explain the overall number which may include a lot of pre-snap penalties like false starts and delay of games. (Somebody with more motivation would need to scour through the game logs to confirm or debunk this suggestion.)
I was wondering about the home field vs away split, as well. I'm sure it'd still not enough to explain it completely, but I suspect it's a big factor. It would also be interesting to see an analysis over the regular season and see how the Chiefs stack up to other teams there. I think that information is more readily available and doesn't suffer from the small sample size bias.
The high rate of subjective penalty calls in their favor just fuels the fire - they even accounted for basic undisciplined fouls like offsides so it shined a bright light on referee bias.
I didn’t even think the Houston game was one of the bad ones lol, but it sure started a backlash
This would have more merit (of which is has very little) - If it wasn't like Conspiracy Ref Theory Number 10. Also which was said - almost literally - we have the data!
The Chiefs also have the player on the Offensive Line with the highest accepted penalty number in football for 2023 and 2024 (Granted he was only the 3rd highest in all of Football for 2024)
Here's a fun thread from Barnwell from earlier in the season (Not that it will change minds......Facts/Logic don't tend to work well on disproving conspiracy theories)
We better start the conspiracy theory that the nfl is out to help Joe Burrow all the time as he has had more interceptions called back (non offsides) via penalty than anyone, and that the nfl is against Mahomes because he has had more touchdowns wiped off the board due to penalty than anyone since 2018.