The Kmet Konondrum

[spudbear]

What's up with Cole? Or should it be down? He was one of the few pre-Poles playmakers still on the team, good enough to earn a contract extension. He's had a couple of good games this season but many more where he's essentially disappeared. The Bears could count on him extending drives when he would make a reception short of the first down marker and bull his way forward. This would have been helpful the last few games but was not employed. I have a couple of theories, and it could be a combination of them all.

1. Caleb not seeking him: With 3 needy WR's going out on routes, Kmet is typically a last read or maybe a safety valve. Just not enough touches to go around.
2. Protecting Caleb: With no FB and Swift not known for his blocking support, they've had to keep a TE in to help in protection. Has not seemed to make much of a difference.
3. Waldron's curse: The attempted implementation of a bad offensive scheme combined with a radical change in blocking has led to a bumbling offense. Simplifying the blocking and routes has not helped as the damage has been done. It will take an offseason of work to undo the mess.
4. Nobody pushing him: Everett was a bad pickup and Methuselah Lewis is running on fumes, so the Bears have nobody pushing him.

That last point is probably furthest from the truth, as Cole seems to be a good player and puts in the work. I also don't believe that he's mailing it in now that he's been paid. It does bring up a point that the Bears are very weak at TE. Will they need to use one of their top 4 picks on a TE? Find an effective FA? They need to get some young talent in the pipeline. Having a good TE opens up another option for an offense.

[Moriarty]

I think it's some of 1-3


I'm not sure that Everett is done, but with his bad contract***, he's certainly done here.


* 10th highest paid Bear in 2025, can save 5.5/6.5M by axing him.
** Who the fuck pays a backup TE 6M/yr? And who thought it was bizarre at the time? viewtopic.php?t=18104


A pretty good, deep year for TE in the draft

[Xee]

Maybe this is just some kind of memory bias, but in the past few games it seems when he does get a ball thrown his way, he's had uncharacteristic drops, most recently that 2 point conversion. I always thought he was one of the more reliable catchers.

[dplank]

If we move on from Allen, which I believe we should, I bet Kmet's targets go way up as Keenan is eating up a lot of the short/safe stuff that otherwise would go his way.

Or, if we want to "Darnell Mooney" the conversation, doesn't the logic boil down to "We changed QB's so clearly the QB is the problem here"? J/K....but for those who held that belief on Mooney I do hope that you see how off that thinking is when using a different player.

[Burl]

Not saying he’s been super impactful, but dude is the least of our concerns.
Although I’ll point out that I wanted Bowers in the draft and he was available when we picked Odunze.

[southdakbearfan]

Definitely not a conundrum.

[wab]

It’s two things.

1 - Waldron’s bullshit
2 - His targets are going to Allen

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Maybe this is just some kind of memory bias, but in the past few games it seems when he does get a ball thrown his way, he's had uncharacteristic drops, most recently that 2 point conversion. I always thought he was one of the more reliable catchers.

Pro Football Reference credits Kmet with just one drop, but the 2pt conversion one wouldn't be counted.

Production-wise he's on for a fairly typical season. These are the numbers from his second season and what he's on target for this year:

2021: 60 catches for 612 yards (10.2 ypc) and 0 TD
2022: 50 catches for 544 yards(10.9 ypc) and 7 TD
2023: 73 catches for 719 yards (9.8 ypc) and 6 TD
2024: 55 catches for 586 yards (10.7 ypc) and 4 TD

His offensive snap count percentage is currently the second highest of his career, so it's not that he's seeing the field less:

2021: 83%
2022: 94%
2023: 77%
2024: 86%

The key metric is the number of targets he's been getting:

2021: 93
2022: 69
2023: 90
2024: 65 (projected)

There have been 2 games this season where he hasn't been targeted once and 2 more where he's been targeted a single time.

This is despite Caleb Williams being on target for a franchise record number of pass attempts:

2021: 542
2022: 377
2023: 513
2024: 570 (projected)

So it's all about the way he is being used. Does the Bears offense ever have Kmet as the primary read? How far down the progression is the TE usually?

As for other TEs, Tonyan was signed last year on the back of some reasonably productive years in Green Bay (52 catches for 586 yards and 11 TD and 53 catches for 470 yards and 2 TD either side of an injury shortened 2021). Everett also had some history of production (5 consecutive seasons with over 400 yards). Both have barely been used.

Waldron had a reputation for deploying 2 TE sets a lot in Seattle so we expected him to do the same in Chicago. It didn't really happen and in the 4 games since Brown took over Everett's only played 21 snaps in total while Lewis's snap count has remained broadly the same at between 10 and 20 a game.

The Bears haven't maximised their TE talent that's for sure. What will the next head coach have in mind?

[RichH55]

If we move on from Allen, which I believe we should, I bet Kmet's targets go way up as Keenan is eating up a lot of the short/safe stuff that otherwise would go his way.

Or, if we want to "Darnell Mooney" the conversation, doesn't the logic boil down to "We changed QB's so clearly the QB is the problem here"? J/K....but for those who held that belief on Mooney I do hope that you see how off that thinking is when using a different player.

Wowzers. Still not Fields fault....unreal.

I thought we admitted mistakes - guess not.

Putting aside the WR group is better and that Caleb is a Rookie. The yards aren't crazy off (TDs are down) - and you can shade that in part on Waldron (the Everett signing is just a fun thank you from him) for the first couple of games (plus Kmet actually didn't start one game!!!!! Insert Tev defense here)

But hey - We got to weirdly apologize for Fields....so we met our Quota!!!!

[Grizzled]

How about just f*ing accepting that the team does much better when he gets 7 to 10 targets per game?

[spudbear]

Is the relationship between Williams and Kmet broken? Some have said that Allen is hoovering up the throws that Kmet would ordinarily get. You see Allen sitting next to Williams on the sideline during the game. Williams did throw to a TE ... Everett.
Whoever comes in as HC is going to have to fix this problem between Williams and Kmet. Kmet should have be an occasional safety valve when the Seahags were blitzing.

[dplank]

Kmet overrated

[Otis Day]

Hard to tell when they don't look his way.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Kmet overrated

How can you tell when they don't even target him once?

[wab]

Kmet overrated

Nah. The offense is broken and he’s not even a part of it.

[karhu]

Kmet overrated

On the one hand, I agree. On the other hand, he's competent at some things, which puts him in rare company.

From where I'm sitting, the idiotic gameplanning (possibly encouraged by the awful play design and playbook) is likelier more to blame for Kmet's quiet stretch than any interpersonal stuff. We're just not running plays that give TEs anything to do but (try to) block. Aside from a couple of downfield throws to Odunze--who's back to playing slot for some reason--we just didn't run any plays that a TE other than George Kittle could've done anything with.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Kmet and DJ seem to have fewer targets this year

[Moriarty]

Kmet and DJ seem to have fewer targets this year

Kmet is down from 90 to 53, his lowest since his rookie season.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Since Flus was fired Kmet's been targeted 3 times in 4 games.. Oh and he's caught each one.

In 2 of those 4 games he wasn't targeted at all.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Since Flus was fired Kmet's been targeted 3 times in 4 games.. Oh and he's caught each one.

In 2 of those 4 games he wasn't targeted at all.

The whole offense is broken. What an absolute waste of a fucking year for Caleb and the rest of the offensive roster.

[G08]

Since Flus was fired Kmet's been targeted 3 times in 4 games.. Oh and he's caught each one.

In 2 of those 4 games he wasn't targeted at all.

The whole offense is broken. What an absolute waste of a fucking year for Caleb and the rest of the offensive roster.

I dunno man, I think Caleb has progressed from Week 1 to Week 17. At the very, very least he has experienced NFL defenses, coverages, etc and has an idea of what he needs to do this off-season to get better. (I'm trying to find anything positive lol)

Jared Goff had a different HC and OC in year two.

Justin Herbert had a different HC and OC in year two.

Jalen Hurts had a different HC and OC in year two.

Trevor Lawrence had a different HC and OC in year two.

Lamar Jackson had a different OC in year two.


Not ideal but not all is lost!

[dplank]

Since Flus was fired Kmet's been targeted 3 times in 4 games.. Oh and he's caught each one.

In 2 of those 4 games he wasn't targeted at all.

The whole offense is broken. What an absolute waste of a fucking year for Caleb and the rest of the offensive roster.

Caleb will be much better in year 2, in retrospect he needed more seasoning than anyone here realized. But the talent is clearly there and he learned a ton this season. That will multiply with some improvements in OL and scheme. So I don’t see it as a wasted year so long as we make the necessary adjustments heading into to next year.

[G08]

Guys, think about it... Caleb needed more seasoning than anyone here realized, and through 16 games he put up the 5th best season of a Chicago Bears QB EVER!

Behind an offensive line that has given up the most sacks in the NFL!!

QUARTERBACKS SACKED 65+ TIMES -- SINGLE SEASON (NFL HISTORY)

Caleb------------------------------------------All Others
19 TDs / 6 INTs--------------------------52 TDs / 54 INTs
87.4 rating----------------------------------73.5 rating
212.1 YPG----------------------------------162.8 YPG

Hall of Fame incoming!!!

[RichH55]

The whole offense is broken. What an absolute waste of a fucking year for Caleb and the rest of the offensive roster.

Caleb will be much better in year 2, in retrospect he needed more seasoning than anyone here realized. But the talent is clearly there and he learned a ton this season. That will multiply with some improvements in OL and scheme. So I don’t see it as a wasted year so long as we make the necessary adjustments heading into to next year.

Largely fair post - Though many (If not most) people cautioned the overoptimism with noting he's a Rookie and that CJ Stroud Rookie years are extremely rare (Even 2nd year CJ Stroud wasn't as good as Rookie year CJ Stroud)

But the overall LARGE point I agree on you with (at least for this post where its the best version of your posts) - It's adjustments that are needed, not a complete rebuild

But yes by all means lets go and get a Vet Guard

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Hey, Kmet's collecting accolades...

[dplank]

That’s great. Would love to see him earn an on field award though TBH

[HisRoyalSweetness]

That’s great. Would love to see him earn an on field award though TBH

[RichH55]

Cole Kmet is a good TE.

Feels odd to need to state that

[Moriarty]

Cole Kmet is a good TE.

Feels odd to need to state that

He's a pretty good receiver.

I sure have been underwhelmed by his blocking this year, though, even if that isn't his prime attribute.

[dplank]

My main complaint as well. On several important plays that got blown up by blocking issues, I've noticed that Kmet was the guy either getting beat or, more often, just not blocking the right guy or even anyone